Member Info for pauldrayton

Agree JEBR, volumes have not been low. Every rise has been accompanied with much higher than average volume which is encouraging.

It feels to me like accumulation in anticipation of events to come next year. Of course FID is the key but there are clues about what’s happening/going to happen and some want to get in earlier than others.

Agree Tincan. Whilst I appreciate everybody has their own individual strategy and price targets, having believed in the NFB for so long it would be painful to sell now and let others take the lion’s share of the gains should it all go ahead.

Desire was the dream.

Rockhopper is the reality.

Interestingly, despite the recent increase in share price which has been accompanied by an uptick in volume, as things stand only Aedos Advisors own more than 3% of the company (they have circa 8%).

No other party has declared a holding of more than around 19 million shares. If Sea Lion development does get approved by Navitas then I think we will start to see institutions wanting to take more substantial stakes in the business.

It won’t be easy though, and although of course there will be shorter term traders willing to take profits or even break even after a long time in the red, I reckon that having waited so long for development, many shareholders might now wait until at least first oil. And right now it’s us who own the business. We (collectively) decide where this share price goes. Are you willing to sell? Are there better opportunities elsewhere? If not then it’s going to be a tough ask for institutions to build significant stakes.

The DCF method, as stated recently by Navitas, gives Rockhopper a value of $1.4bn or £1.1bn for Sea Lion development alone.

That’s a share price of £1.73.

I suspect this has a long way to run over the next 12 months. The share price has been suppressed for a long time because the market didn’t believe Sea Lion would ever get developed. That’s starting to change now.

Colin Phipps deserves a lot of credit for his part.

NB. “The British Geological Survey has pointed to the highly oil-prone nature of the Falklands source rock, estimating the north area of the islands alone contains some 60 billion barrels of oil.”

60 billion barrels. Of course it could be more or less, and not all of it will be recoverable, but the source rock is prolific and exploration has only just got started.

If (and it’s a big if) Rockhopper can make it to production whilst retaining 35% (or close to) of their licenses without being taken out then they have every chance of becoming a multi-billion dollar company. That sounds a bit rampy, but the scale of what they currently own probably exceeds the wildest dreams of even the most optimistic of shareholders.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/swansea-raised-oil-man-colin-phipps-2063333.amp

It won’t just be Sea Lion & Isobel either. The NFB contains a series of stacked ‘pancakes’ - there will be dozens, if not hundreds, more discoveries to be made. Some will be smaller than Sea Lion & Isobel, some will be bigger, but oil fields don’t exist in isolation. Whilst everybody is getting excited about Sea Lion development (and rightly so after all this time), there is a much bigger picture too.

Sea Lion really is just the start for the NFB and if Navitas can get it into production then there is so much more to come.

The OWC was not found at Isobel and that’s the key to how big it is. It’s likely to be a very large resource but could be gigantic. I’m sure Navitas will want to stick a drillbit in the Marlon Sump before too long.

He sounds pretty confident to me.

Sounds like the man has a plan and is determined to get Sea Lion in production.

Next 6-12 months should be very interesting. 2025 will be a defining year for Rockhopper whatever happens.

Nice little Santa rally on good volumes.

Still needs to close above 22.5p to confirm a breakout imo.

Some chunky trades today.

Just low volume today. Taking a breather. The markets in general tend to get quieter over the Christmas holiday season.

I don’t think this recent SP movement has anything to do with ‘imminent’ news. Whilst the market is often short-sighted, there will now be some looking ahead 6 months and there is a very real chance that Rockhopper will have a fully sanctioned Sea Lion project and enough money in the bank for their portion of development costs. There are very few players with large holdings in RKH, and it will become even harder to get them after FID (assuming it’s positive). It’s a limited time therefore to build a stake at what are still very low prices compared to the potential.

Still probably lots of ups, downs and manipulation along the way, but hopefully this is the start of a general upward trajectory.

Rupert Lowe as PM would be a vast improvement.

Late trade 550k reported. Probably what was keeping it in range today.

Good end to the week, let’s see what next week brings.

Santa rally?

Garbled we don’t need constant updates of the IG spread. We all have access to the share price.

Haha, I’m not that good at darts unfortunately!

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