The state of play.....13 Sep 2024 12:52
So, this is where we are now as I see it.
HE1 must submit the ML application by next Tuesday.
They may or may not RNS this but if they do it may or may not contain any more information than we already know, and it may or may not contain the word ‘commercial’.
If they RNS and say ‘commercial’ anywhere within that we all expect the SP to rise, but no one knows what it could rise to. My guess – and it is only that – is that it could spike to anywhere between 1.4p and 2p. No one knows.
It will then likely fall back because as we know it could be 3 months before it is approved, or not of course. In either scenario news could come sooner or later than 3 months. It could mean 3 months or more of SP drift.
We do know they are fully funded until mid-25 with regard ‘keeping the lights on’ and we also know that if the ML is granted, they will have to go JV or debt or sell out for Itumbula to move from discovery to production. HE1 have their own rig so could still oversee ops and drilling the development wells as part of a JV, similar to what Blue Star have just done with HE1.
What we don’t know is if Blue Star will progress as expected, what the actual revenue from that will be and how that might affect the HE1 SP.
For any LTH with an average anything over 1p this is going to be a nervous wait.
Good luck to us all.