Member Info for papucel

EU has used a lot of AZN's management time to solve their public tantrums and to find a scapegoat to avoid the questions from the countries why the contract was signed .

EU in spite clarification that the EU vaccine production is fully dependent of the drug itself which is produced exactly in the countries which shouted lowder Italy and Germany:
“For Europe, the drug substance is essentially produced in two plants, one in the Netherlands, one in Belgium. The drug product is actually produced in Italy and Germany. So from a drug product viewpoint, we have full capacity. We have zero problem. The current problems have to do with manufacturing the drug’s substance,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/astrazeneca-ceo-pascal-soriot-interview-on-supplies-to-the-eu.html

Wouldn't have been more productive to work with AZN management to recalibrate the Belgian production facility with the supplies from IT and DE (it is a very big question mark if the belgian yield is low because their facility or due to the quality of the substance received from the countries which threatened most) rather than wasting so much time on running brexit over again?

Stile, I fight with the same dilemma for few months now, should I stay or should I slim down my position. OXB almost brought me to madness as the CEO has a ostrich strategy and the stock was going down at no news and down also at good news.

Then I tried to put things into perspective and I looked to the most absurd statistic (I thought) I plotted Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B on AZN for the past 5 years to try to convince myself to slim my AZN position and reinvest it ... I had a hell of a surprise AZN=BRK. If AZN managed to get a 5 years performance as the most stable US fund, Buffet, maybe the management has to be given the credit to set the product span in line with the latest technologies.

The argument which I thought will talk me out of AZN got me back to the square 1. I start to suspect that I may have fallen in love with AZN and got Stockholm syndrome.

Toff, Indeed the naked shorts had been made illegal yet Cohen & Co found a way to have > 100% of shares shorted.

We have to make a clear distinction between naked shorts (without any docs) and highly leveraged one which Baff and myself were talking about.

The reason I chose to step away from the industry is that there is absolutely no connection between the fundamentals of a company and these products, the algorithms are making predictions on the same criteria as a casino game. When one take a sit at a casino table it has t hand over the cash and get the chips to play, yet on the stock market it had been created a set of products traded by people who do not own what they are trading.

These products are called in the industry "synthetic products" because they can not exist in the real world. Example the endowments misleading the customers that an unsecured investment has the same risk as a secured one now illegal, pension funds funds sold as low risk but piled in a multiple aggregations into highly risky ones now illegal, the swaps had been deemed illegal as even the traders could not explain to their clients what they are. Te bankers have been very good to market these products as bringing "benefits to clients" while in reality they make the fees and the clients take all the risks.

The industry have not learned anything from 2008 when it was not enough cash in the institutions to close the positions. Now they exploit the governments to back them up while we the tax payers have to pay in lost pensions and taxes. It is heartbreaking that these extremely complex synthetic aggregations they are not set up with a purpose to help the economy running, make jobs but to extract money from valid business positions. Ex: if a struggling company is heavily shorted not only that it projects a negative image on the company and it is harder for the management to execute a recovery plan, but if they need loans to do a turn around the interest wold rocket which makes the company doomed to fail.

The example I generally give to people when I explain these synthetic products is like the bankers take customers money they hold in one pocket, several times a day, move them in the other pocket and every time they do they they take 1$ as charge there is no business/ economic value in it .

Below is a link with the tremendous damage created by these synthetic products and how already started to affect all of us and it will for the next few months.
https://fortune.com/2021/01/28/gamestop-hedge-fund-losses-steven-cohen-dan-sundheim/

Lets pray that business with strong management will get through this period reasonably unhurt

A short is a sign of mistrust - nothing wrong with it

However selling something one does not have is another matter, it creates artificial volatility and artificial sell signal in the market for the longs.

In the case of GameStop the no of Sell Shorts were 130% of the float. It would be hardly any argument that this would be healthy.

Contrary to Chris you won't be able to tell me that I don't understand the market as I used to program exotic derivatives. Well.... I can assure you that it is nothing healthy about, these complex multi positions algorithms are based on "sequential probabilities" say the hedge funds, but in plain words it is gabling.

It is nothing more toxic than that as a genuine investor is caught between a Hedge fund long position and at the same time using its holdings for sorts. Surely you hears that in 2008 Goldman Sacks were playing on both sides of the court, no conviction in their funds just 2 opposite stories and who ever came across would fall for one.

The tragedy is that these complex positions have been developed by people not understanding the markets and the one who do are incapable to understand the maths behind. Look to Anton Kreil dozens of videos - A trader who lost his job training totally uneducated people to do shorts on stocks they don't care about, with the only purpose to make money through confusion. The internet is full by so called "experts" who have an army of followers who short on good news ...

If there is a lack of interest in a stock the holders should drop it, but selling something one don't own in law is fraud. Packaging it as a "product" is for those who don't understand the mats behind: "false supply". Sorry to disappoint that the short sellers are the needed angles on the Exchange.

Bigmac12 I am so so grateful for clarification. This was exactly my dilemma comparing the financial to the posts . I was similarly caught into a crash of OXB so therefore I asked those perceived "silly" questions.

Some of you pointed the stock going down at no news or even good news. I can assure you that it is not only on SNG; BAE Systems signed some large contracts, everyone was expecting a 3% up and it went 3% down to our shock. I went shortly on GameStop movement with a share KOSS. On those boards people with no understanding of either products, financials or strategy behave so hysterical and erratic that it is scasy, therefore I went out and the price crashed few h larter. What I found out is that among these "hysterical retail traders" is a mentality to trade the stocks down on good news to confuse the long traders and make them sell. This may be an explanation why so many stocks trade down on good news.

Another thing I observed on SNG similar with OBX which had 50% major hedge funds in, they had no interest to stay long so as soon as the stock went reasonable up they pulled out. I see 50Mil pulled out in a very short period. Unfortunately the HF artificially push up prices, it could be seen when the price goes up disproportionate with the number of shares transacted.

I was on Proactive Investor 10 years ago and burned on Fastjet even that it had an amazing business case and Stelios on board, therefore overcautious, sorry if I stressed anyone.

The good thing is that FT assess the lowest SP 505 and the median 744, the product has a high potential and the CEO is highly active. If any of you want to see all transactions on a day https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SNG/synairgen-plc/trade-recap

I will get on with my research to see the cash run rate until the next announcement.

Thanks everyone for the links and suggestions. My existing portfolio is only on FTSE 100 cos so this is a start for me to look into co without similar financial track records.

I am at a loss wish to understand the sarcasm I triggered with a genuine question on a board which I assumed was to share info; investing in AIM is very different so I have to start somewhere.

I will have my weekend full, thanks again for the helpful posts

I found your Chat from the AZN board.

Looking to your points I can't figure about anything as you are experts and I don't know anything about this company. I looked to their financials and I really can't see any connection between the fundamentals and the 1%K in crease in the SP. I looked to the major shareholders and some major movements out.

Please tell me what it is special about SNG to sustain its SP and if it is too late to buy .... Silly me

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/eu-approves-astra-oxford-vaccine-for-all-adults-amid-shortfall

... Lets see

Toff, I had been through your dilemma few times around without any success. Yes the valuations are frustrating, but they have embedded the dividends which in US are 1-2%.

My struggle is if I could cope with Tesla and AirB valuations which on the paper are fantastic but psychologically I can't sit on them because I can not make any sense how Musk will sell a car for 1.5 mil to even get break even. I researched many US companies but I don't dare to adventure myself in the US market as the fundamentals and the prices are in reverse ratio as in UK far too high for what they are.

My only comfort is that in a crisis the UK co will fall into their fundamentals while the US one have no fall back positions it will be a free fall crash as Wells Fargo.

I don't know how to solve this dilemma UK vs US investments so if you find some solid arguments please enlighten me as well as I opened a $ account but I don't dare to jump on the US shares

I heavily watch Bloomberg - it will be interesting for you to watch it as well to see the level of bias against AZN and the push of the US products so C19 turned into a political/ proffit battle. If AZN is supplied at cost US corporates don't make money . Their CEO's are constantly on Bloomberg as money talks.

US tantrums don't help either as the politicians seem to make the most ridiculous statements to cover their procurement errors. It is sad indeed....

Lets trust that the management do their best as they did in the past 10 years .GSK down as well 2.3% , BA Systems 2.7% so it looks as a capital outflow rather than AZN issue

TR64 you really don't get it that people here are not either or I have investments across the whole pharma range.

You are inherently toxic and feed through antagonism, looking for sensationalism and drama to get attention. Your mind is in a sad dangerous place . . You really need some professional help as your neural connections seem to be significantly biasly apocalyptic for a stock which bit FTSE 100 for the past 10 years.

Unfortunately I have to block you from all my boards as you do the same to AZN on the GSK board. So you realise that you are in an psychologically compulsive obsessive downspin?

Sheungy "During the trial there is an argument they did not include enough over 65s" - Do you have any idea what argument was it?

Sir, to be able to prove "misleading" one has to prove clarity of the situation and deliberate intent.

If one don't know what you don't know at any given point of time it can not be ruled for. I read all the statements made by AZN and at the time they were valid.

TR64 - I get exhausted of your psychotic sensationalism. If you would have ever worked in a multinational company on a senior position you would have known that there constant legal challenges which one has to deal with.

it is absolutely NOTHING in the text you submitted to prove intent

TR64 Are you really so desperate for attention that you would rather embarrass yourself just to get some?

TR4 you managed to confuse me even more, what do you try to say; that you want AZN to fail and they deserve deserve to fail? Have you looked to their distribution strategy? Are you aware that in the last 10 years AZN bit the FTSE?

Why are you here to convince the rest of us to sell?

Have I missed anything or EU lost their mind. Is AZN C19 vaccine approved yet for emergency use in EU ? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca-ger-idUSKBN29U2D9 Reuters claim that it want be approved, whatever sensationalism they may want to convey.... But how can one threaten a court case that AZN export to other countries something they haven't approved yet?

I am born in the wrong era as I don't understand anything anymore

you may want to see Dawson's interview at the London Stock exchange Conf I sent the link previously

https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/OxfordBioMedicaUnitedKingdom/events/aeb42947-0e7d-4a7f-aee0-d4abec6760bb

isn't Uk an US state? :)

not if they will be reputation and legal implications which have longer impact