Member Info for papucel

There have been outstanding contributions here re reasons of the current state which I collated:
- Poor management (split, PR, media, pipeline, etc.....)
- Signs of shorting "permabear"
- Dividends schedule aggravate negative volatility
- UK investor more interested in parking funds in houses, Strictly Come Dancing and Great British Bake off then in investing
- US money busy with crazy valuations and not interested in unsexy US stocks

The 1M question is: what is the way out of it? By Jan 2022 IF SP is 1290, with div I will be making a slight profit and could go out of it.
Should I? Would I? Would you, then what?

So, if I do understand right your message TR:
- you are not invested in AZN but you like to "rattle "about AZN on both boards
- you are invested and upset about GSK (as all of us here are for various reasons)
- you think that you have the right to "rattle here on these 2 boards" unrestricted
- your proposal is that I should hit the filter button and you could continue to "rattle" the rest of the people here

TR64, since I started here I haven't seen a single positive, neutral or even balanced post from you re GSK & AZN

Enlighten me please, are you a holder and why, or you are just here to tell us how gloom the future is and we should drop them.

lave a look to Lockead Martin - same . It is the industry not the co I think. Not sexy enough.
https://www.google.com/search?q=lockheed+martin+corporation+share+price&oq=Lockheed+Martin+Corporation+share+price&aqs=chrome.0.0.7321j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

YamR1man if it may be for any comfort, plot GSK against FTSE 100 for the past 10 years, it may give you some confidence that time may be your best friend.

Toff, You are right, adding dry sense of humour would top it; right as always

Fat, forget about spelling errors substance is more important than form. I do lots of them yet apart from a single comment in the past from one who believed that having English as fist language and spell it right is a sort of intelligence superiority no one here made any degrading statements about spelling errors from not being the native language or dyslexia.

I tried green tea, thanks for suggestion, not working for me I will stick to whisky, I may drink all the profit given the length of time I have to treat myself.

What is happiness ... To be or not to be ...

This board is the best experience I ever had, constructive, well documented debate, only a couple of disrupters who were addressed and streamlined, support when one is down, paced with facts when one gets overexcited, full of technical knowledge and most importance practical experience.

When I believed it couldn't get any better ... it came Fats question of what happiness is, putting things into perspective, then Baff reply, outstanding

This is was the best line to keep me going for the next 2 years until the split.

It can not be topped, or couldn't it?

This is obscene
2021-02-19T16:35:11.477 GBX 1,215.2 3,340,163 40,589,661 UT XLON
2021-02-19T13:40:51.223 GBX 1,225.6 2,600,000 31,865,600 Off-Book XLON TNCP
2021-02-19T17:44:37.000 GBX 1,225.6 2,040,874 25,012,952 Off-Book XOFF
2021-02-19T10:15:17.377 GBX 1,217.2 748,881 9,115,380 UT XLON
2021-02-19T15:51:03.023 GBX 1,215.5 404,873 4,921,353 Off-Book SINT BENC TNCP
2021-02-18T18:43:17.000 GBP 12.4 400,000 4,967,424 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP
2021-02-19T16:41:38.783 GBX 1,219.1 353,567 4,310,265 Off-Book XLON PRIC
2021-02-19T08:00:12.977 GBX 1,225.6 159,178 1,950,886 UT XLON
2021-02-18T17:57:01.000 GBP 12.4 92,325 1,143,792 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP

Did it became a take over target? unusual high transactions. This amount of money can not be floated on exchange in one day .

VS same day one month ago only 34 mill, 400% less
tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType
2021-01-19T16:35:26.787 GBX 1,410.40 2,025,366 28,565,762 UT XLON
2021-01-19T16:42:36.130 GBX 1,411.89 100,000 1,411,890 Off-Book SINT
2021-01-19T16:36:30.810 GBX 1,410.43 100,000 1,410,425 Off-Book SINT TNCP
2021-01-19T08:00:14.587 GBX 1,404.40 81,975 1,151,257 UT XLON
2021-01-19T11:43:52.930 GBX 1,414.80 23,200 328,234 Off-Book XLON
2021-01-18T17:31:06.000 GBP 14.00 22,220 311,080 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP
2021-01-19T17:07:27.000 GBX 1,410.50 22,134 312,201 Off-Book XOFF TNCP
2021-01-19T15:55:07.000 GBX 1,411.60 20,986 296,238 Off-Book XLON
2021-01-19T16:13:51.750 GBX 1,408.83 20,000 281,766 Off-Book XLON
2021-01-19T10:15:27.297 GBX 1,413.00 18,905 267,128 AT XLON ALGO

Someone is buying big I think... who and why may be? Any thoughts?

Fat, thanks for sharing a wider perspective.

Looking to the patterns the Shorter's business model is to take out value from the long term investors and some times irreversible damaging their toys as mad dogs.

AZN & GSK are the perfect targets as only 21-24% of ownership is institutional so the rest 76% + could be easily intimidated and there are a lot of them apart from a small number of hard core retails investors as here.

Well, the shorters managed to scare away quite few in this round BUT looking to their business model that need more fish to fry so I would expect at one point to put the algorithms in the opposite direction to pump the stock up so they could short it again. If they will let it flat for 12 years would mean to decrease their span of action which would not be in their favour.

So.... my assumption is that at one point SP will go 5-6% high to recruit new naïve investors to abuse them as well. How wrong could I be?

This board turned into an amazing vehicle of exchanges of ideas and constructive good debates.

Could we arrange for an MBO to take over from the management as I think we could do a better job to connect with the rest of the shareholders and the world :)

denby69, I didn't say "stock markets are casinos" because if they would be than one would have a chance in the normal distribution approach which is not the case.

I said that in my test hypothesis research I didn't find any significant different behaviour between NYSE & LSE BUT I found evidence that the speed algorithmic trading create toxic volatility which one here said rightly, maybe Toff, that a % drop of 1% of the shareholders is inflicted on the 99% of the rest is exponentially aggravated by the algorithms which exacerbate trends disregarding fundamentals on bots markets equally (slightly more here).

Another statement was made on this board which I tested is that these toxic gradient driven algorithms could in long run hit a company beyond recovery, and I could see cases. I followed for months BAES which is down 9% and seems not to recover; the assumption was as some here that IT is NYSE vs LSE, to find that Locked Martin is in the same situation. The reason i still stick with them is that I believe in a bigger picture of political will which my turn them around.

LGEN was in the same situation when it was the Supreme Court ruling that the insurance co have to pay for Covid19 claims I assumed that the stock will go up vs the industry as LEGN sold its small business claims unit few years back and didn't have any exposure meaning better performance than the industry. Guess what it fell more than the industry. Same pattern, good news turned into shorting.

I disposed half of LGEN at a little loss, worth the fun. The bigger question is now what? What co would I trust not to be attacked?

Re GSK is I get out it will be 9% loss which I have no issue to wait for 2 years, but as Fat may have said these persistent down trends may affect companies value in long run.

I am conflicted and look for a crystal ball

This board is an amazing debate ground with a wide span of views and info. I had been quiet for few days not because I deserted you but because I wanted to test some of the assumptions put across here. I was bias to believe that it is a market bias SP behaviour so I disposed some UK shares at break even point and went on NYSE to test this assumption.

The findings have not been the ones I expected at all:
1. Valuation - I found companies in exactly same state as AZN, GSK, BAEs, great embedded value but battered down. So BAE vs Locked Martin which has an amazing board, ex army combat, financial services, PR/ Political engagement backgrounds, everything one would dream off. After results meeting expectations, 5 years guaranteed income so the results could be only outperform yet battered down.

2 - Ex div/ div payment NRG fall 4.5% - same as on LSE.
3. - US growth - many comments were about the latest US SP growth. I checked about 30 companies with very high SP increase and looking to their financials, to their "sold story" and potential market/ future performance I could have never take the decision to buy them as it doesn't make any sense at all. They look like a classic pump and dump cases yet to be proven. So yes a high profit could have been made with computers algorithmic trading on the exacerbated trends, HF exiting and leaving the retail investors trapped in.

So based on the tests I run, the problem is not LSE vs NYSE, but much much bigger than that, it is systemic, the collusion is not any more as in the past HF making phones to set prices nut the computers do it themselves as they could calculate gradients when to get in on the uptrend and when to get out. So yes there are some extraordinary valuations on some NYSE co but one could wake up to find the SP collapsed that the HF decided to get out their cash to pump and dump another target. It loos so so much 1990 same old thing again.

I would recommend to see Cliff Scott Aness, AQR interview on Bloomberg, one of the Wall Street unicorns who chose to close half of his funds down and sack his employees than going on these trends even that he was one of the first in US to build algorithmic trading models.

Toff, you made a very good, comment SPs are smashed at good news. There is a trend, look on YouTube or even on any "free trade" type of platforms the millennials with the the FB "lets disrupt everything " mentality building position to trash SPs at good news.

On absolutely none of the 30 co I looked at I could not have invested in my right mind, it could have been done only with enormous computer power to calculate second by second if still to stay in or get out. For a retail investor there is only an outcome - to get burned. So while it is debilitation to stay in AZN, GSK, BAS IF one believes the strategy is sound then the 3-5 years trend will be upwards.

Anyone free to make ones own mind on it

Good reporting Fat !!! Thanks :)

Nice to see that some have courage; I am frozen can't get out, cant stay in .... Maybe I should get to the dentist to give me some courage :)

YamR1man Please don't get depressed !!!!! look from another perspective in the past 10 years AZN beat FTSE 100 and God knows how much PR they got with the vaccine especially in far east where India is using it as a political weapon to win over USSR and CCCP.

Only 3 weeks ago it was 7900, I take it as the mad US investors put the money in Bitcoin and companies which don't have a sustainable story.

This is a tangible asset investment and with inflation you have a piece of the company, what would you do with the money in the bank and would you invest in AirB given that the legislation is around the corner to limit their operations?

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger

I am invested in BAES for the principle where I see the world going and co fundamentals rather than knowledge of the operational details.

Something got my attention, that the SP goes down even at good news BUT it is heavily invested by major funds 33% more than AZN & GSK only 22%

Any thoughts o this ?

Toff indeed good call as the bets were casted before the market opened (not time wise but when the spread is released in the market)
2021-02-17T08:05:43.587 GBX 2,630.0 347,076.0 9,128,099 UT XLON
9 mill of inflicted damage, I will check after hours how many shares have been bought back which I assume close to 347K as always.

I wish I would have known this before GSK

Marquess R I follow religiously the major shareholders, it is not only the holders which is important but also the movers
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=GSK:LSE
and unfortunately for GSK the outflow is much larger than the inflow.

Another remarkable thing is that in a bazar way UK large pharma inclusive AZN are underinvested by large funds only ca 21-24% while other co BAE 33%,, MRW 50%, OXB 48%, USB 32%, LMT 42%. The issue with GSK in my opinion is that it is too much free float and too many people to be intimidated to sell - heaven for shorters.

Some here decided to sell at a loss, every day I swing to do the same or not with different arguments. I cant find the tipping one to take me one side or another - any thoughts appreciated .

This is one of the most well spoken, knowledgeable, constructive chats I ever seen. Each of us works with a set of criteria which each of us based our experience believe that may have merit and importance in SP movements.

To make it a bit more interactive, I can take bets how much would GSK in one month 17.03.21?

My bet 1200 - Anyone else in the game? I can keep the betting board :)

What it keeps me sane is that at work I had been through a demerger which from a management perspective it is a nightmare on the other hand it is a fantastic opportunity to cut several layers of management and to increase the focus and the responsiveness to market demand.

Of course the market don't like that the question is hoe much intimidation could the funds inflight on the retailers and it is a lot as about 78% are small holdings. The HF are as sharks with small fish flying around . Yes temporary other shares would give better returns but at a higher risk.

So my arguments to keep my sanity are
- I experienced the benefits of a demerger
- this the div is secured, the future one is technically irrelevant if the new vehicles are much more in demand - the tech shares don't give any div
- what else I can do with the money at the same level of risk
- inflation, lots of printed cash, this is a piece of asset
- yes the price may go down even for 2 years but ne of the two new co may be taken over or even both

Happy to hear contra arguments to the above points