Member Info for papucel

I guess we have to start to be nice to each other, as we will be Stuck in the Middle between EW & CS for the next 2 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPxMP_2A0Ks

I am on AZN and GSK on which had been some malefic forces in the last 2 months. It seems that it has been heavy shorting even on neutral and good news.

I will watch closely to see if this madness will hit BAE as well making SP to fall at a good or neutral news which will be infuriating.

re Pokerchips "over the pond.. they still fighting over it... they cant seem to make their mind up whether to be bulls or bears today !" Right

I started to constantly watch Bloomberg to observe how market US news effect LSE. Yesterday was an interesting day it started with "The unemployment rate in the U.S. has fallen to 6.3%, but Powell and other top economic officials have pointed to a figure that suggests the jobless rate is actually at 10%. There remain close to 10 million out-of-work Americans compared to February, before the crisis began." https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-chairman-jerome-powell-congressional-testimony-feb-2021

US funds started sharply to move out of Growth/ Tech SP Tesla dropped 6%, Microsoft 3%, Apple 2.5% in minutes after the statement which was expected from the day before. Same time I could see a massive inflow in BAE which was still for 4 months, GSK started to go up as well as other SP I have.

Mid day Powel realised the shock on the WS and made a secondary statement that FED will support growth and you could see all the SP which fell over night before Powell's testimony in the senate.

So it looks GSK has a very high correlation with US cash if would better be "parked" and sexier in US or UK stocks. More I look into numbers more I see the smoke and mirrors of the trading vs investing. The HF can not now move to buy GSK because they hold over inflated BS and they don't have a "story" on GSK to move cash on.

In conclusion IMO, as all here agree in a certain extent the current GSK situation is partly due to the management issues, other to opportunistic shorthers as well as what US cash consider that it will be "trendy" to report.

The question is if today GSK will fall back today given that Powell gave reassurance that he will support US growth. I realise now that as much as I can blame EW for performance management this issue is actually IMO the lack of PR.

I am mind blow that Tesla had not delivered a "autonomous driven car across US" which was pledged in 2017 yet when the SP fell 5% of some hedge fund's fear of overvaluation others moved in and brought it back. The point I try to make???? PR seems to be much more important than anything else which the US is much better than UK co.

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
"I have an underweight holding" - what are you the FTSE index ?

Great point made with amazing sense of humour CSDI1962, I couldn't stop laughing .

This Board Fat, Toff, CHEATED, usually_right, Pokerchips, TR, Garydav2, denby69, Dunnieboy, CSDI1962, Spikeyj and everyone else I didn't mention (sorry) had been amazing under the psychological abuse of the shorters and mng incompetence, Knowledgeable, fact driven, documentation provided, constructive debate - agree to disagree, philosophical of times, dry humour even poetic about the stars . :) :) :)

Drinks on me in Central London when 14. Anyone?

not what I have expected, the price moved up without a significant money inflow very small transactions so far vs other days
2021-02-23T08:00:05.783 GBX 1,205.40 181,682 2,189,995 UT XLON
2021-02-22T17:34:23.000 GBP 12.05 155,644 1,876,133 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP
2021-02-22T17:55:51.000 GBP 12.16 152,320 1,852,354 Off-Book XOFF N TNCP
2021-02-22T18:30:49.000 GBP 12.11 49,000 593,572 Off-Book SINT N

Fats & Toff , I need your and everyone else's brilliant brains on this :)

Nasdaq if falling on its sword, energy and defence pick up only a fraction, where the money could be "safely parked"? Could it be in AZN & GSK?

Some of you are on the GSK board where it was lengthily discussed LSE vs NYSE listings.

There is a sign of arbitrage between the markets but I can't put my finger on, so I would appreciate any thoughts:
YOY AZN LSE -7% AZN ADE + 1%
5 Years AZN LSE +80% AZN ADE + 80%
10 Years AZN LSE +150% AZN ADE + 100%

This can not be explained by exchange rates. Any thoughts?

We have debated here so many points that we are at risk to just go in circles. Let me get to another train of thought, knowing what we know now, and even that we all may disagree on particular details, technically we all on the same page.

The question is When GSK SP would reach at your break even point of entrance + div, would you drop it an move on or you will stay until the split and why?

Enfin, unfortunately this
" TR64 My question was simple. A simple response was expected. Your response yielded no information and less civility." is his trademark and he was suspended for it before.

Fortunately, it has been an improvement lately so hopefully it will get better in time or end the same.
Enfin, bear we us here, as this is the best board you would come across, amazing helpful people with lots of ideas agree to disagree, providing insights and fact based info. As a new investor I would recommend to read at least 10 - 15 pages back as you will find amazing Infor about factors and dynamics which influence GSK SP and you will also get quicker up to speed.

Cheers,

TR64 please clarify "I have liaised with GSK investor Relations and Non execs, due to how the CEO CFO failed to tackle Credit Suisse and I don't accept a directors selling shares in a closed period trying to use lax regulations saying its for tax liabilities."

I wrote to Emma, Iain the FD about the dynamic of the dividends, to the Vice-president media and @investors.; Twice . BUT Iain changed his email address so he couldn't be contacted from externally and I got no reply from the rest.

"Liaise" may indicate a form of double way communication - of course I need clarification of your use of "liaise" rather "write to"

Have you got an answer from any of them ? From whom and what ?

may be of interest

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-warns-stock-market-huge-risk-crashing-2021-2-1030106969

TR64
please clarify "I have liaised with GSK investor Relations and Non execs, due to how the CEO CFO failed to tackle Credit Suisse and I don't accept a directors selling shares in a closed period trying to use lax regulations saying its for tax liabilities."

Thanks

TR64 please clarify "I have liaised with GSK investor Relations and Non execs, due to how the CEO CFO failed to tackle Credit Suisse and I don't accept a directors selling shares in a closed period trying to use lax regulations saying its for tax liabilities."

Thanks

YamR1man yes AZN sorry of course, I just switched from the other board

Did you have a look?

Montecristo, no need to get upset nor to leave this board as more brains together, better it is.

If you meant that some stocks in FTSE have enough volatility to make profit, the it is right, but this is a different argument. Even for GSK or AZN if one would enter now it may be valid in 2-3 years, absolutely right but none of did foresee that it would go so low. Your point, like that is valid.

The dilemma how we ended in such a mess and if I look to the drop after the announcement of the split it is a fraction 1773 to 1626; some of the extra drop could be partially to poor management and pipeline, however the rest seems to be artificially induced and the question is if we can find the timing/ catalyst of recovery and if it would be a good decision to exit of to stay. July 1917 - Jan 2018 similar massive drop, yet recovered. and got higher.

This is not logic anymore it is a psychological war. The funds will be back NOT because GSK will perform better, but because the money have to be parked somewhere safe for a period and they could scalp the fresh unaware investors who get in now and then leave again. IMO

As on said here there are two options, either don't check the computer for one year or get in and out... Victorian values are gone :) :)

CHEATED , it may be infuriating on one side, however the most important is to find the right timing and catalyst for an exit or hold it longer, whatever it may fit.

"We need a proper management system here that can battle with the London Stock Exchange and sack a few dunderheads there who do not know what is going on in the rest of the world with Pharma shares." is quintessential. Too much focus here on Emma when actually the movements in Pfizer are even more acute, unpredictable and steeper Sept 19 25% drop for 2 months up again for less than a month; June 20 another 25% steep move down and up again none of the cases are justified by major events just capital movements.

CSDI1962 kindly gave investing.com link where in the factor analysis could be seen the Momentum, VolumePrice I, Vortex & Capital index. All trading is driven by the capital inflow battle then outflow at the end f the day. Unfortunately GSK has a high % of small investors so a lot of damage could be inflicted.

I am looking to offload half of my holding the other half I will keep it to the split. I do expect a capital inflow in the next 2 months as keeping the SP low it would reach a point of resistance where it wouldn't make sense to sell so not in the interest of the shorters. I am watching the capital inflow now ignoring as it is the only driver of SP and hardly rational.

It will be good if we all here could focus our energy and collective intelligence to find solutions to our issues rather than pointless unpleasantries.

Thanks for sharing CHEATED as it is reassuring to know that I am not alone.

M, your statement was "ftse has not gone anywhere in 20 years" 1999 to 2021 = 22 years equal value numbers provided
1989 to 2021 = 37 years which is 68% longer . So your statement should have been :
"I understand that FTSE went nowhere in 20 years but it went somewhere in 37 years"
Kindly stick with facts and statistics rather than your personal opinion of what intelligence would be or not.

"ftse has not gone anywhere in 20 years" is factually correct while its negation is not.

Toff :) :) you are better than that :) Statistics one line

Monte: FTSE 100
10 Dec 1999 = 6,739
19 Feb 2021 = 6,629

Because I had been at work through a successful value creating demerger, for me the jury is still out about the demerger strategy https://uk.investing.com/stock-split-calendar/ as many co pursue it (ignoring the PR disaster). While I found some evidence of NYSE/ LSE different SP treatments, there are a lot of solid stocks on NYSE treated equally bad LMT.

patxd raised a fundamental question, does medium term investing make any financial sense anymore in this new world of techno trading?

To my surprise I found https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=PFE:NYQ Pfizer look to the 10 year trend, SP at the 2015 level without Madame Emma's help and without the split. You can do your own research and you could find a lot more on NYSE.

While it is easy to blame Madame Emma as she is in our face, and an easy emotional target, the problem seems to be systemic, the world of steady investment is gone.

This post is cathartic, I was in AZN significant profit but haven't sold for ideological and moral reasons of a long investor. Have I convinced myself with all the analysis that there is no medium term investment any more, just trading?