Member Info for notaflipper

It depends if you think that the euphoria over the last few days of CEO leaving will continue today as the market is red or it will buck the trend and whether all the bad news is out there or more will come in advance or at the AGM next Wednesday. With a new CEO and management team you would expect them to get all the bad news out in the next week and so move on from there. Just a question in my mind if still the worst is known.

https://www.yourgene-health.com/infectious-disease

Having not benefited from the massive rerate that has benefited the COVID-19 companies we now seem to be stuck whilst the recovery passes us by waiting it seems for a breakout which never comes. With many novice investors seemingly to have traded well buying anything with a COVID sticker and now recovery stocks.

alwayswinning agreed

Persons Discharging Management Responsibility (PDMRs) i.e. the company statutory directors in this context cannot deal when they are in possession of price sensitive information, i.e. information that when released to the public is likely to have a material impact on the share price of the stock in question.

Question is what will happen interim with no news and whether the COVID merry-go-round will go especially with the focus now moving too recovery stocks

New COVID-19 testing service page added. Apologies if this has already been shared.
https://www.yourgene-health.com/services/laboratory-services/manchester/covid-19-testing-service-manchester

The COVID day traders are doing the merry-go-round. Today's flavour is ODX which is gone up by nearly 40% today on no news but the expectation of an antibody test. Similar rises in the last week with AVCT on an antigen test. Hopefully our day will also come. It is a very confusing and frustrating picture when a stock like TUI has doubled since Friday at the same time that one hears of mass redundancies in the aerospace and hotelier industry. It seems we are worried to go back to school but not on holiday. Kind of says it all as to what investors think is the likelihood of a second wave, a second lock-down and imminence of a vaccine cure. Which again is at odds with the some expectations.

The narrative in the market today is focusing on recovery stocks due to the news over the bank holiday weekend of Europe opening up without the need for quarantine and over here of non-essential shops opening up by mid-July. So if you look at TUI, CINE, AIG, HOME etc they're all up and in a big way. Whether this is the start of a real recovery depends if you believe a second wave and separately a second lock-down will come.

The comparison to GDR is a good one. NCYT is moving away from PCR testing due to supply issues with PCR reagents. AVCT, despite the incredible market capitalisation, would still need CE-IVD accreditation and has no track record in test accuracy compared to PCR testing accuracy. However Genedrive's 96 SARS-CoV-2 Kit is also a PCR assay test with 100% sensitivity and 98.2% specificity.

In terms of missing the boat GDR's test has only received its CE-IVD marking on the 22nd May so YGEN is roughly 1 month behind as GDR will only begin commercial sales in June. Some would point out that with NCYT that YGEN is actually ahead as it is already producing manufacturing components as part of sales. Others would point out that YGEN has already an established distributor network with 300+ labs.

There are issues related to Brexit tied with taking state aid from the UK Government. You see in the event of a No-Deal, which can still happen, AIG would still like to have access to the Common EU Sky by claiming it was an European company despite being 1 half of British Airways. If it takes UK state aid then this would have an impact in a No-Deal scenario.

https://www-telegraph-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/24/french-court-orders-insurer-pay-restaurants-business-interruption/amp/

I believe that there should be some further guidance in the daily news briefing on how to open the economy and country. Suggestion that quarantine period will be 3 weeks. Not sure how this will be policed

To be fair most economists are talking of a L-shaped recovery or at best a Nike swoosh. There was quite a good interview with the Chief epidemiologist of Sweden on Hard Talk which has taken a much more open approach than the rest of the world. There they have not focused on the infection rate but on the total deaths believing that building resilience in the community reduces the total deaths overall.

Specific to the UK one has to ask what is the point of a traffic light system if not to communicate the approach of further lockdown or modify the general population behavior. Here the strategy hasn't changed much from the original with waves of peaks, lockdown and release till a herd immunity is developed with now testing potentially creating a two tier structure with immunity passports via an app.

As a business owner I will be frustrated over the weekend seeing how we will be able to go to the beach but not the office on Tuesday. I'm also inclined to agree that globally the deaths from COVID-19 are dwarfed by the continuing deaths from malaria, HIV and road deaths. Yet now this Project Fear has terrified people to such a degree that they don't want to take their kids to school or meet their grandparents. How then are people expecting airlines to recover sooner?

With an incubation period of two weeks we should see the 2nd peak following the relaxation in the beginning of June. I suspect the traffic lights will then be referred back to suggest why lockdown be reapplied hence awaiting for the double bottom to invest. Probably wrong and for society's sake I hope so.

With respect to the trading pattern it seems a daily swing pattern is forming. Bit too early to know whether this is an channel or down.

This is one of the many recovery stocks (Homeserve another example) which I have on my watchlist. I missed my entry circa 170p and glad for investors that it's recovered. I agree with the long-term outlook however also standing on the sidelines for now to see how it plays out over next week. This has a long way to recover and plenty of time to re-enter. The main recovery has been driven by some optimism over finding a vaccine and relaxation of lockdown. This euphoria can and will quickly dissipate with the inevitability of a second wave and lockdown around July. Also some of the positivity of a vaccine cure seems to be driven by the drug companies trying to pump their own shares for funding. I am reminded that there is still no cure for the common cold which is similar in structure to the Covid-19 virus. Also that it took 30 years to eradicate small pox. Hence I too share the hesitancy. Probably they'll be a sustained rise to 300 now I've said it and delayed.

As mentioned latest video release
https://twitter.com/Yourgene_Health/status/1260880322255781888
Tick, Tock, Gggrr

I suspect with Novacyt's output of 10m tests per month there probably is something in it for us given that it is the first thing which you see on their website. Weakness today on lack of clarity and news-flow has been general turbulence among COVID stocks with MMs taking full advantage. The announcement by Roche of a 100% accurate antibody test has obviously affected some stocks like ODX but surprisingly affected other stocks like Avacta which produce antigen tests as many AIM investors do not know the difference between a HAD IT and HAS IT tests. Elsewhere rainbow chasers have been taking their funds to put into Immurpharma (a past profitable investment) which has announced being able to use their Lupuzor treatment for COVID-19. I suspect though here some investors have perhaps will get caught out not understanding the process of Phase II and Phase III trials. Aside from that the fundamentals and known facts and expected news remain the same as for most of last month. As this stock has showed resistance at these levels hopefully this will hold now that seller has moved on. Beware the Oracle lol

They are wishing to spotlight each of their products and service areas. So they've done Contract Manufacturing and NIPT. They still need to do Pharmocogentics, Reproductive Health, Cystic Fibrosis, Oncology, Bioinformatics and Partnership Development. Hence the suggestion. What the motivation is, is anyone's guess. There was a mis-step in my original post which is the main reason for replying to correct that it may be a mixture of tweet infographs and videos. Even if you value engineer and go via Fiverr commissioning these videos is still pretty expensive. I do hope they do not go down the route of other AIM companies like UKOG and confuse tweets with an RNS.

Have a good weekend all and hopefully a restful one in these troubled times.

Novacyt Final results are on Monday so I suspect there's been some profit taking there over the last few days which perhaps may have dove tailed with the lack of news here. It will be interesting to see what happens next week. There will be I think half a dozen more twitter videos dropping over the next few days which perhaps is a countdown if one is hopeful. Certainly quite a bit of investment on PR videos, which I do personally know the cost of making, at a strange time. But once again one can only be hopeful and see. I do hope that the next communication does clarify the point raised by "pwjustdoit". With both my spread betting firms the Bid has been pretty stable at 17.9 over much of the week with the Ask still showing 19p though with intermittent weakness so never making it profitable to swing trade or find a corresponding quote with a retailer like Halifax. Let's hope for some news either directly or some mention with a manufacturing partner.

Commentary on the 100,000 tests per day seems to a red herring. Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and NHS trusts in England, has said circa 800,000 people who work for the NHS would need to be tested around once a week. With the WHO saying that those who've been affected are not completely immune from infection again this means that an antibody test is not enough to exit lockdown. With circa 800k health workers that's 3.2M tests per month for NHS staff alone.

With respect to YGEN the most important thing from the last Novacyt RNS was their announcement to remediate the current reported global shortfall in extraction reagents required to perform PCR testing through the development of a new "direct-to-PCR" extraction method, Exsig™ Free. This would be used prior to running the Company's COVID-19 test. This will remove the need for scarce reagents used with magnetic beads and remove the current bottleneck in sample processing for laboratories. Expected launch of new extraction technology in May 2020. Key will be who their development partner has been in developing this new laboratory process and impact on those whom have been supplying these PCR reagents.

Other oncology products should be expected this year however sales figures would be characterizing lacking for market evaluation.

I would be very careful of posters who advise that they have direct access to those in the Company or have direct knowledge of background developments.

Good article which explains the scale of the manufacturing exercise underway to produce test kits and how demand is too much for just one provider.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52276836

When reading it please note sections which relate to reagents supply. These are the critical components that are being supplied by Yourgene.

The WHO approval is for emergency use listing. It means that the tests can now be supplied by the United Nations and other procurement agencies supporting the COVID-19 response. The different tests suit different labs. For example the genesig Real-Time PCR Coronavirus (COVID-19) (Primerdesign, United Kingdom) is an open system more suitable for laboratories with moderate sample testing capacity, while the cobas® SARS-CoV-2 for use on the cobas® 6800/8800 Systems (Roche, United States of America) is a closed system assay for larger laboratories.

With respect to Thermo Fisher they received the CE mark in the European Union for its diagnostic test to detect nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 on the on 26th March 2020. In addition to receiving the designated approvals in the U.S. and E.U., Thermo Fisher's diagnostic test has received the designated approvals in Canada, Singapore, India, Australia and New Zealand. So in short they have already the requisite approvals and do not emergency use listing