Member Info for notaflipper

Noted, accepted and corrected Ivyspivey and Skittish:

Alderley Park IS closer to Manchester and in Cheshire than my previous assertion that it was near Sheffield.

Clarky,

Citylabs is based on a joint venture partnership between Manchester Science Partnerships, the UK's leading science and technology park operator, and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, the UK's largest NHS provider Trust. So there's no need to speculate as there are existing links with the Company. Also as confirmed by the Company they are already in the process of expanding its laboratory capabilities to support the NHS in COVID-19 laboratory service testing. The PHE Virolgy (not Vialogy VIY as my spellcheck keeps on suggesting lol) labaratory has a surprising small capacity of 150,000 samples (300,000 tests) per annum. So I would also agree that they would have to get significant support (probably) from YourGene for the testing.

My other observation was just some genuine confusion on my part as theire was signifcant interest across different LSE boards of the press articles on TF however when I was reading it the connection with wasn't that obvious however I hope it soon will be.

lol
The Virology Department referred to is the Virology department of the Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust. However hope you're right given my holding. With a workload capacity of 300k tests per annum I would agree they will need support.

https://mft.nhs.uk/the-trust/other-departments/laboratory-medicine/manchester-medical-microbiology-partnership/opening-hours-clinical-advice-and-results-line/virology/

My main interest in on the TF test, whether this is being rolled out in UK, and its relation to the Novacyt test as the technological base is very similar however they have referred to their test as being in-house developed by Applied Biosystems. Theirs is the more ambitious target of 5m tests per week and who is involved in their supply chain.

Short answer is no.

The 3 mega test sites are Milton Keynes, Glasgow and Alderley Park (which is near Sheffield). The commitment to PCR testing is revealed by they being referred to as ‘Lighthouse Labs’ where light is actively used in PCR testing.

The 10 PHE sites for laboratory testing can be found here
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-guidance-for-clinical-diagnostic-laboratories/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-who-to-call-to-request-laboratory-testing

For Manchester PHE will use Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust. That said it is still a case of waiting for clarification by PHE and the Company. YGEN has existing links with that NHS hospital and it could be, or not, that they will supply the DNA amplification service to them.

Although Novacyt holders have been referring to the Thermo Fisher articles I am confused whether the test that is being referred to is the Novacyt's Primerdesign or Thermo Fisher's Applied Biosystems TaqPath COVID-19 CE-IVD RT-PCR Kit which recently got FDA approval and also was approved for in vitro diagnostic use throughout Europe. Thermo Fisher has said it currently has 1.5 million tests available to ship under the emergency use authorization or EUA label and expects to quickly ramp up to reach 2 million tests per week. The company expects to scale production up to 5 million tests per week during the month of April. The available tests will initially be distributed to about 200 labs in the U.S.

Similar to waiting for clarification on whether an extension to services to Novacyt there also needs to be clarification as to the support that will be provided to Thermo Fisher's COVID-19 testing, both within Europe and in the US.

Well observed Trek.

For those that are unfamiliar with the technology the link below shows the workflow.
https://www.yourgene-health.com/images/iona/c-labs/S5_workflow_image_2.png

Qiagen produce a product called QIAsymphony SP/AS which is used in the IONA workflow to extra DNA which is ultimately sequenced in the TF's ION Chef or ION S5 sequencers. Essentially this acquisition is an example of ThermoFisher buying up the vertical supply chain.

The major suppliers of sequencers are Illumina, ThermoFisher and Roche. The value of the sequencer market is ten-fold that of the NIPT market. However products like NIPT CE-IVD influence which platforms laboratories purchase for their sequencers. Premaitha now YourGene had based their technology on the IONA platform in order to set themselves up as a potential TO target from TF down the track. However this prompted a very painful legal battle with Illumina who could understand the strategic threat this had on their core business. Post their legal settlement YourGene now are on the cusp of delivering an IONA CE-IVD test which works on the Illumina platform. So in some countries YourGene will sell the Illumina version and in some the TF version. They are the only NIPT CE-IVD provider capable (soon) of doing this. Hence the excitement by other posters on this rather than the COVID-19 revenue stream.

In some ways the best analogy is that of a mobile phone app which used to only work on one platform now being able to work on Apple (which if you look into Illumina they're similar to in their strategy). Although YGEN has diversified into other product areas this is essentially the chess game that LTH of NIPT invested into. The main question is with an increasingly diversified product stream, potentially including COVID-19 tests, plus the imminent Illumina IONA test how long does a third-party await.

Well observed Trek.

For those that are unfamiliar with the technology the link below shows the workflow.
https://www.yourgene-health.com/images/iona/c-labs/S5_workflow_image_2.png

Qiagen produce a product called QIAsymphony SP/AS which is used in the IONA workflow to extra DNA which is ultimately sequenced in the TF's ION Chef or ION S5 sequencers. Essentially this acquisition is an example of ThermoFisher buying up the vertical supply chain.

The major suppliers of sequencers are Illumina, ThermoFisher and Roche. The value of the sequencer market is ten-fold that of the NIPT market. However products like NIPT CE-IVD influence which platforms laboratories purchase for their sequencers. Premaitha now YourGene had based their technology on the IONA platform in order to set themselves up as a potential TO target from TF down the track. However this prompted a very painful legal battle with Illumina who could understand the strategic threat this had on their core business. Post their legal settlement YourGene now are on the cusp of delivering an IONA CE-IVD test which works on the Illumina platform. So in some countries YourGene will sell the Illumina version and in some the TF version. They are the only NIPT CE-IVD provider capable (soon) of doing this. Hence the excitement by other posters on this rather than the COVID-19 revenue stream.

In some ways the best analogy is that of a mobile phone app which used to only work on one platform now being able to work on Apple (which if you look into Illumina they're similar to in their strategy). Although YGEN has diversified into other product areas this is essentially the chess game that LTH of NIPT invested into. The main question is with an increasingly diversified product stream, potentially including COVID-19 tests, plus the imminent Illumina IONA test how long does a third-party await.

Apologies for the typos, still on the mend myself.

Novacyt's COVID-19 diagnostic tests developed by Primerdesign is an "antigen" test. It tests whether you have the virus and not the symptoms. This is important to alert individuals to self-isolate in the first place to stall the spread.

Another typo I would like to take the opportunity to correct is...
"Both tests are complementary as even if you have had the "antibody" test you will STILL need to take the "antigen" test to prove that you do not have the virus if you are asymptomatic." This has been the example in the Philippines.

Correct.

There are two types of tests (1) antingen; and (2) antibody.

An antigen test detects the presence (or absence) of an antigen, not antibodies. An antigen is a structure within a virus that triggers the immune system's response to fight off the infection. It can be detected in blood before antibodies are made. So it tests whether you have the virus before you have symptoms. An example of the antibody test is Novacyt's COVID-19 diagnostic tests developed by Primerdesign which YourGene has already confirmed via RNS they are supporting the PCR DNA amplification and potentially extending their involvement for the full test. YourGene's labs have already the equipment to support PCR testing hence this is the logical option.

An antibody test can detect if a person has had coronavirus before and has since recovered. This is important for example to test if self-isolating NHS workers can return to the front-line. An example of this anti-body test is being developed by MERC and an example from another Chinese provider had 3.5m home-test kits of these were bought by the UK government today.

Both tests are complementary as even if you have had the antibody test you will STILL need to take the antibody test to prove that you do not have the virus if you are asymptomatic. These tests would need to be repeated throughout the year however if you had the virus you will develop a "herd immunity".

The event was falsely advertised as a YourGene webinar when it wasn't. Key message from the Hayden Jeffries, Operations Manager for me was that the throughput can be managed without impacting BAU at present and that there was no mention that the BAU orders had been impaired so there was less demand which helped to accommodate this. I suspect that the trading statement will be delayed till all backroom developments are finalised unless they opt not to include a forward looking statement which could change potentially significantly, potentially shortly. We shall know all soon though.

I would agree with your hypothesis that the presentation seems to be done for a separate audience and added to the website in order to that the communication was available to all shareholders. Why was it produced? For whom and what purpose? Will it be issued formally next week via Walbrook or an RNS? Who knows. I believe a Trading Update is potentially due with Finals later this year. Although I do not expect breakeven to be achieved, perhaps with a shortfall of circa £1m+, I also believe now events have taken over this obvious frustration and will be discounted with other news within the next month. The scale of demand for testing, which remember will have to happen repeatedly, for the rest of the year combined with the inevitable CE-IVD award for the Illumina NIPT IONA test means that this will be achieved within the 1st Half of 2021. With the £2.5m equity raise and £2m Adgenix purchase there is already working capital avaliable. I suspect the £1.4m earn out fee for the Adgenix staff is linked to the market development in Francophone countries that is also alluded in the presentation. Although Adgenix have 16% French NIPT market share and the NIPT market there is expected to grow by 30% in the next 5 years, the £1.4m earn out fee seems high if this was the target.

Novacyt was sub 20p in January 2020, now close to breaking 200p, however they are already reaching their in-house manufacturing capacity of 4m tests per month. The UK alone could easily utilise 2m of this capacity on the target of 100,000 tests per day. So there'll be an inevitable overspill for someone, somewhere. The other question which investors must remember is YourGene's more diversified portfolio range and being the only CE-IVD NIPT test provider for both ThermoFisher and Illumina platform, in addition to potentially more larger role in COVID-19 testing. The stock was always identfied as a potential TO target by Illumina or ThermoFisher and its now more of a question as to how long they now await and what the sp will be once they make their move.

That said I believe the past disappointments, deliberate mis-steps and emotional narrative were excellently summed up by the last post of monica69 <https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/monica69/>

I appreciate that we have spoken much of Novacyt in this post however I think newbie investors should also estimate the expected demand for the new Illumina IONA NIPT Platform test which is expected to be significant. These two product announcements, gaining CE-IVD approval for the Illumina IONA NIPT test and expanding its role to producing the complete COVID-19 (albeit at lower gross margin to Primerdesign) should result in marked sp appreciation accordingly.

For newbies struggling to understand the narrative of Vialogy (VIY) to Premaitha (NIPT) to Yourgene (NYGEN) and the complexity of the NIPT and COVID-19 testing market please see the Company Presentation that was issued in APRIL 2020.

https://www.yourgene-health.com/images/investor-relations/Yourgene_Health_Overview_April_2020.pdf

This presentation should cover some other questions raised on Market Outlook given that there has been significant changes from the last Company report. It is surprising that the presentation was not alerted via Walbrook or a RNS so perhaps it has been published earlier by a web developer....I would save a copy.

The Illumina IONA NIPT test should allow YGEN to have an increased share of the NIPT market estimated to reach USD 7.3 billion by 2024 from USD 3.9 billion in 2019, at a CAGR of 13.5% during the forecast period. The reason why is that that these NIPT test s run on platforms (Roche, Illumina or Thermo Fisher) with Illumina having 70% of the platform distribution. So similar to a mobile phone app which previously was on BlackBerry now being available on Apple you should see a similar revision of past sales forecasts.

The rate of exponential growth in demand is demonstrated by Novacyt from 27 February 2020 having sold over £0.93m (€1.1m) of CE-Mark Pimerdesign tests and research use only (RUO) tests. To then as of 27 March, Primerdesign selling and receiving orders for over £17.8 million (€19.6 million) of its CE-Mark and research use only (RUO) COVID-19 tests. As of 27 March, Primerdesign received its largest single order to date of £1.4 million (€1.5 million) from a new customer in India following emergency use approval of the test on 26 March 2020. Its COVID-19 test is now selling to more than 80 countries and the Middle-East is becoming the strongest selling region, with orders of £1.6m (€1.8m) received in less than two weeks. The Company expects to sign further distribution partnerships during the next few weeks in this region and also expects to update on its progress in the US market following Emergency Use Authorization granted by the US Food and Drug Administration announced on 23 March 2020. Its COVID-19 test is now being used by the Health Service Executive in Ireland and orders for £1.1 million (€1.2 million) tests have been received. Primerdesign has also signed its first major distribution agreement for the COVID-19 test with Brucker to supply the test to two Asian territories outside mainland China with initial sales anticipated to be £2.1m (€2.5m) during the first six months of the agreement. It is expected that the first sales under this agreement will take place in March 2020.

Simply put however Novacyt has now reaching its maximum manufacturing capacity.

Its manufacturing partner, located in mainland Europe, BioType Diagnostic GmbH (BioType). BioType, based in Dresden, Germany, is scaling-up manufacturing and the first batches of product have been delivered to Primerdesign's Southampton site for final assembly. The level of output contracted with BioType, which, combined with the capacity from Southampton, will enable the Company to produce more than 4 million tests per month.

As to the test Public Health England (PHE) is evaluating the test in a formal evaluation process, which is expected to conclude next month. In the interim Novacyt is now supplying more than 21 hospitals across the country. Its test though covers 1,700 known variations of COVID-19.

As to the expanded demand Novacyt is purchasing additional raw materials to produce a total of 18 million COVID-19 tests. It is difficult to pin down the cost of the test due to the sensitivity of private companies looking as if they are profiting from the crisis but I believe they go for $550 – $1,000 (heavily caveated however).

As mentioned the manufacturing capacity is no way near enough for the demand and in addition to BioType scaling up it is inevitable that Yourgene and other 3rd parties will benefit from some overspill.

Originally posted on MERC board as NCYT board is just way too crazy and gives me a headache.

The Rapid Antibody-based Test or Immunologic method determines the presence of an antibody after a person exhibits the symptoms. It provides a result with limited certainty and is not used to confirm the coronavirus disease. The reason why is because the Rapid Antibody-based Test only determines the presence of antibodies which only shows after infection. It could give a False Negative result in asymptomatic persons.

The Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) Test determines if a person has a virus even before the symptoms occur. The RT-PCR Test however determines the exact virus before a person show symptoms.

The controversy referenced in the Robert Peston interview was that False Negatives can give an incorrect result wherein an infected person is declared to be negative to the disease. False-negative test results, where patients are told they do not have a condition when they actually do, cause several problems. Patients may be turned away from hospitals and medical facilities when they require care. They may infect others at home, work, school, or in the community. Patients' conditions may also worsen without treatment.

Such was the case with Dr. Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist who first identified the outbreak after unknowingly treating an infected patient. He was hospitalized, testing negative for coronavirus several times before eventually receiving a positive result. Dr. Wenliang passed away on February 7 in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

PCR (polymerase chain reaction) try to reduce the statistical chance of False Negatives through amplification of genetic material of interest.. What this is in layman's speak is a technique used to make numerous copies of a specific segment of DNA quickly and accurately. The polymerase chain reaction enables investigators to obtain the large quantities of DNA which they can then use the COVID-19 test on.

The Rapid Antibody-based test kits are only applicable to all persons who are showing symptoms of coronavirus after 5 to 21 days. It will not give the correct results to persons without symptoms. As so the Rapid Antibody-based test kits are complementary to the PCR tests to evaluate if a patient is already free of coronavirus infection after undergoing the required 14-day quarantine after he or she was discharged from the hospital. Person with positive results using the Rapid Antibody-based Test need to be isolated and samples will be taken for RT-PCR testing. It is only when the PCR testing registers positive that the person will be declared a COVID-19 case.

So in short both tests are complementary depending on whether you wish to prioritise people returning to work or be forewarned that someone has the infection (but no symptoms) and should self-isolate.

Think there is some confusion on the science so just some background.

The Rapid Antibody-based Test or Immunologic method determines the presence of an antibody after a person exhibits the symptoms. It provides a result with limited certainty and is not used to confirm the coronavirus disease. The reason why is because the Rapid Antibody-based Test only determines the presence of antibodies which only shows after infection. It could give a False Negative result in asymptomatic persons.

The Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) Test determines if a person has a virus even before the symptoms occur. The RT-PCR Test however determines the exact virus before a person show symptoms.

The controversy referenced in the Robert Peston interview was that False Negatives can give an incorrect result wherein an infected person is declared to be negative to the disease. False-negative test results, where patients are told they do not have a condition when they actually do, cause several problems. Patients may be turned away from hospitals and medical facilities when they require care. They may infect others at home, work, school, or in the community. Patients' conditions may also worsen without treatment.

Such was the case with Dr. Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist who first identified the outbreak after unknowingly treating an infected patient. He was hospitalized, testing negative for coronavirus several times before eventually receiving a positive result. Dr. Wenliang passed away on February 7 in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

PCR (polymerase chain reaction) try to reduce the statistical chance of False Negatives through amplification of genetic material of interest.. What this is in layman's speak is a technique used to make numerous copies of a specific segment of DNA quickly and accurately. The polymerase chain reaction enables investigators to obtain the large quantities of DNA which they can then use the COVID-19 test on.

The Rapid Antibody-based test kits are only applicable to all persons who are showing symptoms of coronavirus after 5 to 21 days. It will not give the correct results to persons without symptoms. As so the Rapid Antibody-based test kits are complementary to the PCR tests to evaluate if a patient is already free of coronavirus infection after undergoing the required 14-day quarantine after he or she was discharged from the hospital. Person with positive results using the Rapid Antibody-based Test need to be isolated and samples will be taken for RT-PCR testing. It is only when the PCR testing registers positive that the person will be declared a COVID-19 case.

I would suggest that this is more of a reflection of the scale of testing required, and also globally at the same time. It perhaps should be seen as a similar global distribution arrangement that Novacyt signed with Bruker-Hain Diagnostics for its COVID-19 test with. Although some noise was caused by the RP interview last night on the validity of some of these COVID-19 tests it should be noted the pedigree of Primerdesign which developed the H1N1 'swine flu' detection kit. By way of background Primerdesign, is Novacyt's molecular diagnostics division based in the UK. In addition it could be noted that Bruker also has past pedigree with a CE-IVD marked genesig assay kit for the Detection of the SARS-CoV-2. The Primerdesign COVID-19 test has already been approved in India, Argentina and received FDA approval in the Philippines as well so some of the jitters seen today on the Novacyt BB today was overblown. In many ways the Yourgene involvement is due to help with the overspill as they have a similar technological base to Primerdesign, and can supply PCR (polymerase chain reaction). What this is in layman's speak is a technique used to make numerous copies of a specific segment of DNA quickly and accurately. The polymerase chain reaction enables investigators to obtain the large quantities of DNA which they can then use the COVID-19 test on.

At present this supply arrangement is in addition to YGEN's existing sales which according to the CEO have proved quite resilient to the current crisis and which if true should support the current sp on a Enterprise Value to Sales ratio. It could be noted that the original RNS was for a "support the manufacture of critical components for the production of COVID-19 diagnostic tests, whilst continuing its own PCR (polymerase chain reaction) production."

The recent furore of testing would suggest that this more limited involvement will rapidly be expanded "to utilize Yourgene's ability to produce final versions of the COVID-19 testing kits" as also alluded to in the original RNS. This would have a negative impact on the NIPT side of business as it would divert the PCR stocks from NIPT purposes. So I suspect behind the scenes you may be seeing some scaling up of production and expansion of laboratory capabilities to support the NHS in COVID-19 laboratory service testing at the same time as continuing its core NIPT line as a precursor to a further RNS.

The headroom from the latest funding should cover both this scaling up and replenishment of PCR stocks but regardless the volumetrics would pay for itself and you should see a sp appreciation accordingly

For future reference with 599m shares in circulation (excluding further dilution) a £380m valuation gives you a sp of circa 63p.
Best of luck on Monday however most of the figures which will be presented are already known as their past reception. The Company has been averaging 2 RNS a week for a while now so who know you may get something later in the week.
P.S. I suspect with 4 posts in last month I must be one of the laziest derampers on LSE lol

When a company says there's a threshold for "x" to make a commercial announcement and contractual wins but then reissues RNS and press releases about office moves and conference exhibitions something doesn't fit.

I have had at times over 2m shares in this company and am still a holder of 400k shares but for me it does seem odd that there's a rush to release RNS at nauseam but over nothing material. If the company is looking to make acquisitions why not pump up the share price with commercial news? This makes sense to build a war chest does it not? We had an RNS over an office move, exhibitions etc but not over the projected sales growth in New products or new markets? Okay let's accept that the BoD want to grow organically then why all the duplicated RNS? We already new of Citilabs via past corporate communications and there's a communication session planned next week.
The BoD will be doing a sale post a further placing. I'll buy in then. Cheers.

Pump to dump

Couple of slight conveniences here. Although the share price was 7.5p when Lynn Rees took over on 4th July 2018 it went up to 15.25p on the 18th Sep and a morning high of above 16p+ on the 19th Sep when the litigation news broke. Although some PIs got spiked they are not heard from as they subsequently sold through a botched placing (under Lynn Rees) which raised £3m towards the litigation settlement expenses by issuing 22m new shares at 10p. This was at a price considerably less that the sp prior to the litigation announcement however for those that are brave to remember it was this was a considerably cruel turn of events for LTHs whom had stood by the Company through a series of public and private misrepresentations.

Of the circa £16m TMO debt, while it is true that Life Technologies wrote off £12.7 million of loans there was a share expansion of over 41,356,165 ordinary shares (at 9.2 pence per share). The resulted in a sale of £3.8 million which was used to reduce loan balance outstanding to Life Technologies. YGEN now also pay a modest commission on sales within Southeast Asia under the new commercial agreement described below, up to a cap of £6.5 million which has been reflected in the accounts as a liability.

The rise in the number of shares from 188m in 2015 to 574m now in issue was massively expanded by a placing of 110,540,841m for Elucigene. Idiosyncratically though more than the 22m (litigation) placing it didn't have the same catastrophic negative impact. Disappointingly Elucigene sales seem flat adding and has once again added to the BoD and Management Team where a more than required % of the employees are Directors.

Despite the current uptrend and a some background buying following the investor roadshow there is still too little interest given the amount of time these roadshows have been underway. With little impetus and communication supplied from the company to drag itself to past highs of 20p+ where most LTHs wish to get to cash out, it makes past targets mentioned of 50p by some a ridiculous target. The sp has been oscillating within a swing holding pattern between 10.8 to 13.5 since Feb and it is embarrassing to read of the excitement of some LTHs to get to 14p when frankly the sp has not done much this year.

There is little excuse for the Company not to respond to the public criticism on the lack of commercial progress given that a new broker and communication team have been appointed. I suspect that this works might work in its future in the coming months by allowing a future placing to be undertaken internally so as not to repeat 2018 events. With over 25% equity and 10% options the Directors only need a little bit of a top up in order to be able to still accept a 'low-ball' offer in the next two years. Till then I am afraid not much to get excited about.

Pumping for another placing next year more like it

Organic growth, excluding contributions from the Elucigene acquisition, was 56%. The main comparison for company performance was the NIPT performance with £4.8m in the 1st 6 months to Sep vs £3.6m last year so a growth of 34% on a like-for-like basis. The main change for this year was the new products of Reproductive Health of £1.6m and Oncology & research of £1.4m. The acquisition of Elucigine resulted in 92m shares placing to finance the inorganic growth of £1.4m. So the growth although impressive has already been priced into the share dilution and current forecastand hence no sp appreciation. Most noticeably there's been very little public confirmation on whether 'break-even' will be achieved this year or whether a further placing will be required next year for cash-flow purposes or to fuel further M&A prospects. I do hope that this however will be confirmed by the Full Year trading update alongside the new Illumina NIPT product and revenues forecast for US and the DPYD CE-IVD launched which is also noticeably lacking. However predicatbly a presentation with no material new news has resulted in little market interest and the investor roadshow which has been apparently underway for many months now has resulted in no re-rate nor significant volume.

Copy of the presentation can be found here
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5db18d5734a3cf1389e7f865

Pic from event
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHp68tWXUAIggsp.jpg:large