Member Info for notaflipper

Much as I love some of the rhetoric I think we need to mention some figures and clarifications.

The target to reach 100,000 tests a day was not classed into antigen or antibody tests. However as the 'Lighthouse Labs' have taken their name from the PCR testing technology, which uses fluorescent light to detect the virus, I suspect that the 100k target was more geared towards Antigen. Also to note as the AVCT test is not based on PCR reagents I also do not think there is potential for YGEN to supply the similar service they are providing to NCYT though I do think YGEN are talking to other platform providers.

The second mega-lab at Alderley Park in Cheshire (yes near Manchester NOT Sheffield) began to test thousands of patient samples a day for coronavirus this week. Although the testing capacity of the Lighthouse Labs are undisclosed we do know that a fourth lab at Cambridge University's Anne McLaren Laboratory aims to process 30,000 tests per day, which would go a long way to meeting the Government's 100,000 a day April target. But of the 10 smaller support labs I have the one in Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust has a workload capacity of 300,000 tests per annum so I would agree that this local NHS trust will need support the Givernment's 100k test target which would be inflated with private sector demand.

You can take a tour of the Alderly Park facility via the https://twitter.com/JimBethell/status/1251103517793804288?s=20

NCYT has mentioned an intent to increase manufacturing capacity from 4m tests a month to 8m. Their manufacturing agreement with BioType Diagnostic would give them only daily capacity of 8,000 to 10,000 COVID-19 tests from BioType's 1000m2 facility if it runs seven days a week in a 2-shift system. So I suspect there will need to be some support to them to help them with demand. Figures are in short supply but Novacyt, as of March 11, received order for over £2.3 million of their coronavirus testing costs.

It should also be appreciated that even if a virus is found this will take time to manufacture in bulk. This will be the biggest vaccination programme undertaken globally at the same time. You would have to look at the small pox vaccination for a comparison. This programme started in 1966 and only was officially closed in 1980!

Finally I am sure that the world map in the background on LR's video was only there to cover an old Top Gear calendar and not to allude to expansion plans, but this was a classic pump.

Have a good weekend and hope Andy is wrong in the nicest way.

Agree with Pacman's summary. Just to add that Yourgene has the ability to force conversion or cancellation of these warrants, at Life Technologies' preference, in the event that the share price sustains a level of more than 50 per cent above the exercise price (so 60p+ as the weighted average is 16.6p).

As Yourgene will establish a contingent liability of £6.5 million in the event of a sale of the Company, essentially this is another discount for TMO if they make a cheeky offer.

For this year, in terms of warrants, the most important thing though is that as per the 09th May RNS there was a warrant extension of 1,411,227 ordinary shares that was scheduled to expire on 13 June 2019. I do not think this was for Thermo Fisher's though.

Yes in the next week you should hear more at the "macro" level on the testing strategy. Novacyt will publish their results for y/e 31 Dec 2019 by the end of April which will also include update on their manufacturing capacity and should give more detail on the YourGene dimension. Although I can appreciate the restrained communication of the BoD here in not creating a feeding frenzy as per other BBs I have to admit that I wish as some other traders that they would provide some more detail directly on the Illumina IONA NIPT sales forecast and also the exact potential from the COVID manufacturing.

It gets interesting 8 mins in when he confirms that deliveries to Novacyt have already been made and that the discussion on extending the role to manufacture full kits are just one of the conversations they are having with different platform providers. Also alluded to new products within next year further to Illumina NIPT.

The recovery in the NCYT share price and tweet could be pointing to some upcoming communication. Regardless it seems that the dip to 16.5p was hopefully the bottom but let us. Certainly it seems that the trading statement has been digested and the AVCT challenge understood. I have added £55k worth of shares split through a number of smaller trades this morning as Halifax only allowed a limited purchase of shares each time. I suspect the share price inevitably will drop now however I will just keep these and the original share holding till July as I always loose with swing trading.

Today's announcement by them was that they had developed Affimer reagents. The next step for them is to develop a laboratory test for the SARS-COV-2 virus antigen. This is expected within the next few weeks. Thereafter these Affimer binders get transferred to Cytiva shortly for development into test kit like pregnancy test.

If you were a holder of NCYT you could think well although the test sounds cooler its not ready yet so why their drop. However its the market opportunity that was highly speculated there and still not understood being rethought. For YGEN holders the Affimer reagents would be an alternative to the PCR reagents they supply NCYT so also affected.

There will be some settling down this week whilst investors struggle to understand the bewildering number of tests both approved and in development and the market size and margins. So I expect further weakness unless of another unexpected RNS by YGEN or NCYT. Just a bad week to delay the trading statement until and retrace is more than expected.

When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions

It has nothing to do with the results and the growth of the company. Yesterday was a red day across the market which exacerbated the sell on the news trick. This trick incidentally can be costly than some would lead you to believe as you lose on the spread and multiple commissions if you have a large holding. For today you need to look at the COVID related companies as a whole. Why is NCYT, YGEN, ODX down but Avacta Group up? The reason is because Avacta have developed Affimer reagents that bind the SARS-COV-2 viral antigen. These Affimer binders will be transferred to another company Cytiva for implementation in a point-of-care test strip, similar in appearance to a pregnancy test, giving a visual read-out in minutes using a sample such as saliva. So because there is a further antigen test coming to the market - though important to note, not ready yet - people are chasing that as unclear of the opportunity and potential news flow here.

Asia Pacific as per past presentations particularly Japan and China.

Not sure why you are so concerned about my posts P3T3R. Let us to agree that we have filtered each other from now on.

I was surprised how much the COVID orders, though not included, accrued in March alone. So £0.4m of orders for March alone and at best this was for just for 2 weeks post announcement with NYCT on the 25th March.

Going forward you should hear better figures following launch in the US, which should increase sales significantly post having US teams fully in place from Miami office and also following Illumina IONA NIPT test

Also China's 2015 non-invasive prenatal genetic testing(NIPT) market size of 2 billion, while the industry penetration rate is not even 5%. So the International figures should also improve.

Finally there was only three weeks' contribution from the Company's French NIPT distribution business, acquired on 10 March 2020. So this should also improve the forward looking statement coming in July.

Yes. Another example SureScreen, a Derby firm, has also created a finger-prick test which they say takes 10 minutes to return a result and is 98 per cent accurate. However as before I do not think it is a straight-forward binary choice between antigen and antibody tests as the stock movements seem to suggest.

The WHO approved Roche and Novacyt for emergency use listing. It meant that the tests can now be supplied by the United Nations and other procurement agencies supporting the COVID-19 response. The genesig Real-Time PCR Coronavirus (COVID-19) (Primerdesign, United Kingdom) is an open system more suitable for laboratories with moderate sample testing capacity, while the cobas® SARS-CoV-2 for use on the cobas® 6800/8800 Systems (Roche, United States of America) is a closed system assay for larger laboratories. That is I believe the key difference.

Separate to receiving FDA approval, Thermo Fisher received the CE mark in the European Union for its diagnostic test to detect nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 on the on 26th March 2020. In addition to receiving the designated approvals in the U.S. and E.U., Thermo Fisher's diagnostic test has received the designated approvals in Canada, Singapore, India, Australia and New Zealand.

I would agree with the statements that regardless of any worries to impairment to trading figures that, subject to testing capacity, Yourgene have quite a few opportunities with their positioning with Thermo Fisher and Novacyt. Also within the NIPT sphere with Illumina.

Yes. Although I do not agree with some of the figures quoted I did like the range of technical analysis given. I also did fall off my chair, literally, when I read the statement "Analysts also expected that stock to achieve share value at GBX1,611 +8,377.72% in coming one year period."

https://newswelcome.com/2020/04/14/be-ready-for-active-stock-yourgene-health-plc-lonygen/

Think you are right that there's investors out there which are just buying anything related to COVID-19 and we are now connected with NCYT and their share price.

I had thought that the weakness across many of these stocks was related to the telegraph article and so some people think that it is a choice between antigen and antibody testing. I do not think that it is as straightforward as that. The reason why is it takes 5 days for symptoms to show itself and so an antigen test will be needed in any case and till a cure is found. The reason for discussions of antibody testing is that this is needed to support the exit strategy to lock-in.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/coronavirus-antibody-test-kit-covid-19-prick/

I don't have any figures on the testing capacity but YGEN were selling I believe circa 100k NIPT tests a year and had budgeted capacity to double this year and double this again by 2022.

Agreed.

The graphic is poor but the text which states that YourGene are supporting the manufacturing of "key components" of the "molecular test" is the key statement. The reference to the serological "antibody" test in the graphic is confusing but just background information. Suggests any extension to support has still to be finalised, if expected.

Think people just getting jittery due to the delay in news. Don't think there is much impairment to trading outlook from December as lock-down only came in March ~ so just before year end. Current year's growth would only be impacted (assuming there is a virus cure) however this should be compensated by supporting Novacyt and the NHS.

The Financial Year End cannot be changed and has already passed on the 31st March. YGEN has already committed to provide Full Year results in July 2020. However they can delay providing a trading update. So although this was supplied on the 8th April in 2019, this was more the exception and had been supplied in May in 2018 and 2017. There are many moving parts at present which will be significant drivers to NIPT sales forecast like US / China expansion, penetration into francophone countries following Adgenix purchase or Illumina IONA CE-IVD approval. Further product expansion into oncology. These updates should secure on the current sp appreciation on their own. Obviously their is come excitement looking for a return similar to Avacta or Novacyt. I suspect that the Trading Update will await till there is material news on updates to the laboratory expansion, PCR reagent supply, support to NHS PHE on testing and on any extensions to support Novacyt in manufacturing the final design kit, or not. The key for me is whether any support will be supplied to Thermo Fisher's COVID-19 test where there has been much news in the US media. Here the scale of the testing planned is the most significant and it would be interesting to understand if Yourgene Health support this via their offices in Singapore, Taiwan and Miami. All good though I suspect a few more days pressing the refresh button.

My reading of the RNS is that NCYT is simply struggling with the expected demand. They had already bought raw materials for 18m tests. However the contracting of Chartwell Consulting shows that the scaling up of the supply chain for the expected demand is a significant challenge. We should also mention here that the WHO has already distanced itself from the virus being ready by September 2020.

In terms of BioType Diagnostic and Biofortuna Limited they look smaller outfits to YourGene though I could be wrong. BioType's 1000m2 facility runs seven days a week in a 2-shift system. A daily capacity of 8,000 to 10,000 COVID-19 tests is planned.

What has this got to do with YourGene? YourGene have been helping to supply the extraction reagents required to perform PCR testing which already in short supply will be further demanded by the increase to 8m tests per month. So irrespective if YourGene's role is not extended to cover the development of final design it will still need to help further in order to supply PCR reagents as Novacyt doesn't have enough. To combat this Novacyt are developing a new "direct-to-PCR" extraction method prior to running the Company's COVID-19 test" as per admission in the RNS.

Hope you bought the dip and shorters now closed their shorts.

Going up in the backroom

Although there's been no formal RNS on the scale of YGEN's involvement I do think that this involvement is seen as quite strategically important hence it being led by Greg Fitzgibbon, Director of Global Operations at Yourgene Health. He is the former COO of Elucigene Diagnostics and is leading the COVID-19 assay manufacture. Elucigene Diagnostics execs got £2.9 million equity at 10.25 pence from memory so it was nice earner for them which should only set to continue with further oncology products to their DPYD screening and BRCA1 /2 screening service. So expect this oncology offering to be extended at some point this year. It is significant I think that Elucigene added 150 laboratory customers to YourGene following the acquisition. I suspect as mentioned before that the Trading Update will await further background news being finalised which I do hope is significant and will be revealed soon.

It would be interesting to see whether the laboratory in Taiwan process the ThermoFisher CE-IVD test as they are a listed Laboratory Service provider for ThermoFisher.