Member Info for notaflipper

I have taken up a position here two weeks ago. I was checking the debt maturity schedule and was thinking that we should be getting news this week on debts being repaid which was the investor worry here. Is that right? With the uplift in the sp and the Director buys this seems to bode well.

Bakky what is your obsession with knowing my holding. Please understand I am not a poster who needs your plaudits of being a big holder capable of moving the share price on my own or to update the board with my swing trading prowess. Nor someone who posts directly to other investors about alleged information from the Company. Opinions are held by prospective investors didn't you know and these can be hesitant, negative or positive. To ease your curiosity I had at one point 2m+ shares here but did sell heavily pre-Dec 2018 Interims following the debacle LR made in managing the placing to support the Illumina settlement. So I am not as zealous a supporter as some but then again many who had held supporting the company through the legal troubles also felt let down during that time. Because I know how difficult it is to sell at volume here and the sp effect it makes some posts here interesting reading. I retained a legacy holding of 500k which I have added to since then however I don't feel need that requires me to ad nauseum to apologise for the failings in investor communications here or keep on changing investment time horizons due to missed opportunities. We all hope for significant news shortly and for this to have some effect.

It would be a bit surprising for a company to start tweeting bio pharma jargon explanations if news was imminent in the next few days. More likely that they are preparing the ground for a very technical RNS on new tests and how to assess their quality. For those that asked for financial forecasts and analysis a glossary/dictionary makes for different reading. Though this will delight those who ramp this as a 'slow and steady' approach it will frustrate others more aware of the recovery returns elsewhere.

What will be interesting to monitor is if any support (e.g. financing or transition management) as these labs will have to change from TMO to Illumina sequencers. The merits of the respective sequencers is below:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166093420301178

I do not believe it is right to talk of another share on another BB but you obviously have a position to defend.

Without getting into the details of the respective companies and their merits I will just simply explain the margin requirements my way of apology.

ABF closed at 2045 Friday. Year high is 2730
Margin requirements: £409 per penny movement

M&S 52 closed 111.55 Friday 52 Week High 236.50
Price pre crisis circa 170p+
Margin requirements: £22 per penny movement

With the £409 it would cost me to get into ABF to benefit £1 per penny move I could potentially get £685 if it went back to 2730

With the same £409 I could get £18 benefit per penny move with M&S if it gets back to £1,080 if it goes back to 170p+

That all said I believe the BBs are filled with too much rampers with accounts opened in the last two months who are counting on a V-recovery and do not appreciate the scale of the recession coming and the risk of a second wave and that comparison of potentially share rises to pre-crisis levels are mis-leading.

Apologies to IAG holders for discussing this in their BB.

I wouldn't bother about Associated Business Foods (owners of Primark) as the recovery has already been priced in there. Similarly Next. So when you look at the Margin requirements per penny movement and the potential return its expensive on a Spread Betting basis. I went for M&S. Unfashionable and where the recovery still hasn't happened yet. With stores opening in next 2 weeks and trading throughout with food halls.

Back to IAG I think the key thing will be to see what the business class seat demand will be when passengers have to wear masks throughout and will have more restricted food service to minimise interaction with service staff.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iata/status/1263440195510087683

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/coronavirus-flying-stressful-200531231143335.html

Brent crude oil prices averaged $18 per barrel (b) in April, a decrease of $13/b from the average in March. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $34/b in 2020, down from an average of $64/b in 2019. EIA expects prices will average $23/b during the second quarter of 2020 before increasing to $32/b during the second half of the year. EIA forecasts that Brent prices will rise to an average of $48/b in 2021, $2/b higher than forecast last month, as EIA expects that declining global oil inventories next year will put upward pressure on oil prices

On a separate note with the protests in the UK and US it has to be expected that the infection rate will rise. Same thing happened in Saudi Arabia which briefly tried to return to normality after Ramadan with the highest number of cases in a day prompting a 2nd lockdown. June should be quite interesting

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/contractors/costain/costain-ceo-100m-raise-proves-market-positivity-03-06-2020/

Oh this guy is cool.

I don't know about the break-even point as that depends on a range of factors such as ticket prices.

However would agree that an average occupancy rate for a 2, 3 or more screen venue is in the 15-20% range growing to 30-40% on an exceptional film basis. Typically cinemas do well in a recession but the main problem is the social distancing element.

No specific mention of YGEN however should expect some money to be recycled from them here.

As of 1 June 2020, sales of the Primerdesign COVID-19 test are €45 million (£40 million). In addition, Primerdesign has received orders for, or been contracted to deliver, a further €90 million (£80 million) of its COVID-19 test. Therefore, currently the total sales and confirmed orders are €135 million (£120 million).

Top 2 countries for sales are UK and Germany of the 130 country footprint. Manufacturing capacity now at 8m per month with the new products, Exsig™ Direct and Exsig™ Mag expected later this year to move them away from reliance on PCR testing and bottleneck.

They're not interested Joker but it was tried over the weekend. Most BBs are full of trading genius with an account less than two months old and for them the only way is up.
The main takeaways in the article to me was the increased operational costs due to extra cleaning and staffing. It also appears there will be staggered cinema screening times and spacing requirements which will impact revenue.

On a positive note Natdan I don't see them changing the name for a 3rd time. Back to sleep.

Come on give it a rest. Any sp appreciation here is a frecking grind which in this market turning people off and to be expected. Hearing how investors are happy that there has been not much more of a rerate here is a bit disingenuous. Most PIs here have already shown incredible patience over a period of years and for them this is now starting to feel again like another waiting game with funds locked up for the next damp squib event. The unaudited results are already known so the main thing is an update to the forward looking forecast or a current trading update which other companies are able to provide with more willingness.

I will be looking to take a position here perhaps only after the AGM by when all the bad news will be known and the transformation programme better understood. If it is a worse entry price then so be it. I was looking at the expected car registrations for this year from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) which recently found that only 4,321 cars were registered, the lowest monthly level since 1946, compared to 161,064 new cars that were registered in same month in 2019. The SMMT now says it expects just 1.68 million new car registrations in 2020 a fall of 27%. The sluggishness of anticipated demand is also reflected in commodity prices. Whether AML will be above or below this 27% depends on whether your view is that the AML customer base will be insulated from this contraction in demand or whether the rich will only get richer from this crisis. I would also like to see what the comments at the AGM are on Brexit and in the event of an extended transition period or a No-Deal. Should be an interesting week all round.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52808191

I was awaiting the deal financing deal before I bought in and think there's a chance that we will here of acquisitions here following. Usually these acquisitions are sp negative as they lead to dilution, but here the financing should be in place. Infrastructure projects should be high on any recovery plan and were not affected as other sectors by the lockdown.

With the placing at 60p my main concern in building a stake is the lock in period for the placing shares. Is there an expectation that the sp will slip to the placing price as PIs and IIs etc realise the marginal profit? Or is there a lock-in period?

It would be amazing if there was good news next week given that the CEO and other top managers were resigning. The most realistic picture would be to get all the bad news out and start with a clean slate and a new transformation plan. Would be surprised if a spike came before the AGM but as this was priced to bust it should be okay once plan to deal with debt is in place

Markets are red today best not to read too much into any sp movements. I would say some of the euphoria this week will be shaken off though elsewhere. This was a great story of a British entrepreneur fighting to save his business which is to be applauded.. It mainly talks about the support he got from Lloyds Register in getting ISO 13485 Quality Management system certified. This was the USP that YourGene was boasting about. Aside from this touchpoint you have to look at throughput of the respective labs and whether there is enough demand to go around. Some could say that with suggestions that testing will be required even after a vaccine is found to monitor residual infections then there's enough demand. Others would suggest that Novacyt trying to develop the reagent free test is more of an issue. Others would say that the current market capitalisation is a bit of a slap in the face when compared to others where there is no product and where the test quality is unknown. This is just another bow in YourGene's rapidly expanding product range which once again is not yielding the expected sp appreciation. The note of this test being a "manual assay" is significant as it suggests that the test process is essentially there just being automated for higher throughput. This is the cell extraction, application of reagents, DNA amplification and analysis.