Member Info for notaflipper

Re: Meanwhile seems as we were Johnny come lately to vivid testing in our own right we will be left standing......

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/u-k-antibody-test-approved-to-support-government-s-free-coronavirus-screening-efforts?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdVMk5XSTJaVFF4T0dJMiIsInQiOiI4NWd6TXJGYWxIR1RxNk5hcjZoRkZCYVBHXC9XMVwvd1dzUGhtMW5iZm1BZEU3XC91VkFDMVhQNjd2MXl5STBoMGJzTnYwdTRnZnRkbkRQb3FTelBTOTFwODdrVkhRcWg4NDBIeExYRWpTVEMwZFNxckxtOU1TM1hFbThUOFRoMkFXWSJ9&mrkid=4616623

To supplement the standard ramping that will inevitably respond it should be appreciated that the this is an ANTIBODY test more related to Omega Diagnostics (ODX) which reported that lead partner Abingdon Health has CE-marked the test for professional use. Abingdon are the lead partner in the RTC and having developed the test are ahead of the others in the consortium in being able to produce the tests. The company was planning to have an initial AbC-19 test production capacity in place in September to produce 100,000 tests per week, scaling up to 200,000 tests per week in October. The company now plans to produce 500,000 per month starting in October and one million per month from January of next year. The larger consortium aims to manufacture 10 million tests within a six-month period.

You have to give credit where credit is due. And for Walbrook PR this was a well articulated piece of comms. Only problem for us it was for the wrong company but well done Paul McManus/Lianne Cawthorne who drafted the RNS for ODX.

For YGEN in terms of a PEST analysis on rival ANTIGEN tests the greater worry is Avacta Group's expected CE-IVD accreditation and work with the UK government's CONDOR programme and NOVACYT's direct-to-PCR RNA extraction kit (exsig™ Direct). Here though YGEN despite being a later start in its own right will have the first 2 gene antigen test.

What is interesting is that all COVID players have plans to get FDA approval to sell in the US which is driving some of their increased valuations. For those who don't do blind faith hopefully this will also be elaborated in due course one day.

To be fair there has nothing been written about on this BB which has been blatantly negative. To be honest the frustrations raised have been done so in as constructive a way that can be shared on a public BB. Even those posters with outright swing trading strategies have usually been fair in pointing out legitimate issues. I find it is always best to play the ball rather than the individual as this avoiding characterisations as derampers and other unhelpful archetypes and so on. Both camps have used aliases on both BBs to reinforce their agenda and with both any declared trades, holdings or selective sp chartist analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. As mentioned most PIs/posters here are LTHs hence the sp reverting back to its long term trend. Whatever is posted here, positive or negative, makes no difference to the SP trend and I cannot imagine any LTHs here not having already displayed great patience and loyalty to get to this point irrespective of the occasional public venting.

Take for example the chuckle that was made that before the long awaited trading update there would be more Director's Options issued...that is not being negative. Since October 2019 there has been 14,060K shares issued as options arguably at discount prices if the broker ratings are conservative and do not reflect the full product range. When LR took over then Premiatha there was 387m shares in issue. Now there is 624m post Illumina settlement fundraise, Euciligene purchase and so on. This I appreciate is immaterial as it is not the amount of shares in issue but the Free Float that matters and there again brings us back to the Investor Communications / Relations. The UK Government has 22 members in Cabinet. YourGene has 12 on the Management Board and 9 on the BoD for a Company of circa 100+ so it is not only about LR.

As others have observed this creates an illiquid stock which is then more vulnerable to the effects of swing traders which should not be an issue with the amount of positive RNS. Obviously it is extremely unhelpful, if not tedious, however in the face of a tight and protracted trading pattern and with a large average what can one do. The more interesting question is why they don't not let it run?

If one was looking to issue new shares for acquisition purchases the logic would be to bump up the stock as Lenigas is a notorious example of. Same logic if looking to sell to secure the best price for the shareholders. Hence suggesting there'll be more options issued pre AGM which will likely be delayed till end of September now. That or a (relatively) low-ball offer. Post the Clarigene CE-IVD accreditation and given the Iona Nx commercialisation, which according to the PPT is in full-swing, the broker will have little choice to update their guidance even before end of September. Limited downside from here for LTHs but that doesn't make it a joyful experience.

Same rampant rubbish

The following communications were deemed of 'material' value that needed to be informed to shareholders via RNS
(a) 7th Apr 2020 Presentation on ‘Adapting during crisis
(b) 5th Dec 2019 The Healthcare+ Expo Taiwan
(c) 15th Oct 2019 American Society of Human Genetics Annual Meeting

Example of items not deemed of material value:
(a) Ex5 Genomics, a small UK-based research services company, purchased for £275,000 in initial cash and up to an additional £275,000 in potential cash earn-out. Ex5 Genomics staff have been retained as per AdGeniX model
(b) Update to trade expectations following 14th Feb 2020 RNS on TGA approves DPYD for sale in Australia
(c) Update to trade expectations following 25th Mar 2020 RNS on Contract Manufacturing agreement
(d) Update to trade expectations following 15th Jun 2020 RNS on CE-IVD mark received for Illumina-based IONA® test

Will stop now as have a significant interest in this share and the phone is not looking great.
Have a good weekend.

I was expecting it today too. More fool me. In BusinessDesk.com interview he's quoted as below:
Mr Rees said the test kit should receive CE approval by the end of this month, or very early August, adding: “We would expect to see orders in September.”

The drop in March was due in the main to concerns over the company's debt position. This has vastly been improved post the 22nd May RNS which confirmed that the big worry £44,098,100 6.125% bonds due May 2020 were repaid. If you look at the remaining bonds the expectation now is that they will repay 90% of their face value vs March where the expectation was they would pay 40%. See https://m.uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/ipf-5.75-07-apr-2021
So although there's been reassuring trading updates since then with better debt position the sp didn't recover as much in the May/June rally. Furloughed day traders need to try harder I'm sorry.

Really? 2nd wave is laying it on a bit thick isn't it though I appreciate the agenda. A big change in expectations from the 10th July. Should rise next week into trading update I suspect and week thereafter.

Weren't you the chap who was hoping it would be 90 a few weeks ago?

Bit frustrating today with markets spooked because of fall-out from Spanish quarantine. Should get another trading update in the next week I reckon which should calm some nerves. Getting to be a bit of a tedious of the disparity between the sp and appreciation in bond prices and trading figures

Will be interesting to see if what happens in afternoon in expectation of Clarigene RNS. Hope so as added (72,799). May even end up flat wowo

There was no forward looking numbers and that is the long and short of it. I would not say 3 months because the AGM would be in September and in all likelihood more will be needed by then. In three months time we would inevitably be having the Half Year update so why mention it. However having waited ages to get to this point frankly this is getting a bit of a wind up now and is starting to look like delinquency in informing shareholders. Are we still suppliers to NCYT and so on? My personal take is the reason for delaying to update the Financial Calendar on Finals date is there's been a delay on something else they are working on which will change forecast hence awaiting. Could be hoping having but hopefully when this happens we should get figures afterwards. As before it is like having nails clawed upon blackboard awaiting these effing figures

Agreed. Today's sp reaction, as in the past, is mainly due to hot air swing traders moving out with their couple hundred quid profit. Market is now wise to the game as well as to the individuals and so best not loose our heads that this has not had the reaction we had in the 1st hour. Key thing is what you feel the potential of the sp will be for a company will be by end of week, early Aug and mid Sep. Not mid to long term for me I am afraid as done my time. From my perspective obviously one is aware that some would be tempted to sell 1st thing in the morning. But then you have to there's a 2-gene antigen test with 100% specifity test coming by end of week and a commercial roll-out announcement of the IONA Nx. So realistically the sp should be higher post these news. Tedious atm though.

Lot's to read but to be fair most of it was already known from Unaudited figures from March 2020. So best is to scroll to Outlook statement and WAIT till LR's presentation later which hopefully should include financial outlook. Hopefully after there's some reaction from the broker rating.

Key points are that the CE marking for YGEN's test is coming the end of this month. Why does this matter?:
- Clarigene™ SARS-CoV-2 test is a 2-gene test and already admittedly better than NCYT's
- It will get reimbursement from EU Health Authorities (e.g. French HAS). See comment -> "The CE-IVD version will have two viral targets and assay controls, making it more desirable from the reimbursement perspective across several European regions."
- They remembered their PIs with comment to "commit to updating shareholders on a quarterly basis on the commercial take-up of this product". Freaking hallelujah they realised we exist.
- Network already in place to provide care homes and private GP practice with a fast and reliable COVID-19 lab testing service.
- "Clarigene™ is the brand family for our infectious disease portfolio and we are looking at what ADDITIONAL TESTS will be developed"

Key statement "With this in mind, we will , and not based on unsupported speculation of what the future potential uptake might be. Market forecasts for 2021 and beyond see our growth trajectory continuing and heralds a move towards full
profitability in the near term."-> Again expected B/E this year but seems to suggest by next Quarter update (September AGM probably) will be announced.

To say the reticence in the share price appreciation has been frustrating is keeping it light. COVID stocks like NCYT were not at break-even and in debt before the crisis yet their sp still spiked before the revenue numbers were known. With us these last few months have seen a tight trading pattern with to be honest insignificant swing trading gains to be made at the expense of more significant damage to market sentiment and sp potential. What is interesting is whether the Investor Presentation which will be released on the 28th will be recorded in isolation or during a private Investor call with IIs. As you said not cheap and so I suspect the days of cheap options may not be over. I suspect that PIs having awaited so long for ANY meaningful commercial information from the Company may be hoping to much for tomorrow. Hopefully LTHs who may have missed out out on opportunities elsewhere in the last few months will be rewarded with a new trading range without the normal sp disappointments.

The NYCT RNS today was not the one which was interesting to me. For me the one which was interesting was the one on the 22nd July. This one highlighted that a randomised clinical trial, recruiting up to 2,000 residents in 50 care homes across east London, is being led by Professor Jo Martin, President of the Royal College of Pathologists and Professor of Pathology at Queen Mary University of London. QMUL is interesting as Premaitha (now YourGene) launched an in-house antenatal reflex DNA screening service (for NIPT) there back in 19 October 2015.

The NCYT study is using a mobile or near-patient testing (NPT) system for COVID-19 developed by Novacyt which comprises the Company's COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, direct-to-PCR RNA extraction kit (exsig™ Direct), and portable testing instruments (Q16 and Q32 instruments), to ensure reliable results are received within an hour of testing. This would mean that PCR testing would be available at the airports as per less precise antigen tests.

In some ways today's NCYT RNS is playing catch-up with YGEN with announcements of a 2-gene test and workplace COVID-19 testing which have already been launched by YGEN. I take the September test for the release of the NCYT test as suggesting this is not the same as YGEN's. I hope I am wrong as with the revenue still to be made it might be better for more collaboration between COVID players. Some suggestions that AR's recent Non-Executive appointment may lead to collaboration with AVCT I cannot yet see where the synergies would be but happy to be informed.

With Dr Joanne Mason appointment as Director of R&D we should se further product announcements in the area of reproductive health and oncology. I am a bit surprised that some RNS have not been issued as of yet for example on the commercialisation of the IONA Illumina NIPT test. Hopefully this commercialisation and US expansion will be revealed in the next Investor briefing. I suspect on the DYPD front there will be further news later in the year if the French agree to reimburse the treatment for this.

Good grief both BBs a joke now

CooperD I would just use the filter button. Most of the posts here are very poor and reflections of swing trading strategies which are incoherent with stated holdings, trade data and general investment logic.

There'll be localised lockdowns as there has already been in the UK and US. Market will just have to get used to it till a vaccine is developed and able to be rolled out en masse.

Share price appreciation on Friday seemed to coincide with an increase in the bond prices via link supplied by @Ragnarlothbrok
https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/ipf-5.75-07-apr-2021

It is a great find so thanks. However although it is a great mention there's nothing materially new with respect to YourGene itself. What would be more interesting is the purpose and the result of this written evidence. I believe that the purpose of this submission was to secure potentially R&D tax credits and long term funding for the genomics sector via the National Genomics Board or Genomics England. So hopefully post this written submission we could see something in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement or potentially earlier given the obvious importance in current circumstances.

to see that YourGene have added to their Global Leadership team with Wendy Cox (HR Director) and Dr Joanne Mason (R&D Director). The Clarigene SARS-CoV-2 RUO marketing on the website has been updated to state 100% specificity accuracy.