Member Info for notaflipper

Strange thing for the sp to rise then nearly 10p in advance of a trading statement only scheduled to come at end of month?

What do peeps think is this is the potential for the SP if the bond is successfully refinanced or simply if the covenants are amended? Would it necessitate a revision to Peel Hunts and Shore Capital's broker rating?

It is very surprising given there is no scheduled announcement for a few weeks. That said there was a suggestion via wheeliedealer and conkers3 (the latter is a holder) on twitter that there may potentially be an announcement next week. That said I doubt that would be the reason for tick up in just one day. With shorts closed and bond prices stable I have been adding sub-50.

Please. 2 posts (now 3) is not taking the moral high ground. If I was taking the moral high ground I would cite past documented cases of leaking, spreading false legal confidences. SP creaking back to where it was 6 years ago (and March) is great. Employee(s) coming on a BB and abusing investors isn't.

No problem employees reading the BB but I think we all know that this employee was abusive and aggressive to shareholders when they raised legitimate questions. That employee did a disservice both to his/her Company and our investment.

To be fair I think we all know of at least one YGEN employee who has been on this BB for a few months now :-)

As suspected the Ask was so reduced on Open that there is limited opportunity for people to short or investors to get out and sell. From an circa 16p Ask one has to think how much more this has to fall and the potential opportunity

Not invested here but to be fair to @dubaidave £30k in one position is big enough. With margin requirements of sub £8 per penny movement @dubaidave will make £3,764 per penny movement. Has to be done big as the Ask will be reduced 1st thing in the morning so will have less to fall. A better short could be EMAN as this will also fall in the coming weeks.

Exactly the point I was making. You cannot sell or short from 39p but where the market opens.

It will be heavily marked down by MMs on open. So much of the fall will be anticipated already by the MMs. Might go down further from thereon but if it costs you £10+ per penny movement , you'll be having to invest £1000 to make a £100 from a 10p drop. So if you are going to short make it a large one.

A limit order will "trigger" at the price set. You'll need to do it on each CFD trade and some margin will be required. However the reason why I caveat and say it will be "triggered" at 36p but perhaps not executed is that if it falls quickly you might get 34p or whatever the best price is at the Ask is at the open. The MMs will be marking this down heavily 1st thing at open. So if your list order is above the Ask you will still get the Ask price not the limit order price.

I don't hold here. I suspect those that will be rushing to raise shorts will also find they don't get a good deal as the MMs will because they'll reduce the Ask heavily 1st thing. So less to fall from the Ask price on open.

For potential shooters a better deal could be EMAN as other cinema stocks will be running scared tomorrow

I suspect you will have to wait until markets open to put the limit order as you cannot do it today. But if the sp goes below it will automatically execute it doesn't mean you'll necessarily get 36p but whatever the best trade price is at the time. Really depends how quickly it falls. You will have to put limit order on each CFD clip. So maybe quicker to call broker pre 8am and place sell order.

The CFD will close automatically once the liquidation value falls below half of the Margin Reserved.

Share price has held up pretty well despite the realisation that trading update at end of October and general market skittishness.

The half yearly report said the following
"Our covenants are tested on a 12-month look-back basis. Although we passed all our covenants at the 30 June 2020 test date, the full effect of Covid-19 is likely to temporarily affect our covenant tests in the short term. Therefore we have commenced discussions with our banks on appropriate covenant amendments and will also take appropriate measures in relation to our outstanding bonds in due course."

...However separately it said that "they are actively preparing for the refinancing of this [April] bond in 2020."

So make it of what you will. Cash and headroom on undrawn debt facilities at 31 August 2020 was £326 million from £213 million in June.

Last 3 weeks have been pretty tough for shareholders to say the least and so I had asked confirmation last week given that the SP had fallen nearly 50% since the Half Year results whether they were still planning to provide monthly trading updates to reassure the market. They said they didn't see a need and that this would be provided at the end of October. Just the way that it was said seemed pretty confident but then I'm now all in so perhaps skewed.

Spoke to IR last week. The monthly update for September is to be rolled into the Q3 trading update at the end of the October. So no scheduled update news at the end of October hence thinking we get something else. Given that collections were 96% efficiency in August, there's no reason to doubt the trend will not continue till then.

Just in over last year:
25 September 2020: 750k to 2 employees
June 2020: 470k to 2 employees
27 March 2020: 500k share options issued to undisclosed number
30 October 2019: 1,500k issued to Jonathan Seaton
30 October 2019: 1,000k share options issued to undisclosed number of recipients
3 June 2019: 10,590k share options issued to undisclosed number

The total number of share options now in issue is 62,129,232, representing 8.6% of the as-enlarged share capital. Will have to await till after Half Year results (probably a Friday) to see whether this was the last tranche.

Key thing among all articles is the risk of refinancing. The other issue cited is regulatory reform but this is not the short term issue that is depressing the sp. It comes down to whether you believe there will be a refinancing deal before the Oct 31 Q3 trading update or not. What is strange is that despite the sp share fall there has been no comment by the Company to reassure the market as earlier in the year, which can be a good thing or bad thing.

Covered by conkers and wheelie dealer on twitter podcast. Coverage starts at 1:07 but main interesting part starts at 1:18
https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-32-micropayments-loop-dplm-dddd-song-wtb-fpo-biln-aa-call-ipf

Keeping aside the politics and whether you think this moonshot policy is a good idea given the obliterated state of public finances; the main challenge here is the underlying technology.
The trade-off with a PCR light test is that it needs controlled lab conditions and has lower throughput but you get a more accurate test and less false positives. The other challenges is that it is a manual assay. YourGene have said they will eventually automate this. However some of the other tests which have gathered more sp appreciation offer more throughput and quicker results. There needs to be a collective breadth among scientists and politicians to agree what they wish to prioritise as some of the policies just seem half-****ed and counterproductive. A case in point is having restaurants and pubs close at 10pm.
The main question in my mind is what else would need to be demonstrated in the Half Year results for the broker targets to change further (e.g. break-even)

Apologies again that this the FDA in the Philippines that I also monitor.

USA FDA link here:
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/vitro-diagnostics-euas

Sorry typo meant to say that Clarigene has gotten CE-IVD approval (not FDA approval).

re Director Options it looks like there's no change then. These always land after hours on a Friday. Should see another tranche after the Half Year results.

Clarigene test has gotten FDA approval which should help to get FDA approval for Emergency Use but as of yet the YGEN test is not approved for use in the US. You can monitor the list below.

https://www.fda.gov.ph/list-of-fda-approved-covid-19-test-kits-for-commercial-use/

Yes it is the same ISIN (XS1054714248) surprised that one says 90 and another says 89.
My point though was that the current sp weakness as akin to when the share price was back in June when the price of the bond was trading between the 71 to 78 range. Think if they keep to their past practice of update Investors monthly you should see an update in the next week or so. Aside from that the Q3 trading update should come in by 31st October where hopefully all this mess will be cleaned up.