Member Info for notaflipper

This is the link I used
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1054714248-international-personal-finance-plc-5-75-14-21

Fluorouracil (FU or 5FU) is one of the most commonly used drugs to treat cancer (breast cancer, head and neck cancers, anal cancer, stomach cancer, colon cancer and some skin cancers). So tbh looking the use of this dug is just too common across all cancer types. It usually has side effects in 10% of cases which the use of DYPD helps to alert to avoid usage.

Cancer rate in Germany is 313.1 per 100,000 . So with a population size of 82,540,450 you could guesstimate that the rough number of cancer cases is 258,434 in Germany of which 80% would qualify for this reimbursement so roughly 206,747. However to understand the commercial value and addressable market some guidance is needed from the Company as to how much of a % of cancer patients would get the test as presumably it will not be a standard test.

The caving in of the share price since August contrasts with the bond price falling from 94.5% to 90.5%. Think this is the first period since the beginning of the year that there's been no disclosable shorts. The half year report stated that a bond financing team had already been appointed and had been underway for the last few months. With the Company already explaining how they will respond to COVID, I think this is the main concern. The Company has stated that they hope to conclude this activity this year. So probably by the update to be given in October or November if they succeed. Hopefully the clearing of the shorts is indicative of their chances. Key thing as well will be how the general market sentiment changes to the Chancellor's winter plans later today.

Millenium which had increased its short to 0.92% on the 16th Sep has now closed its short

No shorts remain on IPF above monitoring threshold of 0.5%
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1YKG049/

I believe a past presentation referenced increasing capacity in blocks of 10,000 where a guestimate on this BB was made on this site that each block would add circa £500k to revenue. Looks like the Q&A will be a bit more eagerly anticipated.

You've sold out and are looking the share to trade down. Period

With the AGM starting at 16:00 there should be still time for one further RNS tomorrow before the AGM which I am expecting. The formal proxy note to shareholders is quite bland so expecting the main interesting parts to come in the Q&A

Barclays was at one point 10% down today but seems to recovering much of its losses and now only circa 3.75% down. Usually we follow the trendline of Barclays and so one would have supposed that we should bounce back from the 55p area which has traditionally been a resistance area for most of the period since June.

So given that we know that the current broker targets have discounted for any significant returns from the IONA Nx, Clarigene COVID test and US expansion as per today's RNS...so any news update, given the vacuum that has even flummoxed the brokers, should have a positive effect...PIs have taken today, the day before the fecking long-awaited Q&A with AR, to sell out. Heaven help us if we get any actual numbers from IR!

Appreciate that the market today is a bit bearish with Financial stocks however the current sp is now lower I think than before the c.£45 million in polish tax that was repaid. This comprised of c.£35 million that IIPF paid in January 2017 in order to appeal the tax authority decisions, plus associated interest of c.£10 million. With collections effectiveness following the positive trend reported since the June reaching 96+% of pre-Covid expectations it seems a bit overdone.

I think the significance of the quote "we have a strong pipeline of US-oriented product and technology" is referring to the this initial agreement with IBL can be expanded further to include their SARS-CoV-2 test and also to include the IONA Nx NIPT.

Not sure what the Investor Comms were thinking to include an 18 page slide deck on another Company and another product to substantiate the 500k claim but there's some further education for you.

Some jitters this morning however should hopefully some positions being taken by early afternoon

It is still not clear in my mind the reason for the "cagey" and at times deliberately underplayed comms. I doubt that this is completely due to past history with respect to the guidance to shareholders on the robustness of the legal case. Hopefully the next month reveals some reason why. It seems that the AGM Q&A has been a rethink of the past Investor communications strategy.

Correspondence from IPF Investor Relations re Sunday Time article:

"The feature in the Sunday Times was disappointing when we reported an improving operational performance post Covid which has been challenging and the strong capital position and cash flows generated. To our investors we have reiterated that our near-term priority is the refinancing of the 2021 Eurobond. We are actively preparing for this having appointed debt advisors and intend to undertake the refinancing during the remainder of 2020. We will continue to update the market when appropriate."

As Whitebox Advisors LLC had reduced their short to 0.43% they are no longer being tracked by Short Tracker as they do not track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. So no way of knowing if they will still continue the trend or just hold position.

Usually whenever there is an economic recession there is commonly a 20% reduction in births as people are worried about their livelihoods. Whether cabin fever trounces this trend really gets the boys at the ONS really interested we'll see.

Word is getting out and will be interesting to see the BB in next few days. I still think the buying pressure is more from those close to the Company and due to a leak. Little time now for any additional news before the AGM and I am eager to know where the excess funds from the fundraising this summer has gone. I suspected we would have heard of some other expansion.

The Half Year reports would be hard stop for finally getting the commercial progress from the Company. However I cannot imagine they could do a Q&A and keep on deferring questions till then. So hopefully there will finally be the detail supplied. Interesting the financials would also hopefully re-rate the Company and provide a revised broker rating. So if there was going to be a cheeky offer it would have to be before then. Unlikely but wouldn't it be lovely for LTHs.

Didn't someone else go on, and on, about how we were going to have a vaccine this year and we were too late to the game?

Have to admit the numbers quoted in the ITT are quite amazing when one considers the other economic challenges. Most COVID stocks have seen significant rises this week and to be honest the recent rise is in line with the general trading pattern when compared with others. I think the main questions that the 'herd' needs is more details on throughput, capacity and contracts. YGEN have a best in class 2-gene PCR test yet need to demonstrate how this is not 'old technology' when compared to others like GDR and Avacta. Hopefully the session on the 22nd provides the much-awaited quarterly update as it would be strange to miss this opportunity and only provide this alongside the Half-Year results.

Separately the YourGene website has been quite putting more detail on the IONA Nx offering. It is surprising here that the clinical performance of this test when compared to Illumina's Veriseq test has not been more trumpeted. With arguably having the best clinical performing test on either the TMO or Illumina platform you do have to scratch your head when you see the usual low volumes.
https://www.yourgene-health.com/nipt/iona-nx/for-clinical-laboratories/clinical-performance

Fact that this is a leaky ship before any significant RNS of financial calendar event isn't a great reflection for the Company. Stale PIs seem to be rolling off on the way up.

Seems like a tale of two parts:
Millennium International Management LP have increased their short position up 0.07% to 0.80. This follows their negativity on the FIN sector with a £11m bet again Bank of Ireland.
White Box however seems to have reduced their short position from 0.56% to 0.43%.

I personally still think somethings still happening in the back with how close the sp has wedded to the 60p mark. I do hope the Company does give an update sooner that the normal monthly trading progress to break this trading holding pattern

An interesting part of the article was the commentary from Numis analyst James Hamilton who observed that the markets are "estimating that financial markets are implicitly pricing-in a 77% probability that the company will go under or suffer a permanent drop in capital, or both...We do not see this probability as reasonable and therefore believe IPF offers very good value."

IPF "remains a high-margin market leader with probably the best fintech lending business in the world."