Member Info for notaflipper

Maybe I have been seeing Margin Call too many times but it seems a bit convenient timing for Whitebox.

The Investor Chronicle article from the 8th Sep is similar to the FT you need to have a subscription to read has the following summary with a "Hold" rating:

"Peer past the predictably weak headline figures for International Personal Finance’s (IPF) six months trading to June, and the tone is upbeat. Management asserted the foundations for “a quick return to profitability and long-term growth” are in place, while analysts at broker Numis cited a “rapidly improving picture”."

The FT tear sheet shows that 3 analysts offering 12 month price targets for International Personal Finance Plc have a median target of 195.00, with a high estimate of 247.00 and a low estimate of 165.00. The median estimate represents a 214.52% increase from the last price of 62.00. The 3 broker ratings date from the 10th Sep have two as "Buy" vs one has "Hold".

Ultimately this comes down to a judgement call whether you believe the refinance will happen before Year End. I have actually been a bit surprised by the scale of the sell-off this week where as opposed to other stocks the market didn't want to see past the last 6 months to the very bullish statements. Hopefully this will give the Company further impetus to provide a succinct statement to the market on progress to bring an end to the speculation. Some Director purchases will not go amiss as well please?!

https://twitter.com/shortdatauk/status/1304446377821384707?s=20

Dare we say bring on next week?

Seems stuck despite the number of trades happening each day. Background transfer? With support at the 60p level does anyone know when the Shore Capital forecast coverage will be released to potentially get this going? Saying that with Peel Hunt retaining their 'buy' rating though reducing their target from 270p to 165p who knows what will be needed.

Given the high volume of trades and the relative sp stability (today obviously not yesterday) I am inclined to think there's a large backroom transfer of shares happening

Seems to be an over reaction by the market to what was obviously going to be difficult reading which discounted the underlying robustness and refinancing progress commentary. Although there will be some frankly obvious shorting commentary to taken advantage it does seem that the sp is settling down as well as the bond price which has marginally changed today. Hopefully we should see some delayed bounce back this afternoon

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1054714248-international-personal-finance-plc-5-75-14-21

The World Health Organization has said on Friday 04th Sep that it does not expect widespread vaccinations against coronavirus until the middle of next year, stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.

“We are not expecting to see widespread vaccination until the middle of next year,” spokeswoman Margaret Harris told journalists at a briefing in Geneva.

“This phase 3 must take longer because we need to see how truly protective the vaccine is and we also need to see how safe it is,” she added referring to vaccine clinical trials.

I was under the impression that Dr Little has done amazingly well (as other Directors and employees) financially from the slight 'wobbly' on the litigation. Can't see anything wrong with a PI shareholder or potential investor asking questions to understand better the investment appraisal here given that the incredibly poor investor communications and nor how long LTHs have been waiting for any annual revenue increases not to be eroded through increased share dilution. The performance (volume, communications, sp) has been poor to mediocre at best.

Twix is about as irrelevant a holder as it comes. What's boring more is to read about his views and his mono share trading

I am bit reluctant to answer this question fully as I was assured by Walbrook that the full commercial roll-out and commercialisation route, website update and the quality comparison of the IONA Nx test vs the VerifiSeq test would be announced alongside the commercial roll-out. At present we have no knowledge on how good the test is vs the traditional IONA test nor the Illumina VerifiSeq test which is bit incredible as you would have thought it would be part of a sales pitch.

The IONA Nx test development was agreed as part of the Illumina Legal Patent Settlement in 2018. I think from memory the sp was 16.5p when agreed. Long story short the IONA Nx is to allow YourGene access to the countries covered by the Illumina/Sequenom Patent Pool

In terms of specific countries China, Japan, Brazil and USA (incl. Alaska). Within Europe, YourGene is already helping to transition existing IONA customers to the IONA Nx latform. This inevitably involves retro-fitting their sequencers and the Company has yet to clarify whether they will be providing trade financing towards this. For new investors the background here is that Premiatha to aid their land grab did provide credit facility for these labs to buy sequencers from ThermoFisher. Now these need to be retro-fitted. At the same time they are installing the test to run as part of our own laboratory service run from the facilities in Manchester.

Could go on but as before it is for the Company to answer this.

On a side note the large trades always on or near the mid-price seems very neat and looks like the moving out of PIs for IIs is underway. Let's just hope it is not December 2021 for some cheer at this rate.

Who knows to be honest. I recall some posters here (e.g. ghia) had been commenting on the sp movements since April. It could be that the acquisition was scheduled earlier in the year and COVID has distracted the Company hence the placing being known for some time.

To be honest share dilution is not the issue but Free Float is. So looking forward the question is whether this will contract with the current volume or be expanded by further placings done in the same nature. Usually there's a pump before an acquisition however which has never happened here. The continued tight trading pattern and sp suggests some more background news to come. It would genuinely amaze me that continued organic growth would be allowed as this just increases the eventual take-out but we would have to see what happens before Year End.

lol Jadam great analysis but I wouldn't waste your time. Most PIs left are LTHs and are heavily loaded here for reasons now understood and will not genuinely engage. Cue the highly aggressive nature of this BB nowadays which demands one be a zealot accompanied by casually slipped investment horizons and selective sp analysis . The thing which you left off your list is the lack of volume. Despite the various analysis and marketing efforts the volume has remained low. Usually with such persistent lack of volume you would see the MMs drop the Ask to stimulate demand etc. Surprisingly the sp has held up with a floor established at this level on quiet days. Even on days with RNS are issued the the volume is relative to the cumulative news given but same sp as a quiet day. Given the shares in circulation the idea that individual PIs selling into a spike is to blame seems a simplistic idea. It could just be that some feelers went out to ask who would fund the acquisition drive and as this was known any news was forward sold for the last few months and nothing more than that. The placing being done at a discounted price then to fair value. However with the acquisition placing now over the analysis and news yesterday should have had another reaction with more IIs coming on-board who were not involved in the placing. The sp trading pattern remains odd and so I suspect more is still happening in the back.

Investment horizons have slipped again yet still hopeful to find news of where the excess capital raised will go before the AGM to provide some cheer. Thereafter the Half Year trading update in October and the much-awaited Quarterly update which will come just in time to coincide with the Chancellor's hard times forecast. Lovely.

Should get blue soon.

There'll inevitably be a pull back in the morning perhaps to mid-60s to shake out the soft hands. Usually the MMs have been doing this as part of the 1st part of the trading session. Long-term good but think there'll be a few trading opportunities for some on the way to £1

Over 73p with Spreadex

Should get interesting once 70p is breached as that has been the ceiling. With that gone who knows where this will go? An amazing RNS showing recovery of busing to pre-Covid levels with a nice 45m bonus.

CooperD you are filtered now.
Please afford me the same courtesy. Thank you and best wishes in your investment.

Yep the shares have been bought cheap by the Directors and IIs. Try thinking how much the sp would have been if they did somethings a bit differently. One can ramp, ramp away and let other PIs do the same in another direction. SP will only move now in small trading pattern till any further news as per trading pattern following Euciligene purchase. However this is my reading for the last couple of years, yours is different and the market will do what it wants. Wait another 8 months and the same dilution for purchase will happen again and so on. This year could be different with the COVID and Illumina NIPT news. Frustration has been expressed by PIs which is this strategy, plain to see if one tries, locks in PIs for many years and ultimately for a smaller profit that they would get elsewhere at the end of this strategy unless they massively load up as per Directors. Only problem is you then have savings locked in an illiquid stock through the coming economic uncertainty.

This is the IR approach chosen by Dr Chang et al. You can see the sp performance from Euciligene to see what would typically happen to the sp despite some of the same ramping ramblings here. After that purchase the sp went nowhere for one year. The company has a bigger capitalisation but the sp doesn't move. The Directors have a shed load of holdings which they've been able to buy through not pumping this sp through crap PR, added to that options at depressed sp. Good for the Directors as you can use salary to buy shares and then wait comfortably for a take-out at circa 40p. PIs get diluted and hence you have more than not mainly LTHs who have had to increase the their holdings significantly in last few years. They get locked in and then cannot sell their increased holdings as the stock is illiquid and will more the sp with low volumes due to poor PR.

Only difference this year is COVID and what the numbers will say. Also with all these new product streams whether TMO and Illumina will allow this to grow organically for another 2-3 years and pay a higher take-out. Let's hope for some cheer. ATB

I got the same reply from RM however to be honest I think the part that of the annual leave doesn't ring true. Although IPF do not have an external media relations firm the idea that a RNS is delayed due to an employee's annual leave seems a bit daft.

@ragnarlothbrok just to let you know I heard back from 'investors@ipfin.co.uk'. They stated that they will be providing a trading update detailing high level performance for July by the end of this week.

Agreed.
That said there was a joke (perhaps made only in half jest) that we could become a £500m company with a sp of 20p. So who knows. Directors have the benefit over PIs as they can use their salary to load up on shares till Take-Out whereas PIs need to keep on adding from funds elsewhere to achieve the same past forecasts.
Seems there's been a structured background playbook on the sp for a while now and we just have to let it run its course. Still expecting more news before AGM next month so hopefully we'll find out where excess placing funds will go before then.