Member Info for notaflipper

Thanks @Stats2, Page 81 of the 5th Aug Filing confirms that the loan was underwritten by SVB UK (based in the City EC2N 2AX), and not SVB US based in Santa Clara, California. So, the Yellen statement is less relevant here than Hunt's, however both seem to have a consistent approach. That is, that no protection will be given to SVB's shareholders, and limited protection and financing will be provided till to Depositors whilst an acquisition is completed.

My understanding is that the £5m loan in Jan 2022 and this was credited to the Cash figures of £8.5m is July. So, as most of us who have taken any loan, the £5m would have been released to a SVB account, and then drawn upon by YGEN. As Cash stood at £2.4m in September, it is fair to infer that most of this £5m was drawn upon before the December placing to raise £5m. In retrospect, YGEN should have taken more in January to have avoided the placing need once the credit markets had turned sour. We will have to see how the market reacts, however the relationship to YGEN seems therefore more as a Debtor, than Debtor. And so, the loan treated as an Asset that will be sold now to a potential Buyer. Hopefully the market will either received some targeted RNS or macro news to allow a mature processing of these events. GLA

Yes, Hunt has confirmed that he will provide emergency funding whilst a sale to a High Street bank is arranged. Apparently they have been given 24hrs to essentially take a position on the credit worthiness of loans for example to YGEN, and then make an offer, probably to the detriment of SVB's shareholders. So, though the market will be muted there should no widespread panic till progress of a potential sale is updated. Again, for the reasons below, as YGEN is only a Debtor and not a suspected Depositor there should be some insulation.

Neither Avion Pharmaceuticals, nor Landstead have issued any past news of any financing sourced via SVB. Not, is it expected that Immupharma had their cash savings in SVB as a depositor. So, no, despite IMM's various challenges this is not one of them. Hopefully there will be some macro news before the UK Markets open which will outline some short term financing to be supplied by the UK Government, whilst SVB UK (separate entity to SVB US) is found. Hopefully this should calm the markets to allow a recovery of the losses this last week.

The major risk is if YourGene Health was using SVB as their commercial corporate account. The risk that some other Life Science and Tech start ups have been raising is about their cash flow and savings with SVB. Here, what probably will happen is that some short term financing will be provided by the UK Government till a buyer is found. Amazingly Forbes praised SVB as one of the Best Banks of 2022.

Here, my understanding is that the £5m loan in Jan 19, 2022 was for the purposes of providing non-dilutive funding to pursue future accretive growth opportunities including potential licensing and merger and acquisition activities, allowing for faster deal execution and lower transaction costs. Cash stood at £8.5m is July, £2.4m in September and December saw a placing to raise £5m. So, I suspect that SVB was just a commercial lender to YGEN, and not their nominal Business Bank. So, the money has come, and gone, as it were. With the remaining risk that SVB may call the loans in early which I suspect is not possible before the end of the 3 year term in Jan 2025, by which time YGEN needs to be sold or risk further dilution.

The loan was repayable over three years with an interest-only period until April 2022 after which interest is payable at a commercially competitive rate. So, here the risk is if new terms would be offered by a new lender in the event that SVB is wound down and sold to another lender. That said, I do not think this happened in the Financial Crisis, so I suspect probably will not happen here. The main risk is to depositors again, which I do not think YGEN is. And again, it just puts more pressure on YGEN being sold in the near term, rather than dragging this on.

Would a RNS on Monday morning be great, yes. Though most LTHs would know this is not to be expected given YGEN's woeful communications. . And do, it may be an idea to bombard the wretched Investor Relations who have done so much damage to PIs savings here. Hopefully there will be some recovery next week as calmer reflection prevails.

As most, if not all of the £5 million ($6.8 million) loan facility has already been drawn down, then the risk of a potential SVB collapse is if the loan will be called in, to shore up SVB's balance sheet before the 3yr loan facility expires. This then causing a further cash call for YGEN.

One only has to recall back to the Financial Crisis on what happened to the commercial/residential loans on the Bank that went bust. These were then sold to other banks at massive discounts. Main fear then was that the underlying assets were not worth the loans provided. As already shared, YGEN is expected to be sold (cheaply) before the PIs have a chance to express their anger, with the BoD heavily profiting through the cheap share placing. So, it should be expected that when the 3-yr loan facility expires, YGEN will already be sold and it will be a mute point on the potential renewal terms.
The immediate risk of a capital repayment demand seems distant as though Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is a Santa Clara, California-based company, the RNS announcement was accompanied by a statement from Nooman Haque, head of life sciences and healthcare at Silicon Valley Bank for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. So, it is expected that the loan was underwritten by SVB's EMEA division.

In Sky News today, this division has clarified that "Silicon Valley bank UK has been an independent subsidiary since August 2022 with a separate balance sheet to the SVB Financial Group and an independent UK Board of directors".

I have recently topped up further, hopeful for news, however YGEN never seems to disappoint with the expected news flow post massive placing not materialising as of yet.

Added more yesterday, as hoping for some news in next month.

10,223,491 shares with 3.06% of voting rights

@maidit308, need to look at it from the context that Landstead held 14.70% pre 18th Nov '22.
Still a holder, and am hoping for a miracle to recoup here. Think this we will still have to await till towards end of January once outcome from meetings around the JP Morgan Conference and the Biotech Showcase in San Francisco, and on US rights for P140.
GLA

Exactly my reasoning Threeskins. The first half trading results, and forward looking statements, were counting on a few NIPT contracts being converted in H2, as well as cost cutting measures of £5M. So, as immense as this placing is, it only guarantees a financial runway till Calendar Q3 2023. So, either it is (a) slow and steady progress to potentially drag us into Q4 with no further funding; or (b) a further placing come Q4 2023, or finally (c) something else. As mentioned, it takes a great deal of bravery to have one final gamble, and then only if you have the funds. We'll soon find out in next 3 months, as bar a few shakes one would hope to see a steady sp rise if it is Option C.

P.S. Some great analysis by Institution. Thank you for taking the time to write this up, as still digesting.

Cheers Natdan, hope you and other LTHS have been well. I genuinely do feel sad for VIY, and NIPT LTHs here given that LR took over when price was at 16p with a market capitalisation £100m+. This was after I recall the terrible news of hearing of the High Court loss, and when the sp fell to 4p. So what should have been a distressed sell quickly afterwards was then co-opted by LR's grand scheme, which has sadly culminated in recent events. This involved diluting the shareholders for expansion with a bloated BoD and Management Team, with the defence being that the market capitalisation was still being maintained. For LTHs this meant further top ups to average down, only to be rewarded at the end of it with this placing. I had at one point 2m+ shares in 2018. So, when it meant something. Though I sold most between 2018, and the Covid gold rush, I had let a minority 100k ride in an ISA as I had hoped that they would have achieved Free Cash Flow by now. So, I do have sympathies with the pain being suffered. I had tried to avoid commenting as the quality of the BB has worsened this last few years, and at times it has just seemed more of a p*ss*ng context. As others have mentioned the only game in town is to follow the greedy BoD who have shafted the LTHs who supported hem through the Court Case. Essentially they have now taken over the Company and will probably look for a sale within the next year at 7p+. Only game in town, and perhaps no tickets left for those that have had to top up over the last few years.

Shame to see that predictions on LR have come to pass. Amazing to think that Options to employees were being offered at 19p in 2020. Hopefully there'll be a big bounce once the placing is finished, though I suspect that there'll be some profit taking before we get to LR's new average.

It is strange though, as neither posts had any swearing, and so on compared to other posts here. So not sure why in the 1st instance there was no challenge before reporting. Oh well, sure they're bigger problems in the world

strange my post deleted, oh well

FWIW I think the lettuce had better personality, and staying power. [7k subscribers]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm-RE95lKJ0

You should, one of the posters mentioned there writes the same as you. Enjoy!

@Nolupus, I am aware of these views being expressed in parallel by sicilian_kan and nobbygnome on ADVFN. So, from having a Phase 2b clinical trial to having to start again at Phase 1 with Gen2. These are really bold speculations, even coming from concerned and diligent bystanders, on a few keywords. Where I struggle with accepting the same conclusions derived is that the Phase 3 trials were originally scheduled for 2021. And so, there multiple "guidance meetings" between Avion and the FDA where Avion submitted the methodology for assessing PK as part of the Phase 3 trial, and confirmed previous submissions to FDA on the study design, clinical end points and approval process. So, the shock has been that the expected steps and timetable towards commencing the Phase 3 trial this year would have gone this past guidance and therein mis-stepping the Directors who took part in the placing at 5p and Avion who took part in the placing at 11p.

Whilst having a Phase 2b is a distinct possibility, it has to be put in the context of the risk vs reward and current market capitalisation. The revamped website however does not however reflect this ambiguity and frequently refers to Lupozor being in Phase 3 with a commencement study start of 2022/23
https://www.immupharma.co.uk/pipeline/

The FDA response earlier this month, recommended assessing the potential to use higher dosing to optimise the clinical benefit to Lupus patients and to maximise efficacy. The implication for some that has been repeated at length is that a Phase 2b Clinical trial will need to be undertaken at great cost and length for the purpose of determining the safe and effective dose by defining warnings, precautions and adverse reactions that are associated with the drug at the prescribed dosage range

For me, the key take-away today is that Avion and IMM are still in discussion. Which given the narrative by some is an unexpected positive in itself. Given that PIs are dwarfed by IIs here, the lack of volume selling today shows their confidence in the statement given.

I think even our most concerned bystanders need to also to recognise that IMM has undertake 2 Phase 2b trials in the past. Once in 2009, and then again in 2011. Though the exact commencement date of the last Phase 2b trial is unknown, it was commenced in Q3 2011. After successful completion IMM was granted approval for Phase 3 on 3rd November 2011, with a Special Protocol Assessment ("SPA") and "Fast Track" designation.

If a delay of a Quarter, or 2, is the chief risk here then as some have suggested the market reaction seems quite severe given compared to the potential return.

With a Benchmark sp price of 14p in the Landstead deal, TM will understand that the need to reassure the markets. The written FDA response was received on the 19th Sep, so my understanding is that the Sponsor (Avion) has now 5 days to request "clarifications only" from the FDA, after which they (OTAT) will have 20 days to arrange a written response or tele-conference on the request for clarification. So, we may get another RNS in the next week or so, on the way forward.

Extract from "Current activities and outlook" section
The last six months have been pivotal for the Company, positively concluding the PK study of Lupuzor™ ("P140"). Post the recent written response from the FDA, in respect to the Lupuzor™ Phase 3 protocol, we continue to have POSITIVE discussions with our partner, Avion, on the way forward.

The new fundraising, supported by existing and new shareholders, allows us to further invest in the other parts of our product portfolio, whilst being focused on preserving cash where required.

@Halfbutt, appreciate that there were some disappointingly large trades, however still suspect it is not a leak. The markets were always going to be red this week, more so perhaps on stocks with little clarity. As I appreciate that your disappointed today, I will leave it there and just wish you and other holders well and hopefully a good end to a very long journey.