Member Info for notaflipper

With the UK LSE Market closed today, we can only look elsewhere to see what will happen on Tuesday in the absence of any Company-specific RNS.

Realistically, despite the soap opera between both camps here, there may be some catch-up in the wider market to falls in the US and Asian markets after Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Central Bank, said it would continue to raise interest rates to tackle soaring prices. This has lead Japan's Nikkei 225 index to close 2.7% lower on Monday in Tokyo, Australia's ASX 200 to close down by around 2%, and the Hang Seng to close 0.8% lower in Hong Kong.

This will no doubt be conflated with the Armageddon-like broadcasting on the cost of living crisis which will even affect middle-income earners (£45k+) come Winter. Thankfully, the Unions have suggested a practical solution of having 4 more Bank Holidays to deal with this crisis, in a year heavily inflated with Jubilee weekend celebrations, following on from 2-years of state subsidised furlough.

The main news this next week will be the probable inauguration of Ms Truss as the next PM on 5th September. With a limited window between then, and the next MPC sitting on the 15th September, we should expect a whole raft of unfunded grand schemes to give the impression of hitting the ground running. So we should see a potential increase in the FTSE following of upwards of 3%, which CPI will no doubt follow.

The most realistic scenario here is of a further tight trading pattern till the next Trading Update, or debt clearance RNS. For the ad nauseum of posts here, the sp has essentially moved sideways in its excitement compared to other shares. So, given that we are nearing the bottom of an upwards channel, there could be limited opportunity to position before the sp follows the expected rise, rinse and repeat at 30p.

GLA.

With the UK having a bank holiday on Monday 29th, but the US not, it may be the case that the correspondence has already been given to IMM. Hopefully, we will get an outside LSE Market Hours RNS, and not have to await till sometime on Tuesday 30th. Too late now either way. GLA

I appreciate the motivations, however the binary nature of some of this commentary seems frequently to overlook that there has been some risk mitigation already to make this less of a binary decision. It is as if for example, the Lupuzor/P140 Pharmacokinetic ("PK") study passed in April 2022 had not happened. Nor that there has been some confidence building measures such as a the stake by Avion, nor that the FDA decision will be given in correspondence without the need for being face-to-face.

Also, the commentary here frequently seems to overlook why the original P3 trials failed. Similarly, that there was a recent previous Type C meeting in 2021 which already agreed that the new international Phase 3 clinical trial protocol would include the presence of the biomarker before being allowed into the P3 study. So, as this protocol has already been accepted by the FDA and the PK Study substantiated the human dosing; then the commentary of a binary "unknown and unknowable" decision being repeated ad nauseum by some recent past vocal supporters seems a bit disingenuous at times. I have to admit I have concerns over TM's performance, length till P3 results and share dilution as a result of funding requirements at arguably lower placings than needed. However, as my sp aspirations are only to the teens then this seems possible with some short-term holding of one's nerves, (and nose).
GLA

Yes, these Options came in 11 June 2020, with an exercise price of 11 pence. The result of the fundraising agreement in August was to amend the exercise price from 11 pence to 5 pence, with the trade-off being to increase the number of Options held by L1 and Lind from 25,640,254 to 56,408,558.

The narrative being suggested here in different phases is that there is a 'death spiral' by liquidity agreements, with cautious profit taking and selling in anticipation of a negative FDA. Finally, that there is some positioning to sell into any rise to neuter any significant rise for PIs. There is much narrative that can be presented in support of this narrative.

That said, these circa 26m options could have been sold for the same 1p to 2 p profit any time in 2020 and 2021, as the sp was higher. So might be an idea to keep in mind only 1m options have been exercised before we start to panic.

If you wanted to be cynical you could say that they would be forward sold before admission on the Tuesday 30 August 2022. The date is significant as the agreed date from the FDA for providing its written responses is 29 August 2022. Equally the shares can be 'lent' to Market Makers to facilitate Long/Short derivative positions.

The sp has spike on a few occasions to circa 8.5p since Dec '22. So to be fair there has been a few occasions to flip and lock in profits at these levels - which are still not far off historical lows sub-50p. So, if this was the target then it is strange to have left it so late.

Some well wishing bystanders to be honest are wasted on this BB, and should share their sage advice on the CINE BB as I am sure it will be as equally appreciated, as here.

Though I appreciate the concern, we have to also bear in mind that nothing has changed. At the last placing on the 10th August, insiders such as Timothy Paul McCarthy (1,200,000), Lisa Baderoon (400,000) and Tim Franklin (400,000) bought at 5.00. So the narrative here has been of getting shares on the cheap for an expected spike in the next month. I still think the last placing could have been delayed. I would be surprised if despite these concerns they didn't let this to clear into the teens, once the PIs get sucked in. So would hope the brakes were not put on before 8.5p as since December.

Agree with the harshness comment. If you've played the AIM game long enough, likelihood is that you've had a wipe-out at one point in your history. For me it was FastJet (FJET).

Wrt CINE, there were many who believed it would go bust, but still bought into the incredible rally that took it to close @ 82p last September 2021. Many observers kicked themselves for missing out on the rally, from being sub-20p in December '20. So expect that there's some "schadenfreude" from those observers on those that got caught. Similar sob stories all over (e.g., GDR and Novacyt).

Back to CPI, it looks that the 25p support level is still being tested daily, it is holding. Could it break, perhaps, but it would be surprising if this fell below circa 23.6p for long. Main worry is short-term momentum however there could be market rally once the PM is confirmed, as no doubt there'll be some unfunded promises on Day One.

So it looks like that M&G Investment Management Ltd. have then completely sold their 33,927,765 shares [2.01%] as reported on Bloomberg register 5th May 2022? Looks like the Morning Star report on the 31st July, that M&G Investment Management Ltd. held 2.35 % of shares with 39,629,419 shares was wrong. We'll have to see what the coming days bring in clarity and eventual settling post TU.

Incidentally it looks like St James is flat, Schroders slightly down and Aviva slightly up on the aside compared to past declarations shared. Not sure of MarThone, if new? Though interesting observations, the main risk here is lack of momentum, however a nibble every other day may eventually pay out.

The 20 day Moving Average here is 25.23p, the 50 day Moving Average is 24.34p and the 100 day Moving Average is 23.65p.

If you didn't fall for the regular hype, and kept some ammunition you can keep on buying into the daily dips and suffer the minimal paper loss as realistically 22.6p to 23p would be the worst case scenario here (sorry Aim). You may not call the bottom, but your average would be fair. Main concern here would be that though the uptrend is confirmed, the odds on chances are that this may trade sideways in a tight trading pattern till the next Trading Update to confirm disposals and debt clearance.

FWIW it there should be some macro relief with the new PM (Ms Truss most likely) by early September and we could see a market spike, before the calls for another General Election, Scottish IndyRef start and the EU give a good dose of reality that a Customs Union is the only way to resolve the NI settlement.

So could be the case of rinse and repeat come mid-September, with a rise back to 30p. Just my opinion as b4 FWIW and do feel for those who have been under water since last Autumn expecting a recovery as must be harsh.

FWIW I suspect to that Sharehead is an alias of a regular and long time poster here, which spam this board 24/7. Stands to reason as you have the same rampers here who have regularly embarrass themselves with their predictions, only to swear off LSE (for Discord), and then have to return via aliases. We'll have to see what happens this time round, but as per the sp, I think this more protracted project.

Some people have short, some are Long. To be quite honest PIs on a BB will not make much difference either way. Plurality of views is appreciated, and irrational intolerance seems wasted opportunity to understand the risks with one's own investment. We only have to think of the amount of posts 2 weeks ago saying that the mid-20s range was never to be seen again, with time running out to buy sub-30p. Wonder where those same posters have gone today.

Main news in next 3 weeks is the new PM decision by 5th September. With any end of uncertainty there should be an appreciation in the FTSE index of possibly an increase of at least 3%, where stocks like CPI which trend the market may benefit.

Price has dropped today because of the inflation reports which came out today and shows UK consumer price inflation has an annual rate of 10.1% in July, up from 9.4% and just ahead of the forecasts of 9.8%. So markets will be red today.

For all the posts to be frank the sp has followed a tight trading pattern this year from a low of circa 20p to then circa 26p, with the trading range being reset to between 25.8 to 30p after the trading update. Hardly the wild swings of 2021/22, where fortunes could be made in the space of 2 weeks.

There'll be some who would have followed the rampers purchasing at mid-40s believing the hype that this was the last opportunity before the December update and then topping up all the way down to 20p. So a plurality of thoughts is always welcome on any BB. The upward channel though seems now confirmed. The main concern here is how long will the sp recovery back to the 40s will take, not whether it will get there. For example it could take as long as until the December trading update, or till confirmation of the sale of the two businesses: Capita Real Estate and Infrastructure and GL Hearn, with some confirmation of debt clearance before then. Failing that confirmation of reinstatement of dividends next year with debt clearance.

So best perhaps could be to put your buy orders in at the bottom of the range and forget about it for a few months. I am sure the same posters will be here, or on Discord, having the same arguments when you come back. ATB

It slipped back to fill the gap, should close over 122p today. GLA

Cheers for this. The slides are equally as informative for those that do not have the patience to view the video.

Key messages for me are:
1) Outlicensing of Lupuzor TM for lupus (ROW) and CIDP in H1 2023. CIDP should have been outlicensed this year, as this has been mentioned since 2021.
2) Lupuzor TM Phase 3 lupus study commencement in H2 2022
3) FDA/IND submission for CIDP study and orphan drug designation in H1 2023

Though TM pointed out that the current sp reflects a highly discounted valuation (currently < £20m) on a peer comparison & DCF basis. So, 2 comparable AIM biotech companies with Phase 3 asset (valued at £57m & £111m as at 29 July 2022). However IMM's valuation is £16m.

Basically the sp is in the toilet, at historical lows, with most PIs just holding out for the FDA decision. There seems little internal reflection of the responsibility for this, but if the peer comparison is fair then the sp should be 30p+ which reflects the latest research note, though not the recent placing reality.

Well it really matters who you are inviting into the hot tub doesn't it?! Problem is if you are in a dinner party and say that you are investing in a hot tub, it is considered code that you are swingers. So it is important to specify the volume capacity, as once you start noticing them...there's swingers all around. Just the other day some poster said "for me, I see 50p only as the starting line". Another said that they see 40p nailed on by September. Fair to say there has been a lot of hype.

I topped up on the dip, but await further as the problem here now is the same as after the December finals. Which is that the market has been informed of solid progress but that it is WIP. Lots of material to waddle through, but worries on pre-tax profits being hit by £92.5 million worth of goodwill impairments and slow debt clearance have come through.

So then the sp will trade with market conditions now; where 2 macro worries can be volatile (a) recession fears on the back of inflationary worries and rate hikes; (b) worsening geo-political tensions with no resolution in Ukraine crisis till end of year and new tensions with China. So, I am bit baffled that the FTSE is not below 7,000. Will wait to see whether there is a shake in the market in the next week.

Ask is falling in the back and testing 27p, so perhaps it was the right call and prudent expectation.
Report was solid but reflects trading update and 2021 full-year results, that profits in 2022 to be significantly weighted to the second half. They seem to need to sell a lot in order to pay off the net debt, as only c. 45% of disposals are going to debt reduction. So the c. £83m followed no reduction in full trading results in December. And so even sales of the Capita Commercial Insurance Services and Capita Managing Agency to Marco Capital Holdings as well as the sale of AMT Sybex (which sold for circa £40m) had to fund this figure. So you are looking at £200m+ worth of disposals in the last year, of which only £83m has gone to debt reduction.

As I said though, that was the fly in the soup for me. Solid otherwise but WIP otherwise. There were several of the regular rampers saying that we would be in the mid 30s by brunch where again they will have eggs on their faces for breakfast instead.

BoE's Governor's statement that inflation woes were solely Russia's fault does not reflect that there's £895 billion of QE (approximately half of this taking place since March 2020), and all of which will have to be paid by the kids. Only thing more funny is that both the PM, Chancellor are on holiday when he made that statement which they would have been informed about. Think the market will have to have a shake in general soon as the main news today is that the FTSE seems to be taking this in their stride.

Similar sentiments, and confirmed by large spread on opening. So could be flat day, and then it was the markets make of the BoE's Governor's commentary yesterday where the market is still not reacting.

Capita's reports are so big, and the structure so difficult to penetrate it makes summarisation difficult. But my impression was that it was pretty solid stuff, but the fireworks and re-rate will only happen in 2023. Let's see as could be the muted reaction is to stress PIs that loaded up on some of the hype here.

If you wanted to throw stones you could raise a concern as to how slow the debt reduction is, and that it is not coming down quick enough. For example, (a) Secure Solutions and Services (SSS) business sold to NEC Software Solutions UK for £62m; and (b) sale of Trustmarque to One Equity Partners for £115m. And this does not include other and more recent disposals. So I suspect most, if we were being fair, were expecting that net debt would come down close to £200m, rather than the circa £83m. So, some naysayers might ask by the time that the disposals reduce the debt what type of company Capita will be and given that the headline revenue growth is slowing?

Video presentation can be found here
https://www.capita.com/investors/results-reports-and-presentations

Bit of a drop in the Bid in the back. Perhaps fishing to catch stop losses before Investor Meeting at noon. Very depressing to be back at historical lows, especially for those who had bought in after the last placing expecting a positive news flow.

To be fair to Aim, you are seeing the FTSE turning negative following the USS Ronald Reagan mobilisation and missile launches over Taiwan. Apparently the last few years have not been interesting enough. For some reason, Capita IR seems to always pick the wrong time to update the market.
Interesting and balanced post by David Watkins, thanks.

Bid obviously has been lowered in the back, however it has not prompted any volume so looks like most PIs are looking past this to FDA decision which is expected to be positive. So perhaps a good opportunity for one final top up. Interesting interview on investor channel on expected decision https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-5IgpviOy8

Do hope this comes good for long suffering PIs here. All the best.

Investor Presentation on 4th Aug 2022 at 12:00pm BST, Click below to register.
https://investormeetcompany.com/immupharma-plc/register-investor

Should hopefully settle some nerves and clarify.
I do hope that someone asks why if a recent research note by Stanford Capital Partners said we should be 37p (before trials) and with positive results we should be at 70p+ thereafter a placing was then done at 5p, which was a c. 60% discount to the placing in December.