Member Info for notaflipper

Depends on how you are holding.
Long story short, the sp is @ 27p and there is no noticeable purchase from IIs, nor shorts closing. So there is a likelihood now that this could fall further, even temporarily.
If you are holding via spread bets then you would need to cover margin call commitments down to 22p in the Bid potentially. So if you have the cash then could hold, and cover. If not close some or all. However as a bounce back will be a few weeks away now the daily funding charges will just eat away.
If holding Ordinary Shares you could just weather the dip, hoping for Results to trigger a reversal. It seems that the market concern is that the level of debts is still £894m. With the level of cash received (circa £89m) the very best that this could come down to is £800m. However realistically I expect only circa £50m will be paid down to the debt and the rest will go to disposal fees and working capital. So there'll be some that worry there will need to be a fund raise, just simply because the disposals cannot clear the debt fast enough, without being revenue diminishing. Relegation from the FTSE250 also probably has meant that some tracker funds have also divested. Will it go up by the August trading update? Yes, but it may need a cathartic release of all the bad news getting out there beforehand. There'll be many in the last week, who will have sold at a loss to chase Energy stocks to recover losses. With POO at these levels even HUR has had past oil fields become viable and risen from sub 1p last May to 8p now. As I said if expecting military incursion to last till mid-March so POO (not yours) could have further to go. However I have always lost money with Oilers so not tempted.

It was the "rare" part which did you in, and stuck in the BBs memory.
Perhaps you would like to predict what will happen now to this year's Eurovision contest, given the confirmed invasion that some here said would never happen.
BTW Expecting hostilities to rumble on till mid-March as optimum for weather. We saw some news today of Russian naval ships issuing a NOTAM warning, in which it indicated that it was closing most of the neutral waters of the Sea of ??Azov. If this freezes over then expect to see more heavy army units crossing the sea hence keeping an eye out for the weather. So this with the Russian navy being mobilised have to expect now this will go on at least to Results.

Despite frustration over progress, the negativity could be overdone here as the all time sp low was 5p following frustration of the November Corporate Update over fears that the placing would below 5p. So with the funding now in place, and ever closer to the start of P3 trials, the current sp seems a bit low.

The current market capitalisation of £16,245,000 is nearly half of the placing price of 11 which valued the Company with a market capitalisation of £31,350,000. So despite the Astrazeneca progress you will still expect that there to be quite a bit of headroom here.

The Company itself has guesstimated the future sp via the Landstead financing deals. The "Benchmark Price" of the Dec 2021 Sharing Agreement was 14.6667 pence. The 2019 Landstead funding arrangement agreed a benchmark of 13.33p. I'm sure that the scientists involved would love to treat this as a lifestyle stock, welcomed as well by lifestyle investors only considering this stock as their retirement fund. The problem is that the failure to meet the benchmark price does have practical implications such as not receiving part of the 24 equal monthly settlement amounts (of £91,667) as per the Dec 2021 agreement. Shareholders here can see the cycle of confetti stock that follows this cycle of poor delivery of sp performance following the 2019 financing deal.
The delivery has been poor against past expectation of commercialisation/partnering on P140-CIDP and BioAMB given as part of interviews when the funding deal at 11p was agreed just before Xmas. Current sp shows that the confidence following that achievement has ebbed away. Hopefully the current sp slide has woken a few people up to start earning their crust.

There was a strong bound off 5.5 so I think that maybe the floor for the Bid.
Pull your fecking finger out Tim, no flipping point saying 2022 will be super exciting if you just do 1 RNS/interview for a 1/4 of it eh!

This has nothing to do with the overall market. FTSE is up today actually at time of writing, and in any case the IMM's market offering is on the surface not affected by Russia or wider inflationary fears on energy and so on. There has been a Seller which has been quite active to a floor or 6p. Why they're selling now I am unsure, however they usually do in clean blocks. It could be MMs selling overhang stock into any rise. The Bid has been reduced in the back. So hopefully soon they will be done. Perhaps other news this week on other shares like SNG have scared off some PIs off Bios, who knows.
With the threshold price for the Landstead financing in the 13p to 14p range respectively, TM really needs to start moving as I would be disappointed if we only heard further after the PK Study in end of March/April.

No matter what the sp the over-riding commentary one gets here and from IR is that "we are on-track". Regardless that shorts have yet to close or IIs to add. Stop losses have come and gone, yet with a hop, and skip we are told by the same posters that we'll rebound to 40p in circa 4-weeks time, despite the MPC expecting to raise interest rates on the 17th March and that the FTSE being still at record high-levels and ready for a correction. The basis of this faith being that Results will be good, despite the market suggesting otherwise. In the interim with the most recent, again predictable, escalation in the Ukraine, it should not be expected that a quick resolution will be arrived at. Simply because a quick withdrawal would be a loss of face. Putin has also painted himself into a box by recognising the 2 separatist territories. So realistically MMs will stretch this out as much as possible by dropping the Bid, 1st thing in the mornings to trigger stop losses during this Closed Period. At some point there'll inevitably be a some sort of rebound. It will be interesting then to see how those that cheerlead others to hold on the way down saying that "we are on-track", will then champion the smaller in relation rise. The noticeable observation at time of writing is that the FTSE has now recovered its earlier losses from today and is now positive, however CPI is still down.

As suggested a few days ago, depressed sp has suggested shorts have been added to even at this low price preventing a rebound from resistance support levels. Marshall Wace LLP increased their shorts slightly from 0.80% to 0.90% (+0.10%) on the 16th Feb 2022, but others may also have below 0.5%. You'll have to see what happens tomorrow following RNS but would MMs may try to raise the sp 1st thing to suck in PIs. Other renewals with renewals with HMRC, the Standards and Testing Agency, and the Ministry of Justice were not RNSed however this was of a significant value and would have a material impact had it not happened. IIs are still standing on the sidelines.

Despite the alarmingly low sp on on LSE, the Bid and Ask are the same in the back. So it seems like either the MMs are fishing for shares, or more realistically as completely bored and fed up as shareholders here and wanting to stimulate some action. Either way 2022 is not turning out as jam action-packed as promised yet and TM needs to get going with commercialisation news in advance of P3 results.

It is the Closed period, so no news till Results. As mentioned the sp is just mirroring the indices. Dow surged today and opened higher by 400 points as Russia appears to be withdrawing some of its military, signaling that it is backing away from an immediate invasion of Ukraine. So you will see airlines go up, oil stocks slip back a bit and so on tomorrow. With every single Western Leader making a pilgrimage to Moscow this will just go back and forth for a few weeks as Putin milks this. Tomorrow war will be off, by the the weekend it may be back on and so on. Fundamentally there is no diplomatic solution to the impasse, only a temporary placation of egos. The FTSE being above 7,600+ now is back at nearly an all time-high. So with the stock heavily mirroring the indices, then your betting on whether the indices will continue to go higher to even newer all time highs. This could happen though because of the amount of QE in the last few years. Short tracker shows no change in the positions which given the ample opportunity to close them does now does suggest Results are suspected to be missed. However that does not mean that the sp will not appreciate before the Results in speculation, especially as it is at record low levels. Inevitably the slightest rise will prompt the usual individuals out saying that this share just keeps on giving, and will do so on an unparalleled run to 50p. GLA

@Melo On a technical point, I believe the original boast was to eat "it" raw. Whether cooked, or uncooked, and the merits of various serving suggestions aside you may have occasion again this week to make this challenge.

Though the FTSE had lost 2% earlier today, it should be noted that this is from a circa 7,600 all time peak. And so, there is a disconnect between the FTSE being still at record levels, and hearing that food bank claimants are also at a record high and news stories of personal cases where people have to choose whether to "eat or heat". Though some will point to the high UK unemployment figures, this for me has long become meaningless with the mass of low-wage, low security new tech economy jobs and that the unemployment figures reflect only those on Universal Credit.

It is unrealistic that tensions will not deescalate before Ukraine and Russia meet in a few days time. With crude oil getting to $95 this will put more pressure on airline stocks, who already had to terminate their flights to that region. If you look at the effect of the stock market during the 2014 Crimean War, the effects were benign as the trade between Russia and Europe is minimal except for Energy. Same effect this time, which will lead to an inflationary cycle. For CPI, which trends and amplifies the FTSE movements, one therefore has to ask what will happen to the FTSE in the next two weeks. Given the level of military build-up now in the region, one has to suspect that there will be some type of skirmish to save face. As state-owned Rosneft benefits from high oil prices, there has been some silver lining despite the MOEX Russia Index plunging over 3.6% to the 3,420 level. What this means for Russia's submission to the Eurovision song contest this year, heaven knows.

The current sp trading pattern should not be surprising, in fact the hyperbole commentary here is more so. As IR have confirmed there is no further news expected. This then means that the sp will trade in line with the indices, except for the potential of accumulation in advance of Results. Despite the potential for Results being in early March there has been little speculation in the Markets. So I genuinely doubt that any mention will be made on dividends being reinstated. Were it to be so, or even speculated to be a possibility, you would not have the FT mark CPI down as a "Sell" at 34p, and would probably have seen the Shorts close by now. In fact I suspect that the fixed sp, may suggest further shorts are being added to keep the sp down. We will have to see the broker ratings following however the key will be the debt repayment. Despite some great ramping, and now standard dodgy charting, long story short CPI followed the indices this week with good corporate earnings in the US at the beginning, and now US down with fears of inflation rate hike and US suggesting fighting is imminent in Ukraine.

Although there has been some speculation that up to £200m will be paid off the £894m outstanding debt from the disposals since August, this speculation does not recognise that some of these funds have yet to be paid and will simply not be by Results.

So the sale comprises two businesses: Capita Commercial Insurance Services and Capita Managing Agency to Marco Capital Holdings for an undisclosed sum, is subject to regulatory approval. As this has not been received then ignore it.

AMT Sybex was sold for circa £40m, however Jonas will only pay £23m on completion which was scheduled for 1 January 2022 (not confirmed if completed yet) with the potential additional consideration of up to £17m is payable to Capita over 24 months.

On 3rd January it completed the sale of its Secure Solutions and Services (SSS) business to NEC Software Solutions UK for consideration of £62m.

The sale of Trustmarque to One Equity Partners for £111m on a cash free, debt free basis, means Capita expects to receive net proceeds of c.£115m at completion. An additional c.£3m is receivable by Capita contingent on certain future events. However critically the RNS only gave a target for this sale to be completed by June 2022.

So given we have all been burned by the "yes, but no", IR communication here, where only debt reduction will be announced when funds are received, and cleared, then from the above the available funds to reduce the debt of £894m is £85m. Although even this would be amazing given they didn't contribute a single penny by the Trading Update in December. Dividend restatement though could be announced in the Summer update once the £700m disposal has been met and funds received and the rest of the Portfolio division has been sold.

TM needs to pull his finger out as this is now below the "Benchmark Price" of the Dec 2021 Sharing Agreement of 14.6667 pence. So unless they start moving on the commercialisation/partnering front and progressing provide update on P140-CIDP and BioAMB then the deal to receive 24 equal monthly settlement amounts (of £91,667) as per the Dec 2021 agreement will not materialise. The Company sp is already below the last placing price of 11p, let alone the benchmark price to get the Landstead payments agreed at 13.33p in 2019 funding arrangement. Hopefully another interview needs to be scheduled shortly and not just at the beginning of April.

The CEO bought circa £114k worth of shares on the 14th, the Chairman bought circa £25k worth of shares on the 13th.
Ideally though there should have been a resignation accompanying these purchases.
Wiping off 30% following a trading update is unfortunate. Indeed some could argue the trading update was not that bad and aside from Capital Experience showed that the transformation was underfoot. The only other negative was impairment from loss of contracts with the Cooperative Bank etc.
However to loose 30%+ TWICE in ONE year is just sloppy, and the IR here is frankly incompetent and needs to be replaced. There'll be some accumulation speculation in advance, but my god would you have to be brave to hold on the day of the Results. They had the choice to delay the update till the Christmas quiet period where most companies release bad news, or bring it forward as last year and deliver it in November. Here IR bless him thought fit to deliver a warning that the Capital Experience business was adversely vulnerable to Covid, the MORNING AFTER the Prime Minister gave a national address of the warning on Omicron being much worse than the original wave. To be blunt, it was God send to the Shorts here and they couldn't have wished for anything better. Ideally if the business was to affected by Covid, then for heaven's sake it would have been better to provide that in the August update when the Covid cases were down and we were exiting the 2nd wave, then supply it just as we were entering a 3rd wave. Hence the worry that has persisted that this comment was just positioning for Results not to be delivered.
Most holders were expecting just a recycled text of August's update. And for most part it was. The key problem was the Covid statement own-goal, utterly mis-timed, and then that net debt was still at £894m. So despite the sale of 3 further businesses since August, announce in October and November for circa £100m (assumed as only the Oct sale had £70m sales figures disclosed), the net debt had not gone down towards £800m. Here again the IR was poor as if given Stuart Morgan's email that this was only not done because monies has not been received yet , then the intention could have been given to neuter worries. The sp is now down despite the £700m disposal target being achieved 6 months earlier because of this waste of confidence. Again completely avoidable. Hence why no shorts have closed and no II's buying.
Although I don't see a complete collapse here, I'm a bit jaded to see a natural reversal back which some assume will happen just because we bounce off from some resistance line. Rather it will take some trigger that will only come in March, till then we will trend the FTSE with the risk of drifting towards territory that stop losses will be triggered as nearly happened today. As some esteemed brethren have said "you have to love this share, as it just keeps on giving".
On the macro front the major concern if you ignore the over inflated FTSE , tho

It is the regular share purchase scheme. They buy every month. Email from IR confirms they are now in Closed period. So Directors cannot do any discretionary buys till Results, probably early March. Shouldn't expect any news till Results but may see some speculation. At present resistance is still holding, which I'm some will suggest that everything is on track. Key thing will be in the results if they bring debt down through sales, or just use that for Working Capital. The Covid statement in the December trading update suggests though that targets will be missed and blamed on Omicron. So together I expect the Results will dissapoint some who expected dividends to be reinstated and Net debts to come down.

Bid/Ask gone down in the back. Could be that an order is being filled though, as would be a strange day to sell unless overhang is being cleared.

Although it will only be the PK Study available at the end of Q1, this is a significant milestone. The PK study although just a Phase I study will assess the presence of Lupuzor in the body after administration of a single dose. So basically it will tell you if you have a product. The study will be carried out in a total of up to 24 healthy male volunteers and thereafter move to P3, where realistically you will have results in 2023. That said there will be the results also expected in BioAMB in H1 2022. So yes it is not a blockbuster but the market capitalisation is £23m for a company at this stage of trials. So for PIs they will be looking at the risk/reward now and saying there is enough potential for the sp to be at least in the teens by PK Study release.

The importance of the message from Capita is that they identified that they were now in the Closed Period.

So under Article 19 (11) of the UK Market Abuse Regulation (UK MAR), the "Closed Period" is 30 calendar days before the announcement of a year-end report. So the reference might suggest Final Results being published in early March as per FY2019, and not later in March.

That said, Corporate Officers under the Model Code are prohibited for the 60 day period immediately preceding the publication of its annual financial report from dealing in shares. So not sure which reference the "Closed Period" was being made against. Either way it does mean that the CEO and Chairman have lost their opportunity to buy again to rally the share price.

BTW it is OK, not be OK with the share price. It is down whether you look at the 3-month chart, 1-month chart or the 1-week chart. Though some commentary throughout here would suggest that the share price is going in the right direction, and things have been called right. The email from IR also suggests that everything was on-track, rather than the current sp was nearly 45% down from the 55p peak you saw last Autumn. At some point the sp will reverse. Some will call it right (and tell us about that repeatedly), and some will have missed the boat to get in at the bottom or average down. The main question will be what triggers the recovery will be in the absence of news and where the daily volume is still low despite the sp being at historically bargain basement rates.

For now the main news will be the macro news, especially what will be FTSE trend given that CPI tracks this. Expecting some more bluster from Bojo to change the narrative in the Sunday Newspapers over the weekend.

The issue is not the current sp, but that CPI is down and whilst the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 is broadly flat. How the FTSE can be 7,524.39 with the inflationary fears and living crisis reported is fantastic as this is nearly at an all time-high. For those whom have not seen it the head of Marshall Wace appears on the "Decade that the Rich Won". The mazing amount of QE has resulted in an all-time high FTSE. The question for CPI holders is with the FTSE at this point and with no foreseeable news as CPI trends the FTSE, how this will play out till speculation accumulation to Results.
Loosing 30% off your market valuation is unfortunate (ask Mark Zuckerburg), but to to do it twice in 1 year is just careless. Last March there was a similar fall from circa 49p to 32p in July. Last December, CPI IR were able to top this achievement by repeating that fall in less than a week. The last time it fell to 32p in July the trigger for the reversal was the sale of Axelos and the confirmation of completion of ESS sale. The holdings RNS from RWC then confirming the selling was over. I suspect there is selling here and the FT negative article reflected this. The question is what will be the trigger for the reversal on this occasion, or do we just think there will be a correction in itself?
As Stop Losses will be triggered at this point downwards, there will be some competition with Buy Orders being triggered to catch the bottom. To be honest the sp will result from this bots back-and-forth, regardless of whatever chartists may say. The worrying thing here is that the shorts have yet to close despite ample opportunity and II holders have yet to accumulate further, despite doing so at higher levels. So the ballet is set to continue for a few weeks more I suspect.
What will be interesting to see what happens with the increasing political uncertainty with Prime Minister Johnson and a potential military skirmish with Russia. With the further accumulation of military troops in the mast 2 weeks, it seems somewhat inevitable that there will be some engagement.

...however there was some resistance at 31p and we will have to see if there is rebound from there or a change in Mace & Wallace's short positions or II's holdings. We will just have to see whether this resistance bounces it further up or whether this resistance will be tested again to see if it holds or triggers stop losses to below 30p.
The problem is having achieved the £700m target disposal and met £210m of maturities, Jon Lewis could be forgiven to understand what else to deliver given that the disposal target was set for June 2022. Nearly 6-months early and the sp down? Where achieving this target has failed to deliver the required impact is that the net debt at 31 December 2021 was still at the £894m reported at the half year. So this neuters the good news or the negative narrative often repeated that disposals are not achieving their optimum sale price, and then the proceeds being used as working capital rather than paying down the debt. That said the sale price of Trustmarque was 7x multiple of £16 million post-tax profit for 2021.
With Group revenue for the 11 months to 30 November 2021 increasing by 0.6% to £2,882m, commentators will be awaiting Results to see the impact on Capita Portfolio’s businesses where there is a potential impact warned in the December trading update from Covid lockdowns, particularly transactional businesses in certain industries such as Travel & Events and Enforcement (Agiito and Optima). And so I suspect that the revenue growth of 0.4% in the Capita Portfolio division will be diminished.
The problem is now what the expected news flow will be between now in March Results and whether they achieve the target to achieve sustainable free cash flow generation in 2022. March though should provide clarity though on the debt, revenue growth and transformation. With limited expected news flow, the sp will tend to follow the FTSE (7,464.37 today). So with a slight softening of the FTSE today, CPI trended this.
With tensions between NATO and Russia and inflation it is likely that there will be some more macro headwinds in the next few weeks and the FTSE may turn negative as still historically high, and whether the MMs take advantage here. There will be at a point some uplift in speculation towards Results. However I suspect most PIs would have to be brave to hold on at point of publication given the poor delivery and communication at past updates. The knock to the sp in December '21 only matching the damage to sp value done by the poor presentation in March '21.