Member Info for notaflipper

Acknowledgement to @sicilian_kan on the other BB: "Yet despite Lanstead funding during the last P3, the share price went from 26p on the funding announcement to 190p. Despite all the doom merchants stating that Lanstead was death spiral funding. The fact is that they were not."

Major short term news is confirmation that the volunteering screening and selection has been completed. Thereon that the Phase 2/3 clinical trial in 2022 following successful completion of the current PK study. So perhaps the premium is reflecting the strength on confidence here. A few years ago there was a great spike of interest on the Lupuzor trials which fell flat. However it would be likely this will be repeated in 2022.

What tosh reading some of these posts here by the same old rampers saying that they always make money on this share. The same ones who were telling people to buy after the 50p barrier was breached, and that their target was 60p. This week has seen the latest in a series of setbacks to shareholders here from an unqualified IR where many who had felt that the lessons would have been learnt from the disastrous presentation of the Results earlier this year by the last CFO. There are genuine concerns here now on the expected news flow till Results given the poor IR communications in the last few months and deafening silence since Monday's trading update. Further with increasing worries of potential restrictions post Xmas some temperance would be advised.

From my perspective the IR is just plain incompetent here and needs to be replaced. The news flow and shareholder communication has been non-existent for month. Then they finally release a RNS and wipe off nearly 30% of the market capitalisation, at that is before an expected post Xmas lock-down.

Hopefully this is bottoming out now, and we will then see in the coming days if the shorts have taken the opportunity to close. The main tumble came sub 41 and then again sub 39, which I was probably driven by a domino effect or margin calls and stop losses being triggered. There'll be a bounce this week but obviously tempered by macro news. Otherwise down to 34p-32p. I would agree with @Cashola that timing of RNS was crap, and intelligible why the trading update was delayed till Dec and could not come out a few weeks earlier.

Terribly day to release a trading update which did not help with the macro headlines. With an intra-day fall to c. 37p where for now there seems support, the main story here will be if the shorts close and if there is a bounce. The price was circa 35p when the Half Year results were released and climbed to 47p in short order. Prior to that the sp fell to circca 32.5p. Main difference now is Omicron and the relentless negative macro coverage. Here the trading update is broadly in line with the Half Year results, the main disappointments being the lack of reduction in net debt and the revenue shortfall in Capita Experiences division due to Covid headwinds. However this in the main reiteration resulted in an intra-day lost of circa 18% at one point. We will have to see what happens now.

Painful shake, and fell just below 40p in the back. Starting to look over done even with the macro press over the weekend, but we will see.

Aim, give it a rest. We appreciate you have a short here but some of this fear mongering is a waste of even your time.

Interestingly despite the Covid headwinds they are still expecting sustainable free cash flow in 2022. Would have hoped net debt would have moved more, but despite the Covid headwinds the recovery seems to be on track which is the main message.

Although there was some recognition that Covid had affected some businesses the overall headline is that Capita has delivered revenue growth of just under 1% in the 11 months to 30 November 2021, which I believe is the 1st in the last 6 years.
Many things were delivered as expected by the Half Year results like reduction of outstanding financial debt in H2 2021 with £210m of maturities repaid in 2021.
Some things did not progress as much as expected for example net debt3 at 31 December 2021 is expected to be broadly in line with the £894m reported at the half year, so has not moved below the £800 as had hoped.
Main negative is that Capita Experience revenue has declined by 8% to £1,083m, however off-set by Capita Public Service which has grown by 11% to £1,292m, driven in particular by Royal Navy training.
So broadly the trading update is saying that we are delivering what we had said we would in Half Year results, but there are headwinds. Whether the sp should have been higher following the Half Year results we will now see, however there is the macro background of ever alarming news coverage (though no new restrictions yet).

My understanding is that this is calculated as a % of the shares in circulation so here Marshall Wace LLP have shorted 0.79% of c. 1,684m shares in circulation. These will have to be bought once the shorts are closed. It is a pretty dark area as you only have to declare a net short position when they reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.5%. So it could be that others have shorted Capita but have not reached the 0.5% threshold, and so are not known. With respect to CPI we sometimes see an interplay between the short positions and a a change in the II holdings. So sometimes I have noticed a holdings RNS following a reduction in the shorts which could indicate some collusion to allow the shorters to close their shorts, or II to get their shares at a discount. Probably wrong but I would be surprised if we do not see a Holdings RNS following the Trading Update next week to confirm that there has been some II accumulation through this protracted stagnate period.

re evergrande that's been reported by fitch as they did not respond to their request for clarification yesterday, and have remained silent. Hong Kong 50 index is circa 0.5% down to put it in perspective.

The world has been an incredibly challenging place for the last few years. I am as queasy as the next guy, and not that impressed with the IR here tbh. As circulated by @Know0 if CPI stick to delivering what they promised back in the June updated this should be a positive update with debt below £800m, £50m of annualised cost savings achieved, revenue growth delivered in 2021 for 1st time in 6 years, circa £600m of divestments achieved and liquidity £500m after £160m private placement notes being paid back in July...

...the worry is will anyone be listening after it being so quiet here so long and how far will the momentum, if any, carry us before the fed-up PIs start cashing out.

There is usually some fishing 1st thing in the morning by the MMs. I suspect though the sp will moderately hold up for now. An alternative view to the macro gloom is that the Dow being above 35,754.75 is near all time highs so they do not seem so worried about an imminent Cold War there. Similarly the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has not imploded (yet) in the worries of Evergrande and other Chinese developers. Also within the UK the GBP vs USD has been falling indicating that the pound is falling as the expected rate increase is no longer expected imminently.

GLA

Part of Plan B released. Main point is working from home in response to an expected rise in case numbers in circa 2 weeks. time. CPI should be well versed in home-working now. Getting bit a of race to get the trading update out now, before macro news just with drown out anything released.

The market seems to be absorbing the WHO statement calmly.

Although Evergrande grabs the headlines with their huge debt debt mountain and their statement over the weekend, other developers like Kaisa suspended their shares from trading in Hong Kong as a consequence on not being able to meet $300m of debt repayment. Also on Monday, a smaller property developer Sunshine 100 China Holdings said it had defaulted on a $170m debt payment. So it is all snowballing.

That said the Hong Kong index is flat, so with the CPI Trading update expected next week at the latest then you would hope Armageddon was postponed till CPI could get the trading update out, with the associated positive results and new trading range ffs. Genuinely hope there is a rabbit in the hat as I can fully appreciate it when you hear of PIs just finding the markets to crazy at the moment to put their toes in.

It is not bad timing and IR should have known the macro environment that you will be presenting into come this time of the year. Everyone knew that this Christmas period was going to be difficult with both seasonal flu and Covid. Last year there was a lock-down post Christmas if you recall. In some ways Omicron has a positive that it provides an excuse to mandate booster shots for the entire population, something that they could not have justified with the Delta variant. It also may be positive by inoculating the population against the milder though more virulent new strain, which is less deadly than the Delta. It may have a side effect of delaying a potential interest rate rise. Looking at the BBC website though it seems like each day they try to out do themselves in how much they can scare readers, when all KPIs show that the current situation is vastly better than last year.
However back to the point being that IR would have known that the macro environment would be difficult. With the slow news flow here I do hope that the delay in timing from last year (10th Nov) is to allow them to pull a rabbit out of the hat to pay back the support from PIs and LTHs here, and to finally put us into a new trading range ffs

I think everyone is aware of the macro concerns and I hade made apologies to this. BTW there was a great report on Panorama on inflation on the BBC last night. It is just that some would have hoped that on the day that Serco posted positive results saying it expected its addressable market to grow around 2% to 3% per year over the medium-term, with their revenue growth being twice that, that there would have been some interest gathering on Capita which has yet to report. We will just have to see what happens here, and who is left listening once IR finally deigns to start talking.

Would agree that there are probably a few stale PIs frankly fed up with the IR here by now. With only 2 RNS since the Half Year results in August on the sale of speciality insurance businesses and Secure Solutions and Services, to say the news flow has been 'quiet' or 'slow' would be indeed flattering.

In many ways a lot of the headline figures have already been released in previous RNS. For example:
a) Expected revenue: year on growth expected as H1 Revenue was 13% higher so if the same run rate was achieved it would suggest revenue of £3,856.768
2) Debt consolidation: £600m+ worth of divestments already our of £700m target. So with the divestments of Insurance services etc. above since the August trading statement you would hope that net debt (IFRS 16) was reduced further from £894.4m to sub £800m.
3) Free cash flow expected in 2022. As adjusted profit before tax1 increased by £56.4m to £45.3m in August update (H1 2020: loss £11.1m), we should be expecting healthy profits.
4) Total Contract Value won for year would be circa £3bn+ in H1

So the question is why aren't the shorts closing yet and why is the market not giving any anticipated benefit. To put it in perspective the sp has been higher at points last year, with higher debt pre ESS sale and Navy Contract. So macro concerns aside, most would have expected the sp to be higher than here by this point.

It would be interesting to see whether there is a surprise, and if that is the reason why the Trading Update is a full month later than last year. Tim Weller, Chief Financial Officer, joined the CPI in May 2021 notably with no handover period from the last. I do hope so to justify LTHs and general PIs faith here as I suspect many though quiet are now stale and they'll have a mental barrier to hold past the 50p to 55p range. At some point a recovery stock needs to recover.

@Stonk the current market capitalisation of £28m is still 13x the £0.69m revenue reported in June '21. This is even if you turn a blind eye to the operating loss of £5.48m. Those that shouted the sp would go higher post 50p were not being realistic to the £5.6 million net of expenses raised from the placing of 24m shares at 25p. So holders and newbies need to look at what the remaining overhang is left, which is a bit difficult with the huge volume in the last week.
On the way up from 16p you saw it go quickly to 22p then 44p to an intra-day high of 48p. On the way down it still has yet to find its support level. We will have to see if circa 32p holds and what bounce comes from the CE-IVD. I suspect that this may fall sub-30p at some point to firstly 28p and if this does not hold then the last placing price, but we will see. There'll be another pump and dump that is for sure. However best not to plan to hold come March Half-year Report unless you are sure of commercialisation till then. CE-IVD accreditation is one thing, however as shown with the narrative of Genedrive® 96 SARS-CoV-2 Kit this may not translate automatically to sales. However this time round it is a Point of Care kit, hence the hype.
Good luck.

Shame to see even though warning given against fundamentals.
For those holding, or those looking to enter the best to look for is the technicals in the absence of any news on CE-IVD or commercialisation.
I would look at the technicals to look at where the support levels is to time your entry. The 32p is on level with the 1-week moving average. Once this breaks I suspect that the next support level will be 27p to 28p. Though there could be a bounce from here if the support holds.
Best of luck
Easy link to see however Zak Mir and Twitter will have more detailed versions https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-GDR/technicals/