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I think the post from @shaf5 illustrated that the 95% share dilution may already be priced in to the current sp, by highlighting that the 95% of 1.992bill shares = 1.89billion shares. So "with price at 12.15 market cap will be 1.12x(1.992+1.89)= 43.4million. The market cap at close yesterday was 45.8 million." So some confidence for those who are reading endless posts of a complete wipe-out.

For my sins, I am still holding. The main confusion I have relates to the recent CA purchases this month, which following the early March and early April RNS, makes no sense in retrospect. In the last month CA bought two tranches of shares (27.5m + 13m) @ circa 2.5/2,6p giving them an extra 52m shares (2% of equity). Although it reduced their average from circa 11.8p to 8.8p average, the extra outlay of £1.3M is illogical even despite their past profits and bond holdings. The BoD have played their last card, now it is all over to CA to see what their reaction is come Tuesday morning, if any. Will make my decision then.

Bond prices have been solidifying and Crystal Amber have been buying even post the last kitchen sink RNS. There'll be a shake. But ultimately both sides are now locked in and think we are now approaching the end game.
Stay strong.

Further small movement today to solidify base.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1641462277-hurricane-energy-plc-7-5-17-22

Sorry slight correction
The 8.8p is correct. However the 11.9% refers to how much of their fund is invested in HUR.
If the HUR share equity they own 14.32% as per the last Holdings RNS
Apologies for confusion caused

Monthly Net Asset value report released today.
see https://crystalamber.com/

Shows that CA own 11.9% of HUR's equity at average price of 8.8p.

Bond prices have been solidifying with small increase in last week
I suspect that with the biggish spread between Ask and Bid we should see a further increase in coming days
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1641462277-hurricane-energy-plc-7-5-17-22

Today's sp reaction suggests new money following Investor Presentation yesterday on 21st Apr 2021. Looks like this should provide a new higher floor to the sp and a (slow) rerate is on the cards.

Some solidifying of bond prices in last week
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1641462277-hurricane-energy-plc-7-5-17-22

Expect we may see some further news this week on shorts and Crystal Amber's Net Asset Value report

Hopefully sp should be released from this tight trading pattern by end of week as AGM on 11th and expecting news in the run-up.

In the real-world the company still progresses...
Minister for the Cabinet Office Acting Through Crown Commercial Service
Back Office Software
Published: Tue 20 Apr 2021
3.5 year contract, ends Dec 2024
awarded to 31 suppliers
Contract Value: £1.2B

I suspect the fairly tight (2p) trading range that we have seen for the last 3 weeks reflects that some background transfer or accumulation has been happening. Though probably not connected with the block listing of a total of 30,000,000 ordinary shares. The sp will move after to the 50s for the same rinse and repeat and so on.

Some really dodgy maths here.

Crystal Amber's 11th March 2021Monthly Net Asset Value report showed that they had 11.8% of share equity (235,040,844 shares) at an average price of 10.2p.

Last week it was confirmed that they bought a further 2.7% of share equity (50,195,163 shares) at circa 2.7p.

Difficult to see how the average has now fallen sub 5p based on those figures and share allocation.

Using the SUMPRODUCT Weighted Average figure in Excel one can hypothesis that the revised average once announced the this month's Net Asset Value report will be 8.88p. This sounds more right but happy to be corrected if there is a better Excel function.

Stay Strong!

Perhaps another question is why have they not been continuing since Friday, that is my confusion.

Thinking about it logically the reason why Crystal Amber would look to increase their holdings are:
1) Reducing their average below that level of a distressed T/O
2) Making a potential hostile TO of their own
3) Calling a EGM and voting for a change of the BoD
4) Because they do not believe the CPR, either due to relations with the current BoD or because of internal technical analysis

The timing of the additional purchase is significant as logically one would have awaited the suggested dilution as per the kitchen sink RNS. So the fact that they have purchase 52m+ shares now believes that there will be no imminent dilution.

However if you look at the potential reasons 1 to 3 above, then my confusion comes as to why the buying has not continued into early this week. The daily trading volume has been tiny and hence the still depressed SP. Although some solidifying of the bond prices has been noticed there has been no change to shorts. Again confusing you would have thought. Unless CA have just temporarily halted their share purchase scheme you would have thought given Reasons 1 to 3 above they would just continue whilst the sp is cheap to get as low as an average as possible before shorts closed or PIs became emboldened to repurchase.

The only reason I can think of for temporarily halting is that either:
1) They consider there average (probably circa 9p now) low enough
2) They have enough votes, potentially with a tie-up with someone else, to either vote for a TO or otherwise vote off the BoD

Best that I can work out. Stay strong!

Still holding as hopefully expecting further news on divestments before the AGM on the 11th May.

The problem with the bidstats contracts notices is that usually the larger contrac4 years. that Capita wins are on Framework Contracts which have an unclear award amount revenue due to the number of suppliers and the open-ended amount of work that can be won. So for example the £72M Engineering and Technical Consultancy Framework contract award that it won earlier in the month was for SCOTLAND EXCEL. However here again naysayers would say there are 33 suppliers over 4 years. To be fair having worked on these Frameworks usually there is a Main Contractor (such as Capita, Amey, AECOM) and then Specialist niche consultancies which make up the 33. Another similar example is the £88M Professional Services Framework (TPS2021) contract award by TRANSPORT FOR GREATER MANCHESTER in March, however with 44 Suppliers this time.

Long story short Company is in a better position than when the sp was at these levels last year and still winning work on top of the £2bn announced before the Final Results. Should get interesting again once we hear of the divestments.

In total CA have purchased an additional 55,178,400 since the 11th March. This should bring their average down from last month where it was 10.2p.

Only 4 reasons I can think why they would do this:
1) They want to reduce their average below that of a low-ball Take-Out ~ in which case we should expect further purchases
2) They wish to make a hostile TO bid
3) They do not believe that a massive dilution is inevitable despite the kitchen sink RNS, hence believe they should not await the inevitable 18%+ dilution
4) They do not believe the CPR technical analysis or that there is a risk of coming to end of economic life before a Forward Works Programme can be agreed with the Bond Holders

Key reaction will be whether Astaris Capital Management and Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP now reduce their shorts. As collectively they hold 2.1% of equity in shorts you may see another circa 55m shares bought quickly if they decide to close these out. Bond prices position reverted to where it was on Friday so this will also be interesting to see how this changes in the coming days.

Keep strong!

As expected Bond prices have increased marginally today 0.25 (0.5%). Will have to see if this is a blimp or continuing trend. It looked to be on the cards last week though with the High Ask.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1641462277-hurricane-energy-plc-7-5-17-22

Seems positive for coming financial year and transition over. Extract below:

- Substantial order book and good visibility over revenues for the coming year (main change in revenue is they have moved to more recurring revenue than one-time revenue which as a more solid base. approx 80% of revenue now comes from recurring revenue as opposed to 40%)
· Current contracted revenue visibility for FY21 of $6.0m, of which $5.2m is recurring
• Pipeline of c. $16m

Just had to fork out circa £150 on each of the D2 and D8 Test to Release PCR Tests. Cannot believe that just for one person it costs like £300+ for these tests. So a couple was £600+, not including the tests we had to pay for just to travel outbound. Lucky we were not a family otherwise we'd have spent as much as on these Covid tests as on the hotel. I would be interested to see if there has been any research on how much these extra costs will put-off people travelling as it is difficult to see some families, given the economic background, footing this bill.

Aside from the slightest of pauses on Friday we have seen across the BBs a wave of negative posts. Some good, some bad, some technical, and some financial and some just plain puerile. Despite the wave of concerned bystanders, industry observers, historical holders the fact still remains that there has been some one buying a large amount of shares (2%+ of equity) to balance the nerved PIs sales. We will have to see if that continues, if there is a Holdings RNS, CA's monthly portfolio valuation or reduction in short positions to learn the identity and whether there is an expected appreciation in the bond prices this week. Not withstanding production figures. However this purchase is idiosyncratic given the reported expectations of dilution and end of economic life of assets. Safe to say if there is a buyer, who is buying at this scale, then any posts on a BB will make no difference to the sp. So best enjoy your remaining Sunday. ATB.

I would agree with the maths however I suspect we may find that some major II like Crystal Amber will have increased their holdings. CA's Monthly Net Asset Value report will be published next week. [Link: https://crystalamber.com/] After reducing their stake in November they have increased it in February by 0.8%. Reduction in shorts would at least provide some reassurance to holders that the bottom has been reached, before the next kitchen sink is thrown lol

Sometimes it might be an idea to step away if you cannot handle the pressure. 2.2 was the All Time Low (ATL) so inevitably PIs will focus on that. Given that shorts have not been raised in last few days and Polygon closed their short since the early 3s I do not think we have far to go to flush out all the Sellers. I suspect there'll be a rebound next week, with another set of 1 post account holders saying they have just bought in, rather than selling out having been a quiet investor for years lol. Was a bit surprised with the spread on the bonds and I suspect we may some appreciation on that next week as well. Best to just wait till then.