Member Info for notaflipper

Seemed to getting some strength in the back. There was a bit of a jump in the Ask at circa 12:40. This seemed to be due to some higher volume Off-Book trades starting with 119,228 purchase at 12:35. So could be that this rally is not a false dawn MM play. Let us hope.
I would agree with Credit_Limit that we may see a repeat of the trend that from earlier in the year, with the heavy sell down to 34p and then rising to 50p. Only caveat to that would be whether we get further news flow before the June trading update. I am sure there will as per last time be some trading opportunities in between to make the last two weeks worthwhile whatever you did. No doubt we will be hearing of others prowess, but best of luck to all. GLA

In 2020 Final Results were on the 08th April. So I am expecting some news in the next week or so. Any expectations when, if this will take off as been stuck in hibernation at these levels for 6 months now?

You may have called it. There was a bounce off 40.199 I think.
If it does then credit is due, where credit is due. Let's hope.
GLA

That's my understanding as well.

Hat's off to @Uracca for best post of the day yesterday
"Since late Jan, shorts have reduced by 36%. And since late Jan, the oil price has gone up 17%, with a spike higher coinciding with when we last filled a tanker and handed it over to BP. On top of that, over this month, the value of Hurricane's bonds has almost doubled."

Tomorrow it is then! Stay positive.

Have to agree.

The RNS said quite clearly that it is a choice between insolvency or the Scheme. So given that the FCA says that it will not oppose the SOA then the judge tomorrow will have to rule out giving an opportunity to vote. So for me the SOA will be approved to go to vote stage tomorrow and we should hear plans thereafter on the process to restart lending.
For tomorrow not to go well the Judge would be ruling out customers and the FOS to be given the opportunity to decide for themselves whether to support the Scheme or to oppose it in favour of the alternative, an insolvency proceeding, despite FCA saying they will not object though having residual concerns. So I am expecting it to go through perhaps with some final negotiations / noise between Amigo and the FCA where they will try to enhance Amigo's Scheme of Arrangement to enhance the terms of redress more alongside FCA's compensation terms.

Fair point however think this was addressed in the Results and so we may not see the parabolic swing which took the sp from 50p+ to 34p as per the tail end of last year. This is because the ESS sale proceeds cover the 2021 and 2022 debt obligations. So there are £124m in cost savings targeted in 2021, on top of the £145m delivered in 2020. The key thing will be the announcements pre-June where you should hear more of the £700 million disposal program. They already said that they are targeting £200m from three non-core disposals that are currently under way. This was my chief reason for holding is because I expect more news on this shortly and before June. So hopefully the sp promised here is just delayed post this short term shake. Hopefully this will bottom shortly, so only (marginally) better wishes on your re-entry here for obvious reasons. GL

Some people are panicking, others trading down and encouraging others to sell so that they can get a better entry. As you have said we have seen a repeat of this in the 30s and then gone on to the 40s. Same people encouraging to sell now will be ramping then no doubt. As some others have suggested we could shortly see the bottoming process through assuming that there's not a wholesale cratering of the sp into the 30s. I doubt/hope that will happen but who knows. So just keeping cool as can be and will be adding to take advantage of the bounce to make the last 2 weeks worth the pain.

As far as the business is concerned there's been no change since when the sp was at 47p. In fact today they won another contract for £540K to the Manchester City Council [Link: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W13/747765777]
GLA

I think it is an April Fools day joke tbh. That said usually the AGM is in Apr, with the Final Results end of March. You would have to think they would want to stagger the newsfeed though and issue the CPR before the Results so that the Forward Looking statement can be put in context and concentrated upon. SP seems to be holding despite getting the report at the very last opportunity. Bond yields unchanged which is a sign of confidence. GLA

@Cashola sorry for stepping in. Below is the extract from FY below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Disposal of Education Software Solutions (ESS)
The disposal of the ESS business to Tiger UK Bidco Limited, a newly formed company established by funds advised by Montagu Private Equity (Montagu), completed on 1 February 2021.
Cash proceeds of £298.5m were received, with net assets disposed of £51.8m, and estimated disposal costs of £28.9m (of which £20.6m were recognised at 31 December 2020). Consequently, we expect to record a total gain on disposal of approximately £217.8m.

Montagu has also agreed to invest in ParentPay (Holdings) Limited (ParentPay), a provider of education technology. Following successful completion of both investments, ESS will become part of ParentPay Group. An additional sum of £45m will subsequently be payable to Capita once Montagu’s agreed investment in ParentPay has achieved regulatory approval.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Of the £298.5m there was £50.1m was payable to the Capita defined benefit pension scheme I believe.

When looking at the balance sheet it is a bit of complicated because you need be aware that this Balance Sheet was as at 31 Dec (unless stated whereby post balance sheet events) of ESS sale were adjusted and where the presentation made clear. So for example the adjusted profit before tax in 2020 for ESS of £51.3m was adjusted as per the breakdown given to you before. Some post-period events like revenue from Royal Navy training contract have not been included as they were post-period events. Further to the but the sale of ESS of £299m they have already mentioned another £200m to come thereafter.

Sandbar Asset Management LLP raised their short from 0.42% reduced on the 17 Mar 2021 to 0.50% on the 25 Mar 2021. Still below the 0.61% that they held on the 26 Feb 2021, when the sp was 46.5p.

Ah carp you see that's my feck up. I have to hold myself up to that. Writing down error and not checking when quickly typing on the move. So reverse please order of figures.

This compares with FY2019 figures of
(a) Profit before tax (FY19) INCLUDING ESS = £249.1m
Less
(b) ESS profit before tax = £51.4M
Result =
(c) Profit before EXCLUDING ESS = £197.7m

Thanks for checking @Laurenti as school-boy error on my part. Will stick my head in a bath of cold beer now after this week. GLA

** Apologies and acknowledgements given to Know0

For me it suggests that the trading range is 14.30 to 16.75p. If the bottom of that range is broken than the sp can fall down to 12.75p. Above that range it is either in breakout territory or over-bought. However I am not a chartist and my reading is probably all wrong.
That all said with a make or break session on Tuesday, I would suggest that charts are secondary. If anything I have been surprised how low the volume has been today. Some were expecting more of a sp appreciation in advance of hearing. One more day to go. Let's see.

No worries @Cashola
If anyone does have L2 access there were a few interesting "Off-Book" trades today further those mentioned earlier.
14:36:48: 164,388 shares @ GBX43.577 for Value £71,635 [Off-Book]
11:52:52: 109,453 shares @ GBX43.967 for Value £48,123 [Off-Book]
12:47:32: 100,000 shares @ GBX 43.55 for Value £43,550 [Off-Book]

These were in addition to the ones discussed with @NoFear. Hopefully they know something more than Numis Securities who had a near term broker target of 80p. Tin hat has seen better days since that statement. Liver too. Have a good weekend ALL holders!

@Cashola
(a) Profit before tax (FY20) INCLUDING ESS = £116.5m
Less
(b) ESS profit before tax = £51.3M
Result =
(c) Profit before EXCLUDING ESS = £65.2m

This compares with FY2019 figures of
(a) Profit before tax (FY19) INCLUDING ESS = £197.7m
Less
(b) ESS profit before tax = £51.4M
Result =
(c) Profit before EXCLUDING ESS = £249.1m

Thereafter as mentioned there were one-off restructuring costs which brought the headline/loss before tax to £49.4m (2019: £62.6m loss). @Laurenti is right though the figure was what it was. What was hoped, is that as per AIG, the market would look to the future positives. As before not a great last week and the tin hat has taken a battering, but hopefully will come to an end soon.

As before apologies for any errors in my understanding of the FY results
** Acknowledgements given to Know0

@Laurenti I think the problem with the Results was due to the restructuring it was difficult to compare like-for-like.

So if you looked at the Profit before tax including the ESS business that included £116.6m. However with the ESS element stripped out (£51.3M) it left Profit (Earnings) before tax of 65.2M for 2020. This compares to £197m in 2019 when compared on a like-for-like basis. The problem though was that once one-off restructuring costs which and accounting adjustments, this then reported a loss before tax of £49.4m (2019: £62.6m loss).

Apologies for any errors in my understanding of the FY results
** Acknowledgements given to Know0

Cheers for the heads-up @NoFear.
Usually when I see these "Off-Book" trades they have usually been at the mid-price so as not to affect the sp. Usually so to accumulate a position quietly. My only hypothesis here is potentially Sandbar closing their remaining Short sub 0.5%, or otherwise some MM transfers. Who knows tbh. With an outright collapse in the sp looking less unlikely, hopefully all will be revealed soon. Good luck again.
P.S. I had to google what FOMO stood for. Sad I know :-)

Cheers @NoFear. Hope you and the others are well.
I noticed these trades as well from the link below (I do not have your trading platform).
I was not sure if there was some significance that they are "Off-Book"?
However they were all done within 30mins of each other and the next highest value trade below these was £42,033. So someone is confidence
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/CPI/capita-plc/trade-recap

Cheers for the heads up again. Best of luck in your investments and only the marginal best of luck in your re-entry price, if at all :-)

@ Laurenti Thank you for your thoughts. It does seem the right progress is being made albeit less quickly than we would have hoped. Hopefully as the dust settles following the Finals we should hear more news which should provide some new base for the sp. I suspect this will follow the same pattern as per the move from the 30s to the 40s.

As I am sure you will miss them please note a NEW CONTRACT WIN:
Buyer: Education Management System Support and Maintenance Provision by HULL CITY COUNCIL
Published: 26 Mar 2021
Value: £327K
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W12/747569252

Small I know but posted more in memorandum, as I know you enjoyed them and their accompanying "Opinion" lol I lay myself prostate to your wit in response, but please let us not start the whole thing off again, it is just not worth it. Most posters, chartists and their respective disposals/ acquisitions/helpful advice can scarcely hope to change the sp of a Company of market capitalisation as Capita. Let us just agree that both camps have their agendas. Wishing you the best of luck to your investment choices and hopefully they are aligned to mine.

My understanding is that there is 475m in issue, of which JP Morgan hold 6.922742% as Ordinary Shares which have voting rights. Most Companies issue Warrants, Options and so on. If all these were to be exercised then they would own a further 0.134246%.

The 6.922742% equates to 32,883,024 shares which seems like a fairly confident holding just before a Court Case which could stop Amigo 2.0. So for me I think they are fairly confident on the SOA. I suspect the Holdings RNS ups and downs are more of a reflection that a vote at an EGM will be likely at some point.

Please correct me if any of the above is wrong as I am thinking to add to my stake here at this late stage so would be happy not to have Buyer's remorse.

You are right Cashola. My understanding was that the reported loss before tax was £49.4m still better than the £62.6m loss in 2019. The £32m figure quoted in the article is related to the Operating Profit/Loss not the (Loss)/profit before tax in the FY.
GLA to ALL holders.