Member Info for notaflipper

Confirmed that the strategy is to dispose this business in its entirety to reduce headline net debt to EBITDA to within our target range of 1x to 2x (pre-IFRS 16). Planned a bond issue to extend our debt maturities. We were, however, unable to do either of these in 2020.

They anticipate proceeds to come through in the second half of the year. Further non-core disposals are expected to realise around £200m, including from more off-the-shelf software assets as well as Specialist Service businesses that will be sold once recovery from the Covid crisis is well established.

Headline figures for Specialist Services:
Order book (£m): £234.2
Adjusted revenue1 (£m): 196.5
Adjusted operating (loss)/profit1 (£m): (4.4)

IAG posted a £7bn loss and spiked. CAPITA's 2020 long-term growth rate is 1.6% (2019: 1.6%).
REMEMBER that Royal Navy which represents a £0.9 billion addition to the order book which is not included in the results as revenue only expected to be recognised upon satisfaction of certain performance criteria. Sp AGAIN underlying performance is better than results.

Exactly. Underlying figures more profitable. ESS adjusted revenue and adjusted profit before tax in 2020 were £90.6m and £51.3m respectively.

Targeting their first year of organic revenue growth for six years with disposal proceeds of £700m, with £500m in 2021.

Revenue Growth: Total contract value (TCV) won in the year was £3.1bn, £233m more than in 2019, which included framework and transactional wins. 90% Contract renewal rate. The outlook for 2021 is promising, with a strong unweighted pipeline of £9.7bn (2019: £8.0bn), out of a total unweighted pipeline of £18.2bn (2019: £16.9bn)

Thanks for this @NoFear...I am getting very close to being inspired now to remove my Limit Orders.

I hope it was noticed that Fera which is ear-marked for the disposal in the report also comes from the "Specialist Services" division which I mentioned yesterday may further be sold down to pay the debt down. This was the division that Axelos was in.

I mentioned this because this has 16 stand-alone businesses which created £745m revenue with £141.7m profit in 2019. So I suspect that more disposals will be announced in the coming weeks will come from this division as it also fits in the strategy with sale of Irish Life & Pensions Services, where Capita is looking to withdraw from IT-dependent life insurance legacy contracts, where there is a structural decline, to improve cashflow.

Todays Holding RNS shows that the slight trade down by Schroders from 15.198% to 15.146% last week has now been reversed and they have added back to their holdings again, over and above original level, to 15.201%.
I believed it was @eats who suggested that the reason for the small dip last week was for Shorts to close early on this week. If so we should see in the next few days when Shorttracker has been updated whether it was co-ordinated between the two, and so why we have seen a more muted than expected sp build-up this week.
Stay positive all. GLA

FWIW I see more disposals in the "Specialist Services" division this year to pay the debt down. Whether announced on Wednesday who knows. However this was the division that Axelos was in. It has 16 stand-alone businesses which created £745m revenue with £141.7m profit in 2019. It also fits in the strategy with sale of Irish Life & Pensions Services, where Capita is looking to withdraw from IT-dependent life insurance legacy contracts, where there is a structural decline, to improve cashflow.
cash flow

The Court hearing has already been announced it will be online, so that will make it easier for creditors and customers to attend.

No changes to court schedule. The Court convening hearing for the Scheme is listed for 30 March 2021:

30 March – First Court Hearing: Main purpose of this hearing is to convene the creditors’ meeting. If the Hearing gives the go-ahead for the creditors’ meeting, Amigo will publish more details about the Scheme and how customers can vote on it.

Late April – creditors’ meeting: A formal creditors’ meeting will be held online where customers and FOS can vote on whether the Scheme should go ahead.

10 May – Second Court Hearing: The second court hearing will consider whether the Scheme should go ahead and whether it is fair to customers. If the Scheme is approved at this hearing, the Scheme is expected to start in mid-May.

Today's widening of scope is just to consider all aspects of potential complaint to have this once and finally dealt with. So gives greater certainty if anything.

a) The 2,209 of the outstanding complaints which had yet to receive a final response by 30 October 2020. This was a specific group of complaints where significant guarantor payments on a loan have been a feature. Key thing is that the methodology for calculating redress for this specific subset was being discussed with the FCA.

b) Whether Amigo was able to issue the final responses to customers on 2,517 of those complaints included within the VReq as of 30 October 2020 but had not received a final conclusion by date of the announcement on 3 November 2020.

Looks like an opportunity to me to get back in, or lower average. GLA

This is the key statement for me "we have already secured contracts to deliver $6 million of revenue for 2021 within the first quarter of the year".

From the Half Year results we already know that 2020 has a pipeline of $8m, of which of which $4m is from existing customers. Also highlighted was that Pelatros' order book is weighted to "significant weighting of revenue towards our second half."

This should mean that the $6m revenue should increase if following the same fashion.

SP was being held back because of underlying operating loss in H1 2020 was $0.43m (H1 2019: $0.20m profit). However this update should point that operating profit will be positive within H1 results.

Market capitalisation is looking on the low-side now vs order book.

Forward looking earnings are a bit over my head but it is interesting when you read the latest annual reports filed for Axelos to see their revenues, operating profit, cash position and dividends paid -> https://tinyurl.com/ypyxw39r

Would be surprised if not updated with ER on Wednesday. GLA

Thanks @Urrace. Usually the bond prices are a leading indicator for an increase in the sp.
If you look at the sp chart vs the bond chart you will see a correlation between the collapse in the sp with the Sep CPR and the collapse in the bond prices. The last time the bond prices were this high, the sp was closer to 6p. So as before , the bond prices are a leading indicator and it is great find.

@Johnoxxx
Theoretically yes.
Problem is that public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.5%. So because the short position has fallen below 0.5% only a private share notification needs to be made to the FCA, when the net short position in shares reaches 0.1% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.1%.

Realistically with Polygon Global Partners LLP reducing their short from their peak of 1.09% from 27 Jan 2021, the direction of travel of their shorts is clear and so it is fair to take confidence from this change in shorts.

I would expect the morning of the 17th to be quiet on the BB as Capita's reports are pretty lengthy. So it will take some time to read, but some KPIs to look out for:

o Net debt: (£1,096.6m) in FY2020 vs (£1,215.1m) in FY2019. Key point here will be how the disposals is expected to contribute to this. Whether disposals can yet be posted, because cash received in the case of Education Software Solutions ('ESS'), I suspect market will forgive as long as progress being seen (e.g. sale of Axelos) and revenue lost being replaced

o Revenue recovery: H1 revenue decreased by 9% to £1,652.2m (H1 2019 £1,815.5m), mainly due to 2019 contract losses and COVID-19 impact. The order book at 30 June was £2,523m, a decrease of £238m since 31 December 2019. This should be a safe target with circa £2bn contract wins since H1 and also some of the decrease in order book shifting right.

o Adjusted profit before tax1 of £30.1m (H1 2019 £117.8m); decline resulting from change in profit mix from prior year revenue losses and net impact of COVID-19.In H1 results there was £42.6m non-cash charge for holiday pay accrual which is as a result of high levels of untaken holiday for 60,000 staff which contributed to lower Operating Profit.

o Debt repayment: Capita repaid £163m in June and another £56m in September 2020. Scheduled debt repayments of around £500m between 1 July 2020 should be covered by sale of ESS. Need to see how 31 December 2022 will be met with either further non-core disposals or pushing out of maturities out by raising new debt.

Key point for many will be the forward looking statements on how growth will be achieved. At 30 June 2020, the total unweighted pipeline was £2,480m an increase of £1,100m since February, with £242m of TCV won in H1. The order book at 30 June was £456m, a decrease of £41m since 31 December 2019.

Apologies for error. Brutal paper loss last two days and got distracted. Should hopefully still come good. Apologies again. Cheers.

Thanks for the correction and apologies for school boy error. Knew I was putting my head in noose. I blame the Malbec as after hours. GLA and apologies again.

Capital consists of 1,671,273,523 ordinary shares of 2 1/15p each, as at 28 February 2021. So I just did 0.052% x total shares in circulation. Apologies if I've done a school boy error en route. Still long here, and no swing trading ulterior motives. Main point was that Schroders holdings are still ahead, from beginning of year. GLA.

My understanding, apologies if I am wrong, is that Schroders have basically sold off 0.052% ( 86,906,223 shares). The majority of these shares were purchased earlier in the year and confirmed in the 12th Feb RNS where their holdings were confirmed to have increased from 15.076% to 15.198%. Now it has fallen to 15.146% - so still higher than at beginning of the year. Looks like some profit taking in last few days pre-results, however overall negligible to overall holdings and their sentiment.

A good comparative illustration of this tete-a-tete is IAG or BARC. Some added at the bottom (sub-100p) and whatever the noise from day traders, derampers just ignored it for 1 year. Others monitored the BBs, studied the swings for profiteering on the upswing. Although I appreciate that there are still some LTHs around that purchased between the ranges of 25p-35p, I do think that the next month will exceed all our expectations here. So no Limit Orders set at 60p for me I am afraid as think we will see mid-60s minimum. May not be the best swing trader here, but still expecting to make a decent return here soon. Keeping calm and keeping buying. GLA