Member Info for notaflipper

Shorttracker hasn't showed any changes to short positions. Last updated on Wednesday.
There's obviously a lot of worried holders and new accounts on the BB.
What has been noticeable to me has been the stability of the bond yields and the CA share price. The latter has actually grown since the 04th March RNS. So you would have expected that the CA sp would take a hit given their c. 12% exposure here. I suspect that when the valuation statement is released in the next week we should see that CA has taken a further stake in HUR.

For me basically the asset base, development options are being put into a very stark and negative light to force current shareholders hands. Basically forcing a sale on the cheap, or warning that there will have to be some dilution to develop assets and pay back bond holders. Cheap T/O seems likely scenario, with CA having to take a hit. We will soon find out if they have been buying to reduce their average, or shorts have been closing. But seems the only plausible story to fit the BoD behaviour and language.

Still holding and awaiting CA's response and Production figures. CA's sp has remained basically flat since the technical update and so has bond yields which again is surprising. We should hear from CA in next few days their valuation. I note that in February, prior to their Half Year Results assessment on the 04th March, they had added 0.6% of HUR's equity into their Holdings. Current holdings are 11.8% share equity at 10.2p. Best of luck all.

Today is a big disappointment for those that had gambled that even a modest uplift in the CPR was possible, and that this would have far greater gains than the downside risk. Ultimately today's RNS just reaffirmed the past CPR and the challenges of to additional development activity at Lancaster and the risk of debt restructuring. Inevitably the boards are awash with new posters looking to short, as well some holders going to pieces. We will have to see in the coming days the Production figures, Financial Results, changes to the bond yields/short positions and CA response. On the latter points it was surprising that despite the free fall in the sp that the bond yields and CA sp did not change at all. I suspect that the 3 late reported trades of 649,978 (@2.70), 13,500,000 (@ 2.69889) and 874,419 (@2.70) though recorded as Sells may have actually been Buys. This is simply because it is difficult to imagine that the sp would not have fallen further than the 2.70 close as the market could not absorb this. We will find out in the coming days, though it is clear there was some background buying. If CA is buying in the background to reduce their average this could suggest there may be further developments, or residual value here. Best of luck in the coming days.

Waiting to see what will happen in next few days. Following the Sep RNS the sp fell from 6p+ to circa 2.5p and then recovered above 3p within 2 weeks time. We will have to see if there will be a similar dead cat bounce or further news from the BoD will continue the trend. Immediate news to be expected will be Final Results and then potentially CA's response. As some have observed there was some buying which provided some support to the sp which was intelligible given the disappointment. Another weird thing was that we didn't see much change in CA's sp today nor any change in the bond yields which was a positive. I have to admit that I was expecting more with the recovery of the bond prices, the closing of Polygon Global Partners short and the rise in Crystal Amber's sp since their Half Year Results on the 04th March. Main risk to holders in the risk that of dilution on the one hand, and then if not doing this then proceeding to sweat a single asset till it is uneconomical.

We'll have to see whether Astaris and Kate Lake are closing their shorts in next few days, as little downside left, and that is the reason for the sp holding up.

An theories wh the bond prices has not changed today?
Still holding

Happy Easter NoFear. Best of fortune to you and the Dis*ord members in your investments. Hopefully no one had bought into the Delieroo IPO. Only been in CPI since November, and although banked profits along the way, it is a bit of a dragon to ride. GLA

I suspect with the new Financial Year we should see more volume on Tuesday and another Blue day. Hopefully this will continue into next week. As mentioned I do hope for further Holdings RNS and debt reduction updates before June.

There have been some contract wins published today which may, or not, be of interest to PIs here. As I appreciate that some posters here have greatly enjoyed these when these have been posted before, and with the "Strong Buy" Opinion, I also add these for their enjoyment.

1) Children's Information Management Software System
Contract Award Notice by COVENTRY CITY COUNCIL
Duration: 5 year
Value: £955K

2) Engineering and Technical Consultancy
Contract Award Notice by SCOTLAND EXCEL
Duration: 4 year (est.)
Value: £725K-£22M

The key leak happened on the 09th March. I think this was in response to the Crystal Amber Half Yearly report on the 04th March. You saw Polygon close their short then and then a big spike on the Bond yields. Shorts and bond yields have not changed since then. Today's change in sp is just PIs speculating.

What I take confidence from is that the last time the bond prices were at this level the sp was above 6p. Only concern is that Astaris Capital Management and Kite Lake Capital Management have not reduced their short like Polygon.

@Fidelio: There is a lot of unhelpful noise on this BB today.

The volume today at time of writing is 11,145k. To put it in perspective yesterday the volume was tiny 643k. Most days it fluctuates between 8M to 12M. So we are within the normal range. When the 2nd March RNS dropped you saw 65M, which is surprising to think that the sp has kept above 3p, so little to go downwards (hopefully) for the Longs.

What is more interesting if you use the link below is the some of the high value Off-Book trades. So for example there was 540,310 shares bought (?) at 12:04 at 3.3p for 17.8k. Also 450k shares bought (?) at 3.385p at 10:23 for £15,232.

So volume is within range but made up of some more higher value trades is my summary.
Link: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HUR/hurricane-energy-plc/trade-recap

Is the reason why they do not want to post the CPR is because then it would create alternative offers from other companies and that they just want to keep things quiet till a deal is done? Does that mean that we will find out other updates at the same time as CPR, probably on 09/04.

Bit above my head, and also not in my background, but I understand that tomorrow the OGA publish the latest production data which will cover the data for Lancaster Well 6 for January. The 14th January RNS stated 12,100 bopd with 25% water cut. Others on the BB have since suggested that this may slip to 11,500s. However we will know tomorrow even if not updated directly and this will give a indication as to the longevity of Well 6.

Cheers @bucklefern for that correction. Yes I should have looked at the latest Jan RNS Technical update, rather than the Sep RNS. Apologies.
Before anyone asks, no last week I was not the pilot on the Evergreen.

Commiserations for your weight issue aside I do think that the last of the potential kitchen sinks were thrown on the 2nd March RNS. Conveniently that was a few days after my entry but lol.

The value and volume of today's share trades is tiny [Link: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HUR/hurricane-energy-plc/trade-recap] and sp has dropped more due to low volume. Bond prices unchanged. So market is taking the delay in its stride.

Disappointments over the BoD aside, I have to ask myself as a holder what the risks of the downside is here that is not known, given the potential increase from even a slightly revised CPR.

Major concern is sweating assets from one well for the next year with net debt of $123.8 million at 30 June 2020 (31 December 2019: $96.4 million. However with the recovery of bond prices the concerns over debt seem to have eased. Concerns that developing reserves (e.g., like side-track at Lancaster fields) would lead to dilution were dissipated in the 2 March 2021 which it confirmed it will not drill well during the 2021 summer weather window and this drilling the side-track will now happen in 2022. Other major concern is that the Lancaster Oil Water Contact where the water cut has increased steadily, with water cuts most recently varying between 55-65%.

I am sure I have thrown down the gauntlet to others more pessimistic and technically minded. The 11 September 2020 RNS downgraded Company's unaudited estimate of 2C contingent resources in the Lancaster field to 58 MMbbls remaining from 486 MMbbls in the 2017 CPR. Also the Company's unaudited estimate of 2C contingent resources for the basement alone in the Lincoln field was reduced to 45 MMbbls gross, compared to 565 MMbbls gross in the 2017 WoS CPR. So given the massive write-down in assets in the Sep CPR, I have to think that the rising POO should mean a better CPR and better revenue rate?

Doubled up. Rinse and repeat. At this rate looks like 45p+ weekend close can happen tomorrow. Surprising but not entirely unexpected. The games that are played lol.
@TTNY2013 this will just be like IPF.

Disappointed but have to admit those more pessimistic were right. I have to think though that given the last CPR, which devalued the assets substantially, this CPR could not be any worse and so all of the negativity is already priced in to the sp at this level. Will hold as still expecting this to drop shortly. However I do now also expect some reaction from CA which should be interesting.

I haven't seen a change on Shorttracker yet, or the FCA excel spreadsheet. Others have observed a joined up two-pronged game plan between Schroders and Sandbar. So Schroders sold before the Results so that Sandbar reduced its short. Hypothetically speaking if Sandbar are reducing their short again, you may see a TR-1 Holdings RNS from Schroders. Would make sense given their last purchase was at 46/47p. We'll just have to wait and see, but would fit the same pattern we saw earlier in the year.

I appreciate the poor perceptions of the BoD however the October RNS Operational Update is quite clear "More definitive estimates of the range of reserves and resources will be made available in an updated CPR in Q1 2021." So we should hear something this week otherwise one would expect a further acrimonious statement from Crystal Amber. Given the movement in the bond yields and shorts, I suspect the details have already been shared with the stakeholders and further options discussed?

4 KEY POINTS FOR ME (Obvious thanks to stellar work ISA of which the below is cut-and-paste from)
1) Grant Thornton have been appointed as the skilled person to review the SOA and the 1st stage review is largely completely, some things are ongoing but, at this time, they are 'happy with it' (paraphrasing). 2nd stage findings have not yet been discussed with the FCA.
2) Customers claim will give rise to a right to a pro-rata distribution from the scheme fund. The fund has various elements. A contribution and cooperation agreement has been entered into where ALL will pay £15M to a trust account as an initial contribution. 2nd there is a further potential contribution up to £20M as a balance adjustment contribution. AMGO has calculated £85M of redress claims may be deducted. If claims are not as large as AMGO assumes, it will provide this further sum. AMGO will contribute 38.85p for every £1 up to a max of £20M.
3) PWC say £312-325M is a reasonable estimate of total asset recovery. PWC conclusion is that AMGO would have a shortfall to bond holders in the event of an insolvency.
4) Although not completely happy with the methodology. However, FCA recognises that these concerns need to be balanced against what might happen if the scheme does not go ahead i.e. AMGO go bust and people won't be paid out [to paraphrase]. FCA does not consider this assessment should prevent company seeking a vote for the SOA and for the court assessment.

Lots of details in ISA's stellar work so please add any key points missed.
Given the above it is difficult to see how the vote will not go ahead. BTW MMs seem to be waltzing the sp to the breaks of the court. Expecting a decision before 16:30 today which could be interesting.