Member Info for notaflipper

Small contract of Capita One Education Software and Accompanying Services
Published: Tue 30 Nov 2021
Sunderland City Council has purchased a range of products from the Capita One Education suite and accompanying support services.
Duration: 5.5 year contract, ends Mar 2027

Placing in September of 24m shares raised £6.0 million for the Company (approximately £5.6 million net of expenses) at an issue price of 25 pence per share. You will start to see these being sold as essentially doubled their money in 2 months, no point holding further. PIs ramping to £1-£2 need to understand that this 24m over hang to work through, hence the price barrier which is compounded by the weak EPS fundamentals.

Best thing is have a look at the Company's own presentation in Nov '21 on the failure to commercialise GENEDRIVE® 96 SARS COV-2 KIT
http://www.genedriveplc.com/company-reports/Finalresultspresentation30June2021.pdf

There you had the CE-IVD early in the year in May '20. Big hype, lot of rampers as per now. PIs got spiked and then the sales were poor. Reason as per presentation being "EUA approval submitted summer 2020 but missed initial “burst” of
approvals and effectively sat in abeyance" and "many labs established testing processes and difficult to convert to
Genedrive® test"

Getting CE-IVD accreditation is one thing, selling is another, and the route to commercialisation is not cheap

Yes that was the point in the 'CityAM' which suggested that if what is being represented by the Chief Scientist in South Africa is right.."that the new strain is more milder than the Delta variant, and has been more reported in those under 40, whom haven't been vaccinated" [in paraphase] then the new strain could help to create ant-bodies to Covid by exposing people to a less deadly strain via Omicron.
In London there's no noticeable change on the streets, no less people going about and same amount of mask wearing (or not wearing), no mandatory NHS app check-in.
The 24 news channels however will inevitably sensationalise every single new Covid case in the UK and every single new travel restriction.

Looks like it will go over 45 in the ask.
All major indices up except for Hong Kong 50 which was predictable because of flight ban.
GLA, the trading update could not come soon enough for me.

The Weekend FTSE Futures Index can help to provide some understanding of what will happen tomorrow. It was overtly negative for most of this weekend (down over 2%), however since this morning news papers it has recovered quickly. That said there still could be MM fun and games

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices/markets-indices/weekend-uk-100

Sunday news papers are coming in now. Interesting write up on Sajid Javid 's comments. Question will be whether MMs still try to take it down to sweat wet hands or whether there will simply be market relief euphoria.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-omicron-variant-live-masks-vaccine-latest-b1965456.html
Plan normal Christmas despite Omicron

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-omicron-variant-live-masks-vaccine-latest-b1965456.html#post-524025
England ‘nowhere near’ introducing tougher Covid restrictions, Sajid Javid says
England is “nowhere near” introducing tougher Covid restrictions, Sajid Javid says, despite the return of mask-wearing and PCR tests for travellers.

The health secretary rejected stricter curbs – such as social distancing, or a working from home rule – arguing they “carry a very heavy price” and are not necessary now, despite the arrival of the Omicron variant.

It will be interesting to see what the Sunday Papers will make of the Prime Minister presentation and what they tend to focus and discount. So for example will they focus on PM BJ's comment that "This Christmas will be better than last". This bears in mind the personal criticism that he received by Labour for not locking down early enough on the 2nd wave in September last year.

Otherwise they could focus on that there will be "vaccine release", the spike mutation, inevitable sensational announcements of new UK cases.

The thing which struck me was that they seemed to be going light..no mandatory use of NHS Check-In app, no immediate restriction on number of people meeting indoors, no mandatory instruction to businesses to work from home, no flight cancellations aside to African countries (e.g. Netherlands is not in ban).

Chief Scientific adviser to the Government Sir Patrick Vallance holds £600,000 worth of shares for vaccine maker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and he seemed to be focusing on that there is a wider artillery that can be used and that a new vaccine could be ready in less than 100 days.

Thing we saw a domino effect with stop losses being triggered across the market. In CPI's case when Covid 1st broke in March 2020 you saw the sp collapse from 125p+ to 25Pp+ in the space of a week. To put into perspective the sp is back where it was at the time of Patrick Butcher (last CFO's resignation), pre-£600m+ confirmed divestments (through sale of ESS, Axelos etc.) and additions to order book of £2bn+ (through a multitude of contracts including Army Recruitment Contract Extension).

I am sure that we will still have to hear from posters here how they saw the collapse coming and timed their entry perfectly. Though tedious as this is, and will be, the consensus of broker targets suggests that post trading update we should be much higher than here. For those that had jumped back in after getting past the 50p mental barrier this has been a disaster, but we move on. We should here more news over the weekend on how long the time frame to tweak the vaccines will be and the containment measures till then. Hopefully that will allow for a bounce next week but there may be more bottom-feeding fishing opportunities. It will be interesting to see what the 2m late reported trades were and whether any shorts will have been reported closed following.

Yes bit of a hissy fit again.
Tin hat time but think once the shake is over should recover again quickly

Will be interesting to see here and elsewhere what happens to the shorts. Today's drop is a welcome opportunity for some to close their shorts. So we could see a bounce later today. GLA

I take solace from the fact that the whole FTSE is down more due to fears of the fresh COVID-19 variant that appears much more vaccine resistant. This seems to have spooked markets on fears it could yet derail the global economy's efforts to return to pre-pandemic levels of activity. Eventually these fears will be calmed in some way. I think yesterday would have signalled a new floor so not holding much hope for those who are awaiting entry points at much lower levels.

Will be interesting to see if Barclays, Numis or Shore Capital follow suite and revise or reiterate their targets following. RBC was more on the negative side of the broker forecasts. And so, there seems to be consensus forming that the target is well north of here. However CPI has a habit of wrong-footing us consistently.

I think in July 2017 it got to 690p+
Pre-Covid in 2019 the apex was 180p+
The entry we could have had yesterday is now gone. Will be interesting to see if there's now a sustained rise indicating a leak. Shorttracker will be updated by tomorrow I suspect

Roll on the trading update. Looks like RBC got a leak

There were some LTHs who played the swings, whom I suspect have been caught out. And so after selling post 47p they bought in post 51p feeling that a new floor had been established. To be fair for a few weeks it looked like it had and the next target was onto 60p as the sp went above 55p at one point. However with the protracted wait to the trading update, M&C increasing their shorts and the bleak news at the macro level on inflation and so on, the sp has slipped back and caught many out. It will be interesting to see what they and any newbies do at the high 40s. The last trading update (pre-Half Year results) was poorly communicated by the last CFO and so we saw a slip back. Here the market knows the debt amount cleared and the revenue figures. So far, for some reason it has not given CPI the benefit of the doubt. However you can look at Serco to see the potential sp performance. There seems to be strong support circa 44p level so any dips below bring it back up. With a potential trading update still some time away hopefully this holds.

The thread of this post is misleading...It has not been a slow news month, it has been a slow news quarter. Aside from 2 RNS dated on the 1st Oct and 2nd Nov on the sale of Secure Solutions and sale of Speciality Insurances, there has been no RNS to note since the Half Year results in August. Despite that the company is still getting awarded contracts -> https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=capita&scope=supplier

Each morning there seems to be a fishing expedition to trigger Stops, however it returns to 44.3 in the Bid by 9am, however it is noticeable that the swing downwards is becoming more bolder each time. I am reassured that Schroders bought 2.3% of the (so 33,685,470 of 1,684,273,523 total number of voting shares) in August @ circa 47p and so now hold 309,357,054. So they must see a significant upside from that point. That said for the normal PIs the drip feed slide is eating into potential profits and creating margin calls for some. It would be galling then to not have any further news till approaching the Christmas quiet period, especially when the expectations are that the update will be positive.

My understanding is that it will be either next week or week after. Still time for MMs to play games, however I am expecting a positive up-turn following issuance. So as long as current holders should see the rough patch through and keep a cool head and not materialise any losses.

bit of a bounce after the bid dipped below 44p. Let's hope the MM's fishing trip is over.

Well that was an uncomfortable morning session. Hopefully others were able to take advantage and top up.
It will be interesting to see in the next few days if the shorts have decreased again as I have a suspicion more will be closing.
Cannot see how the trading update, whenever it comes, will be anything but positive and finally be able to articulate and convince the market on the work that has been done on the debt reduction, as well as confirm revenue expectations.