Member Info for notaflipper

There was some background movements in the Bid and Ask earlier today, subsided a bit since then. So despite the static sp there has been some movement in the back. Suspect there has been some movement in the position among the MMs. We will have to see whether any news is released in the next few weeks.

Omicron may well be "one" of the milestones to the path to Covid being endemic to our society, just like the common cold. However despite our own price targets and investment timelines, we need to be realistic about some of the timings here. With Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents health trusts in England, saying it takes 2 weeks for any new measures to take effect he is reflecting the initial incubation period for Covid. So with the UK daily Covid cases reaching another record high of 189,213 on Thursday, it will be another two weeks before you see the impact on hospitalisations and three weeks before the impact on any death metrics. There'll be some who argue that the case numbers can be decoupled from hospitalisations and deaths as Omicron is more milder. I suspect whatever our own views, this will only be settled next week. However if US and EU numbers are rising exponentially and we are mindful of the 2-week to 3-week lag, then we should only be expecting things to be getting better from Feb onwards as any new restriction post New Year would take a minimum to mid Jan to filter through in the figures.

To be fair the FTSE100 is at pre-pandemic levels and is where it was in Feb '20, so near an all time high. Fair point to argue with inflationary and Omicron fears that so far have been discounted by the market. We'll have to see what happens in the New Year with case numbers.
News re Cathay Pacific today suspending flights to Hong Kong was inevitable. BA have already done so last month. It seems having "released" Covid to the world, the Chinese are going down the route of Zero Covid with shocking scenes of residents held behind barbed wires.

It is difficult to read too much into today's continued slide with the weak trading volumes during this quiet period. It seems however that the seller which was offloading in 100k and 50k lots, used the Landstead Holdings RNS to offload their last before also goig on holiday, hopefully permanently. Having fallen to 5p on fears of being wiped out in a placing, one would hope we are near or at the bottom. One would have hoped post the Holdings RNS, this would have increased towards the placing price of 11p.
My only hope is that the placing and Holdings RNS indicate imminent commercialisation news in the New Year prior to the Lupuzor PK study delivery in Q1 2022.

I think the significance of the Nightingale hospitals surge hubs is that they are expecting case numbers to increase, and that this may lead to an effect on normal NHS operations. Anecdotally you will hear on the news that hospitalisations have increased, and that the NHS is on a "war-footing". I don't think the fear-mongering coverage by the news channels and some scientists who seem to be enjoying their time in the limelight is that helpful. However I think most would agree that case numbers will probably increase into the New Year, and that it will probably take another week of data to see if we can decouple case numbers from hospitalisations and deaths. If at the end of next week you see a rise this would stem from infections from the beginning of December. So then if there is a trend the numbers will only get worse, before they get better. However as SA as shown, it will will get bad quickly, and get better quickly. Any trend noticeable next week can then without the help of rampers, derampers alike, be extrapolated to the current case numbers to suggest if there will be a 3rd peak at the beginning of February for a recovery thereafter. However back to the numbers game which was the point of the original post, if you have 200k+ cases, which seems arguably likely, then even with Omicron being 70% less more deadly this will have substantial human cost.

Agreed at present we do not know what the death rate is, however the various studies have suggested that the new strain is 50%-70% lower. I think there perhaps maybe some misunderstanding of the point made. However my point was to suggest that with Omicron first being detected on the 27th October, it would be only next week and the week after that the impact of Omicron will show up on the death and hospitalisation figures. For now the deaths and hospitalisations are reporting on the Delta strain, whereas Case numbers are reflecting the Omicron variant. It is the uncertainty of this lag which is causing different responses from different Parliaments. I do not think FM Sturgeon suggesting that the measures in Scotland would be in place till the 17th Jan was a co-incidence. The reason for this date is the hospitalisation and death rate will be then known as Omicron figures would have worked through the system. Assuming that this is 35 days. However this could be potentially longer or not at all.

This is a data rich environment with different conflicting data to support differing views. For example some could have cited data from SA is very encouraging with a rapid decrease in cases.
My post was just to illustrate that we should see case numbers increase post New Year's. Even regardless of whether the infections lead to hospitalisations there will be some political damage to BoJo for allowing unrestricted New Year's celebrations.
There is roughly 35 days between deaths from Covid and infection. So with the first detection of Omicron only being detected on the 27th November, you can see that it will be end of January before you see the impact of the 185k infections reported yesterday. The impact of the higher case numbers post New Year would have to be worked through in February. The main problem is even in the best case scenario that the cases result in no rise in hospitalisations or deaths, the amount of disruption to the economy and the strain on the NHS will mean that there will be grim headlines for the next few weeks.

Before the conspiracy theorists work themselves into a frenzy, I think there is some basic arithmetic credibility to the concerns being raised which the market for now is overlooking.
The highest daily reported deaths were much higher in January with 1,820 deaths being suffered on 19th Jan with roughly 60k cases and 39k hospitalisation cases.
The situation today is much different with lower cases of hospitalisations. Some would argue flat, others would argue there is a lag between case numbers rising and hospitalisations and tragically death. So for now there were 57 people reported to have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test on Wednesday and 516 deaths over the last week - 34.1% lower than the previous seven days. Tragic for those families concerned, but low historically speaking.
However the clinicians are basically saying that if there was a circa 2-3% death rate (1820/60,000) in January, and if we would agree that Omicron is 70% more milder, then you are still looking at potentially 1,500+ deaths just simply because the cases are more higher now. The real question is whether the expected lag in hospitalisations and unfortunately deaths do materialise in the next week. So far not, and to some it is as if the world is getting into a fit on how many have symptoms akin to the common cold. Clearly however the case numbers in England will rise, and potentially double in the next 2 weeks following New Year's where we will be hosting our own super spreader celebrations for Wales and Scottish revellers.

In the UK, British Airways has 42 cancellations on Monday, according to FlightAware. London's Heathrow airport has 47 scrapped flights.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59798682

Looks like the seller used today's news to offload their remaining shares. Will have to see.
With reorganisation complete, the successful placing and holdings RNS it would hoped that commercialisation news cannot be far off, I would have hoped.

Massive increase is noticeable. From 5.71% to 12.49%

Cheers for the clarification. Just saw the 500k...Pretty impressive that they were able to get the order done on the mid @7p. Perhaps that suggests that there is an overhang being worked through?
It is a sizeable buy, you expecting any significant news flow or sp movement before end Q1 2022?
Good luck.

Suspect that there is a background transfer of shares going on, with all the neat buys and sales. We will have to see whether there is a holding RNS afterwards. After the RNS on Monday the large spread between the Bid and Ask suggested that the MMs want to keep hold of it for a while. Not sure what is to be expected afterwards. The reversing trade of 250k could indicate some spread bets being taken. Once again in advance of what anticipated news flow, who knows.

Could be wrong but seems like their is a background buyer who is propping up the price somewhat. Quite a bit of volume one way otherwise

This is certainly going the wrong way and not as expected.
Large sells in 100k and 50k chunks. When would have expected sp appreciation to the placing price. The weak volume and expected news flow is a concern

https://news.sky.com/story/ryanair-counts-cost-of-omicron-driven-sudden-downturn-in-bookings-12502304

Wrong BB, I know but looks like flight capacity is being cut. Similar on West End shows which are deciding to delay shows till Feb, so suggests businesses are expecting disruption to get worse not better despite some reports that hospitalisations have plateaued.

Marshall Wace have increased their shorts marginally yesterday by 0.01% to stand at 0.8%. This is still a low figure comparatively speaking to other companies but could suggest that today's rise was not driven by them closing their shorts despite the sp collapse.
FWIW I'm out for now and will only be going long again from mid Jan onwards. Best of luck however in your respective investments till then.

Cheers Claudstream7 for the clarification.

I bought in on the back of the funding RNS and still trying to work out the expected news flow and product pipeline. So with Lupuzor PK study on track to deliver results in Q1 2022 and moving into Phase 3 thereafter alongside P140-CIDP clinical trials, the main news to be expected here in Q1 2022 is commercial partnerships in P140-CIDP and BioAMB? I had expected that the sp to be walked up to the placing price, however the lack of volume here and holding RNS suggests that the market is awaiting for something more.

Cheers for the clarification. I had missed that clarification in the video on the PK Study. My hope for an RNS was as per mu understanding of the November Update was that hopefully we would get confirmation in December that recruitment of participants in the PK study was completed, with dosing commencing in January.

From the Nov Corporate Update it stated that the Lupus P3 is to be completed at the end of Q1 2022, whereas the P140-CIDP (Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy) was only to be expected to commence this Phase 2/3 clinical trial in 2022, on successful completion of the current PK study.

However the video suggested that P140-CIDP could be fast-tracked and could run at the same time as the Lupus P3, so Q1 2022.

Cheers for the find....

Others can skip through some of the beginning. It appears that the deal was only really worked through last week at a face-to-face meeting with Avion/Alora, with the request for investment being initiated by them. I had hoped that we would receive confirmation that the PK Study was concluded and so Phase 3 trials could start by Xmas, hence the funding agreement. With the low volume and the large spread in the morning following yesterday's action it would be a shame if we had to await till the end of the Phase 3 trials for the real fun and games to start here. A few years ago during P3 trials there was a lot of excitement here, however appreciate with some people getting burnt there's some caution among LTHs to some great expected news flow here.