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no worries and explains the confused sp on opening. Not too worried as believe commercialisation news is imminent.

Sorry guys...looking at the TR1 it quotes 10,909,091 Ordinary Shares. Is this TR1 just the Placing Shares being settled then and not a further subscription? All same sentiments otherwise.

The main thing is that it points to confidence to Lupuzor study and potential imminent commercialisation.

The current market capitalisation is £21m. However should the Phase 3 trials succeed then ImmuPharma will receive milestone payments of up to $70 million with a $5 million milestone payment will be paid on regulatory approval of Lupuzor in lupus. So both Landstead and Avion seem confident about progress here this time round.

In December Alora Pharmaceuticals LLC, the parent company of Avion Pharmaceuticals LLC subscribed to 10,909,091 new Ordinary Shares at 11p. Today they have added a further 10,914,923 at sub 8p, whilst the MMs sweated weak PIs after the placing.

Art Deas, CEO of Alora and Avion, commented at the time of the placing in December:
"We met with ImmuPharma's new management team very recently and were presented with the corporate re-positioning story, since the new Board was established in August. Our previous decision to support the Lupus study and our current decision to invest directly in ImmuPharma, is based on our view that its portfolio has a number of value rich assets which we believe have significant commercial potential. Our commitment to further develop Lupuzor™ remains our key focus. We are however, also very excited about the potential of the other programs in ImmuPharma's portfolio."

My money is on some further news on commercialisation of other products shortly. We may see Alora/Avion add further sub-11p as we know that they are a buyer up to that level.

Pull back I suspect was day traders taking their money off the table for the weekend.
That said, both BritishBulls, SwingTradeBot as well as the twitterverse seem positive <https://twitter.com/confluencetradr/status/1479490408099074050/photo/1>

These types of views changes quickly. Main thing will be to see whether the strengthening of the sp base is in advance of commercialisation news in BioAMD or BioCin. If so, then it should be expected that the Benchmark prices for the Landstead Sharing Arrangements should be achieved.

Most broker targets pre-Dec trading update were double the current sp, and many still are to be fair. What has changed is that most were expecting the trading update to be broadly a repeat of the Half Year results, saying that everything was on track. However the trading update, coming the morning after Boris' Sunday night YouTube video was mis-timed, especially as it raised worries about Covid it had previously not mentioned in the Half-Year results by stating that Capita Portfolio’s businesses had been severely affected by the Covid lockdowns, particularly in Travel & Events and Enforcement industries. Same update a month earlier or later, would have had a more benign effect. Shorters here then identified concerns on the revenue attrition in their Experience division, to repeat concerns that they are loosing future revenue by selling assets at less than best price. Others saw these new concerns being raised as positioning to give wriggle room as targets aimed for the Results may now be missed. We will have to see what happens come Results.
It would be great if there was a RNS next week to say that the delta £60m of disposals had been delivered. However the FT article suggests a hiatus in news for now. Even with a news hiatus the sp could recover to the 40s as confidence returns. Similarly it could trend with the FTSE which may increase further with Omicron fears receding. I personally cannot understand how the FTSE is nearly at near all-time highs tbh but that is quantitive easing for you.

FWIW I think the isolation period will have to come down to 5 days for practical reasons. As an Employer we have to follow the rules or phase HSE prosecution, even though we may have different personal perspectives. And a relaxation on this front will inevitably help. Mass lateral flow testing will also be made a private sector burden in the endemic phase. So although realistic proposals, with 24 NHS trusts declaring critical incidents, the army being called in on Friday, the Welsh and Scottish FMs publicly criticising Bojo...it was the wrong time. And so, immediately backtracked.

Often these BB's are echo chambers to reinforce personal positions. Here most seem to be basing their investment theory on the latest newspaper headlines. Some caution here has been advised as there is a 2-week incubation period to appear on hospitalisations figures and 2-week lag to appear on deaths. So even if you believe case numbers will still continue to fall next week, the grim statics need to be worked through hence everyone saying next 2-3 weeks will be tough. However if you are basing your investment theory on newspaper headlines, it might be an idea to appreciate that IAG is a global company and look at the deteriorating situation stateside and in mainland Europe.

So politics aside the key thing here will be the short positions in the next week, and whether investors focus on the medium or short term outlook. The problem for many businesses is that the damage is done. In IAGs case key consideration will be whether losses will exceed £3bn and whether passenger capacity was 60% of 2019 capacity in Q4. I suspect not hence the Shorts not closing. However that doesn't mean there's not an opportunity to pump the share price for short term gain, at the expense of the gullible. Although passenger capacity for 2021 will be closer to 30% than 37% for the whole of 2021, the £10.6bn liquidity reported in the Q3 Results should avoid a Rights Issue again. However with cash operating costs of £260m a week you can imagine how damaging the 'stealth lockdown ' has been and we could see IAG tap the UKEF £1bn credit facility at some point as the Bookings mentioned this week were probably for future holidays.

Fine, have it your way...it is a 'leak' - not fake news- which has already been distanced by the Minister who said it saying as soon as challenged that he doesn't recognise it. Either way it looks dead.

Everyone will have their own view what should happen. However you'll see more 'leaks' as the Government tries to work out the exit strategy.

Then the crisis commentary will move onto the environment, and we can all start again

The Sunday Times article is already being denied by Zahawi on Sky News;

'This is absolutely not where we are at': Zahawi denies free lateral flow tests will end
The education secretary has emphatically denied the government is planning to stop making lateral flow tests freely available.

Asked about a report in The Sunday Times this morning, he said he was "slightly puzzled" by it and didn't "recognise it at all".

"This is absolutely not where we are at," he told Trevor Phillips.

He pointed out that 425 million lateral flow tests are being delivered in January alone, confirming they will "continue to be available for free".

Zahawi says we should listen to scientists on whether isolation period should be cut
Earlier, we reported comments from the education secretary in The Sunday Times that cutting the self-isolation period from seven days to five would be "helpful".

Questioned about this on Sky's Trevor Phillips on Sunday programme, Nadhim Zahawi said we would have to be "careful" about making this move.

"What you don't want is to create a negative outcome by higher levels of infection," he said.

However, he said it would "help mitigate some of the pressures on schools" if the evidence is there that it is safe.

Mr Zahawi added he would want to listen to the scientists on the matter and keep it "under review".

BASICALLY iT IS FAKE NEWS. It is a way for the Gov to float an idea out there and see what people think. At present England is the outlier to many in the developed world, bar Sweden, in its response to Omicron. That doesn't make it wrong and the gamble could pay off, but you'll have what happens once school starts. For many this will be the 1st week back to work. So to suggest peak is over is frankly nonsense.

At present the Government is under pressure to deliver an exit strategy. The Times article allows one version to be floated without any political commitment.

You do have to question when the country is the first European country to have suffered over 150k deaths how sensitive these comments are. Especially when combined with comments to the same scientists that suggest that this virus should be regarded as endemic, whilst arguing it was pandemic just 3 weeks ago.
Ultimately all these points in support or against the current sp are meaningless. The market doesn't care about the daily headlines, case numbers, a GP crying, deaths or hospitalisations. It simply doesn't care. It cares about fuel inflation, load factors, landing costs and wage inflation. For AIG it reached 125p and the Shorts added believing the Results will be poor. So you invest either because you believe this wrong, or because you believe there is short term opportunity from the gullible PIs.

Minus the testosterone commentary the main point I can see is that they do not expect any further newsflow further to the announcements made on the £640m disposal program before Results. Points raised on the low strike price of the disposals have been raised on this BB before by holders and fair. Key consideration would be then for holders is whether CPI will meet the expectations made for the Results, or whether this will be missed. So far the sp has recovered slightly as it trends heavily to the FTSE and this has recovered to a near all time high with the relaxation of Omicron fears. However on the flip side there's always a risk that the FTSE may retrace against macro risks, and CPI will follow/exacerbate the trend with no expected news flow of its own.

With the Final Results a month away, Holders may want to look at what happened after the issuance of the Q3 Results where the sp collapsed from 180. In the Q3 Results they expected passenger capacity plans for quarter 4 are for around 60 per cent of 2019 capacity, up from circa 40% in Q3. This would have resulted in an operating loss of £3bn before exceptional losses. So I suspect that the Shorts believe that as the 60% capacity could not have been reached due to Omicron that the loss for 2021 will be greater. That said who knows. I suspect many (like the Welsh FM) have been surprised by the rapid change in tone in the national commentary from the 20th Dec and the determination not to introduce any restrictions by the English Parliament.

No, the FCA daily short positions is updated daily as long as there's a position that needs to be declared. To be fair this is a pretty dark area with swaps and shorts being taken or changed below the declarable threshold.
Although much has been written about Sandbar reducing their Shorts from 0.62% taken in 30th Dec to 0.59% on 4th January, the MAIN and ONLY question for me is why haven't others. Even Kintbury only reduced their short from 0.72% on 13th December to 0.68% on 22nd December.
So you saw some uplift this week with Shorts closing and travel restrictions. My question is if all is over in the next 3 weeks, why haven't more been closed as they would still be in profit now!?
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/ES0177542018/

Often these BBs act as a echo chamber to reinforce one's perspective, if you're Long you will gravitate and endorse Long positions.
A neutral reading could be that this week we saw a positive alignment of a relaxation of travel restrictions in the UK, with natural optimism for the New Year with some reduction in the Covid case numbers.
The Shorts could have argued that the travel restrictions lifting was in some ways a backhand compliment as they made no sense anymore as Omicron is rampant throughout the world. So we will start seeing some distressing overseas news. The travel companies have helped things along with timed PR saying there's a surge of bookings and interest to drive "actual" bookings.
Despite the natural optimism there are macro headwinds like inflation, fears of escalation with Russia and so on which have hampered FTSE gains.
If you are Long, you'll naturally be of the view that Bojo's gamble that hospitalisations will not breach the 3k threshold. Shorts will point that with schools restarting next week the hiatus in case numbers increasing this week will be suspended and you'll see more alarming headlines, at least for the next 2 weeks.
So headwinds in the short term, with a chance to ride them out or retrace slightly. Main question then must be why haven't more shorts been closed, specifically those added in December, and whether new ones will be added later next week at a higher level.

You just need to look at the 5-year chart to see how crazy the sp can get the last time the Phase 3 trials were on in 2018. Been a crazy ride for the LTHs here, hence why some scepticism I suspect.

The sp is still well below the subscription price and below the intra-day high of 8.5p once the placing news was released.

I believe the Lanstead stake in ImmuPharma is now 12.5% from 5.7%, so £8.3m.

Although the placing price of 11p is foremost in PI's minds we must remember that the Landstead Sharing Agreement which is to come into effect in March needs the sp to be on average over the 24 months of the Sharing Agreement at or above the Benchmark Price of 14.6667 pence per share for the Company to receive at least, or more than, the gross Subscription of £2.2 million.

Similarly, if you look at the Benchmark price from the Sharing Agreement of the 30th March that required a benchmark share price of 13.3333 pencto receive 24 equal monthly settlement amounts (of £54,166).

So for the CEO, he needs to get going as to inflate the sp in order to get the pledged funding.

With the Seller gone, at present it seems just to be PIs speculation on sp increasing to the placing price. However I hope next week onwards we get signals on further commercialisation.

Think the original post has been validated today with the news that the Army has been called in to plug gaps in NHS staffing levels. As mentioned though there will be competing events and statistics on a contrarian perspective; e.g. case numbers falling below 200k for a 2nd day yesterday when post New Years mist would have suspected this would be higher leading to further restrictions. For now travel stocks are riding on a high sentiment with easing of restrictions. In IAG's case British Airways have been capitalising on this with their Sale and £300 additional discount offer.
The original remark was to alert that because of the 2-week incubation period it is inevitable that news will get harsher in the next 2 weeks as we understand what the medical fall-out is to be from the peak. At present England, travel stocks are trying to ride it out. Given how the historically high the FTSE is in bald denial of headwinds (e.g., inflation), I suspect we will see some profit taking and the FTSE falling to 7100 but still continuing its upward trend if the riding out theory is to be proving right.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-leap-in-interest-for-holidays-as-covid-testing-restrictions-are-relaxed-12510310

On a balancing note you are starting to see the metrics increase following the 2-week incubation period. So expect grim macro headlines for next 2 weeks despite what Ministers say.

Ah apologies,
The dangers of doing these things on the fly on the commute before having finished the cup of coffee.

Yes...
284,984,933 x 0.0772 = 22,000,837
250,221,297 x 0.0888 = 22,219,651

Looks like Luca may have offloaded circa 218,814 in the spike after the placing announcement, if that.

Although the TR1 looks like a disposal with the resulting situation being 7.72% from the previous position of 8.88%, the number of shares held by Luca has actually gone up from 250,221,297 to 284,984,933. So my understanding is that their holdings have gone up, but post the placing the number of shares in issue have gone up, hence the reduced percentage.

https://news.sky.com/story/travel-stocks-help-ftse-rally-on-first-day-of-new-year-trading-12508787