Member Info for notaflipper

220,000 trade...someone is eager. Surprised order wasn't done in smaller chunks. Let's see what happens.
On the aside it would be great to get some updated broker ratings and estimates here in the next few months here as news confirmation of progress comes in. GLA

..let's see

Good news on achieving the £700m target. We will have to see whether the City finally changes the press on Capita, and shorts finally start reducing and IIs start loading up to results if these have been now de-risked by today's announcement. Some will observe £111m on a cash free, debt free basis for a business with net reported revenue of £122m and £16m profit before tax for the asset for the year to 31 December 2020. Gross assets were £240m at 30 June 2021. Some other sales have failed to inspire the markets, e.g. price reaction post sell AMT Sybex.

This was a bit of a condescending piece of drivel in response that I had to read, which did little to respond to the legitimate challenge raised. Cheers for the pat on the head but I kind of figured this was not Bitcoin you twat.

Nope I would not agree with that, and still feel an update should be forthcoming. LTHs have had to put it mildly a torrid few years, and 2021 was by all accounts a write-off year as the Company re-organised itself and cut down their product portfolio. Indeed there was a revised timeline issued for the Lupuzor issued in February. So although the November RNS did explain in detail the timeline for the Lupuzor PK study delivering in Q1 2022 and moving into Phase 3 thereafter, some given the narrative would have expected the business to provide reassurance to the market between November and March that everything was on track. Although I am sure that the scientists would just love to shut themselves in a lab and get on with it, but the CEO should know that the reason for the current sp so close to P3 trials is due to past narrative here and why he is now expected to provide better reassurance to the markets.

But as I say although the November RNS did cover the timescales of Lupuzor PK study and Phase 3 trials, the subscription for 11M shares by Alora Pharmaceuticals LLC, the parent company of Avion Pharmaceuticals LLC at the premium price of 11p, was explained to be the depth of the product portfolio aside from Lupuzor where commercialisation opportunities should be updated to the market after a year of consolidation. So although it is appreciated that the BioAMB clinical studies are ongoing in H1 2022, shareholders could be be forgiven for an update to commercial partnering discussions with the two potential commercial partners given the Boards stated commitment "to enter into collaborative commercial partnerships, as early as possible, with each product in the portfolio". This is not pleading, more an expectation that this should be forthcoming to explain to the market the premium price paid in the placing.

It really depends if there is any news from the company, otherwise the sp will trend the FTSE. Most are aware of the macro headwinds. To be fair for all the talk of bear territory, few appreciate that the FTSE is still at historically high levels. In the last 5 years, only the period this January has the FTSE ever been higher. So tbh the FTSE can fall further to the 7000 level (from current 7327 level) and still be on its upward trajectory. Well that is quantitative easing. Whether CPI will follow or exacerbate this trend will be interesting to see.

The FT article was principally ignored by the market. However LTHs will remember that there has sometimes been an interplay between negative press articles, changes in the position of the shorts and II holdings. Together creating a scenario whereby shorts are able to close at a decent rate and IIs have been able to get a bargain. The confusing thing here is the nominal sells by Schroders, and the unchanged short positions of Marshall Wace. So it has yet to be seen whether Schroders are are just sending warning signals of their impatience of the transformation to prompt further progress, or whether MMs will take advantage of the probable news hull to shake this a bit further.

Anyone who says that a CFO leaving is an opportunity to buy the dips really has to have their head examined. It really is a question now of how bad it will get now, and if and how much it can bounce back. For Michael Corcoran he walked away from his Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) obviously of 4,750,000 shares. So he obviously thinks that meeting those conditions were never going to happen. Best is to check out those terms would be the best advice.

Really hope the VINSON List holders above got out well before the last few months. Was quite a list when it circulated before.

holding up well compared to a red market today. seems safe in sight of macro headwinds. Come'on Tim release some 'Red Meat' on commercialisation now that financing and reorganisation is done with.

The FTSE is down 1% following selling in US markets, and fears of gas prices given pressures Russia and Nato. Inevitable now given the military build-up there will be some type of skirmish similar to Crimean annexation in 2014. So the market is expecting gas prices and inflation to increase. Capita usually amplifies movements of the FTSE, especially downwards. Long story short the trading update was poor and raised questions of confidence in results with inflationary fears and Covid. So till there is more news you will a trending of the FTSE. This share keeps on giving.

Schroders have sold 0.36635% of their shares. They had increased from circa 16% to 18.3%+ in August. Now basically back down to 18% flat. So I think that is circa 6,170,336 shares. Not significant, but not of great shout of confidence if they have bought for 46p+ in Aug '21. If anything the script should be that Marshall & Wace should be reducing their shorts but these still hold at circa 0.8% from 21st Dec. And holders like Schroders should be adding at these bargain basement levels...I mean doesn't everybody make money on this share? Is the RNS much news, no it is a slight reduction and transitional, main thing will be what happens to the sp in the absence of any meaningful news flow and low volume. Stuart M's response posted kindly on this BB by others, gives lie to the poor IR performance and blames it on PIs who cannot read what the Company is trying to day. Fact is that the IR here has been consistently poor, and the Trading Update here last December was mis-timed and raised fears of impact of Covid impairment, hitherto not mentioned in the Half Year report. So there is now some worry whether this was positioning as Results will be missed.
Apologies for any accuracies in the above as posting on the train.

Think the FTSE will be down today following heavy selling in the US session and also poor Retail figures of -0.9% vs expectations of a 3.4% gain. Expectations of further rate rise on 3rd Feb now post receding of Omicron . Added to that fears over Ukraine and domestic political uncertainty. Will have to be seen whether CPI follows the wider trend in the absence of news. GLA

Up 10% down 6%, agree best to go by the bid price I think as sp indicator

The spread is nearly 20%. I suspect this is and some of the recent drops is to generate interest in advance of news. I had hoped TM would have release something by now as the Proactive Investors interview had suggested a further interview had already been scheduled in the New Year. The interest thing here is that on specific days there seems to be some high volume trades suggesting a background transfer of shares. In the absence of news looks like the MMs are keeping the sp along the 200 DMA. Come'on IMM give us some 'Red Meat'

Looks like some realism has come by way of brokerage targets and route cancellations.

Not all bad as Citadel Advisors LLC, Citadel Advisors Europe Limited and Pictet Asset Management S.A. have reduced their shorts. Not massively has to be said but by 0.05% each so that the total is now below the 4% threshold at 3.94%. Key things will be if they further reduce, or add again but at a higher level.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/ES0177542018/

Kintbury Capital LLP has reduced there shorts yesterday 10th Jan 2022 from 0.68% to 0.59% (-0.09%)
Kintbury is one of the 2 Hedge Funds that have been reducing, other being Sandbar Asset Management LLP.
So Kintbury went up in Dec to 0.72% in 13 Dec 2021. So been slipping since then.
Will have to see what happens to other shorts later this week.

Key point made in today's articles was that airline passengers for 2021 will be below that of 2020. So for IAG which was hoping for 37% of 2019 passenger numbers in 2021 overall (and 65%+ in Q4) this target is likely to be missed. That said, the sp may however go higher with FTSE as Omicron fears recede. We will have to see what happens though in the US which has yet to have its peak to see how the markets get spooked, or not.

An isolation period of 10 days was observed in the 1st 2 waves. Then in response to Omicron and the pressures on key services the isolation period was cut to 7 days to allow extra capacity. Bit of an argy bargy now on when the 7 days start getting recorded against the US, and the pressure to get the isolation period down to 5 days. I am sure all Employers would be pleased as this cuts down the Statutory Sick Period that we have to give to those that cannot work remotely. My only observation is that why the hell of a fuss now. Similarly why co-op extra bed capacity from the Private Sector if the peak is over. I am sure the Welsh and Scottish FM would be more willing to agree to 5-day period if the idea was part of the Steady-State strategy come March, not immediately after they have just reduced to 7-days. So they too must be scratching their head and asking why now if we are on the down-trend in case numbers? For me these measures are not a sign of strength, but worry, however the key will be shorts this week not what is discussed on this BB.

Heathrow announced at 600k flight cancellations in December alone, due to the impact of testing as it has called on the Government to lift all testing for the vaccinated.
In all these things, people will read it how they want. Longs will say end of testing is nigh, whereas Shorts will say the damage has already been done and Q4 results will be poor. Shorts have not closed any further since 4th Jan according to Shorttracker, but this week will be key to see which direction it goes.

What seems not to be appreciated is that the whole drive to reduce the isolation period down to 5 days, is that it seems to be prompted by the worry that things will get worse and so the extra capacity is needed. I mean if this was all to be over by the 27th January as some commentators suggest, you would hardly see so much noise about this. In any event key thing will be to see Welsh and Scottish FM's reactions to this.

Backroom transfer of shares happening imo. Think we'll get another Holdings RNS in next week or so.