Member Info for notaflipper

With the Bank of England lifting rates by 0.25% today, and Fed looking to increase by 0.5%, there was always going to a pullback. In March, UK retail sales by 1.4% as higher prices started to bite. And UK economic growth slowed to just 0.1% in February, down from 0.8% in January.

We will have to see whether it slips back into next week. It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday as Putin is likely to use Russia's 'Victory Day' on May 9 to reveal plans for the future of his struggling Ukraine war. So there may be a "wobble".

He bought 250,000 last year in Aug '21 @ 8.26p

After losing most of its gains in the late morning, FTSE is again bouncing back. So could see a strong afternoon finish here if the Dow/Nasdaq recovers some of its losses from last week.

Problem with this RNS was that the original RNS did not specify the sale price and just said that it was an "undisclosed sum". That said still good news as this should mean that CPI will be cringing down net debt before the trading update in Summer.

The UK market is called to open up around 50 points today after some buying momentum emerged into the US markets yesterday evening. And so, CPI will follow the momentum regardless. So expecting another 5% rise today, let's hope.

Though the wait has been frustrating expecting to see Final Results this week as last year they were issued on the 29th April.

Though the numbers will be pedestrian given where IMM is in terms of commercialisation the key will be the overview on the pipeline and the progression to Phase III trials. I suspect given the lack of any interviews since the PK Study we may finally hear of any feedback from the FDA on the PK study results, and an update on commercialisation on others in the IMM portfolio.

Each of the last 2 RNS has been accompanied by an interview with Proactive Investors, with reference in the last interview to another one shortly after the positive results of the PK Study. It would seem strange for there to be not an interview this time round, given that this is a significant milestone and with few things to cheer in the last year. Hence why hoping for news. I cannot understand how they had hoped the Benchmark price would be achieved in the interim to P3 news, without further announcements on the commercialisation front.

The Autumn trading update suggested that the CIDP programme could complete a year before Lupus:

"This CIDP programme is also expected to be designated as an orphan drug indication, which has many advantages in terms of its regulatory pathway to market and subsequent market exclusivity. In addition, this programme has much shorter clinical timelines than our Lupus programme, meaning that this clinical trial could complete ahead of our Lupuzor™ Phase 3 trial and potentially reach registration and commercialisation up to a year earlier than the Lupus indication."

For me, I appreciate the P3 trials have still to go, however the key thing is the bottomed out sp which is just a few pence above the all-time low. Key short-term drivers would be the P140-CIDP moving into a Phase 2/3 adaptive registration clinical trial in 2022 with anticipated 'orphan drug' designation and Commercial partnering being announced.

Having said that the CIDP programme was in active discussions with two potential commercial partners from pharmaceutical companies who specialise in the Neuropathy area for a few months now, I do hope news is soon and that this achieves the Benchmark Price shortly.

Late big buy @7.40 of 281,264 shares, saw the Bid jump slightly @ CoP. Trade worth £20.81k which wasn't spread out for some reason as sp was lower this last week
SP is still very low tbh and not materially different post Dec RNS, and one on PK Study, which has de-risked this. Given that TM has not done a recent interview hopefully another RNS is due in next week.

@Toomuchsunshine I appreciate that management elsewhere have been complicit in designing inflated placing prices to outwit PIs for their own benefit.

Here however we have also the Landstead sharing agreement which provides a further funding of more or less than £2.2 million, providing 24 equal monthly settlement amounts (of £91,667). So if the sp achieves the Benchmark Price of 14.6667 pence per share over a 20 day period prior to the monthly settlement date, the Company will receive that month's settlement. If the sp is lower or higher than the 14.6667 pence per share, the Company will receive more or less on a pro rata basis.

First to say Tim M. is pretty laid back (polite term) to pumping the sp to achieve the Benchmark Price, and also that the sp regularly failed to achieve the last Benchmark Price of 13.3333 pence in the March 2020 Sharing Agreement which was for 24 equal monthly settlement amounts (of £54,166).

That apology said, it would also be against the Company's interest to as well as conspire to inflate the placing price to then set the Benchmark Price above this at 14.6667 pence per share. When the 13.3333 pence Benchmark Price was set in the March 2020 Sharing Agreement the sp was higher @ circa 9p average. In December the sp was floating around 5p as the worry was that the placing price would be lower and essentially wipe out PIs.

Finally added to that is the Director purchases in August 2021 @ 8.2p+, does suggest more internal confidence that the sp is too low, than a deliberate attempt to outwit PIs.

As some others have alluded to, there is little chance that IMM will not be taken out before the P3 results are published. The PK study, and placing in December, are helping to recover the management's reputation here. What is needed now to set off the fireworks is more news on commercialisation and partnerships. Hopefully Tim's phone has been ringing since the PK study was released. There should be another video interview soon. Hopefully there will be separate further news soon for LTHs.

Whenever the sp rises by circa 40% in a day, the morning after is a case of finding where it settles especially in the absence of any immediate news to follow-up. I tend to follow the Bid as that shows the underlying strength and this seems to have its floor set at 7p. So this seems the base for further appreciation, unless you have drop in confidence. There'll be a lot of noise, however the current sp is still at a discount to the last Director's buy and placing. Key progress that needs to be demonstrated is commercialisation route now (especially of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP)) as the last trading update was in November on this. And so, an updated timeline on P3 trials and commercialisation would be appreciated by the market.
To be fair to the BoD, they have stuck to their published timeline for lupus PK study and delivered a placing at a premium in December. So the critical loss of confidence that saw the sp fall to 5p should be on the road to be repaired.

Indeed @Thordon, the key value drivers before the P3 results will be the CIDP programme which could complete ahead of the Lupuzor Phase 3 trial and "potentially reach registration and commercialisation up to a year earlier than the Lupus indication." It would be this, where the November trading update indicated commercial discussions with 2 prospective commercial partners. So an update is needed on this and progress on BioAMB and BioCin. For LTHs this has been a long and torturous road however there seems direction now.

We should see in the next day an updated video interview with Tim McCarthy and Proactive Investors https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/908096/streamlined-immupharma-pushes-ahead-with-drug-research-efforts-908096.html

For all the guff that this will slip back, new PIs must remember that Tim McCarthy bought 250k shares @ 8.26 in Aug 2021. Similarly Tim Franklin bought 125k at the same time. So no doubt MMs may try and scare some newbies that there'll be a slip back. However this is a Clear Buy if one thinks that the Benchmark price for the Landstead Sharing Agreement is set @ 14.6p and the placing price was @ 11p. With 100% Margin requirements for anyone buying via spread bets, there is an expectation that the sp will rise further from here. Fun and games, and frustrations no doubt along the way mind you, but the near 40% uplift today is just a reflection on how much the sp had fallen since the placing news in December. The current sp is just back to the level the sp was @ last September. So hardly a premium given that since September, funding has been secured and the PK Study passed.

The 6-month results in August should be the kick-off for a price uplift because the of the confirmation of debt clearance. I think others here have suggested that some parts of the order book are weighted to the back-end of the year, though I have not checked.

There have been the following sales in recent month as below:
(1) AMT Sybex sold for circa £40m though Jonas will only pay £23m on completion with the potential additional consideration of up to £17m is payable to Capita over 24 months.
(2) Secure Solutions and Services (SSS) business to NEC Software Solutions UK sold for £62m.
d) Sale of Trustmarque to One Equity Partners for £115m.

So just from the 3 above you have £200m worth of disposals which have yet to be used to bring down the debt. I would hope that they didn't wait till August to confirm to the market on the debt reduction and just used either the Yellowstone presentation or the AGM to provide a statement.

Been a bit distracted with my other major holding (IMM), which you may hear about in the coming days.
For CPI, the frustration of being stuck in the 20p to 22p range is starting to wear on us all. With the FTSE circa 7,600 it is disappointing that CPI did not rebound higher with the wider market. The FTSE strength is in contrast to the DOW weakness. Today's sp reflects the wider macro sentiment with the UK March CPI coming in at 7% year on year, ahead of forecasts of around 6.7% seen, and up to its highest level for 30 years.
Specific to CPI I am still of a view that the very tight trading pattern since the beginning of March is suggestive that a background accumulation of shares is underway. Disappointing to those that had promised a rocket back to the 40's by this time, but not a crash as some posts suggest. With the AGM on the 10th May, one has to think that further news will come before then, and the enforced holding pattern will be lifted by the MMs.
GLA

How high can this go, and will we be spiked is a common concern for newbies. For existing holders, especially those that bought it at 5p some will be looking to lock in profits given the drudgery of past events.

However both need to remember that the Lanstead Subscription detailed in the 20th December RNS showing that the Sharing Agreement has a Benchmark Price of 14.6667 pence per share for the Company to receive at least, or more than, the gross Subscription of £2.2 million. So any sp above 14.6667 pence per share means that IMM get financing from Landstead. So internally 14.6667 p is the Management's target.

So how hight can this go in the short-term is 15p.

The last few months have been a bore and seen some posters bitter from being spiked in 2018. That said, the Bid is already above 8p in the back so those who had added @5p in the interim will already be 50% up. Smile, enjoy and let it ride. Good day for LTHs. Enjoy it.

Bit of a drop in the bid in the back today. Hopefully this is short-lived and will be reversed. Noticed quite a few roll-overs spread-bets being placed towards the end of last week despite margin requirements being 100% (so not very attractive), so news still expected here.

@UltraInvestor thanks for the clarification of the trades circa 09:46 yesterday. Usually the roll-overs have a reversing trade with a minus (-) trade, hence the mis-reading.

The details of the Lanstead Subscription detailed in the 20th December RNS showing that the Sharing Agreement has a Benchmark Price of 14.6667 pence per share for the Company to receive at least, or more than, the gross Subscription of £2.2 million. So this would suggest that the sp target of 15p is indeed achievable in the short-term if the RNS is good. That said the last Lanstead Sharing Agreement had a benchmark price of 13p+, which it hardly achieved.

There were two drops today, one circa 09:40 when c. 500k shares were sold and took the Bid down to 5.3, and then again at 16:00 where there was a sale of 200k shares taking the Bid down again to 5.3.

The sp rebounded pretty quickly from the earlier drop, which was a bit more scary given the volume. So confidence can be taken from that. It seems like the same Seller which has been selling consistently since the placing at 11p in December. So seems like MMs kicking the tyres to get shares from nervous PIs. At least I hope. One has to think that with all that has gone wrong for LTHs here, the only way is up. But then we keep on hoping ;-)

All in all a pretty consistently poor showing from IR, which gives no confidence to to PIs. As they're only releasing 1 RNS per Quarter, then it is hardly an excess to update the market if your timing is delayed by a week or so. Though some have been able to top-up with their pension payments in the last 3 months, it has been a complete disappointment given that the placing was 50% higher than the current sp.

Once has to take come confidence that the placing price would not have been at such a premium had there been worries of the PK Study.

The Seller keeping the sp in check, however some decent volume buys...Hopefully news on Monday or some will be having a hissy fit.

The bid has dropped in the back again. It has done so in the last few days, and then bounced back. Interesting spread bet seems to have been taken early today with the reversed out trade of 100k shares. This would equate to a £1k per penny movement spread bet, if it was indeed taken and not just a reversed out trade.
Basically no major leak either way as I can figure, with the Seller keeping the sp in check when it seemed to rally last week. MMs seem to be dropping the bid as no RNS for nearly 2 months and no update, even though expected. Hoping for no surprises, but TM has yet to convince.