Member Info for notaflipper

Amazing to see that CINE spiked (upwards, yes UP!) after that. That's one crazy BB.

She said there was not going to be a windfall tax on energy firms. So the options that remain add to National Debt, which probably mean a longer term payback on additional borrowing taken to pay for Covid. Main reason for slip back is that the FTSE is following DOW which has opened down. Putin threatening to cut energy supplies to the West in response to price cap didn't help. Would agree we saw the start of the expected uptrend before the slip back. Hopefully the game plan still works.

St Leger Day falls on Sep 15th. Same day as MPC. So the Head of BoE said that the new plans will help but there'll still be a recession. So the general market bull run you see after St Leger day may be tempered. Feels like a trajectory of increasing uncertainty that though started with the Financial Crisis has been escalating since 2016.

The 25,640,254 Options in IMM originally held equally by L1 and Lind, had to be exercised by 10 June 2023, with an exercise price of 11 pence. The result of the placing was that they could not be redeemed and so they amended the exercise price from 11 pence to 5 pence and increased the number of Options held by L1 and Lind from 25,640,254 to 56,408,558.

Luckily, the the Benchmark Price in relation to the 2021 Sharing Agreement wasn't also increased by 50 per cent. from 14.6667 pence to 22 pence.

I agree with posters like @maestro1, that the most recent placing was not required before the FDA decision. Both that, and the recent exercising of Options does suggest some positioning by insiders to profit once news lands. This is AIM, so we are used to seeing people get their snouts and just have to hold our nose.

I appreciate that the Options exercised so far may be forward sold in anticipation, however the amount of Options being exercised to date are relatively small to the number held. Main question is at what point will we see selling into any expected rise. SP seems to be taking developments in their stride so hopefully we can get into the teens, and finally achieve the Benchmark price which one would hope is an aspiration of TM's.

No evidence that shorts have been reduced.
UK August Retail Sales have come in up 1% y/y but down from 2.3% in July according to the British Retail Consortium as spending continues to be crimped by the increases in costs of living
So expecting disappointment here till Interim Results at end of September, with expectations to be poor. Should see recovery after dust settles then.

Broadly flat. Should see real reaction as new Cabinet announced, and new policies. Market will be wary of £30bn tax cuts and addition to National Debt. This will be balanced by relief that at least some one appointed. Main thing will be what new Chancellor says. So there'll be some sentiment reflecting in FTSE swing, which CPI will follow. Broad response so far is as below:
a) FTSE 100 +0.09%
b) FTSE 250 -1.19%
c) GBP/USD +0.39%
d) GBP/EUR +0.19%

Expecting quite a few announcements in next 2 weeks before MPC on 15th. Already calls for another General Election. The UK seems recently to be having one every 3 years, so think we are overdue.

Flat...who'd have thought with al the competing posts ;-)
Main observation is the very low volume and number of trades, given that the wider market is 1% down. Not sure if there's reason.

Major European indices down 2% to 3%. FTSE should open 1%, so less than France and Germany. Whether it recovers during day, and impact on CPI, we will have to see. New PM should be announced by afternoon.

With apologies to @Aim's infamy across LSE which can cause other PIs, and stock prices' to shudder, I suspect that the market on Monday will be driven principally by the market's reaction to whom the new PM will be. The likelihood of Truss as the new PM has caused some concern as she will likely add more to the National Debt through VAT cuts and other green energy tax reliefs/cuts. However, this will be balanced with an end to uncertainty as tbh the UK has been at a bit of standstill whist the new PM has been decided.

On points of substance it is right though cuts in gas flows through Nord Stream have driven up European and British gas prices, with prices rising to record highs last week ahead of the Aug 31- Sept. 2 maintenance.
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zjpqkbxmjpx/Pasted%20image%201661858032987.png

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline which transports gas from Russia to Germany was undergoing maintenance from Aug.31 – Sept. 2. It said yesterday that it will not resume supply, cutting Russian gas supply flows to zero and raising concerns about a prolonged halt to supply and further European gas price spikes.
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/gkplgorkxvb/Pasted%20image%201661858664133.png

The European Union aims to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and has begun looking for alternatives, such as by increasing imports of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). But Europe has limited capacity to receive LNG and supply concerns deepened after production was halted at a major U.S. export plant owned by Freeport LNG following an explosion.

So long story short, the UK will be having a difficult winter with expectations of a recession as per concern raised in original post by @Aim. However we may still see 30p in the next few weeks as we may see a flurry of new policies before the next MPC meeting on 15th, where again we will see another raise in interest rates. This will also be needed as the Pound is falling now, as interest rates rising more elsewhere like in the US.

Wrt CINE, a massive pump and dump is underway fuelled by Twitter rumours of restructuring will see a reduced haircut and dilution. Investors, and there only a few on the BB, would ask why if this was genuine that IIs are still reducing their holdings this week. So big spikes as per the last weeks of Thomas Cook where if you have the stomach for a quick in-and-out you can make 100%+ in a week, and more through spread betting. Shorts temporarily removed, to be reset at higher levels for another short attack. Stock trading and its best, and worst. Hopefully some PIs here don't get caught out. Remembering the trading in the last weeks of Thomas Cook, this pump and dump will happen a few times. So, a few more dead cat bounces to go despite the Twitter speak.

Reminds me of what happened with TUI, which spiked and nose-dived from one day to the next. Same outcome, for those that don't manage a quick in, and out.

Right call about there being a dip come Friday, as the day traders will bank their profit over the weekend. If you are still on side lines then best await still, till after then and not heed those that inevitably will say "Don't want to be out of this over the weekend".

No worries. Tried to give a head's up. Hopefully some listened and did not get spiked, or lose out on locking in profits. There'll be a few more dead cat bounces, but the conclusion here is a shareholder wipe-out. Greed is good.

100% rise in last few days. PIs realise this is a hot potato on way to bankruptcy. Falling fast as PIs locking out profits for rinse and repeat.

Put my order in for sub 2p.

@Nolupus: Cheers, thanks for clarification

As most, bored and anxious. Whilst we await, was wondering if there was any chance that the FDA would grant the application with Priority Review designation as they had done with Benlysta for Lupus treatment in children, or more recently with Covid-19 vaccines?

Have to keep in mind that it is only 2,000,000 new ordinary shares which have been exercised, whereas the number of Options held by L1 and Lind increased from 25,640,254 to 56,408,558 in the last placing. Only makes sense to exercise if they didn't think that the sp was not gonna tank by 90% as some were suggesting last week. Does it pass the smell test?

Nothing "nailed on", but best that PIs can do is look for signs of confidence in the last few months.
Still time to move in, or out. No shame in it, either way.
All reported past transgressors equally welcome.
Bid strengthening in back.
Each to their own.
GLA (*__*) NP

Bid recovering having dropped 1st thing in morning to trigger stop losses.

They have just dropped the Bid in the back to trigger stop losses.
There's no leak yet. Just have to ask why would TM take part in low-ball placing if this was gonna go south.

Best to monitor the FDA Press Releases directly:
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements

Some increased traffic, and interesting articles on #IMM hashtag on twitter. If it goes our way, then expect the crowd to come in quickly and for a lot of social media traffic.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/imm?src=hashtag_click&f=live