Member Info for notaflipper

It will be interesting to see whether the ever so slight decrease in Marshall Wace's short (of 0.01% to 0.79%) will continue in the coming days and whether this signals the start of a run up to the Trading Update. GLA

Though some of the commentary is obvious in its intentions it still makes it no less frustrating to read in the backdrop of the sp performance. My main ambiguity is when the trading update will be, and wish it to be sooner than December tbh at this rate. What I feel fairly confident about is that we will be hearing of Marshall Face short decreasing beforehand as well as another holdings RNS from either RWC or Shroders. Hopefully that will put an end to the 50p saga and onto the 60s, which is my exit. GLA

Today's sale was small in scale to past sales (e.g. ESS) and then again for an undisclosed sum. Significance to me was the context in relation to the 1st October RNS, whereupon on the sale of Secure Solutions and Services for circa £62m there was suggestions that sales to pay down the debt had already totalled circa £600m. Today's sale was the 7th exit in 12 months. So for me the significance is that in the expected trading update we should be confirming that this milestone should be achieved if not overshot.

Yes. 0.8%. Have to admit that it is nervous times with a sizeable position here for the final leg up. The last short increase was followed by a Holdings RNS from RWC. They and Shroders have been buying quite a bit at these sp levels since August. So let's hope there's an imminent end game they're aware of.

I have been accumulating at these lows, however have not felt the need to contribute in the absence of any news. It is difficult to understand why we are treading water, and how in the absence of news this can change. It seems that a Trading Update is due in December, which should mean that the brakes should be released by mid-November in advance. I do hope we do not have to await and another surprise CPI rally is in the offering as agree this is getting tiresome and it would be great for LTHs to get some release.

Having banked a lot of profits at 48p and then piling back in on the hope of a breakout at 51p, today has been a bit annoying to be honest. I suspect there is however some background accumulation happening hence the pull-back from 55p+ and the increase in shorts. The weak macro market sentiment on inflationary fears has also not helped. That all said with the recent sale confirming the £700m disposal programme is on track, you just have to ask what else will it take for this to get back to pre covid levels

Bought further on the dip. Best to stay focused on the long term potential value here.

Key issue is the weak indices this week with worries in Asia and US, on the latter on their Infrastructure bill being postponed although there will be no federal shutdown. May see a weak US opening later with worries on inflation data to be released, so the US investors may await till next week.

Great news. Key part of the RNS was below:

Capita continues to make good progress towards its target of £700m of proceeds from disposals in 2021 and the first half of 2022. Adding the expected proceeds from this disposal to the amount that Capita has already raised would bring the total proceeds to circa £600m.

So hopefully the market should now be convinced of the turnaround and finally we should see a proper appraisal. My only concern is what happened after the ESS sale was confirmed where there was a slip back as Investors sold on the news, or were worried on selling revenue generating assets. Hopefully the rise to 55p earlier in the week was just a teaser though of what will happen this week and we can still see 60p by tomorrow! GLA

GLA. Hopefully this was the last MM game to spook 'soft hand' holders before the next leg up to 60p. Few remaining turnaroun or recovery stocks out there.GLA

The questions I ask myself is whether to play the small swing trades, sell at circa 50p to buy at 48p or just let it ride. There's a couple grand in it, and each time I let it ride, you then kick yourself. Then I ask myself how far will it go once they let it run. Hopefully should find soon once background accumulation complete.

I think there's some background accumulation happening hence the sp treading water, with weak and impatient hands being sold into. 47p has held remarkably well as the floor with any dips below being quickly recovered. It could go a few pence further down to this if the news hiatus is protracted, however I suspect the accumulation is happening in advance of news for the next leg up. Hopefully we can just get bloody on with it soon. GLA.

The sp has been surprisingly stable since the 13th August with a tight trading range even after the Schroders announcement on the 26th August. Ordinarily I would have thought that there was some background accumulation happening, however the low volume suggest otherwise. Strange.

As many (reasonably) LTHs have observed this is a bit of a tense period as we tread the same old trading patterns, wondering whether to risk hoping the trend will break. I have to admit to buying in more after the Shroder's announcement.

Obviously it did the trick and the sp fell straight after however I am still fairly confident that in a few weeks' time I will be rewarded. 

My understanding of the RNS was that with 1,684,273,523 shares in voting rights, Schroders now hold 30,935,708,664 (18.36739%) vs 27,030,905,771 (16.049%) they held before. Representing about 3,904,802,892 increase in their shareholding from the 13th August. At a circa trading range of 49p between the 13th August to the 26th this would suggest an outlay of £19,133,534? I caveat the last point as I appreciate my maths on these areas is not great.  

Aside from this the return to interim profits and the £2.6bn in new contracts announced should mean that despite sp jitters the best is yet to come.

I've added again this morning. Perhaps could have gone too early but the expected sell off this morning was not as bad as expected. Still could be a bear trap out there and will be more relaxed when this is closer to 50p. GLA

Irrelevant. He sold out on Friday.

For those that suffered the dip and the excruciating last few months since March, now is the time to be confident and ride the recovery. The Results today especially on forward-looking news on pensions, further disposals planned and free cash-flow seems to have done the trick. Just have to keep buying to make the recovery work for you as it would be surprising if 40p was not easily passed in the next few days.

As ever lots of detail, but I feel far more digestibly presented than the Results earlier in year.

Key themes are that the delivery is on track, some highlights below:
1) Net debt at 30 June 2021 was £182.7m lower at £894.4m (31 December 2020 £1,077.1m)
2) Liquidity was £693.7m at 30 June 2021.
3) £536m disposals and more initiated in summer
4) Expect sustainable free cash flow in 2022
5) Won Total Contract Value of £2,576m, an increase of 70% on prior year (H1 2020: £1,513m)

Some detail I liked...
1) In June CPI signed a £300m Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) with their lending banks for 12 months to August 2023. This new facility includes a conditional extension to August 2024.
2) In June reached a settlement with the Group's Pension Scheme Trustees in respect of the 2020 triennial valuation. Following the previously agreed payment of almost £140m of deficit reduction contributions in the first half of 2021, the new funding agreement will result in £14m of deficit reduction contributions in the second half of the year, £30m in each of 2022 and 2023 and further contributions of £15m in each of 2024, 2025 and 2026.
3) In July CPI repaid £159m of US private placement notes.

You have to say with the disposal program and the Order Book the sp has been held back with concerns over scheduled debt maturities this year and next. So the statement of positive free cash flow next year is the key statement for me as it signals de-risked debt maturities. Let's hope we do not have to wait till 2022 to see the sp recover though!

Disappointing week so far, shame!
3 Capita divisions (Capita Ess, Capita Business Services, Capita Secure Information Solutions though obviously now ESS has been sold) were part of a 34 suppliers in £1.2bn Framework Contract award over the next 4 years.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W31/756088839

Any theories out there why they picked a Friday to issue the RNS on Half Year Results?

Just have to keep buying to make the recovery work for you. Could there be a further retrace, yes, however I think we will see further strengthening of the sp into Results. As others have explained in detail we should hear confirmation of further debt disposals by then. So have to be confident now.

New contract win on bid stats for £2.74m Contract: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W30/755695749