Member Info for notaflipper

I sold £40k last summer and made a lot of money elsewhere but that doesn't matter. I still have a large sum here which to say I regret is an understatement. Analysis here and only on this stock matter, and it is incredible that we are laughing off the latest galling disappointment. Just tired of reading frankly irresponsible posts which fail to recognise how poorly misdirected or served PIs have been. Realistically it may now take till October to assure the market that any of our forecasts are credible given what an incredible last year, best summed up as a masterclass of how not do do Investor Relations. So there you go, another year down the toilet. Add the to rest.
GLA to LTHs

I think the "rampers" or so they're called need to be careful not to laugh off today's news in such a cavalier fashion, especially when our fortunes are put side by side today with the performance of GDR, ODX and more. For the last 10 months repeated concerns have been raised only to be met by hostility and derision. Combined with this the false hopes and missteps seemingly deliberately peddled out by the Company in the few precious updates received which seem designed to confuse shareholders. There were many positive statements supplied just in the H1 Results in December, again backed up by Walbrook in January, which seem to have evaporated come February. And today many of the same posters have shared their achievements in their investments elsewhere, when it is only the opinions of this stock and its performance which matters. Today's drop after the last couple of months is personally galling and I struggle to see any light of the tunnel for LTHs for many months to come. Realistically we may have to see the next Half Year results to see past highs and confirmation of FY'22 trading forecasts which may only then recover the confidence lost. What happens between then and now is anyone's guess. A very poor state of affairs and feeling it too.
GLA to LTHs

Ultimately it comes to trust and outlook. Today's statement confirms much of the worries and frustrations expressed on the BBs. Many had already felt misled by LR by the time the October Trading statement had come out however had still decided to give him the benefit of the doubt as YE forecasts had increased over August. Walbrook unbelievably in January that forecasts were still valid, whilst it is now clear that those closer to the Company had traded down. Now sales are confirmed to be materially impaired though still positive and in double-digit growth. One also has to recognise in last year there has been two acquisitions and clearly an appetite for more. So there'll be some concern just to where this strategy for growth will leave existing shareholders. One has to think how much better a more honest approach would have aided shareholders had it come last Spring. Going to be a long climb back up I am afraid. Will try my best and not look for a few days.
GLA to LTHs

ColSoul, It is indeed a very impressive run that has happened on GDR. My only observation is that as a holder of GDR and not YGEN you have found fit not to share your entry or capital appreciation on the relevant board at any time. We are all consumed by our own phantoms of past trades but we move on. I too have £10k in XTR but this is pre the rights issue, so more of a bottom drawer in the basement fund. We wish you well in your future investments as you now move on. All the best in your future investments

No worries Colsul
I appreciate you are an alias as this can be the only reason why someone who sold out months ago and doesn't hold keeps on posting to just one BB.

Wouldn't be surprised if this is not the only Holding RNS we see as think there's been some background development in the last month.

Nearly there myself. I would be patient for a bit as February and into March should be very interesting here. The FTSE is set to inevitably rally with BoJo confirming that the UK is past the peak and vaccine roll-out milestones and lockdown exit strategy to be announced come mid Feb. For some stocks, having attracted furloughed investors, there'll be the regular bubble. For CPI which has followed the indices movements regardless of whatever contract news is announced there should be gratefully a sp catch-up. With Final results expected early March hopefully we should get a positive trading update and forward looking statement. So hoping to be in the high-40s if not 50s come by March with luck.

Most had already had sold out pre H1 results and those remaining did so with or soon after the H1 results. The sp weakness has to be expected in the absence of promised updates whether it be the COVID Quarterly updates, suggested contract wins and lack of commercialisation progress whether geographically or in numbers. So all the Company's own making and not the result of 'rainbow chasers'.

So that will be a single bed I take it?

Historically when we have seen large background transfers of stocks the MMs have been usually pricing at the mid-point of the spread in order to not affect the price. We did have a background buyer up until Half Year Results which kept the floor at 16p and assured a trading range between 16p to 18p as PIs got fed up and sold out. Once they went away the sp has found it difficult to find stability. Personally speaking I can see I became complacent in retrospect. With every sell there's a buyer however having fallen by 10% on no news in less than a week, and with no expected news shortly, it might be an idea to wait a bit to see if this has truly bottomed.
GLA to LTHs

I would say its been a longer than a week. If you look at the charts since mid-Dec it has followed a tight range, except of course the dip to 33p recently. So since mid-Dec it has in the high mid-30s. I had thought then, as I do still believe now, that there is some background accumulation happening but then again you would have heard about it by know so probably that is wrong. What seems to be the case, without the chartist knowledge on this BB, is that the sp is in a holding pattern and will follow the FTSE index until the Final results in the early March. Hopefully as the vaccine milestones get realised by mid-Feb and the lockdown release strategy gets released on 22nd Feb, we should see a rally. CPI should follow the rally in the FTSE and thereon there should be some rise in expectation of the results. I though would feel much more comfortable if this holding pattern was in the early 40s.

@Threeskins I would agree that this being just a vehicle has been my very main worry for the last 2 years. Deficiencies in market communication in acquisition consolidation, commercialisation, product route map, contract wins and so on are one thing, but these are improved over time with experience and personnel, not preserved as Standard Operating Procedures (SOP). However companies who have have an acquisitive growth strategy have just a completely different approach, not just these individual deficiencies. With 64M+ Options (which by April will inevitably grow further) plus 15% of Ordinary Shares owned by Management Team the most likely scenario is for the same strategy of the last couple years to be played till 2023/24 (LR's 5 year target) when a TO will be accepted sub-20p. For some older PIs here this doesn't make it a bad investment as long as you play the same game and treat it more as an annual premium bond which you top up each year to keep up with the share dilution. However for some LTHs it is a completely different investment decision which they didn't sign-up for.
GLA to LTHs

Apologies on the move and had tried to stop looking a couple of hours ago. Seems to have taken up a gear since then. Time to take out the tin hat lol.
GLA to LTHs

Debt was cleared in Feb 2019. I think the 1st time that the debt clearance was mentioned publicly was in a conference between Tom Winnifrith, Adam Reynolds, Barry Hextal and Dr Steven Little. This was at the Nigel Wray London seminar on the 16 October 2018, so after the botched placing but still when it was called Premaitha and FinnCap were brokers. LR was appointed in July 2018. So happenned on LR's watch and have to give him the credit as he went to the US to finalise this. However realistically he had a running head start. Every PI will have their own view on the purchases. As before having an acquisitive dilutive strategy is fine and PIs should look past the "D" word. Key thing though is taking the investors with you.

As to today's drop, it still feels like small PIs who are profit taking, trading opportunistically down or having margin calls triggered. Nothing fundamental. However till there's a response we can only watch. The Company saw the sp fall below 7p before and didn't give a response, so not expecting anything from Walbrooke. I suspect some LIIs have expressed their concern and the current sp is now getting back to Directors' past historical (and low) purchases (e.g. AR bought quite a few hundreds of thousand in 2018 at 11p and Bill Chang's core holdings are at 9p). Only other thing that could happen is a distressed sale could be triggered but I don't think it is on anyone's radar and will not happen. I suspect many would be happy to stop monitoring the sp and narrative saga in the latter scenario.
GLA to LTHs

My research notes had it that 8 shareholders currently owning 70.21% of the issued shares, and there was a recent placing at 47p which the CEO's brother took part in. I think the official shares in public stand slightly higher at circa 43%. Steady buys since Friday's RNS. Not the fireworks we were hoping but should see the available free float used up in next week or so and this should then move rapidly.

Depends on what the definition of significant share holder value is. Companies do have 5 year plans, but also allow some cheer to investors before 5-years. It should not be a L-Shaped IRR where you end up in 2023 at a sp below that you were at in March 2015.
Frankly I thought it was an amazing statement for an AIM-listed CEO to make. For many it was a derisory target to shell-shocked PIs when it was 1st delivered in Oct 2018 (from memory) following the Illumina settlement in Sep 2018. I seem to recall not a few PI's who had stood by the Company through the legal challenges were appalled by that statement having already gone through years of funding calls to fight the litigation woes and thereon the settlement. That statement together with the botched placing led to the sp falling to sub-7p post legal settlement wasn't the best start for LR, having taken over when the sp was 16p+. Hardly the long-awaited cheer many had awaited. One could argue that 3 years on with a doubled Management Team/BoD and staff that we (or they) have moved on...the sp has also so, so moved on.
Going forward, Walbrooke's target for FY'22 is £28.7m and £35.9m in FT'23. With limited news expected now till April we will have to see whether the sales targets will be met and if there's any further commercialisation news (e.g. new products, geographical expansion). Should greater confidence be found by April in these sales targets then on a multiple of 5x Sales Revenue we should see a sp appreciation between the 17p to 24p range in the next year or so (£24.9m Sales x 721m shares, £35.9m Sales x 721m shares respectively). That said given the narrative from last year, let alone from before, we should see some PI churn and profit-taking which will stagger sp appreciation.
I discount US listing as for me that's a red herring. The other main opportunity/risk will be if there's any further acquisitions. I am actually not against this. If you see tech companies like Microsoft or Facebook they have had a "buy or bury" market growth approach. So this strategy can be very rewarding to shareholders. However it does require that each acquisition leads to a significantly higher sp so that each subsequent acquisition is progressively cheaper. Question is has this been done here with the BoD keeping dilution to the bare minimum and choosing worthy targets:
Acquisition placings and pricings below:
- August 2020 £16.15 million raised through the issue of 95 million shares at 17p per placing share to finance Coastal Genomics.
- 10th March 2020 the Company raised £2.5 million via issuing 17,482,517 new ordinary shares at 14.3p for AdGeniX. This was before the Manufacturing Agreement with NCYT on 24/03.
- In April 2019 [1st purchase of LR's] for £2.9 million equity they acquired Elucigene via 24,581,111 new shares at price of 11.7p.
- In Dec 2016 [pre-LR] there were 76M new shares at 9p per share issued for YourGene to satisfy £6,840,000 acquisition
GLA to LTHs

Apologies as had forgotten to answer key question raised...
My understanding is that the Warrants issues in Dec 2015 and Sep 2016 had an expiry date of 8 years. The interest rate of 6% on the loans that these Warrants were supplied have now been written off following the Feb 2019 restructuring. Basically Premaitha (now Ygen) had to start repaying these loans from 2022 onwards. However in Feb 2019 Life Technologies/TMO wrote off £12.7 million of loans, including accrued interest, in return for £6.5m in commission payments for NIPT sales in South East Asia. Here again the lack of visible TMO support and penetration of YGEN is noticeable which could suggest that it is not in TMO's interests to beef up YGEN's market capitalisation if it is a potential target. However because of the commission payments in South East Asia you would have thought that YGEN would grow other markets in the Patent Pool area (e.g. US). Here to it has to be accepted there would be royalty payments to Illumina
GLA to LTHs

Life Technologies exercised warrants for 41,356,165 ordinary shares at an average exercise price of 9.2 pence per share. This back in 2019 gave Life Technologies approximately 9 per cent ownership of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company. However in the latest Investment Summary from Walbrooke their ownership has fallen to circa 6% as a consequence of the share dilution by LR in the intervening years. These 41M shares are subject to a lock-in period for 3 years. So I think the lock-in period ends in 2022.

"Life Technologies to retain its remaining tranches of warrants over 54,332,541 ordinary shares in the Company with a weighted average exercise price of 16.6 pence per ordinary share, giving it a fully exercised position of approximately 17 per cent on a fully diluted basis." However this circa 17% was before the Euciligene and Coastal Genomics acquisitive dilution and so expect post exercise this to be sub 14%.
Source: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/yourgenehealth/news/rns/story/xl53kjw

As mentioned before Thermo Fisher have been a key player in both the US and UK to drive mass PCR testing (25k+ a day) so the lack of support from them to YourGeneHealth is noticeable.

I don't see anything suspicious on the latest sp weakness. The Company's commercialisation and investor communication has been consistently lagging compared to other NIPT and COVID players so it is unsurprising where we are now. Despite the news of Reddit I do not think BB sentiment can influence the sp of a company which has 721m shares in issue. More surprising is the lack of Company to response as the sp price is important to support their strategy of acquisition. Having mislead PIs in their expectations on H1 results, they are are now providing no guidance as to whether core NIPT sales are recovering or on growth potential of DPYD, and at the same time Covid sales that were covering this shortfall are feared to be affected by lock-downs. As such we are trading below others in the Covid and NIPT space as we cannot demonstrate commercialisation and sp potential.

Though many of us would like the ability to move on, frankly the BoD don't care about the narrative they have put LTHs through. They have a strategy which ensures that they can keep on participating in placings at reduced cost and on top of that get more Options each Quarter/Year. They can keep on doing this for a few more years so I wouldn't buy in expectation of an imminent TO. If you look at the amount of shares that insiders like Bill Chang have, they do not need PIs approval and I would expect when announced it would be a fait accompli. More likely this will rumble on for a few years and any LTHs left by then by then would have little reward. This seems confirmed by the sp drift which shows no expectations.
GLA to LTHs

The link which was previous circulated showing £16BN has now been corrected to show £1,300,900,000 as Contract Value over 12 years
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W04/743899426
Think some Web Administrator got an email last night.

Bit depressing when you see another thread of posts on guesswork by PIs and does reinforce some past commentary. As some may know when one adds jobs onto an internal or external job board, you have to give the expiry date for that posting. So another explanation on why a mass of jobs got withdrawn is perhaps that they all had the same expiry date, rather than there was a contract win which was not RNS'd. Looking on LinkedIn can give an idea of the types of new recruits and the new starters. There was a spate of junior lab technicians recruited over the summer, one imagines for the manual assay work on the Clarigene test. Other notable hires in September last year was a Regulatory Affairs Manager.

In the last two months there have been a few new hires from that source but I don't think it is as much as 30, more like less than 10.

The interesting of the new hires is that they hired this month an Internal EMEA Account Manager to cover NHS Genomic Laboratory Hubs, which I was surprised about as didn't think this needed a full-time FTE.

Of the roles advertised it does seem that US expansion is FINALLY a serious target with a Regional Marketing Manager being recruited to be based in the USA to cover America's (US, Canada, LATAM) . I appreciate that some would say there is a US distribution with Immuno-Biological Laboratories Inc and Coastal Genomics acquisition however I had expected more commercialisation of the IONA Nx by now give the legal and development narrative here. Other interesting roles concern H&S and lab manufacturing technicians.
GLA to LTHs