Member Info for notaflipper

All Covid related stocks are blue, even those unlike SNG which have no RNS today. NCYT is soon to eclipse all past highs from even before vaccine announcement in Dec. Over the weekend the Telegraph reported that it quietly extended councils ability to close pubs, restaurants and shops till July 17th. Travel quarantine hotels to be announced later today. The FT has expressed some concerns over Biden's spending plans and so has China, the major buyer, fearing that this will lead to wider systems issues as US voters then use the money on Chinese imported issues, thereby leading to inflationary bubble there. Long story short looks like there'll be a bubble and tears but still money to be traded amongst all that. Hope the BoD understand the macro picture and are planning their strategies accordingly.
GLA to LTHs

I appreciate that many of the bids awarded below have been posted by other posters however I have attached a summary of sorts from the last 2 months to allow new PIs to see the wood from the trees. The below should show that in addition to the mega £1.3BN Royal Navy Contract that Capita has won circa £780.7M in additional contracts in the last 2 months alone. In the same space of time the sp has fallen from nearly 50p at the beginning of Dec to 33.5p at time of writing.

Jan '21
Contracting Authority: BEIS
Title: Commercial Expertise Consultancy Surge Support
Awarded: 4 suppliers which Capita was amongst
Contract Value: £5M

Contracting Authority: Renfrewshire Council
Title: Cash Receipting (Pay360)
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £163K

Contracting Authority: Department for Education
Title: CIF 2021 (Con_7158)
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £180K

Contracting Authority: Sunderland City Council
Title: E-Payment Collection Networks and Associated Services
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £300K

Contracting Authority: Department of Health & Social Care
Title: Managed Learning Services
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £3.5M

December '20
Contracting Authority: Royal Navy
Title: Royal Navy Modernisation Plan
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: circa £1.3BN

Contracting Authority: Transport for London
Title: Business Operations Services Agreement
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £426M

Contracting Authority: Transport for London
Title: Enforcement Operations Services Agreement
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £213M

Contracting Authority: Buckinghamshire Council
Title: Revenues and Benefits Remote Processing
Awarded: 3 suppliers which Capita was amongst
Contract Value: £180K

Contracting Authority: Department of Health & Social Care
Title: Citizen Engagement Director for Testing
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £233K

Contracting Authority: Department of Health & Social Care
Title: NHS Test and Trace Service Design
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £108K

Contracting Authority: NHS North of England CSU
Title: Cervical Screening Administration Service Printing and Postage
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £4.98M

Contracting Authority: Cansfield High School
Title: Provision Payroll & HR Services
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £69k

Contracting Authority: South Oxfordshire District Council Contracts
Title: 5 Councils Corporate Services Project
Awarded: Capita Business Services
Contract Value: £127M

With circa 195+ countries in the world one has to wonder whether Matt Han**** will handle each new variant's discovery as badly as he has handled last week's announcement, as well as this crisis in general. With official death toll in the UK to go over the 100k mark and worries of a 3rd lock down in France the road to recovery was always going to have some dips. I still am minded that this will be in the 40s come mid-Feb when the top 4 high-risk categories will be vaccinated. As these account for 80%+ of the deaths then markets will finally rally and upon which CPI should be on the forefront. Agreed the US finances are a mess and with Biden's spending package it looks set to get worse but think we should still have some cheer before then. Covered margins and still buying but tin hat as a few holes. Still better than a colander lol

I was not swearing btw
******ed = r e t a r d e d
Surprised that this is blocked

Think we may be working ourselves up a bit over here and getting into silly territory again. It is not as bad as being ******ed to the point of "reading tea-leaves". The Company via Walbrooke have issued a latest investment summary in January 2021.
With left-over frustrations remaining from from the H1 results there is understandable scepticism. To be fair the Company has however not allowed PIs to move on from this point by providing limited commercially significant news flows since H1 results although some sycophants would argue otherwise.
https://www.walbrookpr.com/docs/librariesprovider48/default-document-library/investors/ygen-company-summary-(january-2021).pdf
However ultimately it comes down to whether you believe the FY21 forecasts or not which still targets £24.9m and whether there will be interim achievements before then as suggested by the Director purchases above the current sp.
ATB to LTHs

The main problem for holders here, I'm not one currently, will be the uncertainty as decision will not be known before Monday. Expect when it lands there'll be some more compensation from Rishi's always in bloom money tree.
Unfortunately the weekly scaremongering headlines don't contextualize that 88% of deaths are from the top 4 vulnerable groups. All of this lot will be fully vaccinated by mid Feb (with the 2nd shot) and will have a refresher shot in Autumn. The target is 2m vaccinated a week. So if they hit their target the 29m working population should be able to go back to offices by Spring. But think press is now addicted to delivering scare stories and others like the attention

Apologies if this has been posted. Tried to look and see if it was but just too many posts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55774380
Suspect this will be the strategy chosen to contain the introduction of new variants. For the hospitality industry on its knees it's a blow unless the Government takes over their hotels and pays them compensation.
Many other countries have mandatory quarantine in government controlled hotels. My wife is actually in one right now as she's returned to Thailand to see her family and they have to stay, on their own, in a hotel room for 2 weeks. Cannot leave for 1 day. Will be interesting to see how the market reacts. Personally I think the Government and NHS are now addicted to scare the public and cannot go one day being out of the spotlight

Shorts have not been increased in the last week though obviously this may have changed today. Key changes have been an increase in Sandbar's position from 1.22% to 1.32% a week ago on the 15th Jan. They basically have been increasing their short by .1% every week since mid-Dec. Not great but then again at 1.32% the overall 'declared' shorts are still modest and by one fund. I do appreciate NoFear's comments that these 'declared' shorts can only be a tip of the iceberg as below the 0.5% publication threshold they can be privately declared between the FCA and the fund. Also there are so ways via swaps to get around declaring positions above the declaration threshold. For me the company has been de-risked significantly in the last two months and today's shake is not prompted by any news coming onto the market. More the fact that having flat-line for most of the last month some 'wet-hands' are being tested.

Sandbar Asset Management LLP 1.32% 15 Jan 2021
Sandbar Asset Management LLP 1.22% 12 Jan 2021
Sandbar Asset Management LLP 1.12% 5 Jan 2021
Sandbar Asset Management LLP 1.00% 23 Dec 2020
Sandbar Asset Management LLP 0.93% 21 Dec 2020
Sandbar Asset Management LLP 0.71% 16 Dec 2020

Covered margin and increased position at this price. For all the discussion on this BB, the share price has followed a pretty tight trading pattern since mid-Dec hence some of the frustration here. For me the tight trading pattern despite some of the news received would suggest MM games through some background development but who knows. Hopefully the strong resistance at the mid-30s holds and post this shake we start finally seeing an upturn and can retire our tin hats. ATB

It would have required support from Thermo Fisher which was not forthcoming. This could be because they had their own Perkin Elmer's Mass Capacity COVID-19 RT-PCR testing solution. The lack of support from Thermo Fisher has been even noticeable in the UK where they have provided their support to SHS Partners. This has allowed SHS Partners to scale to 25k+ PER DAY capacity.

That PIs want to talk up their investment is fair and to be expected, and actually good to see on this BB. There was some interesting chart analysis on regarding the great sp performance last year a couple of days ago aside which did make me wince though. However we have to be clear what we mean by cutting LR some slack.

When LR took over there was 321,218,279 shares in circulation, now there is over 721m. This is completely ignoring the options which have grown to 64m. As the focus has been on market capitalisation rather than sp performance this has meant that although revenue has grown the sp has reduced from the point that LR took over (circa 16p) in line with the level of share dilution. That is also fine depending on what the ultimate strategy is. For example if it is T/O then when, at what price or if it is to grow organically then when break even can be expected? Obviously PIs are unaware of this and hence why some have struggled to maintain confidence and enthusiasm here. Whereas as we have seen in the recent share purchases and placings, those closer to the Company have increased their holdings at higher sp levels. The problem here is Free Float and market volume which lags behind due to the communication on lack of commercialisation detail. Once again one only has to look at some of the posting threads from this morning to just see how difficult it is to find information, even for LTHs.

Although it is appreciated that there are some markets which still have to be identified we also need to be aware that an incredible amount of slack has been given already. Take for example the IONA Nx...This began its journey in Sep 2018 with a £2.5million placing to fund its development and settle the litigation with Illumina. Last Spring the IONA Nx was developed, received its CE Mark in June and commercially launched in September. We however still do not know how readily available it is within the US, nor whether this is FDA or RUO only approved. This is quite amazing not only because of the litigation pain but also that the Patent Pool commercialisation is strategically important as it is exempt from loan repayments to Thermo Fisher.

I deliberately did not raise the Clarigene Test before where the comparison to Novacyt's PCR test is more stark. I only do so now to illustrate the difference in approaches. Novacyt received their FDA Emergency Use Authorization for their COVID-19 test in March following CE accreditation in February. Here PIs are still unclear on whether this remains a target for YGEN. I suspect not and this could have legitimate reasons such as marketing costs.

Hopefully the above illustrates some examples of the patience given here by PIs. I suspect however that this patience has run its length among some PIs
GLA to LTHs

My understanding is that they used a figure of £30 million for the potential of molecular genetics tests but just in the US and not only for DPYD (RUO not FDA) . This covered think like QST*R XY (RUO), QST*R Pregnancy Loss (RUO), Male Factor Infertility (RUO) and Cystic Fibrosis (RUO). However when you look at the sales forecasts for molecular genetics tests this market potential is not reflected. I was not aware of a EU or global market potential statement as I had thought this was still awaiting public bodies confirmation that this cancer screening should be used (e.g. as seen by Wales, Belgium, PHE). Similarly IONA Nx, which should be a real money spinner with the Private Health insurance reimbursement, is awaiting FDA accreditation confirmation. The point is that the commercialisation detail is not explicit enough, for some here it is, but in the absence the market will appraise only on announced contracts and results. Hence why the sp is where it is, which still seems very negative lol.
GLA to LTHs

I would await describing the US penetration as being determined until there is an update on FDA accreditation. There has been the purchase of Coastal Genomics and the appointment of Immuno-Biological Laboratories Inc ('IBL-America') to drive this expansion but their progress is unknown and an update hopefully will be provided before YE . The market is still at a loss on what the potential size of the DPYD market is, hence no sp appreciation. After a few years post the Euciligene acquisition this should be provided. So because of these black spots the market/broker finds it difficult to appraise. Hopefully we will hear of the alluded to 2 contracts in the Half Year results before month end. Suspect much of the discussions on the PHE contract will not come to anything despite some posters hopes that this would have been a nice Xmas present.
GLA to LTHs

That in London the Local Councils are offering free Covid tests to even those members of the public which are not showing symptoms and do not believe they have it. Seems to be part of a wider drive that if people have to travel to work that they get tested beforehand. Although it was encouraging to hear that that the number of vaccinations given had gone over the 3million+ mark this week, it is sobering to reflect that the rough number of working people in the UK is 29.08 million. So it does give you some idea on how much of a marathon this vaccine roll-out will be and take. Unsurprisingly this week has seen even furloughed Cabin Crews being drafted to boost number of vaccine administrators. Don't think the free Council tests are PCR, but just lateral flow tests for cost reasons, which I suspect we all will at some point have to take (on a regular basis) to demonstrate that we can return and remain in an office environment whilst we await our vaccination.

On a personal note it is surprising some of the medical certificates that are being rolled out. Given countries like Malaysia are asking for all incoming visitors to have a PCR test, this was the common standard across South East Asia. However this week when helping someone to fly back to Thailand to see their family we were told that this was unnecessary and that a "Fit-to-Fly" certificate is only required. This just consists of a virtual call with a GP and a pedestrian chat over any symptoms and social habits. For this you pay £100, which does seem a bit like private GPs cashing in. Thankfully in Thailand, visitors are mandatorily quarantined for 2 weeks in government regulated hotels. So essentially house arrest for two weeks hence the lower infection rate. The common trait with all countries that have fared better in managing the pandemic (e.g. New Zealand, Taiwan) is the tight administration of their borders.

The EU Short Selling Regulation (SSR) is being converted in domestic law following the end of the transition period the key change being that the SSR notification threshold is being reduced from 0.2% to 0.1% from on 1 February 2021. Till then a private share notification must be made when the net short position in shares reaches 0.2% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.2%. The new regulations will apply a new 0.1% notification threshold. As mentioned a public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5%, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.2%.

Coming back to Sandbar though they have increased their shorts marginally in line with the drifting sp, I would be more concerned if new shorts were being taken by Systematica Investments, Ardevora Asset Management, Citadel Advisors and BlackRock Investment Management. Obviously this could be the case and just not over the 0.5% threshold but in the case of Citadel Advisors we would probably have heard of it by now.

Given past years' financial diary I suspect that we might receive a trading update next week. Any expectations?

Why vaccine confirmation test? ~ One possible explanation is that the COVID-19 vaccines don't work instantaneously. You can still catch COVID-19 shortly after getting vaccinated that is the reason why you have to isolate immediately after as it takes a while to actually generate an immune response after exposure to a pathogen. Similarly some people will get the vaccine but may have Covid without realising it as its in the incubation period and they are asymptomatic.

I personally think Covid will become endemic in our society to some level as there'll be some countries who cannot or will not vaccinate their whole population. So we'll have to see what happens in 2022+ but I can foresee scenarios where Health Passports will now become the norm for the long term.

Please don't post any non YGEN stuff here

There's no need for any frustration or abusive posts here. As before, this is good news which reaffirms what mostly has been worked out by the market regarding Partnerships and robustness of the Clarigene 2-Gene testing.

My understanding is that the new Covid variant was announced on the 20th December and shortly thereafter many countries closed their borders to the UK. On the 21st December 2020, Novacyt published results of their silico (computer simulation) analysis to reaffirm the market of their continued validity. On the 22nd December, GDR followed with the same. Yourgene provided their statement on the 24th December following their silico results and now have followed this up on the 11th January with the wet (real-life) lab results. To be fair the neither of the other two companies I have mentioned have updated their shareholders on the wet lab results and this has to be commended. Have their shareholders noticed this I suspect not. For us the delay in updating shareholders till 24th did cause the sp to dip below its normal trading pattern, from which it is still recovering. It could have been worse but to be fair to the BB it was worked out that the Clarigene test as a 2-gene test could deal with the new variant. Releasing an important RNS on Christmas Eve, a notoriously quiet trading day, was never going to get the attention it deserved and can help to explain why the recovery has been slower. So if there's now a further RNS to underline this then fine. It is now there in black and white for investors who need it. Similarly the news on the Partnerships such as with Recova-19 is welcomed as this finally puts to bed questions on which Covid tests they provide. It is appreciated that Recova-19 shared a platform with YourGene Health in early October and so getting an RNS to finally confirm this in is appreciated but perhaps if announced on their website earlier could have avoided some discussions here.

A wrap up RNS before new contract news coming to assure FY targets is great and signals a bottoming of the sp. I do hope however that the fact that they provided this RNS does not signify that the quarterly COVID update is now not coming, or has now been delivered.

I would really appreciate that any new or LTH who had any questions or frustrations that could be explained to felt happy to continue to raise them rather than following the advice to feck off and SELL which seems to be the common advice given every week.
GLA to ALL LTHs

Agree that this was a reaffirmation statement of details already worked out by PIs here. It still helps the wider sentiment to investors who need it stated in RNS. Undoubtedly would it have been better to have been released before. So not sure why the drag. The slow media handlingis noticeable when one considers that Walbrooke also do the media relations for GDR. But it is now affirmed in black and white and should at least start getting some wider recognition. Should also solidify the bottoming out of the share slide.
GLA to ALL LTHs