Member Info for notaflipper

@Colsul the main query is whether the 30ish posts are being hired 'at risk' in anticipation for Contract Award, just being advertised to vet potential candidates or in the process of being hired due to awarded contracts and organic growth. As covered already the commercial roll-out of Iona Nx is still unclear and from advertised posts there is no resource strategy in the Patent Pool countries to support this roll-out as these posts are with few exceptions UK based. This would suggest using some existing (e.g. IBL, Coastal Genomics), or to be announced (e.g. Illumina), distribution agreement. If you looked at the YourGene Health LinkedIn Page they hired their first dedicated Covid technician in July 2020 in anticipation of the Clarigene CE-IVD award in August. Most of the recruitment this year was at this tie but in November you can see circa 8 new actual starters. Most of these being lab technicians which carry out RNA extraction, qPCR and result reporting. These sources and profiles suggest that the lab capacity is up to 2500 Covid tests a day with same day and 24 hour turn around times. This BoD is notoriously a leaky ship so you should see some sp appreciation in advance of news to buy your shares sold if you want. I was thinking we were told earlier in the year that the lack of commercial progress visibility was because we are raising the threshold of what should be reported to shareholders so the contract announcement with Concepta does raise the questions as to what is the threshold if this and not others passed.
ATB to all LTHs

Talks back on. Reconvening on Sunday and then leaders talk again on Monday evening.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55201085

No mention of the debated scheduled on Internal Market Bill on Monday. Suspect these will still go ahead with vote moved to Tuesday. Would be silly to sour things at the last minute.

Main trick I've found with doing business with the French is to invest in a good pen. Sounds silly but they get impressed by these things. Funny thing is actually they think the English are quite lazy as though the French take a long lunch their office hours are longer.

This casual racism aside expect a Blue trading day on Monday with a lot of volume.

@pacman for any product that is CE-IVD accredited they would need to get FDA approval or Emergency Use FDA approved. The World Health, FDA and many other national health bodies list the Covid tests approved by their health bodies. Novacyt got their CE-Mark test on 17 February 2020 for Primerdesign test and the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization
(EUA) for its COVID-19 test on the 23rd March. So if CE-IVD Mark was received for the Clarigene SARS-CoV-2 test on the 3rd August and EUA approval has still not received in December despite YGEN test being a 2-gene test and so better than the Novacyt one approved then chances are it was not applied for, despite the public statements. There could have been legitimate reasons for this, such as limited testing capacity, it being a saturated marketed already and would need a large marketing spend to compete with other US companies like Abbott/Roche, Thermo Fisher and Illumina. Legitimate reasons but which mean that you should discount this from your investment decision as I do on statements of a Nasdaq listing and a surprise bumper Christmas contract award/bonus.

What is more important is whether the US distribution agreement with Immuno-Biological Laboratories Inc ('IBL-America') which originally covers only DPYD will be extended to cover the IONA Nx. So the Elucigene DPYD was CE marked Europe and in the US it was to be sold as Research Use Only ('RUO') to the research sector and to CLIA-certified laboratories for in-house validation prior to clinical use, with the potential for full FDA registration later depending on customer demand. Some ramping on a webinar on DPYD you may see is being held. You will observe this is with the same IBL which is the company that YGEN signed a distribution agreement about in September. Key questions remain on whether this has now full FDA or only RUO approval. The Iona Nx was launched in September also needs to have clarified whether it has FDA or RUO approval and what the commercial roll-out will be. For example will the distributors be IBL or Coastal Genomics.

Indeed if you have the funds and patience it is a nice set-up and not a bad investment. It is just different from the expectations of the normal AIM investor, and what most LTHs invested in, as it relies on increasing your holdings to accompany each dilution to meet the same investment objectives. That is why you see some holders here with frankly incredibly large holding in an arguably illiquid stock when they are not an insider. So it is a nice set-up but contrary to the instincts of most PIs and why you see a polarised debate here. Great if you can do it and more fairer if had been initiated at a better exit price for PIs/LTHs who don't want to part of it. Sure there will be plenty of debate, beers and cheers between now and April.

Shortracker updated to show that Sandbar Asset Management LLP have reduced their short position from 0.72% to 0.67% (so minus 0.05%) on 3rd Dec 2020. This is below their previous low position of 0.69% on the 25th Nov 2020. Main news for Monday morning obviously is Brexit. For me I see this dragging on till early next week but a positive statement being released for Monday to calm the market.

Key thing is whether the government's Internal Market Bill return to the House of Commons on Monday. This is the reason why a deal had to be done by Sunday as that and the Finance Bill, scheduled to be tabled on Tuesday, both contain clauses contradicting the Protocol on Northern Ireland, signed with the EU last year as part of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. So if these both get voted on and approved it would really sour relations.

For me: Positive statement pre-Monday open but no-deal. Parliament delays vote till later in week . Market has a few jitters but remains surprisingly flat with a strong trading towards end of day as Barnier equally surprisingly heads back to UK for (final) negotiations before EU virtual summit later in week. Obviously I have hidden agendas here so please shoot down.

@ColSoul to be fair one has seen some suggestions of background buys to balance the exiting of PIs usually at the mid-price so to not affect the sp. Hence the sp holding the trading floor. So someone is buying the shares, arguably on the cheap. Some PIs would prefer a more explicit Management Buyout as under Vialogy. Yes, it does help to be part Private Investigator in addition to being a PI here. However to be fair to Paul and the rest of Walbrooke they also do the PR for many other diagnostics companies, like ODX. So you just need to look at a sample of RNS from these and compare them to YGENs to see the difference in instructions.

As suggested before the Results look increasingly to be held up by other background news as the figures WILL NOT change from the TU. Could come next week alongside Brexit news, more likely in quiet period to avoid risk of sp slump as with TU. Hopefully forward statement and awaited background news is there. The market may otherwise may just await till April when the Trading Update on Year End is given to see if the aggressive sales targets met, especially in light of 1st Half sales growth. So lots of opportunities for more beer, and cheer, going forward.

Yes there was more of an expectation that this would fall to the mid-80s. Though intra-day highs have been higher I think the key test will be whether it can close above the 97p region for a few days or whether we will see a new trading channel to the low 90s again for a buying opportunity to re-enter.

No your right No Fear. Apologies for my simplistic narrative. Citadel Advisors just increased their short from 0.48% held by 0.2%. As you said you would have to include on the list Ardevora Asset Management with 0.46%. I believe the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) have reduced the declarable threshold to 0.1%.

Compared to CINE, the CPI sp has rebounded surprisingly quickly. Although I am confident a deal will come by Tuesday morning the question is what will happen on Monday without a breakthrough over the weekend so I too am sitting on the fence on till later today.

These forums and posts are outlets for people's agendas so I would discount the majority of these. In summary the sp was getting to the top of a trading channel and some pullback was expected as this resistance bar was to be tested. Brexit discussions did not help, nor the 0.5% new short by Citadel Advisors LLC. Movements were then exacerbated by stop losses.

Those who have sold and are advising others to likewise would probably have set up a buy order in the event the sp breaks out into a new trading range. Those who have held probably will have been spooked this morning and have since created stop losses to protect their profits going forward. Realistically you can see the same thing happen many times over in the next few days. Though they will be plentiful, the posts here will not have a bearing on the sp.

Main question here is what will happen in the Brexit discussions and whether to re-enter/remain in the market before COP or whether a deal is more realistic early next week before the EU leaders videoconference meeting already scheduled for December 10-11. As to whether ESS is imminent? Well it would have been a very brave decision by Citadel if this was so. However the underlying strength in the sp is more a reflection of the growing underlying confidence in Capita's recovery.

No it is not correct. My use of the word "aspiration" was in the sense of it being an objective of the Company, not a "dream". The Company could have prioritised breakeven before now without the largess of its BoD and with a circumscribed acquisitive growth strategy. They have prioritised market growth and capitalisation and so it has not been a SMART objective for them. Of course achieving B/E does wonders for a sp and you just have to look at Tesla's share price from when they achieved. Similarly there are some tech companies which have been taken over before achieving B/E as well as bio companies (notably Sequenom) which have been sold after loosing high-profile IP cases. My original investment strategy here was based on a TO with TMO who would want (then called) Premaitha's IP to head-off Illumina's sequencer sales that would follow Illumina's NIPT CE-IVD VerifiSeq in their land grab drive. The writ resolution changed the game plan here and my investment holding here, horizon and exit price have massively changed accordingly. We all have past and future dreams and so we move on.

As I am obviously digging myself into a hole best keep digging and say I don't also agree about the £6.5m theory. My recollection was that once cashflow positive YourGene will have to START paying a commission up to a cap of £6.5 million however this was ONLY through a commission on sales within Southeast Asia NOT worldwide. The Company's earning in Europe, US and the Patent Pool areas are exempt. This is what makes the stalled commercial roll-out of the IONA-Nx even more frustrating, let alone the lack of explicit TMO support to drive Southeast Asian sales. Also my understanding is that this is already reflected in the books as a liability of £6.5 million which would materialise only in the event of a sale of the Company or its insolvency. One could look at it as for example if TMO took YGEN over they would have a £6.5m credit already. What is more interesting is what happens next year when the three year lock-in period of Life Technologies shares expires. Next year (from memory) Life Technologies could in theory start exercise warrants it holds in the Company over 41,356,165 ordinary shares at an average exercise price of 9.2 pence per share. These warrants gave them 9% of the enlarged Company in 2018 however there's been quite a few placings since then which Life Technologies have not featured highly on to maintain or increase this %.

ATB to all LTHs

It will become an inherent danger like AIDS. With the Pfizer two-dose vaccine costing $40 and more than 50% of the world's population living under $10 per day, it is likely that many Middle Income and Emerging economies will simply not be able to afford to give the vaccine to their population and some sort of control at airports will need to be in place for a generation. So if you thought taking off your shoes and laptop was a pain, now you'll need to take a Covid-free digital passport with pre-flight test.

Returning to here...Pretty flat all day with a very strong finish hopefully that means something and this was not an MM game as the Limit Orders and Buy Orders got totally screwed and costly to buy in again for the finish. Shorttracker website which has been down, is now back up running, positions are unchanged.

I am not sure if that query was directed to me and equally unclear as to the necessity of the tone. However as mentioned before the share price is pretty much today the same as at the time of LR's appointment though revenue has grown from £8.88m (FY19) to £16.61 (FY20) to potentially £24m (FY21). When I have spoken to Barry H. about this disconnect previously his advice was that shareholders should focus more on the market capitalisation. From memory the number of issued shares (excluding options and warrants) has grown from the 387m in 2018 (pre-litigation) to 721m as of today. So some in the Company would ask shareholders to recognise that market capitalisation has grown by 86% during this tenure, which I think is more their focus. ATB to LTHs.

"Break-even" is a reflection of one's aspirations and whether it forms part of the game plan here.

LR used to be Group CEO at British Biocell International (now BBI Group) for over 9 years where Penny McCormick, CEO of MyHealthChecked, used to be the Group Head of Marketing. Both LR and Adam Reynolds are Non-Exec Directors of MyHealthChecked. This Company is Concepta with the name change to MyHealthChecked PLC. With the Bhavika Patel, Dr Greg Fitzgibbon, Jane Kelly and Dr Paul Docherty on Concepta's Scientific Advisory Board, it's already pretty incestuous without the need of a merger. Essentially this just adds the Clarigene test on their website https://myhealthchecked.com/ The Genome Store infrastructure developed by Bhavika Patel, Dr Greg Fitzgibbon and Dr Paul Docherty will provide retail customers access to a COVID PCR self swab test. Some could argue why these current Directors of YourGene Health are not just doing it in-house rather than giving a contract to a company they are invested in but its an outlet. A horrid 2-year chart for Concepta's shareholders so it is nice to see they've gotten a 30% rise today even in spite of Pfizer's news. I think with LR and AR on-board you will see a similar change in the TDIM to provide a fresh start for shareholders.

Main news today was the Elucigene DPYD test where given the T/O price that was paid over a year ago now it is good to some delivering here. Hopefully with this news as well as the approval in US, mainland Europe and Australia we can get some commercial appraisal on the potential market value and the position of our offering. Key thing will be forward looking statement in Half Year audited results which is increasingly looking to be released in the Christmas quiet period. GLA to LTHs.

My understanding is that the sale relates to Capita Employee Benefits Ltd [Company number 02260524]. I do not think they've filed the Full Accounts for 2019 with Companies House but you can get the 2018 report for free. I think the Consolidated Group report just gives the consolidated revenue but does show an investment of £61m into Employee Benefits Ltd during the year up to Dec 19.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/02260524/filing-history/MzIzNTgyNzY3N2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0

Sorry not sure. Nothing on Benefex's website and this is the only article, with similar content, on Marketscreener. Not sure if Bain was also involved as advisers as they're heavily invested into Benefex.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CAPITA-PLC-4007375/news/Capita-sells-Employee-Benefits-business-to-Benefex-31908386/

Main disposal is of course the Educational Unit, which I do hope as well will come this side of Xmas too.

https://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4024280/breaking-capita-sells-employee-benefits-business-benefex

Dated: 01 December 2020 [no time stamp]

Ah thanks for the clarification. Apologies @Club for the misdirection, we both learnt something.

@Club the RNS is just a statement of fact. From what I can see nothing has changed from yesterday, but forgive me if I am wrong. It is just a clarification statement of the number of voting shares and their voting rights. It is what this significance of this clarification holds for you. Similar to a general election, these type of clarifications like who can and cannot vote, precede a ballot. So for some, the clarification signals that there will be a vote in the near term. For others, this will be just a housekeeping RNS.

Should we take this as a signal? Opinions on a post card please