Member Info for notaflipper

Apparently there is a webinar with the Head of Capita IR on 10th Dec. Should we be expecting anything beforehand?

Exactly. Seems like an open goal if you look at the FT article and the CEO's statement from the 2 November 2020 that "We expect to deliver a pleasing profit performance in the first half". With a 20% increase in instructions for the 5 months since June as well as the wider news of the Pfizer vaccine getting EU approval by Monday you have to expect that the FTSE will shrug off the Brexit trepidation by the end of the week. With unaudited results due on the 15th Dec it is reasonable to expect a rise up to the 15th Dec.

Despite the low volume here the thing that attracted me to the share was the low Free Float. Hence when it moves, it moves.

There's been a seller around for a few months now. With the 8 shareholders currently owning 70.21% of the issued shares, I don't think that anyone of the insiders or those involved in the recent placing at 47p have been selling out. So suspicions are that it is just a PI with a big holding. It seems that the lack of news flow is connected with the seller. The logic being why pump the share for it to be sold into. That said this has been going on for quite a while now and it is noticeable that the impaired order book has not been revised. I guess we will just have to wait and see in the coming weeks whether the seller is out and the news flow starts. Cannot imagine those involved in the placing are best pleased with the current sp.

Apologies for typos as commuting 0.69% to 0.72% so 0.03% increase but down from 0.74% on 19th Nov.

Didn't expect Sandbar to retain or increase their shorts. However they have increased (marginally) from 0.69% to 0.74% so 0/03%. It is still down from 19th Nov where it was 0.74%. Still relaxed as think by end of Dec it is still going to be 50+
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B23K0M20/

Will not. Laborp paid $2.40 per share for Sequenom back in 2017 so is a competitor and won't give oxygen

@Know0 would agree with the statement that the RNS probably indicates that the deal is at the due diligence stage. For how long, who knows, but I suspect the end game to come sooner rather than later. I think the next few days will be quite interesting to see how the shorts positions change further and whether there's any holding RNS as I too suspect that IIs must be adding in the background.

This is starting to get to be an incredibly trying share to own with the Cenkos note suggesting fair value of 84p vs the weak sp.

What is noticeable is the background buy of clean blocks suggesting a position is being taken in advance of news. An example being the £78.19k spread bet of 200,000 shares taken on Friday. Problem is that these spread bets and ordinary trades seem to be designed to not affect the sp slide.

Getting a bit tedious the constant testing of wet hands. Market was red this morning so non-specific sentiment drop due to macro worries. I suspect towards the FTSE will be Pfizer vaccine test being approved by Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) by the end of next week or early the week. I think eats circulated a few scenarios with the most likely one being that it could "potentially" drop to 40.75p. These are all hypothetical scenarios. As per the conversations over the weekend if you believe a deal will happen over and above the debt obligations then share will re-rate.

Has to be said, some not so intelligent and explicit fear mongering by those who are looking to engineer a better re-entry which is adding to the tedium.

Bad news for taxpayer as chances are the NHS will still have to pay for the sequencers and DNA extraction kits. One has to ask what type of validation and due diligence is being done before these mega contracts are agreed on the operational requirements and processing times. PHE looks to be prioritising speed and automation over accuracy. This could benefit the new novel alternatives to PCR or alternatively newer PCR test like the new Clarigene test in development. For YGEN to benefit it would have to demonstrate interop ability with the purchased machines so these costs can be salvaged. But also more streamlined automation and workflow. An example of the test PHE now wants is GDR's SARS-CoV-2 Point of Care Kit (STILL IN DESIGN) which will detect SARS-CoV-2 directly from a saliva sample without the need to extract viral RNA. This allows for rapid testing to be performed while a patient is present. and takes approximately 15 minutes, with fully negative samples taking just over 20 minutes to resolve, without temperature considerations.

There was that webinar with Bhavika Patel and Dr Paul Docherty where they stated that they were in discussions with the moon-shot programme at both the National and Local level and expected to announce something soon. From memory that was 1.5 months ago lol. To be fair I think there's been some distraction as they're directors of the Genome Group and have been concentrating on the sale of the Genome Group to Concepta Group. The co-founders, Bhavika Patel, Dr Greg Fitzgibbon, Jane Kelly and Dr Paul Docherty will join Concepta’s Scientific Advisory Board, and Jane Kelly, Operations Director at The Genome Store will become an employee at Concepta following a sale involving £0.28m payable in shares, and a deferred consideration of up to £0.24m. Been a bit of a windfall last 2 years for some.

We should hear that the Pfizer vaccine test being approved by Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) by the end of next week or early the week after next. Potentially the vaccine roll-out to happen shortly afterwards to front-line staff and the vulnerable. As covered at length in the press and here the need for testing will probably last well into 2021/22. I however am starting to think that Covid will never go away and just an inherent danger like AIDS. With the Pfizer two-dose vaccine costing $40 and more than 50% of the world's population living under $10 per day, it is likely that many Middle and Emerging economies will simply not be able to afford to give the vaccine to their population and some sort of control at airports will need to be in place for a generation.

Point 3 does ask the question why confirm exclusive talks Montagu rather than just leaving the door open for revised offers from equity investors Bain Capital and TPG. The amount of speculation over the weekend does seem to suggest some level of co-ordination, or could just could be lazy journalism recycling the same story. Obviously Capita's original ask of up to £700m was an opening salvo to get the best deal possible. So the question is what the market reasonably expects as a sale price. Aside from deep disappointments, a sale would remove financial uncertainty and avoid a further rights issue and be seen as positive. With 955,676 shares buy reported after hours there's definitely others who are confident of an acceptable sale going forward earlier, rather than later. There'll obviously be some who will like the retrace to go further, especially those who've profit taken from buying in at lower levels, however some support shown at these levels. GLA

Point still stands. If the sale was going to be delayed till after Brexit transition period end date, or come in materially below expectations of £500 to £700m you would expect new shorts to have been taken this week and into next.

My understanding is that Ardevora Asset Management LLP and Citadel Advisors LLC have closed their shorts with the remaining shorter (Sandbar) reducing their short by a 1/3 to 0.69%. The RNS on Friday I suspect was to head off the weekend press as there was no media speculation beforehand. You would have suspected with the shorts closing it suggests that a deal is more likely to come sooner rather than later and the media speculation is brinksmanship in public.

why would you even bother trying to understand a chart from someone who has an obvious agenda to lower the share price to reduce there average or get a more advantageous entry?
why pay deference to an anonymous poster rather than focus on the Holdings RNS at these levels, the shorts closing at these levels?

@Bakky, certainly not where we were expecting to be at 2 years+ on from litigation resolution, even making apologies for the "3-5 years" comment from LR, and not the outcome LTHs were holding onto. Then again revenue and market capitalisation has doubled so not all bad. Just returns back to the same conundrum where one has to add to keep the same investment goals without being paid by the Company and not knowing full game plan. Hopefully there'll be some cheer coming soon where we can avoid these difficult choices and embarrassing acknowledgements. All the best. ..Funny thing you had me thinking you were CooperD earlier in the morning lol

@Bakky even if you ignore the fact that YGEN has limited testing capacity, anyone who has tendered for a Government procurement contract will know it takes months to hear back. Perhaps weeks because of the pandemic but certainly there is no chance that you can supply a tender in early Dec and hear back before the Xmas closed period. What is more realistic is that we might get the Half Year results in mid-to-end Dec. I am not expecting us to get any Notice of them this year as in the past, hopefully wrong but as it is not come yet, why bother. Fact that they have not given Notice suggests they are awaiting for other news to accompany results and so this as always will be as late as possible.

Incidentally to be fair to @pacman he has not said that YGEN is a poor investment choice, rather he has tried to clarify the investment proposition which has fundamentally changed for LTHs who had held through the legal challenges. The legal writ came when the sp reached 32p. It is realistic that with the strategy of acquisitive growth there will be further share dilution which the BoD will partake in with their salaries. The number of trades and number of shares is a misleading indicator as it is more Free Float that determines the sp movement. By not aiding the PR they are adding to the Free Float as insiders (like Steven Myers) can only buy so much. If you are a LTH hoping after all the time for a final pay out this will act as a share drag. That is fine if you have the patience and money to do as the BoD and add to your holdings as if this was like a pensioner's Premium Bond. However for me that is the investment decision now whether to have the funds locked-in, and even add, for a limited TO offer much, much below the expectations current and LThs shareholders have. Otherwise holders have the to choose to sell at minimal profit or materialise losses after all this time, in order to take the opportunities available in the wider market. Not a bad investment and a very safe low-risk one in the current market however not one that some had subscribed to hence some frustrations expressed. Good thing is that none of the posts here, positive or negative, and numerate in the case of some posters, will make a difference to the sp.

no

With the sp in a holding pattern at the mid-40s range with such a tight spread I suspect that there's a backroom transfer of shares going on and we may see a further Holdings RNS next week. Better switch off for the weekend as might go blind. All good.

There does seem to be a buyer out there buying in 50k tranches to not affect the sp.

Drift seems overdone and reflects more some profit taking with wider market uncertainty as to which companies will be affected by protracted tier restrictions. Allows however for some recycling of PIs for the next leg. This is still in recovery mode with a current market capitalisation of £214m despite revenue of last year FY20 being £111.10m and a 52 week high of 134p.

The Company will publish its unaudited half year results for the period ended 31 October 2020 on Tuesday 15 December 2020.

Vic Darvey, CEO, commented on 2 November 2020 that "We expect to deliver a pleasing profit performance in the first half".
This follows the 2nd Nov update of 8% increase in instructions for the six month period to 35,387 (H1 FY20: 32,850), and a 20% increase for the 5 months since June. So the H1 FY21 is better than H1 FY20 despite Covid. Adjusted EBITDA1 for the first half is expected to be comfortably ahead of the Company consensus for the full year of £3.5m with cash headroom in October in excess of £75m (15 July 2020: £66m including proceeds of £35m from the sale of the Canadian business). To put this in perspective the Current Assets for FY20 was £31M. So Covid has certainly given them a good kick up backside to strengthen their balance sheet.