Member Info for notaflipper

Wouldn't the first thing which the Company would do is bring forward the date of releasing the CPR? Probably by now it is already done and could even be released this week? Depending on the merit it would then help to diffuse some of the tension. As part of this you would then see an accompanying placeholder text to then acknowledge the frustrations and then promise to re-engage. It could be that the reluctance to engage maybe driven till the CPR is published. Cannot see any Directors resigning.
Bought heavily last week and down already but think this will be higher come end of March. Hopefully this year lol Exciting share

On 8 January 2021, the Fund shared its updated technical report with Hurricane. This stated why the Fund and its consultants believe that the board of Hurricane does not seem to be focusing on the upside potential of the fractured basement play within Hurricane's licences. The Fund sought an explanation as to why Hurricane was not keen to tie back the existing Lincoln Crestal well which was reported to have tested at a sustained commercial rate. Production from Lincoln could significantly increase overall output with minimal pressure drawdown at Lancaster. The Fund believes that the Lancaster basement play may contain resources greatly in excess of the pool currently being developed by the Lancaster EPS...The Fund has found the board of Hurricane to be both indecisive and obstructive. Therefore, it now intends to take appropriate action in order to maximise Hurricane's potential...A trading update in January 2021 highlighted how cash generation has recently improved as a result of the recovery in the oil price, with the company generating $19 million in the month of December 2020 alone, taking cash to $106 million. The Fund notes that the price of Brent crude has recently continued its strong recovery, from $38 per barrel in October 2020 to more than $60 a barrel. The Fund believes that in 2021, this increase alone should add more than $100 million in cash to Hurricane. It should also significantly increase the value of Hurricane's other, hitherto, untapped resources if this level is maintained.

SS&C reported revenues of $3.4 billion in 2018. So it would be interesting to know what the sale price was? Hopefully this will be confirmed in an RNS before the 17th. Article kindly circulated by "Gra2amin" suggests that it employed in 2018 more than 22,000 people across 35 countries. So this, plus the potential sale of Axelos before the 17th should mean a pretty decent set of results in the current climate.

Two more weeks of this commentary it seems lol

If in doubt remind yourself of the Grant of Options to the Chief Transformation Officer, Chief Restructuring Officer and Chief Risk Officer at 25p that needs to be achieved by 2024. Drop is to allow a buy order to be filled in my opinion before next leg up. GLA

"I have now got my sales, as buys"= Perhaps my misreading but suggests you have an accompanying Short position to you Long and will be putting in a "buy" when you want to close your short? Could be sensible, really depends on the potential swing and spread.
Should hear more about Axelos sale before 17th hopefully. An impatient 2 more weeks to go. GLA

17th March is the confirmed date?

Have to play it straight.
Yes the CFO did a shi55ty move but Patrick Butcher has since November 2020 resigned from his position as Chief Financial Officer (CFO). To be fair Lewis is a pretty impressive turnaround CEO in what he's achieved in a short time.

Added as well. Suspect we will finish between 3.3p to 3.5p range today. GLA.

Didn't the December TU use an annual weighted average oil price of $35/bbl (or a $7/bbl discount to Dated Brent incl. transportation costs)? Hopefully this should provide headroom for daily trading fluctuations?

Standard monthly RNS that is supplied. If you look at past RNS you will see they do this each month to comply with the FCA's Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. It is just to confirm the number of ordinary shares.
Basically nothing has changed, so same shares in circulation, so no news.
Wait till Results still marches on though seems like sp wants to try for 50p again.

Some pretty chunky trades going through has to be said yet sp pretty static all things considered?
mmmmm
Any thoughts?

I am confused about the date of the Financial results as well. At present, formally, nothing has been announced and no notice given. Last year they were announced on the 05th March and in 2019 on the 15th March. Though there have been some informal discussions re.17th March, or between 2nd to 3rd week of March, these discussions are informal. No discredit to those involved but would hope that IR wasn't releasing this date on an informal basis to insiders. Do hope it is soon however as clearly market is awaiting for them for the fireworks to begin here. GLA

Some chaps are going to get spiked this morning for sure.

Thanks all for your thoughts. Bit suprised with the views that the % of potential share dilution could be higher than 50%. Yikes. I would have put the downside risk here as much less with the net free cash flow from last TU and the headroom from the rising price of oil from the past average weighted price. Seems a bit excessive to cover circa $60m development costs but I guess that's why market hasn't rushed in as per TLW and just waiting till uncertainty all over.
Cheers for your thoughts. GLA in interesting month few weeks

I have taken a Long position here and looking to add through March with greater certainty.
Oil stocks are not my field but my understanding is that the Competent Person's Report (CPR) covering the Company's West of Shetland assets should be delivered by the end of the first quarter in 2021 from ERC Equipoise Limited as its reserves auditor. This should confirm Lancaster reserves where the development costs are currently estimated at c.$60 million where a sanction decision is also expected early in the first quarter of 2021 and securing a suitable rig and equipment.

Apologies to BB but some newbie questions:
1) With year-end net free cash of $106 million (vs $87 million at 30 November 2020) what is the risk of dilution (% of shares in circulation) here if HUR decide to self-fund the c.$60 million Lancaster development costs
2) HUR realised revenue of $179 million from production: 5.1 MMbbls (average of 13,900 bopd) at an an annual weighted average oil price of $35/bbl . So with oil production for the period 1 September 2020 to 31 December 2020 averaging 12,500 bopd, how much do we think the production will increase within the guidance range of 12,000 - 14,000 bopd at what would be a reasonable average oil price and resulting revenue?
3) With the major risk being the restructuring and/or partial equitisation of the convertible bonds, when do we expect and update or resolution to this uncertainty?

Cheers and thanks for the patience in answering the Q's as oil stocks is not my field and have always had bad luck. Hopefully this is not a bad omen for the BB here. Looks like a lot of potential news here in the next few weeks so GLA

Took advantage of the slip back to add here again in advance of results. Still holding all. Will be expecting further news next week on the sale of Axelos. Good luck for results all.

Passenger capacity in quarter 4 was 26.6 per cent of 2019 and for the full year was 33.5 per cent of 2019. Current passenger capacity plans for quarter 1, 2021 are for around 20 per cent of 2019 capacity.
As mentioned recovery only to begin in Q2.
If you look at cargo only flights these are also coming down from Q3 (circa 1100) to Q4 (circa 900).
Main worry will be if further financing is required with end of furlough period and what will happen on pensions.

IATA raised its forecast for total airline cash burn for 2021 to between $75 billion and $95 billion, up from the $48 billion it had forecast in December with Britain's Heathrow Airport plunging to a 2 billion pound loss in 2020. Hence Q4 results tomorrow will be inevitably more negative than expected. Better strategy would have to wait till tomorrow . Think Blue is right that the recovery from this morning is to rinse and repeat to sucker in more PIs

Have to bear in mind that next week Chancellor will give some bleak numbers which will be a shock to the recovery as well. Expecting drop to previous support level of 170 after Q4 results which will show cash burn increase and recovery only beginning in earnest by Q2 as restrictions to deal with variants will act as a drag over Q1.