Member Info for notaflipper

am not sure what value some of these postings are expected to deliver. My understanding of the general undercurrent here is that smaller PIs have progressively been replaced by purchases by Directors (notably Bill Chang), Steve Myers and Thermo Fisher. This share accumulation (circa 40% from memory) should be a source of confidence for PIs in addition to the growing commercial strength reducing the risk of future funding as well as a pipeline of new products. The sp has suffered a bit in the last week mainly due to the wider macro uncertainties within the UK which was unavoidable but much largely understated here than other stocks which is another good sign. I’m expecting with the growing macro uncertainty and strengthening of sterling there’ll be more volume and so we should quickly recover to 14p in the next few weeks, which seems to be the confidence test, which should be secured on this third attempt.

Looks like a roll-over to me of a spread.

I believe that the report does specifically mention YourGene..

"The IONA test is expected to witness a robust CAGR of 22.12% and 24.26% in terms of revenue and volume respectively during the forecast period (2018 - 2028). Further, the NIPT market for Asia-Pacific is anticipated to witness remarkable growth, owing to the increasing prevalence of Down syndrome and increasing adoption of prenatal testing."

This should mean that at least by next year the IONA test alone will have more than 100k test volume which puts the current broker estimates to shame. One also has to consider the expected products in oncology and reproductive health plus the Illumina NiPT patent to be announced in the near term.

I always find large trades at the mid price interesting. They happened a lot at the 6.5p range upwards. Basically indicates a background trade agreed at a price not to affect the SP. Hopefully that indicates a bounce in the coming weeks but let's see. Hopefully TW was being a bit cautious on timescales and estimates to hedge against a serial false start here and we'll have some good cheer in March

Good luck all LTHs

It seems ironic that with each new positive news development whether increase in broker rating, new product extensions, better net debt position etc that the share price slips back. I have to agree with jscsc that the MMs seem to be having their way with swing traders from the last few weeks who seem to be a fickle it has to be said. As mentioned expecting further news before trading update and would also agree there seems to be some background buying interest

As mentioned before this is starting to look a bit silly even discounting past history and macro worries. On the latter the risks have already been addressed through Readiness plans alluded in Interims. So given that sales forecasts, break-even date, net debt/cash positions etc have only improved in the last couple of weeks the slip back is looking overdone. Hopefully 11.5p is at or near the bottom and we can move on to sunnier times from there.

I would agree that I am expecting more news before the Year End Trading Update. Hopefully TW has called it right for once

From an intra-day in the mid-14s when the debt restructuring news broke to have lost close to 20% thereafter seems a bit overdone even discounting the macro-headwinds and natural pull-back. It is a bit idiosyncratic that with every improvement in forecasts the result on the share price has the opposite effect to that hoped.
The latest Hardman report underlines an EV of £60m-£120m which should command a higher SP with YGEN looking set to become EBITDA-positive in 2020 and profitable in 2021. It caveated that the company has flexibility regarding the timing of any future financing which should give some reassurance that any funding would be in the mid-term and at a higher sp than today. The revised Hardman report was necessary as the initial 19th Feb report did s, published on 19 February not reflect the scale of the savings in SG&A, with the company is expecting to make even greater savings than we had anticipated in fiscal 2020.So on the 3 December 2018 YEGN in its interim statement for fiscal 2019 stated “…further £1m annualised cost reduction being implemented" was not reflected meaning that the initial Hardman was more negative than need be. The revised Hardman forecast shows that net debt position at the end of fiscal 2020 has reduced from -£1.5m to -£1.0m. For those that fear further dilution this should provide some perspective on the scale of future financing needs which should be caveated that changes in growth plans and sales forecasts could change this requirement which the revised Hardman report said was also likely. For a company whose fiscal 2019 forecasts are based on a 75% increase in the number of tests sold/performed, plus a major cost saving exercise underway combined with broader product diversification (and two global multi-billion dollar companies on-board) the current trend is starting to look a bit odd.
All the best to all LTHs

I would say the significance of today's RNS from Hardman is that there is a slightly more positive outlook from them than Finncap.

For example Finncap suggest £8.5m in 2019E, £11.9m in 2020E and £15m in 2021E

Whereas Hardman suggest £8.68m in 2019E, £12m in 2020E and £15.5m in 2021E

Both suggest new products in the coming year (reprodutive health, oncology and IONA extention on new platforms).

The BoD seem keen to get Finals out of the way and will do so in July 2019 vs the traditional awaiting the end of September.

Both agree that YGEN looks set to become profitable and cash-generative in fiscal 2021.

Both predict EV/sales multiple in the range 5.0x-10.0x for the forecast period. This implies an EV in the range £60m-£120m underlining a sp of circa 18p+.

Following the debt/warrant restructuring, YGEN is forecast to end fiscal 2019 with net cash of ca.£1.5m. So I am NOT expecting any capital financing before Year End and after a positive Year End trading update. Expect also monthly cashburn forecast to fall to £185k so expecting some further BoD departures.

CE-IVD certification in Europe for the Illumina-compatible IONA test to be expected before May 2019.

For me the cash injection of £3.8m reducing TF loans outstanding plus TF writing-off the remaining £12.7m loans and accrued interest is a vindication of LTHs continued faith these last few years. The reduction in liabilities by c.£13.0m reduces cash-raising pressures and also means that any further financing would be on a substantially higher sp to that of today. More importantly we should be expecting more product news shortly in time for Year End update and much rapid growth duing TF's 3-year period of exclusivity for Yourgene’s NIPT products in Southeast Asia. That Life Technologies retain its remaining tranches of warrants over 54,332,541 ordinary shares in the Company with a weighted average exercise price of 16.6 pence per ordinary share essentiually creates a new floor which I suspect we will rise to shortly. Significant point not mentioned is that Yourgene has the ability to force conversion or cancellation of these warrants, at Life Technologies' preference, in the event that the share price sustains a level of more than 50 per cent above the exercise price for each tranche. This suggests an eventual TO above 32p and an easy route to pay the remaining contingent liability of £6.5 million upon exercise. Would be surprised if there was not more news to follow (either Product, Contract or II holdings) but let's see.

Although I think Cottoner tried to share the link I am not sure how many people have read the full Fincap report. Some extracts below:

Implications
Resolution of this handbrake to growth will enable management to give their full attention to the strategic priorities for growth:
?a) Diversify product offering into gene analysis by developing and commercialising genetic products and services. Yourgene already offers a range of gene analysis services to the Asian market and is already contracted to the Taiwan Biobank 10-year project to provide whole genome, exon and targeted sequencing services.
?b) Drive worldwide sales of NIPT products and services by targeting further expansion through direct and key distribution channels. Targeted markets include China, North America, Brazil and Australasia.
Leverage its technical and regulatory expertise, as demonstrated by bringing the first CE-market IVD NIPT product to market, and partnerships to bring additional genetic tests to its current and expanding customer base for example:
?c) Pre-implantation genetic screening (PGS) – a technique for testing whether embryos have any problems with their chromosomes, which is thought to be the most common reason why IVF treatment fails.
?d) Rhesus disease screens in which DNA from the unborn baby, found in the mother's blood, can be tested to determine if the foetus is at risk from the mother’s antibodies (when the mother’s blood is rhesus negative and the foetus is rhesus positive), which can destroy the baby’s red blood cells, causing jaundice, anaemia, miscarriage or still-birth.
?e) BRAC1 screens to pre-determine if a foetus is at risk of inheriting an altered (mutated) BRCA1 gene, which has been shown to increase a woman's chance of developing breast cancer and ovarian cancer.
?f) Support diagnostic majors and bioinformatics specialists with in vitro diagnostic product contract development partnerships such as QIAGEN, BioRad or Danaher, all of whom Yourgene has had discussions with.

Forecast changes
We have made the following changes to our forecasts to reflect the agreement with Thermo Fisher and the accounting treatment of loan write-off in FY 2019:
? Adjusted EBITDA remains unchanged in all periods.
? We expect there to be a net financial credit of c.£9.0m, the calculation of which is highlighted in Figure 3. The current loan balance and accrued interest is currently c.£16.5m. Less the proceeds from the exercise of warrants, this leaves the outstanding loan of £12.7m, which is being written off. Less the £0.9m warrant reserve released straight to retained profit on the Balance Sheet, the £3.2m remaining warrant reserve plus adding back c.£0.4m of accretion charges, which are booked through the P&L, leaves an exceptional net financial credit of c.£9.0m in FY 2019. The net financial charges in subsequent years are eliminated because of the loan write-off, resulting in a c.£1.6m and £1.7m benefit to FY 2020 and FY 2021, respectively

It is good to see that despite the bearish market and wider economic uncertainty that YGEN has confounded all expectations and is now on path to achieving its broker's 16p target which implies CY 2020 EV/Sales of 4.9x. There has been much bafflement on the various BBs why and the references to Half Year results and recent product developments (Sage 32 plex launch and oncology service) have been known for some time and already priced in with differing results. The Sage 32 plex launch important as it protect the profit margin once Illumina licensing fees become payable with the launch of the Illumina NIPT CE-IVD in 2020 and the oncology service adding circa £1m sales. So given that all of this has been known how has the sp risen from 6.4p in early Dec to reaching an intra-day high over 14p just one month after with little news?

It is clear from the trading patterns since December there has been a background buyer which has been the major driving force behind the SP rise inflated only to a small degree as of yet by swing day traders going with the momentum. It has to be said it is a shame to see TLHs selling out into this rise after achieving break-even but given the narrative understandable.

That the SP has gone easily past the last placing price would indicate a leak of potentially either (a) deal with TMO for exercising its warrants - combined potentially with debt relief; (b) some other TMO share purchase arrangement; (c) a new significant product development like the new Illumina CE-IVD launch whose patent was to be expected within 6-months of Illumina settlement; (d) expectation of break-even in Full-Year results which means additional £3m+ revenue achieved or (e) a wider NIPT implementation e.g. via NHS.

That this quarter will have marked economic uncertainty yet still TW expects a sustained price rise for the full quarter suggests signincant news which will spur further rises compared to past peformance.

The TMO debt relief deal expected by AGM, then Half Year results, is significantly late. If it is expected now then with the sp holding above 13p (with signicant purchases over 14p) suggests that the TMO exercise price should be circa 15p. for its Dec 2015 20,325,204 warrants @ 24.6 with the following exercised along the way:

Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77

Otherwise should this not be able to be negotiated with YGEN then it would raise speculation whether the further market (and share) expansion is still viable or whether TMO would be pushing for a distressed sale as doing the deal proposed would just free the BoD to pursue a growth plan that would involve a higher TO price involving a price war with ILMN following the new NIPT CE-IVD launch. Looking positive and hopefully there will be a few LTHs at the finish line.

It is somewhat strange for so much discussion to be made on a Company (VIY) which has not existed since 2014 on this BB rather than on the expectations for which we continue to hold. The only reason I can imagine for this continued reference to this past is that any long term holders of NIPT from 2015 have since sold out at significant losses on false back-room promises but it is entertaining to hear of doddering LTH of VIY mistakenly typing the wrong TDIM here and finding this BB only to post some passing news reference on another stock or a current Director of another Company.

You would have to refer to other posters here for company privileged information, I think AR is doing another UK Investor Forum at PwC in the City of London on the 21st January . Given his past expectations in his last presentation to PIs you would suspect some (very) direct questions from PIs at this session, PIs here should look at what happened to Sequenom, who had more cash, who had to sell in a distressed sell scenario after their IP loss.The more longer the expected deal is not delivered then the more likely another agreement is being negotiated as an alternative. For now the company is continuing to grow.The Interims which showed a 73% increase in test volumes in the six months to 30 September 2018 versus the same period last year. As mentioned the technical floor is 24.6p for the high water mark for the warrants to be cleared. What is noticeable here is that the there has been a distinct lack of publicity accompanying the Company relaunch despite that this would be advantageous in theory have secured a better exercisable price in theory. On this front I am baffled on the wasted effort on the TDIM change. Given the Finals and Interims I don't think the BoD will be looking to reissue the same message in their Year End Trading Update in May. As explained it would not be advantageous for any TO to await the launch of the ILMN CE-IVD.

It is very strange that there has been little reference to the broker's note issued yesterday which reiterated the 16p target which implies CY 2020 EV/Sales of 4.9x; justified in our view given the strong revenue momentum and clear progress towards profitability. Yesterday's new product development will be particularly attractive to high-volume, developing NIPT markets such as India and Asia. It's main significance for Investors is that it ensures that Yourgene can maintain gross margins despite the Illumina licence fees that will be paid following the resolution of its IP dispute.

The 50p mentioned on the BB in the past was referencing the Director's 50p options target. I suspect some VIY holders here close to the company still hope for the 50p options though these last few months should have corrected this flawed view. The 24p referenced was to reflect the warrants technical floor which would have to be cleared by a third party (or TMO) in the event of a TO.

The reason for the hovering around the 10p mark is that this reflects the last placing price. As mentioned TMO have the following warrants at the following exercisable prices:
Dec-15 20,325,204 @ 24.6
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77

The negotiations underway with TMO are what the exercisable price are and which warrants will be exercised and the debt relief on offer. Given the buying pressure in this range I suspect that the exercisable price would be above this range despite the current sp price. Deal was targeted for company relaunch on 7th November with revised broker rating following for new TDIM change. The back-stop was Interims. Now in the New Year you would hope the deal is imminent. Should this not be able to be negotiated with YGEN then it would raise speculation whether the further market (and share) expansion is still viable or whether TMO would be pushing for a distressed sale as doing the deal proposed would just free the BoD to pursue a growth plan that would involve a higher TO price involving a price war with ILMN following the new NIPT CE-IVD,

Given the insider trading which accompanied the legal settlement the market reaction is understandable however I would be surprised if this was the main event that explained the recent buying pressure especially given the CEO's recent trips to the US.

Separately, though not expected this month, you should be hearing about the patent being lodged for Illumina's CE-IVD as well as new product launches in oncology and reproductive health.

It is not good but PIs need to also look at the trades happening and the number of trades happening at the mid-point so not to affect the sp. So although there have been few chunky buys or sales in last week sp has been fairly stable given the wider macro news. Was a bit surprised with the drop to 6.5 due to May's confidence vote last week and sold 3 lots of 50k shares to a private buyer via the broker. Each time would push for a slight discount. Twice we settled at the mid and once negotiated a buy at a higher price. Whether they're still at it, who knows but looking at the size of trades taking place I don't think they're going through open market as there probably would be more a daily swing.

Thomas its quite obvious we are at or around the bottom hence those with short positions will be trying to maximise their positions as much as they can. The sp went down to 4p (from memory) after the High Court loss so it puts the discount on the current sp into position especially given the Directors purchase at the placing of 10p. Unfortunately though it has been an easy play for the traders and a gift from the BoD hence some previous LTHs have also gotten on the act as you can see. Some of the concerns on growth have also been addressed by the Interims which showed a 73% increase in test volumes in the six months to 30 September 2018 versus the same period last year. Ultimately though this is a repeat of the Finals which saw a oversubscribed placing of 10p following so in time the sp will trend back to this and some positions will turn from short to long to repeat in the future I am sure. Key thing will be the TMO deal and the nature of the deal secured and the exercise price.

Your right. It is not in their advantage. What would be to TMO's advantage is buy YGEN in its distressed state as doing the deal proposed would just free the BoD to pursue a growth plan that would involve a higher TO price involving a price war with ILMN, However let's wait for company update. As before the drop here was expected, the eventual reversal will also come I am sure in time

Bakky unfortunately for people with obvious shorts this is an easy target whilst news blackout is in effect till TMO news released. They should just get on with it ffs. Funding secured till year end and potential placing is for mergers and acquisitions. SP is a disgrace now post litigation. Completely overdone.

The sp has just gone back to where it was on Thursday on the back of volume that is consistent with PIs selling after the fact that's all. Some big trades but overall small volume (circa 600k) with potential buyers still on the side lines waiting for things to settle and for news issuance. So basically a bounce along the bottom which should see 7p the floor but let's see. Would be difficult to understand IIs selling at the 2nd iteration of a report when they could have sold @ a higher sp during the last two months.

There is some irony to our position that the BoD who freaked out at a placing price of 7p in September have through their mismanagement (e.g. issuing of Finals late through to no news flow for company relaunch) have gotten us to that same position - and yes painful too for an extended period of time. However again noticeably no Holdings RNS showing any selling by IIs despite them suffering lager losses during that time and in fact the opposite with Steve Myers increasing holdings.

Ultimately it comes down to whether you believe the TMO deal (whatever form that deal now takes) will happen or not, this year or not, and what would be the sp afterwards. They have taken their time in getting this deal done since October having discussed it publicly and have strangely not propped up the sp with any news flow which adds to the frustration. But although it is more of a question on how much longer to await for that the current sp seems negative to the current broker target based on known contracts with 80%upside. With IIs and Directors buying @ 10p after the 1st iteration of this report 2 months ago it is difficult to understand the reaction to the reports 2nd iteration though predictable with the same discussions etc.

Last time the sp was shaken to 7.7p and after settling then trended back to the placing price within weeks so this is starting to look a bit overdone given there's been no real news or change