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Given that we are now 15% discounted from the placing pricing which was itself discounted by 19% and nearly 50% off where we were one month ago this is getting bit silly again. Especially when Finncap's report which most long time commenters have questioned also states that cash in bank with current placing will be £1.7m next March. The positive statements of the CEO and Chairman suggest that significant news will be released by AGM for relaunch of company under new branding so current sentiment seems overtly negative.

I mean you have to think why TMO has put in £20m already into this company and Illumina fought a nearly 4 year legal battle with it if sales growth figures are to be believed. So there does seem to be some overtly negative sentiment (deliberate or not) which hopefully the company will be able to revise with their own forecasts and news next week

Cheers. If it makes you feel better there was a few typos in my response.

The 7% revenue growth increase was for 2020E where they increased their sales projections from £11.1m to £11.9m. This compares to upwards of £30m in Hardman's Nov '17 forecast and TW's post placing Bearcast of £18m so pretty pessismitic for reasons given. Also a huge variance between the revenue forecasts and impact of litigation. So if the litigation has consistently been knocking up to 50% off targets how can its lifting only yield 7% more revenue growth with more products and strategic opportunities? The interesting thing is that Finncap actually reduced their sales forecasts post settlement for the current year by 4% from £8.8m to £8.5m. So actually according to them we will be worse off for settling.

Lots if numbers but hopefully people will pause and consider some of the queries raised as to the valuation. I still do expect some further material news by AGM to coincide with the company's relaunch. Then again trading balance is not agreeing with my past opinions.
Bit telling that Premaitha made the link for this a bit difficult to find rather than just issuing it via a RNS like Hardman's but time will tell.

Thanks for the referral.

Finncap suggests that with the additional £3.0m raised in the last placing they estimate that cash at 31 March 2019 will be c.£1.7m with the company becoming EBITDA-positive in FY 2020 with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 28%. They currently have a target price of 16p.

It seems a very cautious revenue growth revision following the litigation settlement where they've only upgraded their estimates for 2021E plus 7% to £15m. This is after the new oncology product and if you see the further new NIPT products in the Annual Report that they're expecting to launch plus new markets. To put in contrast Hardman in their November '17 (pre High Court judgement) report expected 2019E revenues to be £24m. So although I can understand the impairment to this year's revenues it is a bit difficult to understand the future years slow growth with more products especially given TW statements that he expects "to see FY19/20 revenue to ramp up to £18m with break even achieved, and for FY20/21, revenue to be £30m (with Illumina entries and new deals / products / categories) and OP of £6-7m."

It would be good if at the AGM they ironed out all the differing conflicting statements as getting a bit confusing as the AR public comments on growth and funding seem at odds

I think I have lost enough money in the last month so hope nothing I suggest contributes to me feeling any worse but I imagine that an II wouldn't or would have wanted a bigger discount or would have be assured that there would very significant news coming which would mean the future placing would be at a higher price. Of which of these 3 logical options are correct I have a view but this is more of an opinion. I would agree with Florida that a RNS though much preferred would not be strictly required, and not be likely, in the event this future placing was not required. It would allow the BoD to have this as an option.

My understanding from some conversations I have had is that the auditors been quite onerous due to the litigation than us PIs appreciate. The effect has been that it has taken time to get sign-off and statements have been more cautious. If you see it from the perspective of the auditors perspective this is a small UK company in a bitter legal battle with a global, litigious US company. Hence one of the reasons why financial statements have come late, and statements so grave, though as to be said some cynical noise management. Perhaps this is the reason why there had to capital investment provision for Illumina CE-IVD or perhaps this was for R&D.

So it could be that the Going Concern statement reflected this backroom pressure. The Company might itself be frustrated with PIs not appreciating this nor seeing that a global company is being created.

I cannot understand why anyone is surprised the Investor Show was stage managed as that was the whole point I thought to set-up the company for a relaunch under a new brand.

The main issue I had with the Finals was the lack of sales projections. This caused a vacuum which concentrated minds on the negative rather than the commercial opportunities. There would need to be a big step up in sales in 2nd quarter for me to be happy and also a reduction in costs which I think can be achieved post litigation.

As I said I really hope my comments do not contribute towards me feeling any worse as has been a surreal last few weeks to say the least.
ATB to all LTHs (VIY, NIPT)

For me that sounds positive though I can appreciate other posters exasperation here given that this news has already caused havoc with the share price.

I would agree that this is significant material news and we should all challenge Investor Relations to either confirm these informal public statements via a RNS or statement by/at the AGM.

For me the debt for equity (incl. warrants cancellation) is a very significant statement and more so for VIY holders. At the time of the reverse take-over AR et al were exempted from making a formal takeover of VIY as they were classified as being a Concert Party.

Should there be a debt for equity exchange, with the Directors holding over 27% of the equity (please check) and TMO holding circa 20% of warrants I am not sure if the resulting combined holdings would have over 50 per cent. of the Company’s voting share capital combined. I am not sure then if they would have an obligation under Rule 9 to make a mandatory offer to the other Shareholders in that scenario.

That said not feeling great after the last month so probably more wishful thinking on my part.

I agree that the Illumina CE-IVD will also massively increase sales post 2020 as Illumina have 80% of sequencers. So although investors now are just seeing the short terms sales lag the massive increase in market share that has opened up to Premaitha as part of the legal settlement is significant,.

I wasn't able to go to the presentation however did have a very frank series of conversations with BH. Although he appreciated the uncertainty that had been created he also felt that PIs should recognise that despite the commercial headwinds "a globally relevant molecular diagnostics business with significant value opportunities" is being created and that the "litigation has only recently been settled" and that a "broader strategy" was being developed which would be shared with shareholders.

Frustrating response for LTHs and for those awaiting a strong bounce but hopefully should mean that this revised strategy is explained at AGM

http://www.premaitha.com/images/PDFs/Annual_Report_-_March_2018.pdf

Dibs,
I have no idea where to start...Obviously there is a co-ordinated group across the various BBs where you all share the stock material.
The trading results highlighted were known already and not referenced in my post neither did I say that this was material news. What I did say was that the sell-off now is overdone, that there's an anticipation of sales forecasts at/by the AGM and that further news should be expected.
So for example the last time the sp was at this level was in beginning of JULY before (a) new CEOs appointment; (b) new oncology product adding £1m to sales; (c) increase in revenues and (d) Litigation settlement with Illumina. To your team's credit suggesting a 50% drop in sp for a 6% share dilution was warranted has been a success which I am sure you have profited upon. The placing communication lacking sales forecasts has allowed this as it did not provide any context to market growth.
Let's just see what next week brings.

Agreed the announcement of a clear date of 3rd of December or earlier is a sign that Lyn is trying to improve investor communications. The narrative of the last horrible 3 weeks is clear and the placing was badly handled/communicated however the sell-off has been overdone (c. 50% since 19th Sep for a 6% share dilution WTF). In May this year there was a dilution of 30% at c. 45% discount to the current sp (4.5p when sp was 7.5p) and the sp DOUBLED since then. AFTER the legal settlement PIs due to cost management concerns which I still believe can be addressed or at least significantly mitigated within CURRENT trading year have run in opposite direction because of Donal Duck characters.

As previously stated I am hoping for more news in next week as well as trading update by/at AGM. This update should then calm PIs concerns around trading forecasts which will finally include revenue projections from contracts in Middle East, China, India and Brazil. Hopefully this shall mean previous year highs are quickly passed thereon.

ATB to all LTHs (NIPT/VIY)

Thermo Fisher is the world leader in serving science, with revenues of over $18 billion and more than 55,000 employees in 50 countries. Premaitha's IONA and SAGE prenatal screening tests run on Thermo Fisher's DNA sequencing instruments.

It should be noted that Premaitha’s IONA test is the ONLY NIPT, let alone CE-IVD, test that runs on a TMO sequencer as most use Illumina’s. So TMO have a need of their own to secure Premaitha’s future – even at a loss – to protect their sequencer sales.

My understanding (please correct if wrong) in aggregate Thermo Fisher now hold warrants over 95,688,706 ordinary shares, representing circa 20% of the company on a fully diluted basis. These warrants are exercisable at different levels.

My understanding of the TMO Warrants is that the following have been issued.

Date: No of shares @ Executable Price
Dec-15: 20,325,204 @ 24.6
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77

For these my understanding is that TMO paid the following:
- Jul 2017: £2:4m
- Jul 2017: £5:0m
- Mar 2017: £2.0m
- Sep 2016: £4.0m
- Dec 2015: £5.0m

In total £16m. So if they walk away, do not supply further support if needed, or the share price NEVER reaches above 10.7p in next 8 years then these warrants are not exercisable though loans will still have to be repaid.
That’s why when derampers suggest that TMO walk way or not support Premaitha they don’t understand the chessboard.

Also the distressed share price does open the opportunity that a Third-party can make an offer for Premaitha. In this scenario as TMO's support has been instrumental in sales then they would be important to any potential buyer to keep on board. TMO would therefore ask for their floor of their warrants to be covered or would be unhappy to provide further support to a potential third-party buyer this would mean that the ‘technical’ floor would be 24p.
Today was inexplicable with people selling at 7p AFTER a legal settlement which worked towards Premaitha’s strategic benefit (2 billion dollar companies are now vested in Premaitha’s future – not one).

With the company presenting on the 16th in London and the 25th AGM I am hopeful that more news will be issued shortly to correct some of the concerns aired.

apologies typo - 10% of a potentially billion dollar market

Despite the shocking competence of Premaitha IR the current sp is too negative compared to any further potential bad news. The current sp is more than 20% below the placing price which itself was 19% below the sp price at that time (which already had a run on it from 15p).
Seems a bit overdone imo.
Given where the company was when we were previously at this territory (even correcting for the 6% minor share dilution) the sp is too negative. Since then the company has resolved a multi-million dollar litigation to its strategic benefit against a billion dollar company. It has also increased it product range and added £1m to sales. With over 80K sales volumes expected iro this year we should expect Premaitha to have close to 10% of a potentially billion dollar company where strategic interest towards TO has been already shown via warrants at 24p.

They couldn't sell Illumina NGS as they were tied to TMO. With the deal they can sell ILMN in EU with TMOs agreement. The restrictions you still refer to are just for CE-IVD not for NGS which can be sold before ILMN CE-IVD developed

Premaitha are already selling Illumina NGS via YourGene you just need to look at YourGene website but in Asia. The deal allows for this to happen in EU. Expect strategic vision with financial forecasts to be released by AGM

Premaitha are already selling Illumina NGS via YourGene you just need to look at YourGene website but in Asia. The deal allows for this to happen in EU. Expect strategic vision with financial forecasts to be released by AGM

The frustrations are understandable and we have allowed the negativity to air as we know what's coming. So venting is understandable if you receive a half year report on the 29th Dec, a finals after hours and an all too brief RNS after a 3 years litigation on the impact of the settlement. LTHs fail also mention the real reason for the drop in sp from 20p to 10p initially and this was the internal difficulties of Rupert Lyllwood and Animatrix. Yep a lot has gone wrong but we don't make investment choices on the past but on the future. We look at the long game and move on.

Florida is right (that was painful after a painful day) that despite our frustrations with the BoD I was impressed with the deal that the were able to broker with ILMN though not their communication. They have now the option to sell the company as two. They've maintained 2 billion dollar companies as strategic alliances. Opened up territories previously off-limits to them and massively expanded the geographical footprint. Despite the legal challenges the costs given what they could have been have been controlled. The product portfolio has also grown. Should this ever have happened - no. However as the shares in circulation have doubled the last 4 years the current mkt capitalisation is actually twice than the listing price (the product portfolio now 3x) so that comparison should be amended. ILMN didn't have to settle. They could have done what bakky said (god will this pain never end) and litigate at infinitum and destroy the company. That ILMN came to the table early reinforces our USP.

I think the lack of forward looking financial forecasts (due to the litigation) as well as the expectation of break-even has had some impact on sentiment. This will all change by end of month. Regardless the infrastructure is now there, strategic alliances established, products coming on-line as well as the additional revenue.

ALTB to LTHs (NIPT + VIY).

Despite the sp we just need to keep things is perspective...
Mid-to long terms what has not been mentioned is that 2 billion dollar companies now have a stake in this company. TMO have circa 20% on a diluted basis in warrants at 24p. So that's the floor mid to long term in the event of a TO. And as the IONA test is the only CE-IVD test that is designed to works on a TMO sequencer there will be a buyer.

At present a 6% dilution has caused a nearly 40% drop in sp. That is somewhat unnecessary even if we allowed that further cash may be required. The reason why I expect this was unfortunately left to uncertainty is that this funding could come through alternative means rather than equity issue, may not be required if sales improve post settlement and that the company expect further news will mean that this will be done at a much higher price resulting in much less dilution. I still hold that I believe that news should come pre-AGM for some reasons given

The company is now trading below levels than when it had far more uncertainty around royalty payments, legal costs, trading opportunities in US/UK/EU and had few products. This is somewhat incredible and frustrating to say the least. But we keep perspective and also mindful that further news is coming.

P.S. Unfortunately also swing trading is a bit more difficult if your holdings are of any significance.

Hopefully this suggests, in addition to the other reasons given, that there may be further news in the next 2 weeks as the BoD will be wanting to give themselves an easier time given how peeved LTHs are over how things have been managed since the settlement.

Premaitha Health have been trading as YourGene Health outside of EU since the May 2018 RNS where this has already been communicated to shareholders. However the Proxy Form special resolution is asking for shareholders to approve this change formally and introduce the YourGene Health brand, initially outside Europe and Taiwan, as this branding is more internationally applicable and reflects their strategy of broadening the range of products (already 3 ~ potentially 5 by end of year with more to come) they will be offering. Hence suggesting that there will be further explanations of this strategy to shareholders before the AGM on the new CEO's strategic vision.

We all hope to be so for all ourselves Twix

My understanding though is that 02-Jul-15 Barry Kenneth Hextall bought 150,000 @ 20p in addition to the 17-Dec-15
180,736 purchase you reference @ 18.03.

Incidentally I believe he has 5,000,000 options @ 20p but IR can confirm the executable price.

Hopefully now everyone has loaded up, and strapped in, we can continue the uptrend and pass quickly where we dropped off soon.