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The £2M figure I quoted is the additional funding facility from Thermo Fisher HAS ALREADY provided (£2.1m) earlier this year following the High Court loss.

Some of the naysayers should be mindful that Premaitha HAS ALREADY been paying 10% of UK revenues earned from the Hearing date into an escrow facility for the duration of the appeal cycle as a reasonable reserve for potential future damages if the appeal is unsuccessful. SO THERE'S A RESERVE FUND IN PLACE

Premaitha HAS ALREADY paid interim costs to Illumina of an amount in the region of £1.5m. This payment was sitting in escrow till legal settlement so some of the settlement costs will be met via this facility.

Finally the UK market now represents less than 15% of our revenue run rate and overall the Group so frankly the key news of today is the moving of the focus FINALLY to the other 85% to 90% of the business which in exponential growth in Asia etc.

Today is a great day and expect re-rate in coming days.

the court case was against not only Premaitha but TDL laboratory which represents the Harmony test used by Great Ormond hospital. Suspect its them.
This just stops the NHS NIPT test but doesn't stop St George processing NIPT samples for other trusts. So good for Premaitha in interim.

Banaby ~ if you look into the different sequencing technology you will see that the IONA test is the only NIPT test which works best for TMO sequencers. The Dec 2015 Hardman report went into a lot of ddetail about it. So I suspect there's been a backroom nod via TMO

There's no chance with the help that TMO is providing in the unlicensed territories (asia, s. America and middle east) which are the key growth areas that they did not give blessing to the deal behind the scenes. not surprised no mention as they cannot state in the rns otherwise then it shows they are working as a 'concert party' with the Directors which could result in investors questioning why a formal takeover is not undertaken.

we knew a new test would be required - confirmed

from Judge Carr iro licensing fee would be 10% so not expecting anything more than double this for a test which would have to be only launched in 2020

Premaitha full and final settlement of all ongoing UK will be no more than £1m is less than the £2m budgeted

Well done to all who held their nerve over the final hurdle yesterday.
hopefully the swing traders will be able to get back in but that's the problem with swing trading. The problem here is that there's very little stock around

We LTHs know most of the game plan here. More news coming. Wait, wait for that news

Your completely right bakky our expectations have been consistently disappointed. Hence I have deferred to Martin Hall at Hardman who I believe you have expressed some confidence in the past.

Hardman quoted the last set of financial forecasts prior to the High Court loss. So the forecast would not reflect either the impact of the latest contracts nor the headwinds following the court loss.
On page 34 of the November report they quoted £28m for sales for this year 2019E and £10.9 for 2018E.
http://www.hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/mohtnly-newsletters/hardman-monthly-november-2017.pdf

So we know from the 15th May RNS that the unaudited sales for 2018 that sales were £6.2m vs £10m expected but doubled from £3m to £6m. So true to form.

The key for me would be the forecast for 2019E where the final forecast was £28m. So for me I am hoping that the financial forecast for 2019E doubles from £6m to the low-teens which I think given our successive disappointments is still a viable target.

This should hopefully be a conservative target. ATB to all LTHs

Bit melodramatic some of these posts given that we are still up 30%+ this month alone. Happy not to see the notorious Day Traders from yesterday.

PIs didn't buy the shares divested by ORYX International Growth Fund. This was done by a backroom transfer of shares where the identity of buyer is still to be identified.

1 Week to go before Finals ~ expecting revenues to double to low teens at most pessimistic estimate which would justify current market capitalisation irrespective of any alluded further material news.

Taking Barnaby's advice and adding further to substantial holdings here. Daily swings or temporary losses will be a temporary mathematical annoyance soon,

Hi Bakky,
I remember trading points with you in the dark days in November on this topic. Unfortunately I suspect PIs here had have sold at a massive loss then based on some negativity. I hope you took advantage of the drop despite your views.

The dynamics on whether Illumina will settle have not changed since our last exchange. That is, in the absence of any settlement Premaitha can withdraw its appeal and ask for an imposed settlement. Premaitha have already set aside from a past RNS £2million towards this and have the ability to develop a separate CE-IVD test based on Illumina sequencers. There is precedent for this as Illumina struck a similar deal with Centrum Bandan. I say however a separate test as the IONA is primarily geared in underlying technology to operate with TMO sequencers. The European Commission will not rule on the validity of patents but on anti-competitive behaviour hence this is another dimension. The EU's case would be bolstered in the event that Premaitha is forced to cease trading in the UK. This precedent is supported via YourGene, which proudly boasts of being an Illumina partner and NGS supplier on their website.

However who knows. Most PIs here are still LTHs so hopefully they still are taking advantage of the time before news actually breaks to get down their averages and hopefully the news will have a positive effect this time round than past occasions.

Wrt whether the rise is due to some sort of corporate action and/or settlement news or whether a settlement is expected later this year or next year...I come back to confusion I have with why a potential CEO would take an appointment when the company is locked in litigation with a monster like Illumina. You would just be asking for punishing gruel. Also if there was a potential exit strategy why this would not be progressed before Finals and what other reason there could be for a news black-out.

Not sure what the bet was? Hopefully it was something colourful though.

Has been an interesting road to be sure. Thanks for the link. V. Kind. It did make me laugh that TW if he was talking about Premaitha failing to mention he took part in a placing @ 4.5p all the way back in May plus he topped up a million or so shares thereafter so he hardly missed out lol It is a crap shoot as to whether it is Premaitha being referred to but certainly a measure to slap the wrist of someone in the background.

The share price which has now increased by 50% in the last month alone. The thing is much of the sp growth, albeit deserved by fundamentals, was still driven by a background buyer. PIs are still only coming just this last week. I conservatively expect the numbers to have Sales in the mid teens (so doubled 2018 FYEnd of 6.2m) and test volumes over 75k. This should insure a positive p/e and cashflow. That's great news but could not be the sole driver for the background accumulation?

The other thing is that the CEO has been awfully quiet, too much so for a new guy. If there was no exit strategy for the litigation at his appointment it was a pretty bold move on his part in taking on the appointment. As the appeal could easily drag to next Spring. So there surely must be other news and perhaps more than that hypothesised on the BB so far.

Although I am sure we will be surrounded by more and more geniuses in the coming weeks well done on hanging on and not throwing the towel. Who know you could b/e at this rate! Imagine what bakky would say if that happens lol

current sp given where we were in November. Well done to all who kept their nerve and kudos to those who had ammo still left to double-up. There must be a leak of genuine good news this time round to support this rise given the RNS yesterday. So hopefully not a repeat of Dec 2015.

Hopefully some past holders still have this on us on their Watchlist and will get in before any news break to recover past losses. That said it did take be 10x reading itsaduster's post to understand what he was saying.

ATB LTHS (VIY & NIPT).

We all have known there's been a background transfer of shares for some time now and it's potential has been mentioned already on the BB. That the sp has gone up by 1p since the threshold was crossed on the 6th September suggests that there is a background buyer too and no overhang. But without a confirmatory RNS who knows.

Obviously it is worrying whenever you see an institiution top-slice their holdings before any immenent news (has to be a RNS in next 2.5 weeks). However the main issue remains the hiatus of news, its reasoning, when will it end and the communication strategy required to hold the sp if there was a spike. I still think the sp is below the radar for most PIs given the BB communication and trading pattern. So I suspect there's many standing on the sidelines waiting for the litigation resolution still despite the available free float diminishing. There's only few news stories that would support the sp rise we have seen (e.g. [a] litigation success and licensing contract with Illumina; [b] litigation failure and confirmed mitigation plans to depart from UK ~ which given the Brexit bill for pharma companies is where a few may go anyway; [c] confirmed new product launch; [d] sales in Finals in high teens confirming break-even etc; [e] further contract news in South America, Middle East and Asia ~ though sp has flat-lined on past sp news; [f] symbolic value of inclusion on NHS NIPT roll-out ~ training has already been completed so roll-out soon though the BMA is hesitant as per its AGM vote.

Whether any of these potential news stories or others is the driver for the sp rise who knows and what the further impact will be when the news will drop. For me news is now very overdue given the black-out for 3 months. To put it in perspective neither employees, customers, shareholders or partners know whether the company will continue to be in the UK. However despite this uncertainty lasting for 3 months there's been no shortage of Director's Options and discounted share placings RNS.

That frustration aside some of this news will have to drop in the next 2.5 weeks. The BoD will have to continue with a sustained news flow to prevent any slip back so holders now should not sell too soon. Who knows there maybe an end game in the offering much sooner between TMO and Premaitha and this could be the reason for the sp rise. Hopefully so for many LTHs (NIPT and VIY)

Having not received any material market update for nearly three months; no progress update from the new CEO’s appointment in July (save that he secured himself 10m share options) and no updates on litigation progress or potential departure from the UK since March – I am sure many LTHs (NIPT or VIY) feel very impatient and disappointed. So no change there lol. At least we’ve been updated that the BoD have significantly lowered their averages in the interim.

I laugh ironically when I think I got up in the middle of the night when following Eastern Time to check eagerly for a RNS which never came. It’s annoying for any large PI holders as many things are paused in the interim and pressures caused.

That said PIs, and potential PIs, should be aware that an update (Finals Results) is mandatory by the end of September and it should be expected that Sales could conservatively double as Sales should be in the low teens. This should confirm break-even and close to a 10% market share of global NIPT sales. It would be surprising then even if there was no settlement news that the sp would not be in mid-teens firmly by then with a market capitalisation of £60m.

That said LTHs have been disappointed before. However you would have expected that there would be an internal target to target a legal settlement before Finals. I suspect the new CEO would not have joined if a legal resolution was not possible. However news is long overdue now.

In terms of potential scenarios thereafter that’s where it gets confusing. Whether due to the narrative and the NIPT market consolidation that we have seen whether a sale will happen shortly thereafter or whether the Company will go ahead alone with a new product launch etc. I suspect some PIs would like to see the end game sooner rather than later here and worry about further share expansion in the second scenario.

Not long to go now to see. ATB.

I think given the history of false backroom confidences and sp rises which only disappear when the RNS actually drops it is natural to be tepid here. That said I am quite conscious that despite the very significant sp rise since the beginning of the year it is mainly the same old posters on this BB. This plus the trading pattern suggests a backroom accumulation of shares, and potentially a transfer, hence the tight trading range. The history speaks for itself and let's see if it repeats itself. Reassuringly all the spread betting companies are heavily long here which suggests a change of fortune.
Given the November Hardman report which had the last financial forecast (including from the Company) we can conservatively estimate a few figures. Given that revenues were £6.2m in 2018 (2017: £3.1m), with the majority of growth from outside of Europe and test volumes for non-invasive prenatal testing ("NIPT") more than doubled to over 50,000 (2017: 24,500) then it could be conservatively estimated that Sales will be at least in the low-teens for 2019 and test volumes will be over 70,000. This would suggest even despite the share expansion the current market capitalisation is too low.
Remember in addition to this we should be hearing of progress on product expansion collaborations announced as well as new hubs announced in India and Middle East.
The CEO has been incredibly quiet since coming on-board and it will be interesting to see how they manage to keep a sustained run of RNS. However I am sure they will have to. I suspect though that given the fundraising earlier in the year that there willl be no further need for this to muddy the waters again of any further news.

Should be passing 10.3 soon. Has there been a leak?

My understanding from the 15th May 2018 Trading Update was that "Operating costs effectively managed to achieve a breakeven EBITDA run-rate in NIPT" so I took that break-even had been achieved already. Unfortunately the announcement which is significant for a company that was listed only in 2014. That said the BoD suceeded in getting this message completely forgotten by coinciding this announcment with a £2.5m cash call and issuing 55,527,784 new ordinary share at a price of 4.5 pence per share In addition to 10,097,460 shares being issued in lieu of £0.5m of amounts owed principally to directors. But the point is that I was under the impression that break-even had been achieved however 'break-even' as a concept is dependant on your corporate goals and as these rise can be lost again.

In terms of taking it private I think this fear may more driven by Elon Musk and some of the press about Tesla.According to Hardman's June monthly report the Directors had 25% of the shares not including their Options etc. They would have to make an offer for the rest. In the event that this was taken private TMO warrants at 24.6p would still have to be cleared hence 'most' NIPT LTH PIs would not be left 'high and dry' though some NIPT and VIY stalwarts would loose out. So my hypothesis that accepting a low-ball offer from TMO would be a more likely scenario.

I find it hard to get excited about a 10p barrier given the amount of news that we should be hearing even if attempts towards a settlement are not successful especially within the timeframe of Finals by end of September. That other news should see 10p passed easily.

We should be hearing aside from the litigation updates on sales and test volumes. Given that revenues were £6.2m in 2018 (2017: £3.1m), with the majority of growth from outside of Europe and test volumes for non-invasive prenatal testing ("NIPT") more than doubled to over 50,000 (2017: 24,500) then it could be conservatively estimated that Sales will be at least in the low-teens for 2019 and test volumes will be over 70,000. This is conservative to Hardman’s last financial forecast - all the way back in November 2017! Here the estimate for 2019E was 28.11m.
http://www.hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/mohtnly-newsletters/hardman-monthly-november-2017.pdf
In addition to sales coming through from expansion in Middle East and India with sales in Q3 coming from Kenyan Massive Genomics, as well as new partner laboratories in countries like Egypt and Brazil. So I think a low-teens sales estimate is reasonable which would assure Premaitha of over 5% of global NIPT sales ~ however up-to-date global NIPT test volumes for the market as a whole are difficult to obtain so best ask the company directly. The global Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing(NIPT) market is anticipated to grow over US$ 2.5 Billion by 2025 with an impressive double-digit growth rate in the forecast period 2018 – 2025. So a 5%+ share of the NIPT market would put the current circa £40m market valuation in perspective.

Aside from this we should be expecting to hear of progress of new clinical DNA sequencing tests with Coastal Genomics and Abnova.

The key issue is the hiatus of news, its reasoning and when will it end?

To put it in perspective the last market news supplied was in June.

Many LTHs like myself I suspect after nearly 10 months following on from the High Court decision that we waited many years for struggle with mustering any energy. However if we look at the trading pattern over the last few weeks where we have traded within a range of 9.75 to 10.25 or thereabouts there has been some sizeable trades which would suggest an accumulation of a position or large backroom transfer of shares. I hope that means news is expected shortly but who knows.

With the appointment of a new CEO in July there was an expectation for a flurry of news till the Finals. This partly to welcome the new CEO. This hasn’t happened yet. Hopefully however this should still happen in the next few weeks

There's a danger with being too generous to the BoD and sweeping a lot of disappointments under the Illumina writ rug (which is now in its 4th year). My main observation is that Hardman were told July and our newsletter inclusion suspended as a consequence for more individual analysis, so there'd been a delay. Despite not producing a sales forecast in 9 months now the BoD could have provided a financial calendar in the midst of their latest incentivisation. However looking forward I agree with the hypothesis that if a settlement was not realistic the company would have wither withdrawn already from the UK or investigated forced settlement terms. A delay in finals would allow this and other news to be then released and captured in an all encompassing analysis so it could be better for PI's, if it happens. Hopefully the recent buying (by an II?) would suggest that there'll be news in the interim and in the short term. I think we're all well versed on what other news will thereafter happen here in short order. One observation I have of the BB traffic is that this share is still off the horizon for most PI's which should give us a lot of momentum when we really get going. I

ESMA guidelines on new margin rates came into effect today so many rolling today to avoid new margin requirements. I wouldn't worry of large amounts as all are long I believe.

Has it been confirmed by Premaitha IR their Financial Diary and that Finals are in September now?

Jimmy Et al taking a flight so apologies for radio silence. I would hate to switch on my phone in the evening and see a wobbly in the interim. No point taking off in 1st to only come down in steerage due to the large holing. Stay strong but sympathies as also very frustrated.

I'm just giving it till the end of July before I crumble though I'm very frustrated. Up until Hardman's June monthly newsletter the finals were to be bexpect by end of July. So I would be clearly disappointed if this was now different. I would be bit surprised Premaitha removing themselves from the newsletter and only providing finals in September If we're to drift till next spring no point to get options at 7.5p and so on. As everyone else bit frustrated but the only narrative that makes sense is a fresh start with a new CEO and a news flow, product launch and sale thereafter. I'm sure that the litigation has challenges but after 4 years I'm hoping for a near term end but who knows. Complete obstinacy would have resulted in our UK withdrawal or forced settlement via Judge. So there's still hope