Member Info for notaflipper

And indeed I bought @ those levels as I still believe game plan still stands and hoped others had the nerve to as well however TWs still getting a lot flack on this a few days on. Some argue with their inside knowledge the Directors should have paid a premium and improved the Cash position of their company further. Everyone will have different perspectives and hopefully in a few months should the game plan be well advanced these different perspectives will be irrelevant https://disqus.com/home/discussion/*************/premaitha_placing_trading_update_all_good_good160good/

My understanding is that Helium initially bought in at 9m shares in July 2014 with the inital trading as NIPT. They then increased their holdings to have 14m in ealy 2016 and then jumped from 14m to 29m shares in April 2016. Since then they've reduced their holding to circa 22m (this was the figure last week whereas in November they had 7.4% or 24m) and now I think 11m. I don't know their average or their motivations but I would agree that PIs were not the only ones disgusted with the placing. But we are where we are.

No not by that much But some of the others of the concert party who didn't take part of placing

Agreed with the additional shares issued as part of placing some % will seem reduced though they will not have sold any shares. Game plan still stands.

In Hardman's May newsletter it is still saying July hence suggesting some of these milestones could be targeted then however no inside knowledge and all shares bought on open market

I think PI’s are getting hung up on some of the narrative and their emotions. I am sure not one LTH is not disappointed, ****ed off and would love to have a ‘private’ conversation with some members of the BoD. But we have it all to play for in next couple of months so let’s put our game face on. But here’s where we stand: · Operational Break-even achieved · New product launch imminent · Funding ALREADY taken place for either new product launch or legal settlement · No further issue of warrants and massive share dilution to TMO likely · Potential near term settlement with Illumina to cover UK and Europe · Backlog of more contract news imminent after litigation resolution · Potential speculative TO in next year hence why Directors filling their boots Please add further… Most of the above have will take place before Finals in July in all likelihood. So we know the game plan and let’s just see it through to conclusion

As Finals are due in July it would make more sense than not for any new product launch to happen beforehand if it is indeed waiting in the wings.

Well it is all a question about how long you want to run for� The 10% of UK revenues earned from the Hearing date are to act as a potential reserve for potential future damages if the appeal is unsuccessful or as a source of funds for legal settlement. So it is not 10% plus another settlement value. I suspect Premaitha thought that this would be enough to cover all likely damages . If it is not then think we are in the realms of speculation.

It is fair to say that the market was confused with the RNS and the MMs took full advantage. The massive unwarranted drop (on par with the news of the High Court loss news) was an overreaction. I suspect some PIs were closed out so the strategy worked. Sales circa �3m below Hardman�s last forecast was disappointing but expected given High Court loss. Although the news of William Denham was expected, and long outstanding since Bill Chang�s appointment as Chief Scientific, his golden goodbye also should have been. At the time the purchase of YourGene looked very much as a reverse takeover and today�s announcement that Premaitha�s will be repackaged as YourGene health plus the equity split looks that way. I can understand the emotional frustration that the expected news that the litigation conclusion has caused among investors as I share that greatly given that this is now 6 months post the High Court judgement. However given that the market has price in the 10% licensing fee and this assessment has not changed and that talks are on-going then I would have thought this was a more positive development than an arbitrary withdrawal from the UK we were expecting. At worst it seems a controlled exit strategy is being agreed and at best the is potential for some sort of (forced) settlement along the terms of the January ruling. I would agree that the fund raising though an oxymoron when accompanied with news that technical BE had been achieved operationally just proves that BE is a fluid term that is based more on a company�s strategy. So the question is what it means and I can only conclude that this to fund the new product launch or towards the litigation settlement. It is significant that this was funded by the Directors and signals that large-scale issuance of further warrants to TMO is no longer planned. So the Directors have filled their boots � we already know via the High Court papers that they deliberately misled investors both publicly and privately. So they are filling their boots with view of what exit strategy and when? That is the only question.

Apologies for the brevity... 1) 2015 there was a placing of �8m as part of this Premaitha initiated a reagent rental model whereby the equipment needed for the test was provided at reduced cost and this can be recouped through the supply of consumables. Premaitha have as part of this strategy been providing trade financing for TMO sequencers. It would be suprising had Premaitha not provided as part of their initial tendering process, or is now not being put on pressure to provide, indemnification for capital expenditure and refit in the event the FTO proved false 2) The 1st tranch of TMO warrants from memory in Dec 2015 for �5.0m at a price of 24.6p per share (which expire on December 2023) and gave TMO their 7.1% share capital of Premaitha. This was the 1st time that potential product extensions into oncology space was mentioned and then via Hardman also warned that this may lead to additional capital requirements. 3) Francesco Crea appointed as Director of Innovation and New Products at Premaitha for circa 2 years now from memory and despite extensions in the IONA test in throughput (IONA Test was reconfigured to use the new Ion S5 and Ion S5 XL Next-Generation Sequencing Systems for Targeted Sequencing) and a widening of the test (to include sex) with the launch of SAGE there has still been no definitive 'new' products. 4) Jan 2017 the issue of 76.05m new Ordinary shares to the vendors of Yourgene plus $0.5m cash where the justification to shareholders, aside from geographical expansion, was to offer broader menu of NIPT test features and non-NIPT content such as pre-implantation genetic screening (PGS) and oncology (liquid biopsies). I note separate to the points above that William Denham (Premaitha Chief Medical officer) is a US national I cannot sympathise with fighting with Twix though despite us having had many personal and public arguments through the years. I say this as I am in agreement to pretty much most of what he describes will the events going forward. My only deviation with him on time span (though not the events) after the next 3 month window and the narrative arc as to some of the price expectations. That said I would LOVE to be proved wrong, not only because of my ever increasing holdings, but I do think all LTHs should break-even after this and it would be a cracking yarn. My mention of Sequenom is that some investors we know on this BB were caught out as the sale was less than they were privately lead to believe. So best be safe and average down to what is known to be the technical floor.

Although the rise is nice in the absence of any real delivery news we have to discount overtly positive readings into this as this can quick dissipate. In the absence of any meaningful RNS, which has been outstanding since the beginning of this year, makes aspirations of 50p despite our averages and breakeven rates unrealistic. For example... 1) We still do not know what the compensation to existing UK customers will be and value of sunk costs 2) We still are unlikely to get any recoveries from Genoma 3) Expansion into Iran is under threat through the cancellation of Iran-US commercial relaxation 4) We still don't know what will happen to UK staff and UK lab 5) We still don't know what what financing is required for new product, what it is and what happened to past dilution to support new product developments 6) The impact on trade receivables through the litigation loss These are just simple examples of the fundamental questions outstanding, though there are more yet to be answered. The rise is nice but we're are still below where we were pre high court judgement where we were told explicitly there was no risk of loosing outright -but we did - and now think exit from the UK is a success, when it is not. Where still after years of pain there is no new product and no Director purchaes to date. For 6 months now we are still lacking a forward looking forecast of sales, We still hope with our high share equity the positive interpretations are true however Sequenoms rapid sale through a less embarrassing legal loss (and with higher cash reserves) suggest a distressed sell within a 6 month period is the more likely scenario even after a relatively painless UK withdrawal with the only option to increase ones stake to comfortably clear which is what we have seen more of. Best fo luck next week to LTHs

The SAFE test is the IONA test offered by St George so it is significant this is still being offered, albeit maybe temporarily. http://www.thesafetest.co.uk/ I genuinely hope the delay is not too long and that there is a near term legal resolution for LTHs who have been waiting many years for their confidence to be rewarded. Very painful up to and at this point

Cheers for the clarification on tender closing. I agree with the options but if the most likely conclusion is that of a UK withdrawal then I hope the update doesnt take a full another month. The necessary legal steps here would be indemnification of clients, termination / compensation fees, staff relocation etc. All of which I would assume would have to be included within BE calculations which seem to have been done. So hopefully then we should get news sooner than the 31st

There’s some tenders for NIPT implementation as below on the NHS and gives some indication of overall contract worth http://ted.europa.eu/TED/notice/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:5039-2018:TEXT:EN:HTML&WT.mc_id=RSS-Feed&WT.rss_f=Other+Services&WT.rss_a=5039-2018&WT.rss_ev=a As you can see the contracts commence prior to public deployment later in the year so I would have thought that the identity of the providers would be known by now. Although it is most likely that a withdrawal from the UK will be announced followed by BE confirmation I stall cannot understand how much more still needs to be discussed with the new legal team if it is just an exit strategy from the UK and agreeing exit fees and indemnification of existing clients. Unless of course there’s a last minute twist to negotiations. Hopefully it will not be the end of May that we learn both of the legal settlement and the trading update.

Whilst although I am extremely frustrated as everyone else it is better that things are done right some news which should have seen this stock spike has been �ballsed-up� by poor communication. That said I this we are still expecting a RNS shortly. The difference here is that most LTHs who�ve gone through the painful studies of the last years already know what will come here and the eventual end game. We know that B/E either has been achieved or will be by Interims. The fact there has not been a cash call yet probably suggests the former. We know that the end of litigation is imminent with either a last minute settlement of a quick withdrawal from the UK. We know afterwards there will be a quick pump of the stock (new contracts, new product, new partnerships for the new product) in advance of either a sale this year or in order to meet the Director�s 50 options next year. Hold tight and let�s just get to end game soon.

Today's rise has nothing to do with Wales as the number of births with down syndrome are meaningless especially with compared to Brazil and India non-starters. Not withstanding that Premaitha sued NHS Wales in a few years ago which means that if it went to Premaith it would be pretty suprising Although an exit from the UK is the most likely scenario and confirmed from the last RNS the only thing which is surprising is not exploring terms of a forced settlement by the courts with a new legal team. It is more important to me that when the news breaks - whatever it is - that perspective is maintained that UK is a small part of a wider strategy. Settle in whatever way, breakeven, new contracts, new product, pump and sell. That's what the early exiters today missed out on. ATB to LTHs

http://nuffieldbioethics.org/blog/private-nhs-wales-offers-noninvasive-prenatal-testing-year Interesting point on Care Quality Commission. Best of luck to all LTHs next week (NIPT & VIY).

roll-out of NIPT on NHS in England to happen in October

roll-out of NIPT on NHS in England to happen in October

Genuinely sorry to hear of your loss. Hope the service goes well and the narrative to this point wasn't painful for your family. There should be some significant news within the next two weeks however the latest Harman newsletter suggests that the Trading Update may come only in May. That said it could be that the business was just giving itself a back-stop. Regardless of whether it is 2-4 weeks I think the end game here is becoming clear to all LTHs and there will be some news in next two weeks. The time-frame to Finals being released in July 2018 should be key. Being an Islington lad you may be quite interested that our esteemed Justice Carr after Premaitha's appeal recently heard the royalty battle between Boomtown Rats pianist Johnnie Fingers and Bob Geldof over 'I Don't Like Mondays' music rights. ATB for Wednesday