Member Info for notaflipper

My understanding is that the hearing in March will not only cover the ‘321 claim filed in September 2017 but will also cover the counter-application by Premaitha for abuse of legal process. I remain of the view a settlement is required in the near term.

Sorry last sentence got cut-off...So if the sales are north of �9m which given that Hardman forecast �10.9m at the beginning of November (and High Court decision was end of Nov and UK sales were then 20% of sales, but arenow lower %, so max equate to �2.5m. Then it suggests that Sales will be higher than �9m on balance. This when compared to the current market capitalization of �14m based on 4.4p seems undervalued.

The litigation is litigation but needs to be brought to an end. It was 3 years till the First Hearing in July which was long enough when told at worst the verdict would be mixed and we could still trade via an offshore lab. Nearly 4 months post then to get a grip is long enough for me. At present the company is treading water via seeing the '321 hearing and the appeal whilst hoping for something to come out via EU commission. This is just a delay tactic. I think investors, plus existing customers and potential UK/EU suppliers would prefer a resolution in the short term. For me the company should decide whether they can get a settlement brokered privately in the near term. If they cannot they should push for imposed settlement. Waiting months for settlement will just loose potential sales and contracts (NHS etc.) within EU. This strategy also has another cost in that funding via TMO is now being offered to them at a reduced price. In Feb 2018 TMO were issued a warrant over 12,417,368 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 5.775 pence per share. If a settlement was imposed and certainty was restored then these warrants would have been issued at a higher price. Currently TMO have 95,688,706 or 29.79% (based on current share capital) and 22.95% (based on so-enlarged share capital if ALL of the Director Options vest = i.e. we go over 50p). However saying that TMO only have 22.95% (and the current strategy) is reliant on the Company bring a close to the ligation woes, releasing witheld contract news and new products to pump up a sp to 50p in the event of a TO. This sp is not a basketball which means that the more stronger you hit it on the floor the higher it will bounce. That frustration aside I do agree that the losses this week have been excessive given that �1.2m (and 10% of UK revenues) has been put in escrow since January and that funding of �2.1m has been secured against YourGene shares. So for us to be at historical low values as right after the verdict seems overtly negative. Going forward in advance of formal news I am hypothesizing that given the Half Year results in Dec 2018 that: a) Gross profit which was at up 48% of revenues (�1.3m) will slip back a bit because of the Illumina provision but still should be over 35% b) Cash and cash equivalents at 30 September 2017 of �1.6m (not including R&D tax credits of �0.6m) should be higher given that the issue of the Second Tranche of warrants to TMO in Feb 2018 would also have as per the 12 July 2017 RNS meant that a further �1m funding had been released to the Company for meeting certain performance targets. Further to this you would have the �2.1m from TMO loan securitised against YourGene shares. Obviously if break-even has already been achieved (or any of the �1.6 from Sep '17 remain) the Free Cash Flow is higher. c) Sales forecast in Hadman's Nov report of �10.90m should be higher than �9m. So

They were shortlisted for the Medilink Northern Powerhouse Healthcare Business Awards (for the Export category) held on the 7th March 2018. Didn’t win it figures but just underlines it’s just a settlement required in near term. https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/national/awards-celebrate-powerhouse-healthcare-excellence Hopefully news soon

Indeed. However we just need a legal resolution in the near term. Hope you hang in there mate, hopefully not long but who knows. We’re still having a happy meal at the end.

See what you started! Good grief lol How about you Twix? Did you also sell for BitCoin greatness? There's a lot of big LTHs who've whethered a terrible 3 years so hope there fdoing alright. I was thinking of 1.5m as well but cannot imagine institutions which had weathered the verdict would sell now as no point. It could be that the leak a few weeks ago promted someone taking a position which they've now released as frustrated or short being sold. At 4.25 it would have had to be at minimal gain or a loss. Good luck all and all the best to all LTHs

Seems excessively negative as now back in territory right after the November verdict came out when there's arguably more certainty on damages, funding and contracts since then

I was reading your post again and I sympathise with the sentiment as to it is a complete wind-up frankly. Before you invest you check the credentials of the Bod and their past biographies, check if they actually have a product and a Freedom To Operate (FTO), whether they will be able to achieve break-even and could be a potential take-over target at some point down the line. All this was done here so I don�t think any LTHs here were amateurish in their due diligence. Compared to some other AIM companies we actually HAVE a product already, getting new contracts every month or so and break-even will be achieved at worst within the next 6 months but most likely by Financial Year End. The RNS sound like Atlas extracts half of the time. That there�s a major interest is already confirmed with TMO having 30% of the company under warrants already. All this needs is a settlement. Should I Hold, Sell or Buy?�.If you think that the terms as laid out in the Form of Order hearing in the High Court are realistically the settlement that will occur i.e. �1.5m to �2.1m of damages and 10% of UK sales then you should Hold. The settlement will occur eventually and there�s no need to materialise any losses despite the immediate pain. A delay to good news flow till after a settlement is just a delay and frankly there�s a time limit before this news has to be released. One can look at other AIM charts like WSG, OPTI or SCNCL to see the recovery there. Indeed if you think the settlement will be this rough order of magnitude or better than this would be the bottom and one should consolidate. The company has a card of last resort it can play and withdraw its appeal and ask for a imposed settlement. However if you think that settlement terms will be worse, that existing customers will seek damages which will not be covered by the Company�s Professional Indemnity Insurance and that injunctive relief will be granted resulting in the Manchester lab becoming redundant then you should sell. TO BE CLEAR these latter scenarios have already been shown to be UNLIKELY scenarios given the Ariosa verdict in the US, the terms laid out above in the Form of Order Hearing and the continued willingness of the 55 clinics/hospitals to STILL PROMOTE the IONA test.

The secured loan facility of up to £2.1m with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) secured against Yourgene shares plus the release of the Second Tranche of warrants and £1m loan facility - all since mid January shows that TMO is still on board. I suspect sales have been done by PIs and not institutions as wouldn't make sense now

I believe that's the central investment decision. Obviously there'll be some who will look to materialise their losses or small gains and go elsewhere (like BitCoin or something) to make more funds and come back before or after settlement. However for me that's just adding more risk to me and this is the investment decision I wrestle with and so sticking seems on balance the most sensible. At £15m market capitalisation even the Court imposed terms would see a rerate of a significant multiple as Sales would I suspect come close to existing market capitalisation this year. I like you Hemo was disappointed that the BoD went for appeal and would have preferred a settlement. No point going for an appeal to make a private settlement and then saying you cannot broker a deal which in a nutshell is the frustration we have seen in the last 2 weeks. The BoD have consistently overestimated their legal credibility and chances of getting their options. Wanting to see what comes out of the '321 hearing and the appeal seems a continuation of this delusion for themselves and those close to them. That negativity aside the company has close to 10% of a billion dollar market already on existing sales and 20 international partnerships. This provides me some belief that even in a distressed sell scenario (which is becoming equally likely now) TMO may make a offer to shareholders. I am still hopeful of achieving a 24p TO scenario within the year.

The only logical reason why anyone would sell now is if they believed any eventual settlement would be worse than that which could be negotiated with Illumina or which would be imposed by the Court. So in the Form of Order hearing in the High Court, Premaitha was granted the right to appeal against the judgement against it handed down in November 2017. Interim costs of ca.£1.5m were ordered and 10% of UK sales are being placed in escrow as a reserve against potential future damages. To support these costs FUNDING IS ALREADY IN PLACE via a secured loan facility of up to £2.1m with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) secured against Yourgene shares. So the logical reason why you would sell is if you felt that the costs and terms (either negotiated with Illumina directly or imposed by the Court) would be more punitive and more funding will be required from TMO. THAT SAID if you felt that the terms were broadly what will be brokered eventually at that at worst from not getting a settlement with Illumina they will default and go back to the High Court to get these terms – then all the bad news is priced in. The only other logical reason why someone would sell now is because they felt that there would be no news in the interim and some expected news (break-even, new product launches etc.) will be delayed in the interim. However this is more of a delay factor although creates frustration should not prompt the materialisation of a loss in the interim. So if you feel this will come good in the end then the gains outweigh the temporary (stretching the word temporary I know) frustrations. It should be noted that there’s been no distancing of the IONA test from any of the 55 clinics / hospitals where it is available in the UK and that the major shareholders are the same as before: Directors ~ 23.9% Helium Rising Stars ~ 7.4% Harwood Capital ~ 5.3% Ken Chang ~ 4.0% Calculus Capital ~ 3.9% Hargreave Hale ~ 3.8%

Well the earliest that we would hear back from the 321 hearing would be July wouldn't it? Are we to have a news blackout till then? Why would there have been a leak to generate volume a few weeks ago only to turn out to be nothing the end? PIs got sucked in again. Whats the point of going through another hearing they cannot win? Whats the point of TMO tying up deals without brokering this settlement.

Such a disappointment if true

Although this article does not specifically refer to Premaitha it is a good article which explains the growing collaboration between previously rival diagnostics companies and how despite the ongoing industry litigation it is no longer a zero sum game. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/biotech/sd-me-illumina-sequencer-20180221-story.html Separately I notice that Thermo Fisher Scientific reported a 22 percent increase in fourth quarter revenues, driven by growth across its businesses. For Q4 Thermo Fisher posted a profit of $528 million, or $1.30 per share. The company's net profit for 2017 was $2.23 billion, or $5.59 per share, up 10 percent from $2.02 billion, or $5.09 per share, in 2016. That all said there�s no Premaitha news specifically. �Dreams� of 50p are always nice however it would be good if the BoD actually finally delivered more than backroom bullshit and brokered a legal settlement after 3 years to get over and stay above 5p. Hopefully there�s news in the next week.

Despite the downside risks it seems that TMO, current customers and institutional investors are somewhat relaxed that the more extreme and negative scenarios are unlikely to happen. I suspect that the reason for there not being Director Dealings since the Interim results as there is some restrictions due to current operations.There is some potential of a significant re-rate within the next month if the hypothesis is true and timeline is true that a wider and more favourable settlement is being sought before the '321 hearing. That should a settlement not be achievable then Premaitha would return to Judge Carr and say a private settlement is not possible and they're no longer looking to appeal in which case a scenarios would be imposed. If the hypothesis is proven true then it would point to the subsequent release of contract/commercial/product news being released in short order. Hopefully the news release and trading patterns of the last few weeks is pointing to something being engineered behind the scenes and which will be made public in the near term

If you believe a settlement should have been done by last July; could have been done my last October; hope to have been done by January then this period of time with the daily dashed hopes must be quite painful. I had hoped that the trading pattern and news flow a few weeks ago was suggesting a settlement was getting close. The timeline and potential narrative going forward is quite clear. It was a bit odd that they had said that the the Second Tranche of warrants had been released and �1m loan funding had been released by TMO but not going further to confirm whether any performance milestones had been met

Basically if the Company hadn't asked to go to appeal a settlement would have been rules by the Judge. As the Company had asked for an appeal hearing his hands were tied. Why would the BoD have asked for an appeal given that the initial ruling was so negative and the chances of a complete reversal are unlikely? Might be more sensible to get a settlement imposed rather than incur additional legal charges? The only rationale is that the BoD felt they could get better terms by negotiating a private settlement whilst asking for an appeal. The potential terms that could be imposed by a judge have been outlined by the interim payment ordered last month. We also have the terms imposed upon Roche after they lost to Illumina in the States. So basically we have a timeline and potential terms and are now just waiting to see if a deal will be done iin next month. There's a degree of frustration and boredom now among LTHs. I suspect the reason why some news (eg. Breakeven or new contracts and products) is being sat on is that the Company are wanting to get the legal issues out of the way as if they release positive news it will be discounted by the market. So it all comes down if you think a deal will be done within the next month. I suspect that if a deal was done there would be some significant pumping of the sp towards a sale thereafter. Hey Twix you still around as not heard from you in a while? You've not also sold out as some others and coming back in 12 months time for 50p?

My understanding, from another post on this BB, was that the claim lodged in September 2017 by that Premaitha infringed on European Patent (UK) 1 524 321 82, known as the �321� patent, as filed by Sequenom in 2003, will be heard by end of March 2018. It would make more sense than not if a deal was to be done for it to be done before the '321 hearing as this would indemnify Premaitha from this and other claims. Also I believe the EU Commission would be giving its assessment thereafter so it would make sense if a deal was to be done it would be done then. However we are still waiting for the BoD to deliver which is leading to frustration.

Despite losing its legal case in the US (and the UK) and being liable $27m Roche has shown continued confidence in buying Flatiron Health. Under the terms of the deal, Roche will hand over $1.9 billion to acquire all outstanding shares of Flatiron, as Roche already holds a minority stake of 12.6 percent. Flatiron will continue to operate as a separate legal entity. Roche bought Flatiron Health because it develops oncology-specific electronic health record (EHR) systems. Flatiron is also a partner of hundreds of cancer clinics, six major research facilities, and therapeutic oncology companies. It's an interesting acquisition structure. For Premaitha I suspect this means that Roche will not be looking to buy us :-) I don't have any contacts within the company and other posters maybe able to guide you on any expected news flow or otherwise. I am not satisfied though humming dreams of 50p to myself overlooking the BoD's hubris and subsequent sp performance. Although Year End is in March the results can take a further quarter to be released. The company has in the past gone months without releasing a RNS however now seems to be releasing RNS (some vacuous) to support the SP on a regular basis. So I suspect something is being engineered. It also has made some pointed remarks of not having outstanding warrant commitments to TMO as they seem to be distancing themselves from this type of financing. There are however limited options available.

The significance of these type of RNS should not only be seen in the volume tests alone but through the processing of the samples and the geographical network that is has to leverage. Premaitha has over 20 lab partnerships now. To put this in perspective Sequenom - now part of LabCorp - (24 agreements), Natera (20 agreements), BGI (18 agreements), Ariosa Diagnostics (14 agreements) and Illumina (13 agreements). It has now a pretty strong geographical footprint in the Middle East compared to other NIPT providers. This has its own market capitalisation in the event of a T/O as the geographical footprint and lab network can be leveraged for other commercial ventures. Chin up all. Buy in Q1 and sell in Q2.