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Now that the share price has stabalised and the outline of a potential settlement and bounds of any damages are increasingly becoming clearer (thanks bakky) we may find new fellow investors in the next week. So our resident expert will be joined by many who will never tire of telling us of their great entry price. Much of what was said in this post was fair. They're I'm sure many LTH's who despite feeling misinformed and let down by the BoD will still be averaging down next week. This may be a slow ride to 2015 levels as with a low entry point there will have to be a constant supply of good news to resupply the inevitable churn of investors. Hopefully however there's more RNS next week which could secure a strong bounce. I suspect the BoD know the urgency of this. With Interim results due within 2-3 weeks we should seen further news and a lifting of the moratorium on Director share purchases. Key thing of the week is no Press Release from St George or any other NHS trust or private clinic distancing themselves from the IONA test, no Institutional sales and no Director sales.

What one should see after a potential settlement is worked through is a lifting of the confidentiality requirements meaning that a better value of the existing contracts is understood. This should then create a momentum of its own. Indeed some could argue why not settle in the first place, before, or during trial but we are where we are, which feels oversold given the potential of a settlement and the likely scenarios thereafter

Although some will get frustrated on yesterday's RNS lack of details the key message for me was SL's statement that the scope of the judgement affected only the UK. That should provide a limiting factor on any damages and impact to operations. It also suggests what the basis of the negotiations may be. With TW's statements that forecasts to breakeven this financial year will still be met despite the judgement and that in 2019 onward massive profits will be made this seems oversold just on existing revenues. Although a deal obviously takes time to work through and formalise the statements already out there should provide PIs some guidance on where they stand and the likely scenarios that will happen.

Well we can definitely assume that Ariosa/Roche will appeal. In the event that one party appeals and the others don't what happens then?

The maximum term of a European patent is 20 years from its filing date. The priority date, sometimes called the "effective filing date", is the date used to establish the novelty and/or obviousness of a particular invention relative to other art. The Priority Date of the patents in question are as follows: Lo 1: 4 March 1997 Quake 1/2: 2 February 2006 Lo 2/3: 23 July 2007 In terms of specifics dates these patents lapse I wouldn't know however. Think the bounce back will start from here as all the worst case scenarios have been understood by market now

Cheers, the reason for still holding is that if an agreement is made with Illumina, which can happen, and even if more TMO support is taken to pay for compensation and operating costs - the BoD would eventually have to sell some time next year as TMO would have close to 50% under warrants by then. In which case you should see a sale of 24p+.

I think under the circumstances, and a settlement is agreed, we should expect that the RNS will be brief and anonymous. I think the key message here was that long term future is safe and business is still expanding

Hemo, Just by way of precedent you may recall Inno-Gene which is the parent of Centrum Badan which was a contract Premaitha won in 2015. When Illumina started targeted Premaitha's customers in addition to Genoma it also targeted this company. Innogene reached an agreement with Illumina over its patent dispute in June 2017 by switching over its NGS to Illumina and in return Illumina withdrew the writ against them. Premaitha didn't probably because it was not allowed to by TMO. That dynamic has certainly changed in the UK region and EU which probably means that a deal could be possible. It has also been interesting to me that the YourGene Core Lab has a Illumina platforms as well as TMO's Life Technology and is an Illumina certified supplier. If no deal is possible I suspect you may see some bluster about appeals and some (small) cash raising whilst a distressed sale is worked through and for operating costs. A massive fund raising is unlikely in my view till the next hearing when the judge will decide if any damages or costs should be paid and the likelihood of a settlement is known. For me the key thing is for a deal to be done quickly (settle and / or sale) and for us to move on.

The key determinant will be whether (1) TMO buy us out or another; (2) whether Illumina settle with Premaitha beforehand; or (3) whether the judge spares Premaitha some of the legal fees and potential damages. The reason why (1) is important is because if another company buy Premaitha out you would expect that TMO would want the price to clear 24p in order to have all their warrants exercisable. A company like Ariosa/Roche would not be phased by the legal fees and appeals as they are facing them anyway. Otherwise if TMO purchase us on a distressed basis it is a question on how those warrants and loans would be treated in the offer. Would they still pay 24p to get the 30% they have already paid for or will they just reduce this from the offer amount. Although Illumina would obviously play hardball but Premaitha can appeal to the Judge directly and the next hearing.

Yes dark days. Especially given all the private and public reassurances by the BoD and third parties. We just have to think logically what's the likely scenarios from where we are. Despite any bluster and public statements of appeals the company will try and avoid that as it would distract them and dilute completely. So likely scenarios are ultimately settle or distressed sell or a combination of the both. Obviously Illumina will bluster and play hard ball but then a distressed sell would come sooner than later and for more than 4p.

The verdict has provided a new reality which everyone is adjusting their stances. Ultimately TMO need their warrants to be exercisable or risk losing 15m dollars. share dilution for an appeal or damages that don't need to happen doesn't help that. Neither does making Premaitha a non going concern or further distracted. Their focus is on the strategic value outside UK

Exactly. There will be an intense session now when Premaitha will be trying to secure various commercial options. For example license opportunities to Illumina if it switches platform just in the affected areas which TMO would agree to keep Premaitha a going concern and a growing incumbent in Asia which is the strategic concern. Otherwise options for a distressed sell. Premaitha will only have a few weeks to do this before next hearing but the market will demand this done sooner. Till then there's no point working ourselves up

There will be a lot of numbers about in the next few days and weeks. Some higher. Ultimately the damages will be limited to the legal fees and any revenue withing UK jurisdiction. This would be the worst case scenario. This could be limited by licensee arrangements, ceasing operations, changing technology basis or not appealing.

Yes Twix there will be a cull in the BoD and Management Team now. Which would reduce operating costs. I expect also William Denham (CMO) to be added to the list. With any luck there will be a flurry of RNS in the next few days and a resolution in the next month.

I would agree that the BoD's preferred internal option would be to settle and license. Any potential damages etc. would be limited and negotiated as part of this. Any share dilution to cover this scenario I would suggest has already been priced in at this sp. Ariosa can continue on their own with the appeal. Sure they'll be the regular bluster but I think given the past negotiations they should be able to pull of a deal before Christmas. The best thing thereafter would be a quick sell which should see a return to LTH.

Don't be a twit. You cut and paste a comment from earlier this evening already reviewed on ADVFN and acknowledged in private in desperation. You suggested a placing of 3p and in desperation provide me something to comment on a placing of 5p when the share price is 4.6p. You spent months espousing your private conversations with Hardman which you have yet to make any amends for. Please shut up

I think you need to get a hold of yourself. Do it now please. Yes there's an issue of cost of appeal and damages (if damages are allowed and for what in next hearing). But this would only cover the remit of UK high Court jurisdiction. So the dames could only be at maximum the legal fees plus the revenue earned to date. Look through the last year's AGM statements. The UK has been a declining market share than in the past. There will be no general placing. I suspect there will be an issue of Warrants to TMO but @ what price who knows. At present the market capitalisation is £14.5m vs sales of £10.8m (a la discredited Hardman) @ 2018E. Even with all the bad news. Let's say they have to give a X to Illumina the sp vs market capitalisation will still be less than what most companies trade at. The bad news is here and priced. Get a hold of your balls or grab your wife's.

Sorry corrections: 1) If UK is only 10% some could argue just to walk away from UK and remove the dark cloud ~ I would why dilute a company for a market which is not your strategic value. 2) $15 is $15m. Crap day, crap typing

Although thoroughly discredited now in the last Hardman report "In fiscal 2017, sales were derived from the UK (33%), EMEA (63%) and with just one-month contribution from Yourgene, APC (4%). More labs have recently been signed in the Middle East, making it an increasingly important contributor. For fiscal 2018, the spread of activity is likely to be nearer UK (10%), EMEA (40%) and APAC (50%), significantly de-risking the business." Today the 20% mentioned I thought was a bit high but there you go. So as mentioned Illumina can play hardball and just say given this verdict why settle and just beat them again on appeal or chance there will not be an appeal. If they do TMO will have to fund Premaitha. TMO will have to otherwise they loose the $15 loaned to Premaitha (sorry this was not the $11m mentioned earlier). The share dilution is NOW priced in. This means that if Premaitha issued another 10% to TMO there would be minimal impact. If EMEA is 10% to 20% some could argue just to walk away from EMEA and remove the dark cloud ~ I would why dilute a company which is not your strategic value. So yes there are costs to pay in the event of a settlement, but desirable over a year of appeals. If there is settlement then rather than diluting the share base the BoD may just do a distressed sell to another company. A share price of 0.4p when you have 321m shares in issue gives you a market capitalisation of �13m. Premaitha's expected sales figures for the 2018E is expected (thanks to discredited Hardman) to be at �10.8m.

The maximum term of a European patent is 20 years from its filing date. The priority date, sometimes called the "effective filing date", is the date used to establish the novelty and/or obviousness of a particular invention relative to other art. The Priority Date of the patents in question are as follows: Lo 1: 4 March 1997 Quake 1/2: 2 February 2006 Lo 2/3: 23 July 2007 In terms of specifics dates these patents lapse I wouldn't know however.