Member Info for notaflipper

We just have to think things through...why would a new CEO join a company with still a massive amount of uncertainty in new product development, commercial litigation or cash reserves? Why would you even need to hire a new CEO and for what purpose? The replacement of SL was 8 months too late imo so has to coincide with further developments. Let's see what next week brings but this fourth year of purgatory is more frustrating to be sure. I though don't believe that the BoD will be targeting a successful appeal and the time for backroom bravado is well and truly over

The ‘deadline’ by when it has to be released is September given year end in March, but Hardman has said July since November last year. But then again Hardman is not saying anything more of Premaitha in its monthly newsletter though we should be expecting an in-depth individual analysis ‘shortly’. Spetemer is not shortly and I would not expect Hardman could release this in advance of Finals. So expecting both to come together and still hoping it to be ‘shortly’. Best however is challenge Hardman and Premaitha IR directly as its your investment. I have to think that the new CEO would have preferred for the outgoing CEO to sign-off on last year’s accounts and not take that fiduciary responsibility. In which case it is sitting on the shelf waiting for other developments to be released with a forward looking statements supplied by new CEO. That’s my reading FWIW. I also imagine that as the outgoing CEO has already laid the ground-work for new product launches and the the litigation settlement (finally) then you have to ask what is the main deliverables of the new CEO and for me that is a sucessful TO price whenever and at whatever price that maybe.

Today’s news of the incoming CEO options was to be expected and mentioned already on this BB. The subdued market reaction suggests that this was also expected by the market. That they double the outgoing CEO’s is of passing interest compared to the underlying narrative that the new CEO would only have come on-board with a confirmation that an exit strategy was already in-hand with Illumina. As we are nearly coming to our anniversary of our High Court decision – which we had already waited many years for – I’m sure many are just looking for an end and a chance to move on. Realistically it could be argued they had to award themselves these shares before any settlement or further significant news. The share dilution and low option price can be seen as part of a wider exit strategy for the BoD. So we go back to waiting however I am hopeful of news soon. In any event we should be hearing of Finals within the next couple of weeks I think.

While I welcome that Dr Little is no longer the CEO some of the commentary on this BB seems to forget that the 15th May fundraising also awarded “New shares issued in lieu of existing liabilities” to Premaitha BoD/Management Team members. So in total 10,097,460 shares were issued in lieu of £0.5m. So Dr Little as part of that received then a further 1,444,445 shares after the High Court loss where most of us LTHs are still under water. So I would suggest he has not suffered nearly as much as some suggest given that he still has 5,328,283 or 1.4% of the of the enlarged capital. Unfortunately today’s statement did not go into what share options the new CEO will get. Having finally removed the duplication of roles between a Chief Scientific Officer and a Chief Medical Officer we now have a Chairman and an Executive Vice Chairman. This after a doubling of the BoD and Management Team in the last few years. Yet despite all this we are still outstanding a current sales forecast, a formal extended product launch and a legal resolution. Good news but bitter sweet. Not sure what it means for a TO however I've always assumed that Premaitha would still have its own organisation post a TO.

It was questioned by a 3rd Party associate why Premaitha does not appear on Hardman’s latest monthly report and if they remained still a client of Hardman given the restrictive nature of reporting un the last 8 period. Response was as follows: “Premaitha is still a client of ours,h however, it has moved from an annual contract to one on an ‘ad hoc’ basis, so will not appear in the Monthly. We are due to put something out with new numbers shortly.” Hopefully this will put in context the various partnerships and new product news that we have been receiving via RNS. ***************

I have found it interesting comparing the various legal summations to past public and private statements so the BoD have had a deliberate strategy. I am lucky compared to others as I was able to hang on, average down and I feel comfortable in my investment coming good here and well within TW's timescales. That see's me through my frustrations (together with the Lagavulin). However my expectations here are different to others in some areas. One further option not discussed is a withdrawal of the appeal and an imposed settlement by Judge Carr however I suspect that the reason for not going down this route is that the BoD believe a settlement on more favourable terms is still possible.

A Case Management Conference ("CMC") is procedural - as much of law is - but it is significant as it publicly outlines the areas of continued dispute between parties. Most holders here I suspect are LTHs who can recall, to our chagrin, the RNS following the CMC hearing in mid 2016. Here the High Court rejected an application by Illumina to change which patents would be heard in the scheduled October 2016 trial, and instead accepted Premaitha's counter-proposal for a combined trial on all three patents in summer 2017. So the areas that are discussed at a CMC are not insignificant and one could have expected a RNS post following past precedent to confirm the appeal timescales etc. We have received RNS of Premaitha attending medical exhibitions so I don't think this is any less substantial. We are however continuing the BoD's adopted strategy of continuing to stall and drag this legal process whilst reducing expanding the technological footprint and reducing the UK sales % of overall sales. Aside from our frustrations which has to be combined with UK customers, together with the marching legal costs, this strategy has also resulted in a doubling of shares since 2015 at a depressed SP. So for example TMO via their warrants have circa 20% of shares at a 14p average. This is aside from the uncertainty it leads onto UK staff, delays to relocation planning and continued uncertainty over contingent claims. How long this strategy will continue who knows but given 2018 Finals are expected in July I believe there will be further (good) news in the interim. My head goes round in circles trying to work out whether news released today and not sat upon means that a settlement is still much further away or that after 7 months we must surely have exhausted all potential negotiations on top of the three years beforehand.

I appreciate that partnership news like today's are difficult for investors to quantify without knowing the timescales and costs of route to market and the size of the potential market. However there does seem to be an emerging strategy of Premaitha developing partnership agreements to leverage its in vitro diagnostic workflow and technology on already established clinical DNA sequencing tests. There is a positive to this strategy in advance of any product launch in that it does increase the current IP worth by demonstrating alternative potential applications. So prior to actual delivery these agreements would add value in a TO scenario.

There was a CMC hearing with John Carr on Wednesday according to the Rolls list hence thinking the TW article wasn't coincidence. But then again it could have been immaterial

Strange there was a CMC hearing this week which coincided with the profit taking but no RNS.

I don't think the timing of his latest article was pure coincidence and I suspect he was made aware there's more material news coming. Next few days will be interesting. Today is annoying but let's hope it will be worth it by end of week. Good luck all and stay strong.

5m estimate is from Hardman's Jan 2016 report.

I think some of the lack of traction with the SP has more to do with a lack of forward sales forecast which has been lacking since November. That said the spate of material RNS should be seen in the light that UK has roughly 780k live births a year, Europe has 4m, China has 18.5m and India has 26m. In total there's 136m live births a year of which a % are categorised as high risk and would benefit from either state funded NIPT tests or private insurance/funded tests. The volume of Premaitha's tests should be seen in the light of other NIPT providers: MaterniTi21: 162k Panaroma: 185k Harmony: 150k So the potential value of Premaitha and it's SP should be seen in this light given its reported test volumes which are set to potentially double via India / China

hi barnaby, long time and hope your mother's service went well. Given that the SP at one point reached 3.5p with 321m shares and had a market capitalisation then of iro �12m to then with 386m shares that 50p (or 200m market capitalisation) seems an aggressive target but let's hope as am a holder. The name change to Yourgene Health outside Europe should be indicative though of the reputational damage done. I think the technical floor of TMO's warrants is 24.6p so still room for growth whatever the end point and scenario. It is interesting to me that they did dilute a further 20% and add on 65m more shares when operational break-even had been achieved; sales were already forecasted to be iro of �28m for 2019FY and contracts similar to this week's RNS are expected. But I'm sure we will find out. Having had nearly 7 months since the High Court judgement I really do hope there's a legal resolution soon however one way or the other. ATB

Sorry my mistake I think Harwood had 5.3% before placing according to Hardman's May report.

The recent placing makes historical comparisons of holdings confusing. My understanding is that Oryx via Harwood had previously 4.01% when the share capital was 321,218,279.00 (or 12,880,852.99 shares) and now have 3.88% of the enlarged share capital of 386,843,523.00 (or 15,009,529 shares) but perhaps my reading is wrong. I am hoping that all these Holding RNS and volume indicates some final legal resolution after years of miscalculation and false confidences. I am still of the impression that a (distressed) sell thereafter is the most likely scenario.

Understand that the net position is 5,010,017 (long) including all shorts. Supposed to be very popular but the majority of position is not made up of many, many hundreds of small PIs but there's a handful with some sizeable positions (e.g. circa 1.5-2m+). Positions not recent but passed threshold now. Hope they know something. They must have had an interesting few years.

Agreed. However will be some jitters this morning and till news breaks. I have to declare also a 'long' with them Think some shorts have cleared this week ATB all LTHs

Think all it suggests in itself is that people have taken a significant position in Spreadex

Does this means people closing their shorts with Spreadex then?

I cannot understand the comment that the BoD having bought £950k+ of shares would then flip them for a quick profit. Aside from TW using the defence that the reason for it being a private placing was precisely to prevent flipping for early profit. For this to be true it would have to mean (a) there’s NO NEW product due imminently despite several references in recent RNS; AND (b) NO settlement with Illumina on negotiated or forced terms is possible; AND (c) NO orderly exit strategy from the UK is possible AND finally (d) NO new Contract news is awaiting. I use the term “AND” in capitals just one of these news items would have to be released for more share appreciation. So the BoD would only sell if ALL of them was not possible or anytime soon. Although I share some of the frustrations of the BOD and the massive, massive impatience that after 6 months no legal resolution has been unveiled – I do not think this is true. I would have thought that the restricted placing last week suggests no further issue of warrants to TMO is required and that this was part of the exit strategy of the BoD. At what price and when is now the only question for me but I do not think it is 7p despite the quick £350k gain for Bill Chang etc. Further I would have hoped that the ham fisted nature that this was done reflected some knowledge that news would come soon and time was running out for them to fill in their boots. Best of luck to all LTHs and hope to see you all at the finish line.