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Called up and spoke to investor relations. Results expected today I believe.
Not expecting any nasty surprises as before.
We just need to get a hold of ourselves

Suggestion on UKADVFN chat board that some formal presentation is taking place next month which could indicate further news flow. That and private messages to those close to the company could be the reason why although the SP has fallen, and everyone is frankly non-plussed, you have not seen that much large volume.

Bring on the results ffs and let's move on!

Emailed them too
That said I am expecting results today with no nasty surprises that is worrying some.

Okay
So let's play this game....
What is the worst that can happen...cash call is it? This share has already had a few. It had them on the way up earlier in the year. If there was, which given the past share dilutions would be minor, it needs to be balanced in perspective of expanding into the US etc It would be surprising if the CEO's fist announcement to shareholders did not have some good news.

Exactly we already know b/e achieved
We already know of sales of circa £6m+
We already know ned products are in development and work has already begun on new Illumina product
We already know of 10% put aside for royalties

So the delay in results ia not great performance from new CEO however there's no complete bombshells expected

PIs seem to be getting worked up into a state
Let's be clear...Settlement has been achieved. Legal costs to Illumina @ £1M. Legal war chest exists, royalties war chest exists and payments exist have already been made

There was a background transfer of shares around the 10p mark and now there's a backroom transfer happening at the 13p.
Those who held their nerve and patience took benefit loading up at the 10p stalling point. Hopefully history will repeat itself but we may yet still see more largish trades this afternoon and a further Holdings RNS tomorrow.

Has to be done I am afraid: - https://i.pinimg.com/originals/af/d1/41/afd1417cf418b12945d2ac8ebc4f7b11.jpg

I leave it to the BB to decide who the other character is on the BB.
Another nerve-racking day. Hopefully good news tomorrow

Whatever that means...

Arms raised. I concede.

Shame that the new CEO has not changed the quality of communication and reporting behaviours yet but it all depends on the message.

Twix you seems to be on a bit of a roll. Took you, and us, a few years but we have to admit it now. Why don't you rise to bakky's challenge on the results given that you're on a roll?

I suspect (a) operational breakeven confirmed or good as, (b) sales to double in 2019YE and again in 2020YE (c) further organisational restructuring. Progress on new product development will be referred to but suspect will come at another time. What about you?

I am reserving my right to press the refresh button for the MIA RNS for the rest of the day whilst slowly banging my head.

Arms folded

You know it doesn't count if it's not a result of guesswork :-I

oooh dear nervous now.

What does he know??? Well I still have 50% chance or do I?

Well at least we did not make it more colourful like suggesting that the looser had to register a new handler like "twixisalwaysright" but then again given our trading balances we both would be reaching on that one.

Hopefully the results whenever dropped are in line with expectations and will calm some of the wider strategic insecurities raised.

mmm I am still sticking to Thursday.

Gentleman's wager? Happy to make it more interesting as the missus is always keen to remind me that I'm no gentleman,

Yes I think in terms of Finals for last year there will not be much surprises further to unaudited results (i.e circa £7m sales, operating break-even confirmed bar exceptional legal items). Key thing would be forward looking sales figures plus strategic update on positioning and associated re-engineering costs.

I would not be too surprised to hear of a further organisational reshuffle / alignment.

I would be interested in hearing of an update from Sorcerer here. His (?) post requoted below makes for quite interesting reading:
"Based on fundamentals alone, I reckon that every £1.3m of profit translates into 10p on the share price (at a P/E ratio of 30). With the warrants fully exercised, it would take £1.6m for each 10p on the sp, but it still highlights that it wouldn’t take a huge uplift in earnings to move the sp very quickly indeed, particularly given the relatively low liquidity of the stock."

Given that unaudited results stated that operational breakeven was achieved with sales of £6m it would be interesting to see the expected profit for next year with sales in mid teens upwards and how this would feed into the calculations above. Also of any revised sales forecasts once new product plus updated IONA/Illumina test gets launched.

Although Twix has close to 8 hours still to go I suspect Thursday as well. Another enjoyable day to go.

Hardman quoted the last set of financial forecasts prior to the High Court loss. So the forecast would not reflect either the impact of the latest contracts nor the headwinds following the court loss nor the re-engineering/licensing costs following settlement.

However on page 34 of the November report they quoted £28m for sales for this year 2019E and £10.9 for 2018E.
http://www.hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/mohtnly-newsletters/hardman-monthly-november-2017.pdf

So we know from the 15th May RNS that the unaudited sales for 2018 that sales were £6.2m vs £10m expected but doubled from £3m to £6m. At the same time Premaitha declared 'operational' break-even not withstanding one-off costs for legal settlement

Finals would have to restate break-even to reassure PIs confused to say the least - which I expect it will. I also think sales forecast for 2019E would be in the low-teens conservatively. Sales of £51.54m expected in 2020FY may actually be conservative lol if the revised to include US sales

Free to trade in UK and anywhere within countries of the European Patent Convention and selected other territories

There is no explicit barrier to trade in US. The reason why Premaitha haven't so far is because as a (a) CE-IVD they would need FDA approval which can be expensive and long-winded but then Trump has looked to speed this up; and (b) more importantly it would inevitably incur further legal challenges by Illumina.

On this latter point it should be borne in mind that the litigation between Sequenom and Roche (re 450 case) reveals a different interpretation to the High Court Judgement of Judge Carr.

Regardless the upshot of this all is that with the IONA test based on Illumina sequencers they could trade freely in the US without fear of litigation but pay a royalty to Illumina. This test will be developed within 9 months and launched within 2 years however expectation is there is some buffer in these timescales.

Entry into US and India etc is quite important not only because of the population size but because these tests are potentially reimbursable via private insurance for average risk pregnancies in contrast to NHS which is just for high-risk (1 in 150 births)

For me the more significant undercurrent of this week's RNS was that there does seem to be an undercurrent that two distinct companies are being formed (Premaitha Health in UK/EU and YourGene Health in Rest of World) based on two different platforms. Although many PIs have focused on some of short-term re-engineering challenges the key strategic opportunity this offers is of 2 TOs vs 1 at different timescales. I suspect we would not need to await too long to see if this hypothesis is right.

Shake a tree and some monkeys will fall. However this week should see some significant results + a comprehensive Hardman report and beginnings, hopefully, of the next leg up.

ATB all LTHs

Despite the RNS they're only accepting closing trades I am led to believe now. I believe this means they are nor longer accepting any 'long' spreads as they're risk team do not allow them to hold more than a certain % of company. So you can close but cannot buy. Been the case for many months now I am told but there could have been a temporary gap. Most of position is only held by a few PIs I am told.

I found this comment interesting...

"Will they take us over and ring fence the EU as a separate entity?
Or would illumina try to take us over to this benefit from our rapidly growing non EU business and try to migrate it over to their platforms?"

At present I believe the company trades as Premaitha Health within Europe and YourGene Health internationally. The commercial resolution leads in my mind to two companies to be formalised on that basis based on different platforms and strategic partnerships. This can lead to not just one TO but two, probably at different timescales.

I doubt that Illumina would have agreed to a technical solution that was not viable. The commitment to lodge a CE-IVD patent in 9 months I suspect alludes to that development is already begun. YourGene already has a model of running both TMO and Illumina NGS in their lab. So Premaitha will follow that model and there be another sequencer in Manchester lab and will existing customers have to buy a further Illumina sequencer - yes in a few years - but to put you need to put it in perspective that this lab equipment would naturally have to be updated and replaced. What Premaitha have been doing already is offering trade financing to customers to buy TMO sequencers to then sell them NIPT tests. They have been supported by TMO in this process. I suspect a similar strategy would be employed in 2020 this time though with switching to Illumina sequencers.

wrt to TMO and relationship to TO there will not be a RNS that addresses this as it would be too explicit a statement. Most I think we will hear is some bland statement of support from existing technology partners. Will there be an explicit statement that TMO are still happy to take out Premaitha, I doubt it.

The thing is though you do not need this statement...If you look at page 5 of the Hardman report there is a great diagram. Here you see how many existing NIPT tests run on TMO sequencers and how many run on Illumina (Roche excluded from analysis)

http://hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/company-docs/premaitha-health-plc-documents/03.10.16-excellent-first-year-for-iona.pdf

So you will see on Illumina you have Panorama, Verfii and MateriT21 and on the TMO sequencer...just Premaitha. So Premaitha is of strategic importance to TMO especially as the NGS market is tenfold the size of the NIPT market,

The passage below from the report was key to me to understand that a TO is inevitable here. The question is time and price. It also was key to me to suggest yesterday that a completely new test had to be developed for this licensing model to work.
"The DNA library sequencing process within Premaitha’s IONA test is run on TMO’s Ion Torrent Proton and Ion Torrent Chef sequencing instruments which, unlike some of the reagents, cannot be substituted readily by instruments from an alternative manufacturer. Therefore, there is an inherent interdependency between Premaitha and TMO."

I suspect that the settlement news announced you will be seeing news flows in the coming days before Finals. So for example you should start to see more Contract news at the very least and greater visibility of customers and figures. I would be surprised if we do not see an all encompassing Hardman report in the next week.

BTW yes you and Dibs were right that there was £2m paid in May was met by the additional TMO facility earlier in the year. Still expecting more news on details via Hardman and further sp rise in coming week.

Well done on hanging on Twix great courage.
where is baaky today indeed given some people probably sold yesterday and in the preceding months because of his statements.

The key thing in RNS for me was the statement "Once launched, Premaitha will pay Illumina a royalty per sample tested using the IONA® test based on Illumina sequencing technology" this suggests that the royalty fee will only kick in with the launch of the new test which could be as far off as in 2020? That is good deal if true.