Member Info for notaflipper

fwiw my understanding is that growth % was 41% in the EU and 24% in the UK from H1 2017/18 to H1 2018/19 despite litigation headwinds during that period. Obviously internationally is much higher at 53%. There is a new partnershio framework agreement in place with TMO for open territories.

with the acquisition of Yourgene in Dec 2016 which necessitated £500 cash plus circa 75m new acquisition shares in exchange at a price of 9p (so once again unbelievably more than we are now) there were some PIs who got phased and the sp fell by 5%. Here the sp has dropped by more than 50% since illumina settlement and from circa 11.75p when the first iteration of these figures were shown. On completion of Yourgene acquisition in March 2017 the price was 12.3p. It is a bit difficult to comprehend the reaction here but when these figures were released for the 1st time 2 months ago there was an intra-day low to 7.7p after which (from memory) the sp rose to above 9p within a week or so. The problem then was there was a placing period but I imagine even in the absence of any news or TMO deal the same trading pattern will be followed with people taking advantage of the over-reaction to get a position in advance of imminent news.

Deal was targeted for company relaunch on 7th November with revised broker rating following for new TDIM change. The back-stop was Interims due to the impact on Interims content. Unfortunately this was missed and you have another cycle of emotional posts about Going Concerns, Placings etc. All this is a reiteration of tedious concerns made before the Director purchases at 10p. They will still target End of Year to be consistent with past comments but whether December or January is immaterial which should see a rerate and stabalisation at a much higher level afterwards new strategic plan would be unveiled. With the current sp below the level at which the New CEO was appointed, new oncology service launched and Illumina settlement all because of a report now 2 months old seems a bit overdone but there you go. I imagine at some point today the PIs will come to their senses and realise that the broker ratings (which were agreed to be pessimistic) have not changed and that even without a TMO deal there is 100%+ potential from here. But I guess posters shouting any old number seems the norm for the current time

Hemo the drop was obviously coming once Interims would be recycled Finals without TMO publicised deal so already sold heavily out from a few weeks ago. Some private expectation I was passed to hold on from Finals were incorrect but believe the lost profit can still be made up post rerate. Unfortunately this drop was obvious to predict, and was, and will follow the same routine as Finals where it dropped to the same mid 7s level and then will rebound from there. Best of luck in coming days

bakky, with two platform providers onboard and a pipeline and broader diversification of products there is more underlying strength in the company. It's hard to get excited on a narrative two months old now though I appreciate some derampers suggest there is something new which was not there when the Directors and IIs subscribed to £3m back in Oct after the 1st iteration of these same figures. I'm expecting after TMO deal for there to be a quick 20% return on completion of TMO deal which could have some further developments to it. Timeframe was before Interims and could still be by Year End to save face but you'd have to figure by end of Jan.
Cash position is fine till end of Financial Year when this "cunning" plan of Lynn Rees gets finally revealed. So expecting TMO deal (whatever form it takes) before any funding calls which I hink need to be reminded would be for acquisition and growth so should be cash generative. With Illumina CE-IVD due in 2020 whatever the TMO deal expect further moves by TMO whilst YGEN is still cheap. And yup through the BoDs actions in the last quarter they have made this company cheap for TO

I expect a deal of some sort to be done with TMO before end of Jan. It is clear that the BoD were targeting Interims for the TMO deal given that now people can understand the bearing that this has on the Interims content. I suspect that the BoD will still try and target End of Year to be consistent with their comments at the 16th Oct presentation if they can.

By 2020 there will be an Illumina CE-IVD NIPT produced by YGEN and arguably a potential price war between ILMN and TMO so better to do a deal with YGEN to get a stake before then and thereby prevent a 3rd Party offer in interim. Otherwise YGEN can just pay the 6% interest loan and go with ILMN in 2020.

bit of deja vu with the same old figures recycled, same deramping posters dusting off same comments cut and paste from 2 months ago and same promises of big news to come.
Yesterday we saw a lot of PIs work themselves into a state over a report 2 months old. Today and this week we'll see bargain hunters getting a position before a potential TMO deal whatever form it takes (distressed sell, warrant exercise, debt forgiveness) which should see a rerate here. With only a limited window now before end of year quiet period there maybe yet some Christmas cheer here, hopefully.

market reaction starting to look a tad bit overdone given that all these figures were known already and haven't changed...even some of the (deramping) posts on other BBs are cut and paste from 2months ago lol

Sorry Chaps...Didn't check. New Finncap report out...Targets have not changed but commentary more upbeat. Key points below for those who do not have access to portal. Broker targets remain unchanged.

Yourgene Health (YGEN): Corp Interims – strong momentum and EBITDA upgrades Yourgene Health’s (previously Premaitha Health) interim results to 30 September reflect the strong momentum seen over the past few years, with revenues up 45% on the back of a 73% increase in NIPT volumes. A 140bp improvement in gross margins (more to come) and 25% decline in costs drives the business closer to EBITDA breakeven and the new CEO’s stated goal of profitability. With £1m of cost savings identified following the resolution of its IP litigation, and clarity over sales & marketing strategy, we expect this to be achieved in FY 2020 and are upgrading FY 2020 adjusted EBITDA by £0.5m to £0.6m. We maintain a target price of 16p, which implies CY 2020 EV/Sales of 4.9x; justified in our view, given the strong revenue momentum and clear progress towards profitability.

Interims in brief.
In line with the trading statement on 12 October, revenues increased by 45% to £3.9m, driven by a 73% increase in Non Invasive Pregnancy Test (NIPT) volumes, with operating losses down by 46% to £2.5m. Adjusted LBITDA and pre-tax losses fell 29% to -£1.9m (£2.6m) and 4% to £3.3m, respectively. ?

Attention to costs.
Underlying administrative expenses fell 6% to £4.4m, with cash costs (excluding depreciation and amortisation) down 7% to £3.8m. With c.£1m of annualised cost savings being implemented by the end of the current financial year, the company moves significantly closer to its goal of profitability. ?New CEO brings new focus to group. With an increasingly platform agnostic approach for its products and a move to partnership models with both Illumina and Thermo Fisher as Next Generation Sequencing providers, Lynn Rees has redefined the business structure to one focused on strategic growth drivers. At the same time, he is simplifying and normalising the cost structure, to reflect the outlook of the business post-IP litigation resolution, with the overriding goal to achieve profitability. ?

Forecasts.
We upgrade EBITDA for FY 2020 and 2021 by £0.5m to reflect the full realisation of savings being implemented, with the group now expected to become EBITDA-positive during H1 FY 2020. Pre-tax losses are c.£1m higher in FY 2019, reflecting higher finance costs, £0.3m of which relates to the revaluation of the US$ loan. ?Valuation. We retain our target price of 16p, at which level the stock would trade on a CY 2019 EV/sales multiple of 6.3x, falling to 4.9x in 2020. Transactions multiples for companies with novel, clinically relevant genetic tests that were still loss making but have shown clear evidence of revenue traction have ranged from 6-11x EV/Sales and support our valuation target now that the IP litigation has been resolved.

If I am honest between Interim results and trading update provided on 28th September. Been comparing the two reports side by side and most of the test volumes, sales and commentary is identical or similar. Suspect most news; good, bad or otherwise is already priced in. Problem is that some of the figures do not reflect the fundraising after Half Year point undertaken on 28th Sep. Not expecting updated broker rating till after TMO deal

Indian diagnostic company alluded to in RNS is https://www.dnaforensics.in/ I suspect as they use MPS (Massively Parallel sequencing) which is what IONA test is based upon.

That the TMO debt relief/warrant conversion hasn't happened before Interims will mean that the Interims report will be less positive than it could be as the Interims will include sections on P&L, Going Concern Statement and Outlook which naturally would be different if a deal was completed. However agreed that a good deal is more important than a smoother Interims which given volume the market has few expectations about. It is still possible for TMO deal to be announced alongside Interims and given the Finals publication debacle anything is possible.

The TMO deal would naturally have been targeted for the Interims. Although there is potentially time left for this to be delivered by Calendar Year End it could be argued that this will now happen - if it does - in the New Year. The revised broker's rating and report which should have come by early November also could now be also expected in the New Year following the fast approaching Christmas break. In the absence of the TMO deal and no further commercial news essentially the broker rating hasn't changed. YGEN as a consequence has not had an updated broker rating since TDIM change.

It remains to be seen whether TMO go for a deal which reduces the exercise price of their warrant for debt relief which would clear up YGEN's balance sheet with limited benefit to them. Given that these negotiations have been going on since early October they seem to be taking longer than expected - but then again "no deal is better than a bad deal" as many are fond of saying in the UK. Key would be what the exercise price is given the depressed sp and what effect, if any, the dilutive warrants exercise will have. With only 1 Commercial RNS since the Finals the Interims could see just a recycle of the previous forecasts with updates for the £3m funding.

There has been only the same 1 Commercial RNS (new oncology service) since the new CEO's appointment which doesn't match the momentum expected after presenting under the headline "Handcuffs Off". This has had the wasteful effect of nullifying any potential positive momentum from the relaunch and name change done with a baffling lack of PR. This should also be seen in the context of new NIPT CE-IVDs coming to market (e.g. this week saw Perkin Elmer's Vandis) which adds pressure to YGEN to deliver new products (also no progress updates again here despite suggestions at 16th Oct Investors Presentation) in order to potentially justify the higher market capitalisation targets of some holders here.

Hopefully perhaps with or after Interims we should see news flow here. It is also a potential that something further may come out of ongoing TMO negotiations. I suspect at the very least there will be more detail in the Interims on new strategy on Monday though.

All the best to all LTHs

There has been quite a few nice round buys for the last few weeks though which haven't yet triggered a Holdings RNS. I think that the most noticeable thing has been the sparsity of PR and news that has accompanied not this new relaunch. This is following the general lack of news post tthe new CEOs appointment aside from litigation settlement and new oncology service which is different to expectations.

I believe that aside from the potential TMO warrants exercise / debt relief we should have potentially be hearing of new reproductive health products as suggested at 16th Oct presentation. There should also have been a more detailed released of the new organisational strategy accompanying the relaunch plus potentially further commercial progress via licensing and third party agreements.

I would have thought on balance some deal with TMO could be expected before the 3rd Dec

Although the revised broker rating and research notes have been delayed obviously due to the extended negotiations with TMO I (hope) don't think this will come only on the 3rd Dec only - which would suggest next week. It would be quite a big thing for both to land at the same time but the BoD as ever is ready to delight us. It is then a question thereon whether further news is delaying this announcement. Following on from the broker's research notes and potential TMO deal I don't think there will be much else in the Interims that we don't already know given the trading update in the Finals (now 2 months ago).

It is always possible that something further comes out of the negotiations with TMO.

Some decent volume and sizeable trades yesterday, making it the most volume here since mid-Oct. Surprisingly quiet today. Hopefully news soon. Best of luck all LTHs (NIPT &VIY)

Sometimes one observes that after any new listing that after the initial enthusiasm there is a fall. The TDIM change is not a new listing but still it is reasurring to me that after close to two weeks the sp is pretty close to where it was first traded given the absence of commercial news, PR against a backdrop of market uncertainty which has sufferred other shares etc. It seems that there is resistance around this level for holders awaiting expected Corporate action. So you have small PIs going in one direction and then a couple of big trades in the day going in the other which explains the inter-day bounce from 8.2 last week.
https://twitter.com/ChartMill/status/1064752933290602496

Given that the fall from the Finals was a bit overdone, to put it mildly, due to concerns about funding etc. it looks like any deal done with TMO would result in a stronger company carrying less debt with more commercial clout. I am still of the view that the sp is far too low given that the Company regardless of any further news is now fully funded for the rest of the year, the Directors have all purchased / subscribed to shares above the current sp, and the litigation that was causing commercial headwinds has been lifted which would suggest better figures going forward. With potentially 80k tests for 2019, or over 5% of the NIPT market, to have a market capitalisation of just £37m is a bit overtly negative but this should correct itself by the Interims which should see the expected revised broker rating. Hence suggesting that the fall from the teens should be reversed by Year End given that by Interims any residual concerns would have been addressed.

I am still of the view that the Company is well oversold given the over reaction to the Finals and whatever deal agreed would spur the sp and we should be in teens by Year End.

I suspect that there will be some negotiation of the exercisable price for debt relief. However the nice clean buys over the last few days/weeks up to and above 9p plus the Steve Myers and Directors share purchase / subscription at 10p hopefully suggests that this will be higher.

It is clear that the revised broker report and rating was designed to coincide with the new company launch. Although this has been delayed I suspect it is still expected by the 3rd Dec and the belief is that this will be a positive update hence its promotion at recent investor events.

The positives for any deal announced is that for YGEN (and investors) it reduces the liabilities and clears up the balance sheet and reduces some of the pressures for, and arranging, any further funding calls.

I think TMO has also been caught out by the share price falls in the last few years. Although there will be a short-term commercial advantage to this process for TMO the disadvantage would be that it clears up the balance sheet for a 3rd party TO potentially and also helps YGEN to grow organically resulting in ultimately a higher overall TO for them in the future. So it would be doubtful even if a deal was done that TMO would not put in a cheeky offer some time time down the line and not give the space for too much organic growth to happen. It would also be a bit unlikely that a potential TO had not been discussed during some of the negotiations but I suspect that the BoD and those still close to the Company are of the mindset that they want to clear their name.

Florida I have to be honest and confess this is also a bit above my head too so apolgies if I also gotthe wrong end of the stick. MY ASSUMPTION and post was based that these loans were paid for interest-only for a period after which the principal would be paid.

From what I can work out though these warrants are not detachable, meaning that they can be sold on the secondary markets before expiration. These warrants are more like venture debt to allow equipment financing.

As mentioned TMO have the following warrants at the following exercisable prices:
Dec-15 20,325,204 @ 24.6
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77

If TMO paid the agreed exercisable price they would yield £12.8m. That said looking at the RNS and the loan payments secured TMO paid (gave loans) the following:
- Dec 2015: £5.0m
- Sep 2016: £4.0m
- Mar 2017: £2.0m
- Jul 2017 (1st Tranche) and Feb 2018 (2nd Tranche): £5m

In total £16m has been loaned to YGEN via TMO - so not £12.8m - but I could be wrong. Typically these are only exercisable for 8 years and attract an interest rate of 6 per cent per annum payable.

As you said at present these loans sit as liabilities in the accounts and getting TMO to exercise these warrants would remove them as liabilities, and into credits as per 16th October interview, improving the attractiveness to IIs to invest and to 3rd Parties. I think both of our queries is whether the remaining principal would still be paid or wiped out. BEST THING IS ASK INVESTOR RELATIONS. It would be a fairly generous gift for TMO to agree to have the warrants exercised and essentially write off the remaining principal hence assuming that the attractiveness to TMO to agree to a deal is essentially they get a 'haircut' on the exercisable price - so get close to 20% of enlarged share equity - at a further discount with the remaining principal outstanding.

For YGEN (and investors) it reduces the liabilities and clears up the balance sheet and reduces some of the pressures for, and arranging, any further funding calls.

My other comment was that for TMO the disadvantage would be that it clears up the balance sheet for a 3rd party TO potentially and also helps YGEN to grow organically resulting in ultimately a higher overall TO for them in the future.For YGEN although I am sure many close to the Company still believe 50p is achievable you have to ask why TMO would wait to pay a few years to pay 50p when they could buy the whole lot cheaper now or put a cheeky offer in 6 months post this deal.

I am still of the view that the Company is well oversold and whatever deal agreed would spur the sp and we should be in teens by Year End.

A trade plan would be cancelled with a TDIM change but would still be interested to know from Bav when the limit order was cancelled by Halifax given the message said "imminently". I suspect that the Corporate Notice may have been about the Corporate Name change unless pointing to a RNS over the weekend or on Monday morning. Who knows.

The nice clean buys seem to be continuing at regular intervals and have been for a quite a few days despite the dip. Hopefully that points to imminent news. Buying would suggest so.

I would agree that the sp is heavily undervalued given it is below the placing price and Directors/Steve Myers last purchase price which was already discounted for the placing. Also picking up on Forida's point it will be interesting to see the deal agreed with TMO as most of warrants exercise price is above current sp price. So to get warrants plus debt relief would be a great deal. The background buying suggests this maybe pulled off and hopefully at a good exercise price above the current sp. It has been a bit of a roller-coaster to say the least and we cannot ignore the possibility that some other deal maybe brokered with TMO which works to their immediate benefit. In December 2016 Agilent Technologies bought Multiplicom for $72.8m. At the time Multiplicom had $6.5m sales so 11.2x EV/Sales. Hence suggesting that the current sp is now heavily discounted given that YGEN sales should be circa £9m+

Some nice rounds buys have been happening going in the opposite direction of small PIs. Hopefully that points to further news coming and relaunch to start properly. Bored of this now and certainly not been fun since September
ATB to all LTHs

For me I think the key thing that is being negotiated is the exercisable price as the 20m warrants (for £5m loan) have an exercisable price of 24.6p. I still suspect all 95m warrants to be exercised to give TMO a close to 20% stake in the company to then essentially have a blocking vote against a Third Party offer.

But the key thing here would be exercisable price and the debt relief secured as this would drive a re-rate in the short term. With the new CEO in the States negotiating this since mid-Oct one has to think there has to be at least an internal target to get the deal done to be announced with Interims. I suspect though that they could not leave this to the last minute so hopefully we should hear news of this beforehand.

Bit surprised by the weak sentiment following TDIM change and to be honest it is starting to look a bit overdone after the these few months since Finals and if one again disregards that the Company is now fully funded for the rest of the year, the Directors have all purchased / subscribed to shares above the current sp, and the litigation that was causing commercial headwinds has been lifted which would suggest better figures going forward.

Given that test volumes were 50k for 2018 I suspect that with the lifting of the litigation plus Asian expansion this should be over 80k for 2019. The revised trading results YourGene Health should be comfortably over 5% of the NIPT market. The non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) market is expected to reach USD 2.88 Billion by 2021 by when YourGene Health new Illumina CE-IVD will be launched. Investors should recall that in December 2016 Agilent Technologies bought Multiplicom for $72.8m. At the time Multiplicom had $6.5m sales so 11.2x EV/Sales. Hence suggesting that the current sp is now heavily discounted.

The key thing for me would be the exercisable price. If TMO agree to a partial warrant conversion I think it would cover the following warrants:

Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77

Exercising these warrants should give them 74,946,134 shares and if there was no debt relief agreed this should then be exercised at the above prices creating a floor at circa 12p for news flow on reproductive health products and new contracts, NHS etc. to build upon.

That the revised broker targets were targeted for early November means that there has been a background delay but I still believe that the revised broker reports are awaiting material news which should drive a re-rate in time for 3rd Dec which is now less than 3 weeks away. I would be surprised if there was no further contract news, third-party contracts or updates on new products accompanying the Interims.

ATB to all LTHs