Member Info for NicetoMichu

hello..hopefully I spoke too soon yesterday and this potential monster is properly stirring.. hopefully... maybe..

Imagine I get to call Amerisur a puppy instead of a mongrel.. now that would be something.

100p PATSV .. You are a funny guy !

Or are you the one trialling 5 times previously trialled max. dosage levels of Med2002.... resulting in too much blood going from your head to your?

'In the circumstances' 25p sell out in a years + time would be a huge result now, imho.

more constructively and indeed more ironically I propose that POO Brent in the $60's gives this 7 Deal more chance of completing than POO Brent in $70's or $80's - why ? it's Nigeria - and in the $50's more chance again imho..every cloud might actually have a silver lining ..

I propose that everything 'essentially closes' in Nigeria for an awful lot more of the year than Xmas Hazedogg :-)

lovely description of the big fella indeed.. Malcay 6 times a night is no exaggeration, I expect .. in the glasses of red stakes at least, perhaps :-)

I like the guy and his first year bucket list a few years back was very kind to me too.. alas it has been downhill by increment for us both since.. and I can only offer that it's to do with us both assuming past valuations are a fair basis for guesstimating present and future ones.. Alas, I'm slowly but surely coming around to the conclusion that, in the O&G space and beyond, they are not... and the best reason I can come up with for this is when available/near available supply considerably outstrips demand now and into the future then you're skating on thin ice.... and therein shale oil is indeed an elephant in the room..

I normally hold judgement for a few days to see things play out here but I can confess to feeling sad - again -about the s/p here already.. 13p odd here now, in recent circumstances, is frighteningly bad.

Here's hoping though.. not least for good previous q. production figures feedback in in Jan......I can only explain s/p recent performance by offering that it seems priced as though they'll be bad...… hopefully not.. and even if they are .. the s/p is still too low...

Then it’s criminal, literally Excellent news and congrats to all concerned. You've broken my heart for years now Amerisur .. please, please please start to mend it now

Nigeria is indeed a fabulously corrupt country PublicHeel.. Luckily I sold mostly out of Lekoil a while back; that's decently farcical than this... this is somewhat farcical only imho.. and I did sell down a third of my position here between early 30's and late 20's off the back of that view... but, clearly, this could still be good/great too.. and even if Seven deals doesn't complete, as Luck counts says, there are still fine Niger assets.. hopefully Niger is less corrupt than Nigeria ? :-)

(Betting on stocks like these is just like going down the casino. Some people are just too highly self opinionated to admit it.. Place your bets please ladies and gentlemen... )

''Lets not get talking about any problem with Amerisur, the reasons for the SP weakness are clear.''

I very strongly disagree that this is good analysis.

eg This s/p was around 11p/12p when poo -brent - was $85ish and WTI say late 70's ish this Oct..

eg poo went up strongly as this s/p went down strongly over at least TWO AND A HALF YEARS to Oct 2018.

PLEASE look at the two charts ??? A great reverse correlation surely????

Generally, PI money is only small relevant to this s/p. This stock has been very seriously unloved by Institutional Money for 3 + years and remains so today. That may or may not change in the future... hopefully it does.

How wrong the bulls have been here for three years is hilariously farcical.. but the lower it goes on such good fundamentals the more chance they'll be right eventually. HOPEFULLY

If L&G have decided for eg to sell out as near completely as possible by year end then I guess we could go to under 5p here, sadly..

So if there's no company issued news ahead of year end then I'll stick with me plan of not buying any more here in 2018, at least..

I remain extraordinarily interested in knowing if the company consulted with L&G ahead of selling US business - very likely imho - and if they were told that L&G would off back of such a transaction sell down /out - somewhat likely imho - and they still went ahead? If yes management better have one hell of an alternative path already envisaged.. so there's still reasonable hope here imho.. but this is very dangerous ground now. ( a rasie anywhere near these levels is carnage upon the existing carnage )

Afore said, generally AIM is so bombed out as a market that they only way 'longs' seem to be able to make money is having low averages on stocks that are 90 something % per cent off peak.. which is a very hard thing to manage.. and even then some of those stocks are going to go so close to zero - nth emergency raise until no more will be absorbed by the market- that they become a write off .. so I still think there's a half decent chance this could multi bag from single figures .. but 6p to 20p isn't going to help that much alas :-)

(hence, on average, AIM in recent few years can only be described as an indirect tax on the wealthy imho)

and so after many months out - I previously posted on pmo II board only but have given a few months back up on II as poor site rework - and while I've been generally selling down oilers in recent months this is too tempting for me now.. that's not to say it can't go lower than 65p of course - I had an average of 27p and was seriously worried when this went to 19p and could have been going under not too many years ago.. so anything is possible ... but that was poo brent $30 and that was so crazy anything remotely like won't be allowed happen again imho- and so I've started small and would add incrementally more aggressively if further weakness - and would add more up to 80 p too - but I think OPEC will react appropriately today and going forward - they were duped by The Donald on Iran sanctions waivers I believe and nobody likes being duped and so they'll be a lot more focused on $70 Brent going forward - and therefore I think Poo can average around $65+ in 2019 and that means PMO can go back to 100p and maybe even a bit more in coming months imho... DYOR of course: this is a very volatile - aka dangerous - stock!

I'm disappointed this hasn't rallied - much more - strongly recently but not surprised, indeed far from surprised.. an excellent farm out and a potentially great additional resource discovery announcement days/weeks away.. and 13p is where we are at?? It's pathetic in my mind... but I'm so very used of such and glibly offer - for the n'th time here - 'it is what it is'.. and this can of course go strongly down from here on bad Indico drill news.. but hopefully it's good news and it goes up.. even if, in a par for the course fashion, only half as much as might be deemed fair and reasonable..

I still see a take over here asap as my preferred option - even at 25+ p - and/or the BOD doing share buy back or divi asap..

If it’s a nine share trade and then a one share trade and then another one share trade it’s a mm telling fellow mm’s that they’ve just bought a Porsche from mugging Amerisur PI punters .. or 9 followed by 9 shares then 3 or 6 or 7 are all varying priced model no’s within the 911 family .. so they’re comparing how big they’re screwing of PI punters is versus their counterparts 😉

saw this come well off today and checked in here for news - or should I say noise - and almost had a heart attack to see Moneymunch hasn't posted today. I very much hope you don't have a serious illness MM? Or is it you doing all the selling today? Now that would be sad.

My guess is this deal will still complete and I'm holding - half my peak bet granted as I've taken profits along the way - and offer that it's now a buying opportunity for the brave, perhaps.. BUT DYOR, of course,, or heads you win , tails you lose and just place your bet..

you, Mr Scully, would get the death penalty :-)

This dog/puppy was extremely good to me last year and very fortunately I've but given back 15% of my overall profits in this correction (aka collapse).. Thankfully I've only held a few k here through recent times - position now in the hundred as opposed to thousands alas - as I guessed it could be very messy.. But the lower it goes the bigger the bounce into next years drills, hopefully.. so I'd add decently here sub 2p and 'incrementally punchily' on any further again weakness.. life in this doggie yet, via the hope in early 19 at least imho..and maybe one of their drills comes in next year - although I wouldn't be at all surprised if none do - which would see one hell of a rerate..
(Hardcore punter stock though imho.)

a shocker of a day today.. but we're all well used of it at this stage.. Amerisur being Amerisur is deja vu all over again.. 25p s/p might be very hard earned here, not to mind the big no's that folks throw out here regularly.. three plus years of misery for me here.. but hope springs eternal.. :-)

Hi Scruffee, and nice to see you here too.. along the lines of Serica would be great indeed here.. I missed that one.. and I was close to getting involved in late 20's from a tip from a guy I rate over on II.. damn...

I know history is just that but I still can't help having my doubts on amazing performance going forward here though.. but Indico is huge to that end.. this recent deal and a good discovery there would be momentum a top of momentum= very rare for amer and make believers out of many more = strong sustained momentum..

(I've gone pretty chicken on FRR btw.. did well out of it but only a small holding left now.. and it could go huge.. or not..knowing my luck the likes an exxon JV will be announced any day now ? )

posterior :-) but everybody is entitled to their opinion.

(Stobart bid around 40p - or maybe even considered up to 50 odd P max. but were still shy of Flyb def. of 'fair value ' - when the sun was shining - somewhat - during the cynically profitable first half.. now even if Flyb said no because they had a much higher fair value figure in mind, there was no interest from anyone else at that time.. now flyb is clearly struggling and insiders have said a significant restructuring cash injection is required .. so if that cash injection was equi. to say 25p - and it could be up to double that - a share .. and even including a big hitter bidding war... 50p bid would be a minor miracle imho.. but who knows...and here's to minor or even major miracles )

Trump suckered the Saudi's by having them increase production in anticipation of big supply gap from Iran sanctions and then giving significant waivers to various purchasers of Iranian oil.. and nobody likes being suckered, not least by THE 'genius' Donald. Also the Saudi's need $70-$75 Brent to balance their budget. The other two key drivers are Putin and US shale: Putin says $70 Brent is a right number for Russia and US Shale is fine with $60 WTI which is say $65 Brent - including the Donald's ok, although he'd like closer to $50 but such a difference is not enough for him to focus on moaning about imho - and so my guess is averaging somewhere in $65-$75 range for 2019 .. assuming no global recession occurs.. granted for that range to happen the Saudi's especially and Russia somewhat need to cut production in 2019.. and they both will cut imho.. indeed Saudi have said they've already started cutting ( half a million barrels a day from memory but happy to stand corrected) ? and I expect others OPEC'ers to cut too off the back of agreement in G20/upcoming OPEC meeting.. and Russia follow to some token extent at least soon after..

And that should see a good enough 'environment' to allow Amerisur s/p to re rate significantly from current very low levels imho..obviously depending on news especially discoveries it could rerate very significantly .. but it's Amerisur so 30p would be a fine achievement by end of 2019, and 25p an ok achievement... imho..

good luck here sundayroast.. I hope you bring some of that flyb luck over here with you, we sure could do with it..

I'm staying long and strong flyb for now but who knows what will happen with it .. if I hit my targets there - start selling in tranches at 25p and finish selling in 30'sp - I may even put some of the sale proceeds in here.. not least if this was to go lower again.. so I'm happy to wait and see what L&G do between now and year end..

ps : due a bounce indeed .. and has been for a long - long - time !!!!!!!!!

then having IAG looking to buy Flybe too is wonderful news.. Stobart would have to team up with Private equity - eg a NY firm mentioned in article from previous bid - to compete here imho and Virgin would have to have backing of Air France/KLM to have relevant firepower to win imho... always a chance Easyjet comes in too, if IAG are serious.. but an early strong IAG bid might scare them off from get go..

Ps : commercial side might be sold off in due course by a successful bidder but why complicate the bigger picture on small(ish) beer.. winner takes all and sells what the don't want/need later imho..

This could move up meaningfully tomorrow and beyond and in that context if I were IAG I wouldn't be slow in tabling any offer .. this bid represents X % over whatever closing price or y average price could sound less and less punchy as the days go by

Over 40p offer would be nice and meaningfully over even nicer : so STRONG BUY here now from me