Member Info for NicetoMichu

maybe news tomorrow and if yes hopefully it's good.. but it's Nigeria..

From previous RNS, the court case was scheduled for yesterday. Or there was also a chance an out of court settlement could happen any time up to then.. great if anyone can shed any light on whether it went ahead or not and whatever else?

I was half expecting an RNS's today with some sort of update on it. But it's Nigeria....so not surprised there hasn't been one, so far at least..

I agree this court case is important Luck counts.. but not a make or breaker in my mind.. great for reserves and future development/monetisation opportunity though.

The fact this went up decently yesterday and so far today gives me some hope of a good outcome.. but it may just be punters taking a position in hope.

Whatever, I've just added another small tranche here this afternoon. That's probably my lot now.. and my b/e is 13 odd p now... lets hope it's lucky 13p!

DYOR

.. and nicetomeetyou !

I understand in many ways why you're amazed I want the Birdman to stay .. so I'm therefore, in plenty of ways, amazed I want him to stay too but after plenty of reflection I offer:

As I think it was JDAU - and others too I expect - said previously this is effectively a completely outsourced business model and that means Mr Bird is less key to success or failure in plenty of ways. The contractors are key players here and through all the messiness with them so far - and my word there has been lots of messiness - the path and relationships/contracts going forward are effectively fairly well established by Mr Bird now and as the instigator of those contracts there is value in him having some more time to see if fruitfulness can still be achieved here imho.

Also, the bottom line is the amount of gold that is in the ground and the key issue so far is that there seems to be less readily accessible gold in the alluvials than hoped for; and in fairness to Mr Bird in presentation(s) I watched up to two years back he has said such a situation could be the actual case and that the alluvial part of the project is a useful pre main - 'Ard Rock - project only. So one more year should - hopefully - see us get some 'Ard rock gold out of the ground and then shareholders can better judge if he deserves to steer the ship further on again imho..

dog in last year or two.. and, ironically, it's II register read/s extremely well in terms of big names I respect.. but it's Nigeria.. so the rules and targets change regularly and randomly and nearly always not in a good way...

Otakikpo is progressing ok(ish) though, albeit these guys have missed their output targets more or less continuously.. but they're still becoming a decent sized producer by increment from this field alone and including phase two will likely continue to grow production decently, even if not as quickly as targeted, if history is anything to go by... so whatever about their other 'assets' the main current one offers hope here imho..

That said, I'm thankful I sold down more than half my position incrementally thru the ongoing fall.. but I'm now in a position of being very well down on a small ish holding that's left and wondering what to do.. and as other oilers are doing well for me recently I've, starting today, eventually decided to add a - small - tranche or three towards averaging down in hope here.

Also if the court ruling goes with it then I believe there MIGHT be plenty of upside here in 2019

A very dangerous stock though and so one for hard core punters only perhaps..

DYOR of course

I'm with drichi interpretation/hopes for increase in daily output being announced soon(ish) here... and I think this is a company that is strongly on the up now and the target s/p I set myself to sell at a few years back, while having had a circuitous journey in last couple of years granted, can hopefully now be achieved in 2019 : 15p So it's a buy for me at these levels

and Oiloflam and Hawkhead..

of course I'm all for positivity here and uber bulls like Anada etc are very entitled to their opinion but balance is everything on a good B/B and to dismiss the likes of Rhodi is ridiculous and delusional imho.. not least as he has had a full journey here and realises the that the recent very serious dilution at such awfully low s/p levels was a HUGE set back to medium/longterm achievable s/p here, full stop. But it had to be done to save the company and there is now once again plenty of potential / hope from these single figure s/p levels, hopefully... but 25p in 2019 would be a great achievement imho and in a best case 70p sell out would be one hell of a good outcome here imho

Finally, 450's p is one of the funniest things I've heard btw...and I play a lot of AIM shares and read / posted on hundreds of different shares .. and that is right up there imho.. (towards credibility in that dismissal, I offer that in total, I'm very luckily decently up on playing this share so far... and there are perhaps very - very - few posting here that can say that.. I'd guess)

and this has indeed ticked down recently and may well continue to do so.. sad and shocking and depressing..

But I'm for Mr Bird staying another year and trying his best to positively progress this project.. and turning the s/p around meaningfully is reasonably readily still possible imho.. but this has been my worst ever bet for all sorts of reasons, and therefore I deserve to suffer consequences and so I hope for the best while understanding I might lose my full bet here (25k gbp) and that's life on AIM ..

Generally, AIM is hardcore gambling and you shouldn't bet more than you can afford to lose and you should understand you can of course lose the full bet you place.

Why?

Because AIM is pretty full of: a) Shorters Killing Fledgling Companies and/or b) Lifestyle Executives and/or c) white collar crook executives and/or d) Dreamers/Wishful thinker Executives (B being the biggest problem here imho with a dollop of D too)

Thanks guys.

I agree with Tony - wow !!:-) - that this can go to around .7p.. obviously hopefully not...but they really need this t/o in my mind.. it's a brutally low margin space they play in and while turnover may well be over 50m this year it used be over 100m its early listed days.. and in this low margin game large and growing turnover is crucial..

This has been listed for about 5 years now and, as mentioned by a fellow poster, came to market about 56p - not 5.6p but 56p :-) - don't forget.. so it was at best a struggling business in recent years and maybe even a failing one. That said they are at last bringing costs down at least getting towards 'as necessary' now.. and hopefully that can continue.. and so they might still have a chance on their own if this deal falls thru.... also the last two quarters being profitable is encouraging, but there have been a few false dawnS here already on achieving sustainable profitability, so lets see at least q1 19 before getting excited..

ps unconditional completion date means in my mind they either fully complete or walk away by May.. and so if it gets close to deadline and no news on the completion this could be a hairy s/p ride.. But I'm holding the smallish remaining position I've kept.. and would add a bit more if this goes close to 1p .. and am open to trading a chunk of my position too.. that has worked decently so far for me.. and generally, I still have a good feeling about this t/o completing too... and it will rally significantly if it does... all imho

Tony...although a - good - few less posts in 19 would be much appreciated Tony :-)

Oh well on the delay. The race is long and in the end only with yourself. (and yes this could fall thru in end and my guess is they wouldn't pay even a half decent fraction of the remaining $13.5m if it did, hence why the s/p has now gone very low and can of course go lower.. but my guess remains this will complete in the end.. and I might be tempted to top up if this goes towards 1p.. it may not and hopefully it doesn't.. but this is AIM etc.. )

anything can of course happen and 10p take up would be great silverknight.. but if s/p was around these levels or lower then 10p would be a hell of a thing in my mind and unlikely.. ideally the s/p would rally from even a bit from here ahead of any raise.. but it might well not.. and L&G or such like need to stop selling now.. or else SUB one of the possible lows I mentioned previously - 5p - could readily happen..

as mentioned previously I'll give some serious thought to buying some more here in January..

the problem that arises again and again in such situations is that many parties are aware that a raise is being looked for/ is coming and so the s/p usually goes way - way - down so the big participants can either average down massively or get newly involved at the lowest possible levels if they participate (e.g. I see some read across with recent FUM play out) ...but how each II plays their hand in the knowledge they 'now' have varies for a multitude of reasons eg Woodford vrs L&G here..

I wish I'd started buying these at 6.5p instead of 65p...As I mentioned previously significant dilution at very low s/p levels would be misery a top of existing misery for longterm shareholders imho.... oh well.. you place your bets and you take your chances.. and the company has to secure additional funding to have a chance of future success.. so it is what it is.. and if drugs gain licences the future could still be bright here.. but a 10 gbp future s/p target a few years back might be equiv to what ? ...say a 1 pound or much less future target, after dilution at or around these levels

Malcay doesn’t have target prices against his stocks in the bucket lists .. and while he mentioned sundry targets on his favourites on the likes of Vox markets etc in 2017 he mentions them less and less if at all these days.. as the prices were going nowhere near his targets and often coming away more and more again from them ...and he perhaps now understands that versus 2012-14 prices it’s a whole different world out there now .. and not in a good way.. but I have heard him say 30 p easily doable here a year and a half plus ago but the s/p was higher then than now .. A bad day today but it’s only one day .. would be disappointed if this went into 12’s again though .. and whoever disagreed with me when I said a base of 15 had not been established last week might want to think again.. this stock remains a ‘tricky’ one .. but it’s fundamentals are getting stronger .. and that from a good existing base .. so hopefully common sense will prevail over the future piece and this re rates into 20’s at least in 2019

on Vox Markets and beyond.. please

I know a lot has been said on the awful s/p performance here previously and I understand the AIM O&G sector is having a torrid time - and I do know this is Investment sector actually but it's an O&G investment and so being similarly tarred - generally... and while somewhat unfairly so here imho I do think that getting the message out there better on the progress and potential here needs to be focused hard on and approached with more gusto..

Also gas prices have done better than Oil and so that makes this more compelling again from here/now..

But I'm sticking with this more because it's so low now than anything positive else.. and given the assets/potential that shouldn't be my first reason for sticking in ..therefore it feel like something extra / new needs to be done here in 2019, not least as he's still far from cast iron on Italy in 2020... more cleverness around assets come to mind? (partnering/selling etc)

If the Jan q4 update gives low production figures I expect it will still have a drag on this s/p .. but, given some excellent bigger picture occurrences here recently, considerably less of a drag than it might otherwise have had,,, hopefully/imho.. but maybe Q4 production figures will actually be decent or good and that could readily spur this s/p a bit further ahead.. which would be great.

Generally, I was looking for a new base of 15p to be well established here this week.. I'm disappointed it hasn't been but I'm excited about the future here for the first time in a long time .. that in itself is great in my mind. And even if s/p has to be dragged up kicking and screaming - which if history is anything to go by etc - then so be it.. as long as it continues to go up !

my p/f looking a bit sad too sliverknight and then a bit sadder again too ;-) (fortunately 16 and 17 were good to me)

'no great urgency to buy right now' is very diplomatically put by you.. I say a liquidity crisis across at least half of AIM (approx. half the approx. 1000 stocks on AIM are Market Cap 25m GBP or less and half of those are under 10m MC.. and lack of NEW long money is now a huge problem with many of these - it was a significant problem most of time since AIM get go in 95 and then a big problem and now a huge imho.. but that can change .. hopefully - and relatively small amounts of shorting and/or selling is meullering these small/micro cappers or even decimating them in some cases .. and there are a whole lot of off the back consequences that are exacerbating further the problem.. market maker behaviour, and Corp broker and Nomad behaviour and also II behaviour.. often born out of survival necessity more than greed/evil )

If l&g stop selling at say 5% holding or thereabouts I have a theory on their thinking .. but let's wait til NY to see what actually happens in this financial year .. if they sell out completely the theory is irrelevant :-) (but may or may not have some read across for Woodfood's holding)

funny line on counter terrorism in fairness Simber..

I say lets keep it friendly.. sure there's an awful lot of repetition - but some good articles/colour posted from Moneymunch too - but it's not that busy a board and so scrolling thru sundry posts quickly is easy whatever.. eg at least tony b's are short as well as deja vu all over again factorial :-)

ps: it's very hard to find new/meaningful info here and an empty bulletin board can be bad too .. my guess is most of us still think this t/o will complete eventually and we sit patiently on our bets in hope.

you're lucky to have a relatively small investment here -I gather - silver knight - with an average of 17p.. if I was in your position I'd average down too.. but - as previously mentioned - it's a bigger/trickier decision for me ...and my guess is most PI's here are sadly in a - even far - worse position than me

Agree it is a very insignificant holding to L&G on the macro scheme of things...hence them selling down/out at these 'ridiculously' low prices and absorb whatever loss - a per cent or two max. of total value of whatever fund(s) they hold it in? - without any problem...... and extending that logic : why bother going from 15% to say 5%... just go to 0 ahead of this year end accounting and be done with it is -sadly - my best guess..

And you do always wonder if they know something that we don't.. but, from my experience, often they don't and indeed altogether II's are amongst the worst players on AIM.. and hence they play it less and less..which is causing huge liquidity issues - not only not buying in but worse again selling out 'longterm' already held positions as witnessed here - in itself on AIM ....

ps; I dont think Mtph will go under in 2019.. but unless it goes meaningfully up that's reasonably academic to most with existing bets here... and if they raised in 2020 at anything less than say 20p it's likely more academic again..

my guess is it's -very - likely L&G still selling.. An ongoingly now very sad situation. And it could get even sadder again if they sell down further / out completely..If it's L&G, I guess that their year end accounting is a factor too .. so hopefully they'd complete their selling by end of this month.. if Vivika's - 29th Nov posted - analysis is close to correct and they still had around 7% left around end Nov. time and if they are selling out completely this could go much lower.. eg sub 5p or maybe sub 3p .. but hopefully they'll still hold say 5% ish of the co's shares...This L&G selling may leave Woodford as the dominant II player here and miles and miles under water.. what he did about that situation may be a big factor here in 2019.. hopefully good for s/p by averaging down thru buying in open market but not necessarily good.. look at Lombard Odier/FUM for eg..for anybody like myself who has been in her for more than 1 year this has been an appauling bet and there are always finiancial consequences to making appauling bets..especially ion AIM... it's gambling and you can of course lose all you bet..