Member Info for NicetoMichu

it has been mentioned more than once here that they own one plane outright IQ and part own to varying degrees 26 planes. ( they lease a lot of their planes, I don't know if there is a an end of lease buy option too.. maybe.. but the them market value of the plane will decide that buy figure and the lease companies are no fools..)

The balance sheet gives plenty of colour on balance sheet items and has been talked about plenty .. off balance sheet is very important too imho and has been talked about somewhat too granted but is an area I'm very interested in: Cash injection required for restructuring is a key item here...and it's very hard to guesstimate that.. and value of airport runway slots is very important too imho.. Heathrow already talked about.. regional UK has been a little too and seems very mixed value...maybe Manchester being the cherry in that space . Paris Orly has some value too .. the one that interest me and has had little mention is Schiphol .. that's the third biggest airport in Europe and I read flyb owns 2% of the slots there.. please correct me on this and/or elaborate on this ? (ie Anybody - with genuine industry knowledge.. so no feedback required from the other 99% of participants on this bb please :-) - could give any sort of value guesstimates to Schiphol then much appreciated ?)

PS: For fun and as everyone else is having a go : if there is a bidding war here with deep pocketed participants - eg EZY and IAG more so than Virgin and Stobart imho but at least the latter two going against each other- are part of that then I'd guess that up to 45p offer might be achievable.. if no 'meaningful' bidding war then as little as 25p might even be considered fair and reasonable by the BoD imho.

agreed and no I wouldn't Silverknight.

Another interesting post George - Inn, thanks. That said, you've been submitting such interseting posts for a long time now and thru that time this has capitulated, then capitulated further and then further again.. And I expect you'll need multi bagging from here for this not to be a horrendous bet by you? But it could of course multi bag from here.. because anything can happen.. including zero.. place your bets please ladies and gentlemen..

Thanks Silverknight..

I'm a patient speculator, but have only ever been in one stock for more than 5 years - Ashley House.. which might even be starting to come good now.. but I have said that a lot more than once in those 7 years, so far - and have no problems being involved here for a few more years.. but a stock that has so far gone down decently north of 95% since coming to market, 'confidence' reasons or otherwise, but a few years is a mongrel of a mongrel, full stop. This can of course go to zero.. or, hilariously, could 10 bag and still be a bad medium term performer.

ps: patient 'investor'?... this is little to do with investing imho it's casino gambling at it's finest :-)

Indeed wuffle, the small mid cap O&G producers sector generally is rated extraordinarily/shockingly poorly at this time generally. sadly.. of course recent huge decline in poo has added insult to injury but in truth even when Brent went into $80's the s/p's did not re rate anything like they should have had (by historic comparisons).. I'm long a bunch or oilers and it has ben an extremely - surprisingly - disappointing/painful journey this year.. with the benefit of hindsight, the only explanation I can come up with so far is that in the round- not least because of shale - Institutional money - which is the real difference maker- perceives there to be an abundance of supply versus demand for at least the foreseeable future and on top don't trust management as a rule in oil companies the world over.. dividends/share buybacks from profits rarely being forthcoming from profits historically - bar 2015/16 when industry on its knees granted - and now.
Ouch

and well played the BoD in a deal making sense, if little else.. but at least they have one strength and so focusing on that and letting partners deliver on the ground seems to give us a chance of a come back here (the acreage they have acquired on the cheap in recent years is another eg of good deal making, in fairness.. more deals to come I expect including an outright sale of the company within 3 years, perhaps.. with probably a 'good' price achieved too, as history indicates management are able in that capacity.. )

But the s/p rise so far today is abject versus this news.. so to get this s/p back up to even semi decent levels may well take an awful lot.. which is very sad really.. and the goodness of any overall sale deal would of course be impacted by a low s/p.... so even remotely close to fair value needs to - somehow - happen here in coming months/year(s).. and then a sale deal concluded, please.

I can only do my tiny bit to help and so will now do a few more top ups here in coming hours/days/weeks - just done one in 11's actually - as I see clear light at the end of tunnel now.

This is one of the most undervalued shares around imho : STRONG BUY

The correlation between b/s profit and or loss and actual cash flow/burn is a complicated more than a simple one

Seems like it's STARTING to get interesting now, thankfully.

As many have already pointed out any bid price comes a lot down to whatever capital injection might be required.. the thing that astounded me most on my reading around flybe in recent weeks was that story of 'an insider saying' a 100m capital injection required.. I can't get my head around such a large figure being required and indeed still don't believe it is.. 50-60m max is my guess and hopefully meaningfully less and that could be injected on a phased basis.. indeed if flyb didn't get taken over I was thinking 15m- 20m raised each year from asset sales for 3 years might see then ok.. I say this in the context of at least 40+p bid by Stobart but 8 months ago - I think it was decently higher than 40p btw, or at least they were prepared to go decently higher but the BOD's valuation was too far away still - and things can't have deteriorated that extraordinarily in that short time - eg they had a profitable first half ending September - and it was unlikely in my mind that Stobart would have valued the company at 40/50p then if there was a very large capital injection required on top.(imho)

Generally, I've had a go at guessing offer price(s) previously in single and multiple bid scenarios and will not bother changing my mind now.. but will offer that the real fun might only begin in a multi bidder scenario.. and three is more than 50% better than 2 bidder in my mind.. So Stobart and maybe IAG and a n other left fielder please step forward now too! (ps while I guess they won't bid themselves, the fact that Ryanair are said to value 'parts' - eg runway slots in various airports- of flybe makes me again think that the off balance sheet value here is a lot higher than many understand.. and on that note has anybody even mentioned SCHIPHOL? )

I hear you in some respects silverknight.. apart from L&G selling down being a massive red flag :-) Even if they're doing it for reasons nothing to do with not believing in Midatech, they're smashing the s/p and amazingly could readily smash it much further again, even from these ridiculous levels.

I too could throw more at this, but good money after bad is coming to mind at this moment..

Also this is a bit of a personal bet for for me.. as mentioned already I bet mostly in O&G and know little or nothing about pharma/biotech.. but have had a bit of luck in a few semi random previous punts. ironically this is the least random of my bets in the space and by far my worst... I originally came across this stock via printing off Woodford's fund holdings.. I liked the chart perspective on it - at 60 off p - and did a tiny bit of research and read ''A recent pre-clinical study suggested MD119 may be more efficacious than sorafenib, the current standard of care'' The last drug my father - who died of cancer in 2012 - took in his life was sorafenib and instead of buying him an extra few weeks /months it didn't help at all.. indeed as his body couldn't cope with it he died 7 days after starting taking it.. and I thought well it's written I buy this stock.. and even if I loose the lot it might help Midatech help someone else down the line.. that was a 5k bet .. I'm now in for 10k and way down and feel I've done my bit.. or maybe I add another 5k between 5p and 2p and it was meant to be that it 10 bags from there .. but my dad and I didn't get on that well .. so maybe my bit for science is meant to be 15k... and my dad who was an engineer and hated bankers and speculators - I was one and am now the other - will have the last laugh.. what to do ...what to do :-) ?
(my thinking right now is I'd wait until below 5p before deciding if I bet anymore.. maybe I won't get to bet anymore, indeed hopefully...I think)

fair/good point silverknight on what's happening across AIM.. it's a car crash generally and has been going that way for a while.. hopefully something changes soon..

Indeed on L&G selling Viveka.. and perhaps they're selling again today...maybe their year end accounting might allow them absorb any/all write off here in an acceptable to them fashion..

Generally, if L&G keep selling down here, even to the extent of say half their remaining holding this could go to low - or very low - single figures imho.. I'm really shocked they are doing this at this time.. AND As a major shareholder, I expect Midatech management consulted with them ahead of the US business sale and if L&G said they'd sell down off the back of such a sale happening then I'd be truly shocked by management going thru with the sale..Altogether i'd be stunned by the actions of both parties, in truth.. and have yet to decide which one I'm more stunned by..

hopefully the madness stops soon, else perhaps bold NEW entrant buyers at sub 5p should reap rewards silverknight... As for the rest of us : catastrophic. perhaps

this truely shows the riske we take by playing in such names

Lonmin 'put' itself up for sale o'shea and if current sale to Sibanye Stillwater falls thru at last(ish) minute I think it will somehow survive - as in stay quoted on LSE/JSE sense - for another few years at least.... but I think the sale will go thru and so we wont find out of it would have survived for a while - or good while - longer.. (PIC manages SA government monies mostly and has ensured LMI stayed afloat in recent years eg massive participation in rights issue etc and might do so going forward as redundancies on that scale in that regions unpalatable etc.)

Valuing part owns assets on a balance sheet is one thing Scully, owning assets outright a far better thing in all sorts of ways, not least when you need to free up cash relatively quickly :-)

(80% chance of failure vs 20% buyout likelihood you say o'shea) I say 30% chance of insolvency in 2019 here - and a smallish fraction of that in 2018, which might be useful to punters in here for a short-term buyout scenario - and a combined 70% chance of buy out at some premium to current s/p OR survival on their own into 2020's

Generally, it's all a game of serious chance imho. Good LUCK to all players, whatever their persuasion.

Good to hear a big bear case here o'shea.. but while I think it's a tricky situation for them I also think it's not as bad as you make out, and not as good as plenty of rampers here make out either, granted (ps please elaborate on 120m WHOLLY owned assets Oilbell? property maybe £25m ? but do 26 of the 27 planes they 'own' not have varying levels of debt still outstanding on them? What else please?)

They are 'haemorrhaging' cash in the winter months only o'shea, so come March they are back into their money generating season

Also there are intangibles that have real value : happy to stand corrected but I think come 2020 Heathrow slots they were 'gifted' towards guarding against bigger player monopolies vest to fully owned and so can be sold on - HSBC value them at 40m + - also they have enormous numbers of prime slots in many big UK regional airports that have value.

Also each year that goes by they own and more of their part owned 26 planes and that gives them flexibility to manage cashflow better in a variety of ways, including more subtle ones eg retiring loss making routes more quickly and reconfiguring fleet size to optimal levels more quickly

And there are other factors here than can go either way and if the right way help a lot over time.... sterling can of course strengthens from low levels vrs dollar or PoO can stay in $60's etc.. granted the opposite can happen too of course... but guessing cable and poo is extraordinarily hard... but bulls could equally be right too..

Finally, this company turnover of approx. 750m and its showing a relatively small loss at a cyclically tricky time so that always gives you a chance of turn around .. if there's enough will... and, as flybe are strategically significant to the regional economy of the UK and the British Government will be very mindful of this, there will be enough will imho.

And it has just gone down another 15 per cent this afternoon ..what’s happened/happening here is beyond shocking (for me.. and I bet on oil and gas mostly and have seen endless carnage .. this is beyond that .. already 95 per cent down club member and heading for 99 per cent down club membership )

this was over 300p soon after coming to market.. the decline here is factorially outrageous/disgraceful....sure AIM is an illiquid car crash but the BOD/management have performed very badly too imho.. here's hoping the new guy can turn this around.. indeed, as per other posters here useful insights, I agree the co does not seem to be in that bad shape as I type (IMHO) and thankfully no cash raise required for perhaps a year plus (IMHO).. but, lets be clear, if and when they have to raise, even if less than 10m gbp and even if the s/p has by then doubled from current levels, and no matter what success comes after, that's dilution into oblivion for the vast vast majority of existing share holders - most are diluted close to oblivion already granted - not least II's...so having a even half way decently low average price is my only chance here I believe and so I fired my third and second last bullet here recently..

PS ; I see you've had some fun recently with immupharma silverknight.. I hope you sold some at 20p :-) .. similar can happen here readily.. and indeed has done earlier this year.. if this doubles again I'll sell a larger tranche -as opposed to a smallish tranche last time - of my holding this time though ..

Looks like fine sleuthing DavidFDO, very well played. That said, as Doc mentioned, they could be trucking because of some pipeline issue(s).. so best we wait for the company to give clear feedback.

If production is indeed well down and it has not been quickly disclosed then the BOD have put another nail in their coffin.. and, alas, the s/p could of course suffer further - and further again on duster(s) - imho.. although at this low already one would hope not very much further; but sentiment is massive on AIM imho and the trust in management is already little and sentiment already bad here.. to further compound that would be - very - bad and sad... but very hopefully little/no further meaningful s/p declines here, as many medium / long term holders are already suffering awfully here.. and even 2018 first time investors suffering meaningfully now, I expect..

Well said gelston, Any shares can go down as well as up - or even, in current environment, up as well as down :-) - so a good BB always has both positive and negative views imho .. and participants being respectful of both ! (And, in addition, one thing I think as good is very active posters challenging themselves to do fewer posts, with perhaps more content in those fewer)

I'm very much hoping for a takeover here as it's a hard road back to II Investment money appealing for flyb - that far more than pi money is required for s/p's to go meaningfully imho - on its own from here imho.. but I still think it can travel that road, if needs me.

And I'm very much hoping for multiple bidders for a takeover here.. Stobart is still very likely to bid in my mind and Easyjet and IAG reasonably likely to bid.. and if one of those two does then the other becomes more likely to too imho...of course left field bidder(s) always a possibility too..eg private equity. ( or stobart in conjunction with such a deep pocketed backer ) If stobart were to be the only bidder I see less than 20p offer as likely, and maybe considerably less: it's an awful lot about the level of capital injection now required, I think .. I've read 100m number for that here but i think that's on the large side.. but a bit north of 50m wouldn't surprise me.. and obviously that would bring down any offer price significantly.. If multiple bidders I guess/hope north of 20p is achievable..

thanks Garydav2 .. now that you mention it, I do remember you saying that but I was hoping it was more than 1 FULLY owned.. your figure makes sense to me though... as they would've downsized the fleet more quickly already to their strategically optimal plan if the I owned more outright, I expect. ( and short term cash flow spotlight would not be on brightly, if at all)

Generally, I still believe in flybe strongly - and have a decent holding to back that belief up - not least, as it's of strategic importance to multiple parties: bigger operators eg Easyjet, IAG.. smaller operators eg Stobart...regional airport operators and the UK Government becuae of it's key status in UK regional connectivity .. so it's unlikely to go under, whatever imho.. and I expect it will be taken over in reasoably short order... but a 'good' price will only be achieved if multiple bidders imho.. and whover buys will have to inject a dollop of liquidity and further restructure it.. how big that dollop is will directly effect bid price(s), of course

where did you get this figure of them owning 27 planes outright JH77? I've been looking for a sure steer on such a figure for a while.. If correct, it's a very important figure to me.. strategically they've stated they want to downsize the fleet a bit still whatever; and the future trend seems to me be leasing/lease with an option to buy over up front buying from manufacturer .. so flybe selling some of its FULLY owned planes in short order if needs be renders any possible short/medium term cash flow issues minor and moves them towards more on leasing trend to boot?

I’ve been very patient with this and will continue to be .. I’m proud to have this company in my p/f and 15 p remains a target I believe in

I loved that post Baysilhope . Thank you. I find The Donald as entertaining as his being President of USA shocking ie extremely :-) Ps: I wholeheartedly agree with the Bulls here: Amerisur will go up meaningfully in the end .. from what level to what level I’ll pass on though ..