Member Info for NicetoMichu

good understanding of this co. no doubt docisacroc.... yours - and others here - posting here shows fine knowledge of Amerisur.. but $18m of acquisitions is tiny - tiny - on a scheme of things.. indeed someone kindly offering to buy amerisur for say usd 350 m would register somewhat but not significantly in that macro point I'm offering... imho..

generally, very admirable of you and plenty of others to defend your 'baby' .. but the share price is king and that speaks for itself. Sentiment is very important on AIM and the sentiment towards this co. has been awful for a long time now.. including thru an very strong upturn in POO ..and a companies management are ultimately accountable. But sentiment can change quickly so here's hoping..

Good balanced MACRO posting Stockable btw.. I'm from your school of thinking and expect plenty more are too..

this year, especially? What would be extremely helpful imho is someone somewhere making an offer that comes even close to meeting a valuation that the directors believe their O&G co. is worth.. even if it failed it might do even small wonders for other stocks in the sector too.. the lack of M&A thru the downturn was understandable to me but I'm genuinely surprised so little this side of pond this year, so far, at least. Amerisur is one of my favourites for some action in that sense.. but even if a n other small/ mid capper O&G er happened that has a ripple effect then fine by me too.. and I hold about 15 of em towards covering bases :-) (Amerisur and President are the most annoying to me granted) Again, a cheeky 20 something p bid here, even if unsuccessful, would be fine by me.

fair enough docisacroc..

Are there decent sized - II or beyond - holders beyond RH whose holding has declined in and around the last 12 or 18 months for eg ? And what are the shorting disclosures by II's indicating in/around that time too ?

I read s&p perf versus O&g subsector in s&p a while back and quoted from memory Luckcount.. but my memory may be off as, looking at a wti chart, its more like 3 years ago vrs today for that 35% WTI gain.. apols.. but the general point is still an opinion that may have validity.. as may your Brexit related opinion below .. we're all entitled to our opinions....and your language in dismissing mine is inappropriate..imho..
(btw many US stocks /sectors by most all metrics are much more richly valued than many UK stocks, on AIM and beyond imho eg pharma/biotech)

imho..

There are macro issues in O&G sectors globally that are undermining sector s/p performance across the board

eg US, which is booming in many shapes and forms and is the key global driver: The s&p oil Index has underperformed the wider market by 42% over last 4 years in spite of - including huge oil price vol. granted - a gain of 35% in WTI in that time .. Why ? Because Institutional FM's, having been burned for a long time, no longer trust oil industry exec's generally: the pay themselves hugely and rarely deliver on their promises, not least overspending on exploration versus their 'well presented tight efficient budget's' and on top that exploration usually underdelivering versus actual exploration expenditure in terms of reserve grow out.. So FM's say dividends or share buy backs are the only thing that's left that you can do to make us trust you enough to invest more in your sector.. and the O&G co's, while endlessly talking the talk, don't actually do that .. instead they pay themselves more and over spend more on exploration etc.. and hence, sadly, where we are.. but that can change not least the lower s/p'd go and the longer POO stays high the more tempting buying becomes.. and then herding can happen on way up like it has on way down..

You can apply the above reasonably directly to Amerisur.. what shares RH is drip selling should be insignificant on the scheme of things here.. it's simply that there is nobody who can meaningfully buy - i.e, Institutional FM's - is buying, so far... even at the seemingly bargain under 12p.. but things can change quickly.. IF current drilling program successful ( if not, single figures is,sadly, possible here imho)

not least by 'johnnybgoode' on the placing should have been undertaken very quickly after news on undertaking phase 3 alone, and 'healthyreturns' on it needing to succeed strongly at 7p to give the s/p a chance to recover even somewhat from here.

JB clearly had no idea how low this could go on that news and even if he/broker started sending out feelers in mid teens on what price could be achieved to get a placing away for a relevant amount of cash he/we was/were already then in s/p further big collapse nailed on trouble.. it was always going to be walked down by LO and others so they could get a large allocation of shares at a very low price indeed.. towards averaging down to a half respectable level in LO's case..etc.

My GUESS from here: The raise will be successful ensuring the s/p doesn't go much lower than 7p, if lower at all .. and the s/p comes back somewhat in early to mid 2019 or maybe even in 2018.. a Q2 19 target of 15p is not unreasonable here imho... you then get into the realms of how successful phase 3 will be/is etc..

system error.. reboot ..

to do this now at this price is awful.. there should be serious consequences for the incompetence shown here, hopefully there will but this is AIM

My sympathies to those who are being meullered here .. while I've been lucky here I'm getting similarly mullered on XTR.. such occurrences are very widespread and growing on AIM, alas... generally, AIM is a cesspit and fewer and fewer players are playing and there is serious liquidity issues off the back .. and that makes it a bigger cesspit again.. a seriously bad downward spiral is occurring..and that's in an okay macro environment with decent markets generally.. when a downturn comes...

sad really.. around 10m market cap. now: it must reach over done at some level around here ? And one of the big potential issues has gone away here for at least a good while too: even including strong burn, it doesn't need to raise in short to medium term now ..problem with AIM is unless there is chance of positive news coming soon the s/p can readily relentlessly tick down to 'obscene' low levels..

I'll do a top up at some stage here I expect but, will hold off for a while yet.... as alas, from bitter experience, it can always go lower .. and lower again..

Generally, imho there are serious liquidity issues for many AIM sectors/stocks currently...and that's causing more players again to sell up/give up, further perpetuating the problem.. Beaufort client monies unfreeze may or may not help.. but at some point of extreme lowlessness a stocks s/p comes compelling enough to get buy money involved again.. even II's who see AIM as full of lifestyle co's and broadly un-investable must get tempted in on individual stocks at some stage.. hopefully that stage is soon here.. even one II getting half decently involved here could see s/p move well into 20's/30's quickly.... imho..

Auson, please correct my maths then: oil fuel is approx. $96 pb - I think ?- and 159 litres pb = 60 p litre at approx. current spot prices

If flybe hedged at 26p - seems amazingly low but great if it is ? - then that proves my point instead of invalidating it?? My point being they're saying that higher fuel costs today are one of the factors undermining their profitability? I'm saying with the benefit of their hedging it's not a big factor in underlying their profits at all.

In answer to the other question; it was never explicitly stated what the first and attempted revised bid(s) was/were but can be very widely guesstimated to have been was somewhere in the 50p to 100p range(s).

Here's to a takeover / merger here asap.

another shocker.. and this shameful board had the audacity to tell Stobart that their bid of multiples of this evenings share price was unacceptably low !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To add to the afore poster lists of flybe incompetences I offer that their fuel hedging strategy didn't allow flybe take decent advantage of whatever aviation fuel equiv. of $30 p.b Brent was a few years back as they hedged forward multi year in advance .. so surely they therefore must now have hedged oil contracts at $40-$50-$60 pb aviation equiv. in play now .. perhaps they do and are using high fuel as somewhat of an excuse to cover over other messes.

if stobart aren't allowed back re bid for however long - or don't want flybe anymore - please some other player take us out of our misery here asap .. even for 30-40p fine by me please... to get me out of this dog around even

Jasehem.. II’s who bought here 2-3 years ago would likely be very - very - sad/hurting right now .. and perhaps the FM who called ir a buy in 30’s moved on now ..the execution here in last 3 years has been shockingly bad .. but who knows what the future holds .. it’s all a game of chance that plays out to random path theory ..

I have a mod sixed position - for me - here and it's in deepish trouble now and i'm as shocked as any of you by the extent of this s/p decline.. and no doubt Mr Dawson is too.

I guess people are thinking a raise at such low levels is likely and will be highly dilutative.. I hugel hope he can find a way of avoiding this outcome.. asset sales is one but that will take time.. of some clever loan financing based on assets or future revenues etc.. but, whatever, it all takes time and so he needs to be given time to sort this out.. but if things don't improve here by mid 2019 I think he should step aside.

(Towards balance: Romania is live / cash generating in reasonable or even good time.. and much of progress in Italy and Spain is out of his control.)

The market is brutal towards co's like this currently .. especially so given a fine POO/G backdrop.. could he reasonable have forseen such brutality towards PXOG s/p against Ok - but granted not good though - progrees by the co. in 2018 and good underlying commodity prices ?

I don't think so ... let's not forget that few of us here foresaw this capitulation .. else we would have never bet on this dog in the first instance ..or run away when spiked to .40's a while back.. etc

you make a lot of good calls, in fairness … and I hope all goes well generally …

what levelS are you looking for to consider starting selling some/ some more.. etc. ?

Best wishes to you... and all the long suffering here

Michu

thanks and no doubt - and in keeping with sundry last 3/4 posting here - some of which will turn out to be accurate and plenty of which will not, I expect.

Psychologists say it's good to think/dream positively in life and they no doubt will be uber proud of those targeting 60- 80 - 100p by 2020/21 etc here.

Meanwhile, in the real world, I'm aiming to buy another small tranche somewhere in the 11's p shortly.

If this, one way or other - eg including M&A - gets back to 20 ish p later in 2018 and 35 ishp in 2019 it would be an extraordinarily good outcome imho . I say this because it's a long, long way back to respectability for this co. from where it now stands in the minds of many, not least II's, as witnessed by their lack of buying even at these perhaps/hopefully incredibly low prices.

Still, with sundry drilling ongoing now, and a decent start seemingly/perhaps - flow rates can go down as well as up on early stage new discoveries of course - already achieved, there is reasonable hope of s/p growth soon here imho.. that said it wouldn't surprise me at all if I was buying a follow on tranche in 10's p either ..hopefully not .. as I have more than enough of these doggy shares already and would love to see the s/p go up asap, for a change .

wuffle,
they were one of the few companies with cash to spend when no one else had and the price of rigs contractors, permitting etc was on the floor.... i'd forgive them being cautious for a year or two but 2017 no and 2018 is nearly out and they're only early on into this drilling programme... sure there were issues to be sorted ahead of drilling or pipeline upgrade etc - the original pipeline took far longer than expected too - but they could have progressed those far better in the quiet time of 15 and 16.. what else were they doing then.. Rex Harbour situation is but another of their abjectness/arrogance .. hopefully a fair few dusters to come is not another.. not only is there now no benefit of doubt for them, there is so little confidence/trust left in management that an overall drill programme very average result at very best is already priced into s/p.. imho

Ongoingly many fine posts with much food for thought here. Thanks all.

The RH issue is all but dead now imho and alas was another example of the BOD doing a bad job, but this issue is one of the smaller ones in my mind. The huge issue I believe is the s/p highs of around 2014 had plenty of anticipation of quick and strong future output grow out in it and the delivery to that end in in the last 3 years has been abject and hence including RH and the rest the s/p has capitulated.

Indeed the noise of recent years around oil price crash and recovery have perhaps actually saved the bod from either a takeover and/or being fired.

All that said, given the current very strong poo and resultant highly profitable and still not insignificant levels of output and given the drilling programme now in play and given the extremely healthy - and getting healthier by the month - balance sheet this share price is just significantly too low now, full stop. ( how much too low is very debatable, so no point me going there again) And therefore I've started to further average down by increment recently and at prices between 10p and 14p would continue to do so, while definitely not overcommitting.

Also, again, I say great if there is even a low ball bid of 20-25p asap as even if it's rejected it will push the s/p up and if it succeeds fine by me as it's the price of the boards abjectness/arrogance over many years.. and me getting my average price down would hopefully still see me in profit one way or other within the coming months at least.. and to even have the opportunity to walk away from this mongrel with a profit would be no small achievement in itself for me....

and have been involved in this share for many months already.. Indeed posted on II board previously but have given up on it and moved here.. Jimmy24 was an excellent poster there and I'm wondering if he posts here too..

The Irish love a good punt and I'm hoping that Irish retail investors get more and more involved here and it races on.. as already posted on this board... this still looks very cheap by plenty of measures...

Good luck to all fellow holders

A Dividend would be great here and would open this up to a far broader church of II money and PI money thus helping the s/p re rate up significantly.. but that's later year, at best.. the quickest way of getting this s/p decently up is a bid asap imho.. even one the co shareholders reject .. as it will show that someone with real money believes.. the next quickest way of getting the s/p decently up is much success in the current drilling programme....here's hoping

Generally, $85 is a very fine price p/b brent and while it may go higher it may go lower too. - lets not try and predict poo.. it'll, on average, make fools of us- lets just focus on where we are... $85 brent and s/p 13p is abject, disgustingly and scarily so.. plenty of boats have risen into this many many month old oil rally now.. Amerisur has slowly sunk into it so far: so clearly not all boats rise.. and what has happened here especially this year so far is factorially abject, this on top of abject the year before and the year before that.

Altogether I'd bite you hand off for 20p for my shares here in remainder of THIS year

(ps any serious II buyer here would quickly mop up what Rex Harbour has left now and also send shorters scurrying for cover.. truth is there is still/yet no serious buyer out there.. very hopefully that changes soon..and good drill results are the most likely short term driver .. bad ones and this could sadly go lower again from here imho )

£1 a share buy out is a billion pound company and there is two hopes of that in the next year or three : bob and no .. given that managements reputation is awful, if the current drilling campaign is über successful I grant you 20p would be too little .. but 25 -30p range p might not .. and if the current drilling campaign is average in 20-25p might do it .. if poor then 20p not a joke at all and depending on who is bidding that - eg a quality operator - it might complete .. look at current poo and already strong revenues and look at curent s/p: scary Ps in answer to question I started buying here at 28p .. luckily in small tranches ..and my average is now 18p and the position still not a very big one fior me , thankfully )