Member Info for NicetoMichu

I'm with you on results update tomorrow Dibs.. not least as Friday releases are often - but not always of course- towards trying to bad burying news ! Here's hoping and good luck to all fellow longs here !

The numbers of shares offered per existing share held is a big thing and a consolidation could indeed be bundled in a top the issue too George. Tie in period ahead of being allowed sell for existing II's who participate will be important too .. especially for Woodford if/when he significantly participates. The Chinese will have wanted it to be along the lines they have signed up to, I expect. We've already seen the s/p destruction that can occur when an II such as L&G offloaded meaningfully into an illiquid market.. appalling.. so the longer the tie ins the better and the Chinese money tie is a good one imho.. As you allude too other occurrences yet to be announced might be bundled in with this terms announcement too.. eg plans- or necessity - to delist in US or not .. listing in Asia or not ..and where therein ..and maybe some left field terms not readily envisagable that have an impact too... etc....

Not long now to find out I hope/expect... and potentially s/p action off back..

Generally, the main thing is the Asia strategic Investment is confirmed and so the going concern worries are pushed meaningfully further out now ! And more investment monies coming in off the back of the issue to existing shareholders, especially II's could help a lot here also. Fingers crossed, HOPEFULLY this becomes a good investment opportunity in the eyes of plenty of new money in the short term and rallies !!

They say a man should always dream CE. Clearly you subscribe to that philosophy. Mr Colin Bird certainly does too.

How much would such gold sales push us on towards the golden 15p by mid year target CE? .1 of a penny perhaps? :-) Ps Did you mis type and forget the decimal point between the1 and the 5 btw ? You’ve gotta laugh as it’s far more funny than crying !

and apols. for my bullishness a few days ago.. but I have been far less bullish than some here recently and previously.

I still think this co. will progress decently this year.. and the 'Ard rock remains the real prize here.

but generally here, it has indeed been the hope that kills you.. so far at least..

And we didn't have to wait long either, thankfully.

As Cavendish says the terms of the proposed placement to existing shareholders is the big unknown and we keenly await those and that might - or might not - impact current s/p meaningfully... so any real s/p action in the short term here might well happen after these terms are revealed?

My guess is the company will have consulted with existing II's such as Woodford and L&G to come up with terms/structure that will give them strong encouragement to participate significantly. And that Chinese strategic investor will have had input too to make sure they are comfortable with such terms ahead of their investment too. So while maybe good, no amazing deals either to existing Investors towards participating, I guess … and the terms, I guess, are already 'broadly' known to big players here and will be published very soon indeed.

Generally, my GUESS is that II's will participate strongly in the upcoming open offer and that - per my previous posting - L&G were downsizing previously to allow them participate with those proceeds - and book a tax write off on previous sales at a big loss - and bring down their average price hugely here via that offering and have the warrants in the bottom drawer too if this co. is to come very good in the 2020's. Woodford in not selling down previously will I GUESS participate very significantly too again to bring his average price down very significantly indeed. (And with his currently big holding that would put a chunk more money in the bank for Midatech too, which would be much appreciated and further enhance the risk profile towards encouraging future investors/punters to get involved here ? )

PI's will participate in placing to the extent the s/p off the back of the - soon to be ?- published placing terms encourages them to do so, imho..

well done to anyone who bought these in 2's or 3'p recently.. nice gain and nice to see somebody winning here too .. might even go higher again in coming days IF decent size buyer(s) about.. AND no meaningful seller ...but wtfdik.

I'd still be surprised if this goes under in the short term.. as has already been said there has been huge amounts 'invested' to bring co. this a reasonable distance so far.. so a few more tens of millions - or maybe les required - seems phathomable.. But again wtfdik.

PS: One point I didn't mention previously is asset sales are a possibility here too; they have a lot of patents on a seemingly high potential stable of drugs and technologies and altogether these were clearly valued highly when the co. came to market 4 to 5 years ago - it floated at 250p after all - and so they could focus in on a core few going forward and sell others and maybe/hopefully raise plenty of millions.

Of course the right even semi deep pocketed strategic investor here seems the optimal solution .. and with this things could look a lot brighter...and that would help the share price significantly I expect... as might just the chance of that.. and they were in advanced talks already after all...

hopefully...

Pleased that this is ticking up decently and steadily if unspectacularly recently.. if not a bit surprised it hasn't motored on more quickly, even in a gap up fashion, as both chartists and fundamentalists might well see that this has clear upward momentum now while still categorised as a very low s/p by all sorts of benchmarks. So serious buy volumes are not yet upon us here imho.. if/when they come this could gain more potent momentum .. but that might readily see a spike retrace re spike etc pattern too.. so maybe steady and incrementally would be easier on long damaged nerves of plenty already involved here :-) Whatever the pattern, this s/p could move meaningfully up from here and still be categorised as cheap by plenty including me.

PS: Good discipline for xtr to continue ticking along in a low cash burn mode in line with Sino monthly revenues for the coming months imho. That said, a raise at higher s/p levels - 3p + - for a clear bottom line reason(s) eg to get us a 'better' share of hard rock revenues in future would be fine by me.

good post Jarv and fully understood why you're now out here.

(The planning/set up phase for the next phase for MtD201 testing may take months in itself imho.. then many more months testing phase, then analysis, feedback loop etc. Also the company could park progressing this program at all for a while if needs be, towards surviving, rebasing and then progressing as appropriate. Or it might get comprehensive funding - 10 to 20 million ?? including extraordinary dilution perhaps -sorted in coming weeks maybe/hopefully and the s/p could bounce back strongly from 4p etc... who knows.. zero a possibility or 20p?? a possibility in the next 6 months perhaps... place your bets or not.)

My guess is next stage trial for MTD201 trial will now be a comprehensive, combined healthy/ill sample crossection over many month that will be expensive George. That has to be funded as does the other development activities of a firm with a stable of technologies and drugs and very little cash. The few million bridging loan I talked about in my previous post, if required, would in my mind be just for company survival while the many millions development funding is sorted from strategic investors.

After the years of 'bullishness' - with perhaps an 'it' in there too :-) - you've come up with previously on this BB George while this s/p sunk, then collapsed and then capitulated I was expecting more balance and humility from you now. I've been wrong here too and am trying to be humble and cautious for other readers here now off the back. I'd love to see similar from you, indeed factorially similar perhaps after how off you've been for so long here?

If needed, as well as a possible bridging loan from the likes of Woodford and/or other II's - and or potential other strategic investors - there are also various mechanism that the company could raise short term debt to tide themselves over for a fair few more months, I expect.

One clear potential area in my mind is that the proportion of an earnout payments associated with 2018 previously owned US business performance could perhaps be borrowed against and repaid when that money is received.. As the results of 2018 are now known and IF relevant targets have been achieved - of part achieved means part payment perhaps./hopefully - then that money will be paid by Barings to Midatech in the future? etc

Also there are many other lenders out there to approach with sundry MTPH assets to use as collateral.

Also I hope they could bring down the cash burn rate in Feb or March - and April, May etc - to buy them some more time ...

(From 20th Dec RNS :
''The Company currently has sufficient working capital for the short term to the end of Q1 2019. For the purpose of evaluating the Company's available cash runway, the Company has assumed that no element of the potential earn-out payment associated with the Sale (up to US$6million in respect of 2018 and 2019 and which is subject to the achievement by MTP US of 2018 and 2019 net sales performance targets with respect to certain MTP US products, both individually and in the aggregate), will be paid to the Company. '')

I'm guessing you're in here for many - many - 10's of thousands George Inn or maybe even more? Good luck to you particularly and you and me both too.. we may well need it.

PS : That Asia investment discussion is at least extremely advanced and while it may need to be revisited/revised off the back of this FDA feedback the discussions undertaken so far would also have been in the light of option 2 or 3 requirement being a distinct possibility. And success in this path would be far more potent than in option 1 path.

Also, while clearly the most prominent, MTD201 is definitely not the only drug they have, also their delivery technology platforms are exciting in themselves, QSphera being probably the most exciting. So in an emergency case where they couldn't get sufficient funds committed to progress the MTD201 phase 2 study in the short term, they might still get funding to keep the co. afloat and develop their other offerings at a far smaller company wide cash burn rate (and in parallel look for a partner for MTD201 next stage in a less time critical way)

There is plenty more to mtph than mtd201 and any funding achieved will be at a very - very - low s/p level indeed and so cost relatively little to get - perhaps - ‘a lot’ ( depending how highly you rate the total mtph stable of course ) obviously it would mean massive dilution for existing shareholders but at this stage the companies survival is the be all and end all ..here’s hoping

Clearly fda not saying option 1 being appropriate adds time and cost to the next phase .. but at least mtph have the feedback now and can now look to get the funding completed over the coming weeks .. hopefully they manage to do that, no guarantees they can of course and so the company could go under .. so here’s hoping for the best! . I topped up small just now in 3’s to bring my total bet here to 15k gbp and bring my average further down .. it will be one extremely generous ‘donation to medical science’’ from me if this goes to zero .. and of course if could ( and I did say 3 p possible here too previously and 0p possible too ) my instinct remains that this will not go under in 2 months time .. bwtfdik.. place your bets red or black !

Only time will tell CE and everybody is entitled to their opinion. And at least JDAU and Teacups have stopped arguing. And I'd be thrilled with a promise from them that as long the s/p goes week on week neutral or positive they'll not start another argument; that in itself would be a great achievement in the XTR world !

15p a possibility by end q2 and you saying it could be argued you are a bit of an optimist Caveat Emptor: That made me laugh out loud .. and 'a bit of an optimist' must be the understatement of the year so far on any LSE BB ?

Of course anything is possible, but I'll bet you an awful lot that 15p here within the next 5 months is not going to happen. Indeed I feel compelled to ask did you forget a decimal point i.e. 1.5p ? That would be an acceptable target in that timeframe in the circumstances imho and 3p a huge achievement in the next 5 months, and 5p an utterly incredible achievement.

altogether I think the odds are decently to strongly with us that FDA feedback will come in a timely enough fashion not to jeopardise the existence of MTPH as a going concern.

Imho of course and DYOR..

(Again, this a very high risk bet but potential upside from these extremely low s/p levels will justify a/the bet in a decent number of peoples minds, I guess )

LuckCounts?

How about of this gets to your fair value def. of 40p this year you invite everyone on this BB to your 21st birthday party? And it be wall to wall 9's there too!

I wouldn't get too concerned about the logistics of this btw as the chances of 40p here this year are slim imho.

But we all live in hope, gramted.. although on AIM it's generally the hope that kills you :-)

Feedback from the FDA is crucial asap btw.. as future funding is umbilically tied into this, I believe.

Therefore any absolute clarity on your response to quesera would be very much appreciated Jarv55? (Midatech could no longer be a going concern in just over two months time after all ! Although PERHAPS the 2018 perf. bonus element from US business sale, might come thru around then and buy them a bit longer too if required..or something else is figured out somehow, very hopefully etc..)

As some see me as too negative here I'll throw out a positive perspective here now, towards balance:

The reason L&G and other(s) II's - eg City Financial - are downsizing their holding is towards being right sized in their minds to allow them fully participate in a raise alongside that Asia Co. money raise. And therefore not only will they not be selling out completely but they may not now be selling further down from current levels/ or selling minimally further down from current levels. Thus allowing them to bring their average price way down by participating in the raise and the use the proceeds from their recent disposals towards doing so and so not increasing their exposure here in any way meaningfully to boot. And book a loss on shares already sold for 'efficient' overall tax purposes at year end too. eg If L&G average say 10p across all their sales made here over recent months and participate fully in a raise at 6 or 7p it's a win, win, win for them ( bringing their average purchase price hugely down, booking the loss on shares sold as a tax write down, and buying at a lot lower average price in Feb than they sold for in Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan)

thankfully. I was concerned about Q4 production from previous assets and it was decent, thankfully. There is indeed now huge potential here in 19 and beyond imho.. and the s/p is at least now more respectable, but it could easily be argued that it's meaningfully too low still. But I'm not that surprised as this has been a very difficult share to be in for years now and caution is engrained in the markets mind re Amerisur now.. and so the s/p ongoingly seems to have to be dragged kicking and screaming up, whatever.. and people should be cognisant of that in their future s/p predictions her also imho. eg I expect I'd be mostly out of my bet here by 30p as I think getting there will still be very hard fought .. and it really shouldn't be