Member Info for NicetoMichu

just so I'm clear Andrew:

falls for 6 weeks and buy near the end of that timeframe in anticipation of a good RNS
or
falls for 6 weeks and then a s/p negative RNS likely so don't buy until - after the fall - after the fall post that in approx.6 weeks time RNS?

Thanks
Michu

I just checked poo and it made me sadder again .. but I then looked in here and read your post stockade and it reversed my sadness a little .good post and .thanks

positives:

the co. is performing well and is profitable and is on a clear path to ongoing profit growth
the macro environment for PoO and Argentina is currently improving

negatives:

nobody with meaningful money to invest gives a damn
the share price is on a clear path to wallowing at low levels

imho

and wish I'd sold more than just half my holding at between 17p and 20p .. of course it can go lower again from here too.. but hopefully not a lot. and this may well come around again.. hopefully.. and could even go decently or even higher again in due course..

but the uber bulls on AIM are far - far - more dangerous than the shorters imho: By share price performance, the vast majority of companies on AIM sooner or later are dogs. So, on average, I'd guesstimate that nine out of 10 uber bull predictions I've seen over the years - and I'm on average 40 AIM names at a time across a lot of AIM sectors- are not just wrong but compoundly extraordinarily wrong.

wish I'd topped up more/again.. came close to at 30p but held off.. pity... haven't sold any yet though.. I think/hope 40p is doable in short-term..

this has gone up over 50% in weeks and not one other post here.. and you have oilers that are generally cra*py down and with hundreds of posts a day.. funny old world indeed..

Please don't abuse fellow posters Taff.. and as we're on the subject of brain cells, it's frightening to me that you actually pick on a guy who has sold out much higher than current s/p and could buy back in much lower now if he chooses..

...and please. please post less here.... you might even be scaring off 'investors' / potential 'investors' .. eg if that guy is long this best I stay clear.. or in my case, I want to stay long here but am tempted not to, not least as I don't want to be the same side of any trade as this guy :-)

and an insight into the arrogance of the board imho.. George thinks that's why they'll turn this into a billion dollar company.. I think such an attitude is why this s/p has gone from approx. 300p to 3 odd p. These guys have no clue how AIM works and don't seem to care either.. but they clearly believe they have huge potential in their drugs and tech. stable so there's always a chance this come mega good. While I wish I'd never heard of Mtph I'm in fairly deep now and there's now once again clearly still plenty of hope here.. but it's betting of course : you place your money or not and you hope for the best..

I’ll only sell down by increment and over many months drichi .. so I’m in here for 2019 too,. to a reasonable degree at least ..It’s not just ppc in fairness.. as bob Dudley said in a Bloomberg interview recently : ours continues to be a very unloved sector .. there are macro sentiments in play that are keeping II’s at bay generally imho .. shale can’t be helped but ceo’s of oilers are notorious for paying themselves big and having little budgetary discipline .. and ii’s have been burned too often previously ..dividends / share buybacks will be required from profitable aim oilers imho and that’s counter intuitive to management if aim oilers .. build and sell out is their model .. problem is now the sell out prices achieved are way lower than pre 2015 .. so they’re going to have to change to dividends / share buybacks at some stage ..maybe .. or else ..etc

The fall to 8.5 p shocked even a burning out on pppc punter like myself .. oil ticking up nicely and we’re at 9 p .. funny in an ironic sense..and I fancy brent to head back over 65 usd in coming weeks and ppc to still be under 10 p .. it’ll hurt a bit to dump a tranche of ppc at under 10 p but not a lot .. market rate is what it is and this could as easily be 9p as 11p even with Brent in 65 -70 range in my mind now .. very disappointing .. but less and less surprising .. imho

and makes me decently more comfortable that SR management are not boring of the wait here.. which is important in itself in my mind... I'm all for SR re-affirming their keenness on completion here to the relevant sign off authorises as intermittently appropriate.. Obviously both SR and bagir are still very much at the mercy of those signing off Chinese authorities here.. and what dictates the forthcomingness of that sign off remains whatever it is....Is that sign off more likely today than it was yesterday.. hard to say.. imho

At least the s/p has gone up a bit this morning.. a bit more could have happened too in my mind but I mostly understand a small rise only off the back of this 'marketingy' orientated RNS (eg the plant won't be given over for free unless and until the deal completes is my reading of this)

Generally, if you believe this will deal will complete there is a very good buying opportunity here imho. I am currently somewhere between somewhat and reasonably confident this deal will complete.

Name calling on top of Netflix and chill references luckcounts: repeated child like behaviour... and I hope you're not buying Amerisur shares via your mothers credit card without her knowing it.. although hiding the bills from her for as long as this share price has underperformed would be close to a full time job :-)

Again, I am long this and have been for years. I'm clearly burning out by the journey granted - and on another favourite of mine PPC too granted - and currently plan to start selling down here if/when this goes close to 25p and be gone by 30p.. although the plan can of course change.. and, generally, I hope it goes to 50p or higher and those who had the tenacity to endure the journey get great rewards.

We're all entitled to an opinion and a good bullitin board is a broad chuch balancing between bullishness and bearishnesss.. and includes no abusive posters ... and with the price targets I have being up to double current share price I'm obviously BULLISH this share.

One way or other, this s/p has been 'held down' for a large part of the last 3 plus years, you could argue guys.

Or you could just say market rate is different now across the board to pre 2015 ...and definitely not in a good way.

I don't look in her often - I've kinda accepted this s/p will be dragged up kicking and screaming only - and so apols for not responding to your response to my last post a week ago CoLDrake

You say :

Michu,

''30p might be fair or 60p might be fair or 100p might be fair. Impossible to say until AMER, ONGC and Occidental fully explore and reveal all asset resources/reserves.''

Indeed, but my point in a nutshell is what you think a fair price might be in circumstance x or y or z etc scenario might, as a medium or longterm player in the oil stock betting game, well be based on pre 2015 market rates.. these are no longer relevant and best just take somewhere between 30% to 50% off them for current day equiv. market rates. Cove is from a different oil paradigm and the price achieved ridiculously high and not relevant by todays standards.

It's now the shale world paradigm where oil reserves are factorially enormous... and many long term punters are slow to get their heads around this new paradigm.

Brent averaged over $70 last year and went well into the $80's for a while and I again ask you for one eg of a takeover at anywhere pre 2015 market rate last year?

Again, I have high hopes for very significant Amerisur reserve growth and production growth in the next 18 months .. and those hopes will need to at least mostly materialise for 30p to be achieved as a buy out price in 2021 is my opinion. With the excellent fundamentals here, excellent potential here and clear pathway to way higher highly profitable again here that we now all clearly see the s/p is 16 odd p.... as in SIXTEEN odd pence

This s/p and most every other s/p I hold - say 25 oilers at a given time - strongly back up my point and have done for a meaningful time now (and I bet i hold many of posters here best tips)

We need a good RNS for Manica 'ard rock development progress soon... by comparison this is fluff or even noise and very hopefully not a plan B because the Manica project is generally not progressing well.

This seems a reasonable agreement for this exploratory work, granted.

If there is good progress soon announced at Manica there then this s/p can turn around decently and quickly.. and Mr Bird can then strive for three good RNS's in a row.. a small miracle that would be... if not good progress on Manica this s/p will retrace decently imho

Place your bets.. etc..

I am surprised and disapointed it wasn't announced at or around the same time as the big deal last week.. it was in the queue from about the same time.

If because of its conceptual basis it's dependent on a new China/US Trade deal then I'm worried because I thought that would complete in March .. I now don't... but as a +uck you message to America, China authorities may pass a bunch of pending deals like this … so who knows

Generally, this is a peanuts deal for SR and if its going to be held up by authorities for strategic reasons SR may just say forget about it.. or simply it has gotten annoying as it's already a year since announcement and its still not complete and SR management just bored of it all

PS

One for you Taff:

If SR buy in goes thru I believe this will go to at least 2.5p asap and if/when they announce a good contract or three off the back of buy in I believe this could go to 5p to 10p readily.

I promise you I'm long here .. half as long as I used be granted.. and I made a profit on what I sold months back.. look at my history here for the full picture.

Speaking of fun at parties, I think you're a funny guy Taff.. indeed anybody who says they're 100% sure of anything on AIM is hilarious imho

Good luck to all longs here.. if this horse comes in we will coin it (I did great on boohoo and was looking for the next big thing in the space .. and when I heard this SR announcement first thought I'd found it here.. it can still end great.. hopefully.. but odds have diminished and continue to do so, perhaps.. but hopefully not )

''since the Nasdaq listing is of utmost importance more so than AIM''

Why do you say that George? The big II's are UK based and now Asia based too. The US business has now been sold.

Retail Investors are only very minorly relevant in the new massively enlarged shares in issue paradigm imho.. and further exacerbated by pi's taking up little or nothing from the offer, I expect.. (unless s/p goes back up decently ahead of pi offer complete date)

My guess is that there is no news from mtph to give to bring the s/p up hugely in the short term and so the Nasdaq listing will cease.. end of. ( US PI shareholders can get an Intl broker and trade the AIM listing or else sell at market rate and walk away.. Nasdaq listing cease might bring down s/p a bit further again granted.. but its so joke low now that another bit off is a so what in my mind.. also it's not mtph deciding to leave Nasdaq, they're being forced off by exchange rules because their share price has performed factorially appallingly.. so no class action imho)

ps : my 20p by summer - hopeful - guess is all about II money coming in or very rich PI's buying large.. 5k buys here or there from average PI won't hurt but it'll need bigger buys for this to double triple etc now.. imho.. and 10p by summer would be amazing also imho .. in fact I'll guess 10p by summer instead of 20p now :-)

all towards balance on the BB Taff ….and the only thing I'm 100% sure of in life is death :-)

I'm long here and really want this Ruyi deal to complete and while it could of course complete and very hopefully does, also it may not. As I've previously said here, I see this going to .7p if SR are in effect forced be regulator to walk away...and as the vast majority of posts here are from the this is going to the stars brigade I see no harm in mentioning that as well as double/ triple etc your money you could half etc it too .. hopefully, most who have played AIM for any length of time understand this already, and indeed halving your money not bad at all for plenty of stocks on the cesspit that is AIM :-)

PS : the financial performance of this stock on its own has been awful and the share price collapse and then capitalisation reflects this... it has recently had a couple of decent/good quarters in fairness.... not for the first time.. but it has not had a good year ever and it's turnover has halved since coming to market.. so the Ruyi takeover is much needed here, I think...that said it has cleared its debt and would not go under quickly without it, whatever.

argument without the e, apols…

fmi who are you thinking would step in if Ruyi didn't Markdods please ?

To help out here - if help is required, hopefully it isn't, of course -I'd very much like a new trade deal between US and China asap.. but Trump seems to be back peddling somewhat recently, including today.. a pity.. but that can change back to something more positive soon, hopefully

Blackadder? (Captain Bob Baldrick.....Colin Blackadder Bird)

Captain Bob ? :-)