Member Info for NicetoMichu

The exit of a decent portion of day traders here ?

divide by 2 instead of multiply by 2 ?

after endless misery, at last some fun here... and having started to buy here in the 60p's a few years back and having spent intervening years painfully getting averaging down to 10p I couldn't help sell good tranches of my position in 11's p and 10's p first thing this morning.. sorry George :-) ...in context, a couple of months or so ago I thought I could be writing off my full gbp 15k bets here.. funny olde world.. and mtph is absolutely not for the feint hearted!

I'm still left with an almost half decent position and understand this is still a very low s/p versus past levels... peaked at around 300p a few months after coming to market at approx. 250p about 5 years ago if I' m not mistaken.. but huge dilution in between times so those no's are pretty meaningless now .. but obviously could be large/very large upside from 10p still … indeed if the drugs and tech comes in well this could get to three figures p some time in the future imho.. but it could be Buck all too if they don't.. and it eats cash towards developing its pipeline..these are the - extreme - games we play..

Ps: north of 10p at end of play today would be a good achievement imho..

and I feel confident in saying that there is only one mugambokhushhua... and I offer if it's good enough for mugambokhushhua then it will hopefully be good enough for a thousand more like him...

as well as mugamB being here now I also offer that from these levels there may be more fun to come.. hopefully.. but who knows.. DYOR

ironically I hardly ever have lunch time pints but did today.. and came back to see this roar.. were you down the Inn too this lunchtime George? maybe we both should do more lunchtime drinking towards getting this back to double figures ! (''10 p by summer'' !? or March even :-) )

Ethiopia is cheaper labour and lower tariffs - than from china - for selling into developed markets, not least the US ?

And the Chinese authorities are sensitive to anything that conceptually could be used as an eg of China trying to game America at this time... even something as seemingly minute in size as this deal because it could be perceived as the tip of an iceberg is my guess too... if/when the China/US trade deal completes their sensitivity will dissipate markedly.. and so this deal will then - hopefully - get authority sign off..... is my guess..

cheaper labour stands whatever and lower tariffs extremely likely still stands in context of the new deal that will hopefully soon be signed by China /US.. indeed China might - have to - accept slightly higher tarrifs on clothes they sell into US as part of this new deal.. thus making the Bagir deal more compelling again for SR..

''if the new investors had just bought in the open market the proceeds would not have gone to the company ..
The additional cash will of course benefit the the company and its current strategy..''

indeed kramsnib and good point..

But that was said about the raise a few years back and where is the s/p now by comparison....hopefully not deja vu this time... and I'm not the only one to think that I guess... as big smoke perhaps aptly said.. 'oh dear .. here we go again.. '

I invest/bet to make money and I've been in this for approx. 3 years now and the s/p performance has been very average in that time in my opinion.. and that's in the context of the company progressing well in at least the recent year plus now.. so I now consider this an average to bad bet on my part.. but the nature of the game is some good some bad bets and you hope over the piece the goods outweigh the bads..

Generally, this s/p may well come meaningfully good at some stage .. but it may not.. or, most likely I think, is it be dragged slowly, kicking and screaming, up.... not least is it's market cap., in context, is not a small number even now.. So I'm no longer even half way excited by this stock.. whereas a year plus ago I was significantly excited.. and I will post less and less here going forward.. but will sell out slowly .. just in case..

good luck to all fellow holders..

now looks like US and China will agree a deal in coming weeks.. hopefully nothing scuppers this..

and that explains todays bagr rise imho.. and so it should rise today.. if that deal completes the likelihood of this completing goes up meaningfully imho.. here's hoping..

stay the same is my prediction !

Been in here for too long but have thankfully sold plenty down at higher levels and so losses so far not distressing.. still hoping..

generally, understand this to be a dog.. but every dog has its day, allegedly .. even if a dead cat bounce....not to mind explaining this abject s/p ...how can anyone explain such mixed metaphors.. the dog having killed the cat and bouncing it for a bit before it gets bored of it, perhaps :-)

a bit surprised by this .. but not particularly disappointed.. explains why s/p has come off recently too.... it's a small raise relative to m/c .. approx. 7% … and it's to move revenue growth forward more quickly again and so can be seen as reasonably meritful imho...my top of the heads maths say very approx. gbp 2m debt converted by PL to equity..so not meaningful in bringing down debt but its a start there too......

raises and AIM go together like bread and butter.. and it's often pitched as 'keen' interest from new investors to get involved.. well, if they're 'keen' why can't they buy in open market then and push up the s/p....instead of getting in at a discount and lowering the s/p ?? that's AIM for you !!

generally, output including gas is targeted be up decently this year but not as - 6000 bopde - decently as some people here hoped ? So 12p s/p here this year would be a great achievement now imho but reasonably unlikely now too imho.. 10p even would be fine by me..

this is becoming a lower priority stock for me now .. and I expect I'll continue to sell down small amounts by increment here as we go..

fair enough Brasso and I should have checked before saying he could buy moreon the open market.. I have checked now and see he has approx.29.9 per cent already and so can't increase without making a bid for co... as per fiveeights posts him trying to take ppc private is of course possible.. but, again, my guess is he wouldn't try that in coming year or two at least...

(altogether, I'm falling out of like with this share.. alas.. and will probably continue selling slowly down..)

interesting fiveeights and has opened a different avenue of thinking for me .. thank you .. I'd bite your hand off for 12.5p and might stop selling down to boot even in hope..

my gut tells me two things at this moment :

1) that won't happen : the co. can readily do raises etc on AIM .. and PL could slowly accumulate a good chunk more - again- on the open market/grey market ahead of pushing the s/p to even close 12.5p

2) I didn't include you in the PL/II 70% holding thread with Brasso because my instinct told me you had something about you..

If schroders bought some and the s/p goes down then there was an active seller out there, clearly - and even if MM is 'facilitating' by providing some per cent of that from own book stock it's still selling -.. and very likely PL/II too imho..

maybe such an II seller is onboard with your concerns about 75% PL/II ownership brasso and so are selling down... and as few long only PI's care about buying this share thankfully schroders did/do.. indeed if it wasn't for schroders perhaps we'd be at 7p now.. and if you think say 60% in PL/II hands is a more desirable number and PL/II's agree I'm thinking 4p is a good target price here ?

''Aim doesn't suit many successful companies but it does provide early start up funds''

Absolutely... no need for successful co's to tap AIM as they'll find monies either from profits or other sources such as lending, venture capital etc... and so steer far clear of the manipulative s/p decimating cesspit that is AIM.

Those who do list on AIM are not just early funds requirees but regular funds requirees firms generally.. and for the occasional AIM success there multiple failures... and many of these as endlessly as possible tap up punters to feed their executives lifestyle while keeping their dreams of their co. cracking it alive ..

The ratios of outperform to underperform on AIM are appalling.. eg north of 80% of co's on it don't make a profit on a given year...and shorting kills the AIM model too.. AIM is a broken market and LSE are afraid to do anything about it as it remains a very nice fee earner for them.. problem is they're running out of LONG ONLY mug investors/punters - and long II's are often the biggest burned - as so many are giving up participating... and that exacerbates further an already messy situation...

All seem to agree this is already an illiquid stock.

The upside of illiquidity is that buys outweighing sells by not that much can have a decent upward effect on s/p relatively quickly (and the opposite for more sells than buys bringing down s/p too of course) I'm hoping/guessing all agree with this too ?

Even in the face of clear progress and clear likely further progress and good recent upticks in PoO the share price steadfastly refuses to go up.. so far .. indeed it's going down a little currently ..
Why might that be ? Because there is buck all buying going on, I suggest.. and MM's 'manipulation' thru wide spread readily happens because there is buck all buying going on, I suggest

So if an II or two wants to buy say a million or two quids worth of ppc shares and given so little shares freely available this will push up the s/p decently or very decently.. I guess all will agree ?

But you don't want this Brasso? Everybody is of course entitled to their opinion, but that truly amazes me! (You are actually long and not short this share Brasso btw ? :-) )

Generally, fewer and fewer LONG ONLY PI's play AIM and for smaller and smaller amounts because it's a cesspit where far far more shares go down than up.. so, including Argentina listing not happening in the short term, to get say a couple of million quid invested/bet out of new PI's longs ppc is very unlikely imho ..

And a share buyback - and/or dividend - by ppc is not going to happen in coming 18+ months at least imho as profits being used for other purposes, acquisition, work overs for eg and hopefully including paying down some debt, although I wouldn't bet on that

So II's buying some more asap, be that existing topping up or new is a GREAT idea in my mind as the s/p is likely to go up decently from 8.something p off the back...I play this game towards making money and not losing it.. others maybe not perhaps? and what a great place AIM is to play on to that end, in fairness.

I agree the s/p is too low but it's becoming clearer to me more and more that it's not massively too low in the new shale world paradigm: ppc market cap is, even at these s/p levels, gbp 90m +

12p for this would now be a good achievement in next 18 months imho and 15p an excellent achievement in same time frames (as pointed out by brasso: debt is not small and Argentina is Argentina and good sized new money in open market would be buying into an illiquid share where any meaningful size would push s/p up decently/quickly.. and as I mentioned PL's domination including high rate loans etc will put some off too)

ps; I have sold some of my position down here and will perhaps/likely sell some more and some more again as we go.. that plan can of course change..

if very few shares available for sale because tightly held by existing PL/II holders then fresh II's demand, even a small amount, will have a very strong - upward - effect on s/p ??

DEMAND is required to the push price up !! PI's are clearly not even nearly coming up with levels of demand required.

Theoretically, at current PL/II hold levels there's already a liquidity problem .. so that ship has long sailed.. and if those holders sell shares onto the market at this time they'll clearly sink the s/p further? We need NO MEANINGDFUL SELLING AND FRESH MEANINGFUL DEMAND ?

Pro's and cons of options reasonably well discussed already here imho.

One point I'd like to add:

re:

''Imagine effect on SP if he tried buying 10 million shares on open market, to do that there is no positive financial gain for the company''

Indeed the s/p would rally significantly, and the lovely rally would give financial gain to shareholders, short term at least.

So Mr Bird / Siberstein etc now you've set up your tasty options program how about also buying a decent tranche in the open market at current low s/p levels out of your own wealthy pockets towards pushing the s/p up via those purchases themselves and hopefully further up again via the positive/confident message it's putting out there. (and thus getting closer to in the money options for yourselves to boot)

Ps: Exercising options at levels outlined is all new shares and is dilatative and so the s/p even staying the same at time of exercises is actually equivalent to it having gone up to make up for the dilution.. so it might actually go down at times of exercises just to stay evens with pre dilution levels... but a whole lot of others factors in play at those times will of course dictate s/p movements/ levels too of course.

have got take clear feedback from INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS on what they require to Invest - anew or more again - in this company and as best and quickly as they can implement things that make this a more attractive investment proposition to II's.. even if this takes time they have to set out clear, meaningful and achievable plans to these ends and be seen to be implementing then asap. (PL will tell you he is doing this already by concentrating on profitability and free cash flow and I'll tell him he's started the process only and needs to do more again and again.. and a very simple eg is II's think he'll likely spend any profitability or free cash flow inefficiently.. as history has shown here - pre 2017/8 anyway - and generally)

bring down debt - especially to PL dominated lenders that charge tasty interest rates - and openly commit to work towards a dividend in 2020/21 is something I think they'll be told will help ..and look to grow production steadily and cost efficiently - including bringing further down cost per barrel of existing production - more than spectacularly is another thing he'll be told I'd guess (eg farm out significant partner for Paraguay or leave parked for a few more years) and PL to cede more control generally is another thing they'll be saying I guess.. eg him dominating most everything to do with PPC from ownership/debt/strategy/implementation etc.., seemingly..

and before anyone shouts back to me this is a growth co. and it's on AIM and the rules are that has to build reserves and production significantly and asap as an absolute top priority because that's how AIM oilers work .. well AIM oilers s/p , on average and not least this one, sure as hell aren't working in recent years and so some/many of the old ways needs to change here and generally for AIM oilers asap.... this is the shale world paradigm and it's very different than even 5 years ago.. so adapt hard and quick or wallow/decline.. imho.. ( I did post similar here three and two years ago, but not in 2018 though as I saw improvement in profitability and free cash flow and so said to myself to be patient.. well patience has gotten investors nowhere here so far, so more needs to change and more quickly again is clear from the s/p performance is my current opinion )

Jointhedots..

I absolutely agree they do not always act as impassive brokers merely making money on the spread.. on the rare occasions when meaningful size positions end up on their books for even a half decent period of time I have no doubt they will do all sorts of gamesmanship to manage/unwind those to their best advantage.. but their primary goal is to match buys with sells as much and as quickly as possible and the spread is a very powerful tool to help them do this while making very tidy turns to boot.. widening..tightening etc..

Also I understand that if market makers end up with a technically reportable position - eg more than 3 per cent either side- that arises through fulfilling their market making responsibilities they are exempt from reporting it .. and I understand it could perhaps reach 10% for very small cap illiquid names where news results in an all of a sudden large imbalance in trades on one side or the other .. but to proactively build a large position on their MM book that is not tied in with their MM role is a different thing and while there's maybe some possibility to use inherent greyness here to some small extent if it's in any way blatant regulators would be all over them and they'd quickly have their MM licence revoked imho..

I also agree that there could be a rump long holding across a few MM from facilitating RH exit here.. but at very least I expect that's mostly been long unworked now.. and even at its peak back when, across all MM in this name, I'd be amazed if it's even vaguely close to 3% for a co. with the MC Amerisur has; MM senior managers/risk managers just wouldn't let their books be that exposed imho..

Ps: imho you're a top poster here - on a BB that has a lot of high quality detail being posted too- and please keep up the good work.. and generally if this one doesn't come good then there seems more or less no hope being long AIM oilers imho .. and not only am I long loads of AIM oilers, this is actually my biggest long of the lot.. and more or less the longest held.. oh the irony..

If there are big buyers at 17p then there are big sellers at 17p too.. or else the price goes up.. even though plenty here can't believe there could be large sellers at 17p in this 'amazing opportunity' - in their eyes - stock, there are.

There is no doubt fiddling, manipulation at the edges by MM's.. but it's nothing like as all consuming as some here want to believe (the debate on market makers power/role here and elsewhere has been done to death before and bottom line is a turn via the spread is their game, sure they're sometimes at risk because they have to make prices and can get flooded on one side and not have immediate other sides to match those trades on their books with and sure they do what they have to do to unwind such risk as effectively for them as possible but on a scheme of things it's short term noise only)

It's the BIG Institutional Investor money that the key driver of S/P, factorially:

i.e.

1) Current large Institutional Investor money leaving the sector (what's leaving is peanuts vrs FUM for them but has huge impact on small and mid cap oilers)
2) FRESH long Institutional not incoming to the Sector to replace the outflows
3) Hedge funds shorting off the back to push against an open door

is miles more significant than any MM manipulation

Forget the conspiracy theories.. this is currently a very unloved sector by Institutional money is the problem.

But this can change and if it does, and while still peanuts for those II's on their scheme of things, a bunch of them adding even tiny amount to their sector exposure instead of subtracting a tiny amount could have a huge effect on this s/p QUICKLY.