Member Info for NicetoMichu

do you think if you predicted 20p today Gilo , and retour du renard punched back with 25p today, that would help?

is the return of Retour_du_reynard

where is da man? Gilo gilo is in the house today... get yourself in the house retour.. we need da full house here?

time share for me : I've never owned a share that has gone down so much .. say 99% from approx. peak to trough.. as in 300p to 3p approx.. so plenty of room for upside on the come back I expect/hope

good to see some of the trader gang back , not least mugambokhushhua….. a name like that turning up here again has got to be worth 1p or more on the s/p here ? :-) and it's lovely Friday.. hopefully a boom boom Friday ..

how old are those price targets from Panmure and N+1 singer Chef ? ('Very' is my guess:-).. and the extrodinary level of dilution in recent raise renders them completey redundant is my guess... but very happy to be wrong here.. )

Ps: I'd bite your hand off for 20p by summer here :-)

the share price will go up meaningfully if/when production - and reserves to an extent - goes up meaningfully imho. there seems to me a very good chance production will go and a good chance it will go up meaningfully this year and next.. but nothing is certain.. here's hoping production increases asap and meaningfully.

indeed.. seems like another delay is very - very - likely now.. and I'd be happy even if this completed sometime in May... but I'm confident it will complete.. so I'll just sit on my position and wait.. if SAVP is good enough for Kalan it's good enough for me !

last post to stockable btw

from your posting on the President BB I believe you to be one of the best posters I've come across on any oiler BB so far and hear you on your fine below post.. but I think you're a bit too bearish on this.. and that's from a guy who nobody here would ever call too bullish on Amerisur :-)

While this was previously going badly for a few consecutive years, I see real potential again here now and believe that production has a good chance of growing out decently here this year and next. and the financial fundaments are very very sound here.. given that and where this s/p was previously, I can see 20's p here somewhat readily and any t/o offer reasonably readily in mid 20's p or above...

and the s/p is rising nicely too.. which sadly isn't easy to find for AIM oliers these days, even against a now good PoO backdrop

have been in this a long time but never in good size.. and have dumped plenty on way down previously too.. and was well under water on what I had left but have added a few more tranches in recent months and averaged down nicely to boot... so, as well as now starting to be a meaningful bet for me I'm in profit as I type ... miraculously for me, given the fall from previous grace here :-)

I understand this to be a trading share too, at least for some of my position.. but hoping for some more upside before I start sell down some by increment.. given the historic s/p levels and even including much dilution I think circa 35-40p might be achievable in anticipation/hope of big Alaska strike in the not too distant..

obviously of that strike happens then much more upside.. and if not massive tanking of course.. as is the nature of game.. but trading the in anticipation rise can also be a game in itself..

so 35p by Friday... but no idea which Friday :-)

Some interesting and balanced debate here recently is much appreciated from my end....and far better than the, on average here of, one bull out bulling the next.. imho

This duster will be forgotten soon enough though and hopefully good progress will kick back in soon enough too. But agree the s/p might show a bit more weakness in coming hours/days/weeks. That said, in a range of approx. 10 to 70p whether it goes to 12's p or 15's p in short term is no biggie either way in my mind.. btw I'd be surprised if it goes into 12's p and would top up if it did.

Alas, the macro play out here - and of course on AIM generally - remains one where share price goes up at tube station side 'emergency' stairs speed on good news and comes down at new generation fast lifts speed in same tube station on bad news.. and multi factorially more AIM participants do tube station lifts over stairs.

(I was going to use Uber with that previous factorially as it's a favourite word of mine.. almost as favourite as factorially indeed, but uber in same sentence as tube station might be perceived as a mixed metaphor, and that within a bearish sentence might see the expletives rain down from a few here :-))

I hope it wasn't redt you got into bigbitenow ? Towards getting away from - painfully in 2018 and 19 although not in 16 and 17 in fairness - too many long oiler positions in my p/f I started to fiddle in alternatives - small positions only to begin with to figure things out - and it has been a bit of a car crash so far.. indeed Amerisur look like a good bet by comparison by me :-)

thanks for your response bigbitenow and all fair and reasonable in it imho..

As ever, very high quality micro posting generally here.. thanks all.

Generally, it's a pity that II's plays here and widely elsewhere in the sector are such huge drivers of s/p .. altogether, it's clearly a very unloved sector by II's at this time and therefore a painful time to be long this sector generally.. and many here just don't want to speak about that truth imho... but things can change and do... and I'd love it if there was even a small shift by long II money back into this sector.

what words in my post are poor and uncalled for exactly bigbitenow ?

If its the bullying bulls being a disgrace i note that I have been callled a c+nt and r+tard on this board for not being as bullish as some uber bulls (the recently converted to Amerisur bear, luck counts 'uber' ironically calling me the latter)

if it's wording around uber bulls calls costing you, on average, more money than shorters calls on AIM I re iterate that again here: far more stocks go down than up on AIM in a given year, not least because north of 80% of names on AIM are not profitable in a given year. (aside: the shorters often won't inspire you with great company insights .. they don't have to as the laws of averages are on their side on AIM.. and using the laws of averages is their game... and successful gambling over the piece is about the laws of averages.. as casino owners are living proof of.. and AIM is absolutely a casino)

I respect your knowledge and quality of posting here and from what you post as targets just now I offer that we are not a long way off on our targets here.. as I've said pretty often - and very consistently - here I'd very likely be fully out of this by around 30p .. if that were to happen.. hopefully it does...

ps: people here shouldn't forget that some were buying in here at 50 or 60 or 70p a few years.. subsequently, and against a strongly rising PoO the s/p performance here has been abysmal.... indeed, in those years, much worse than so many other decently producing oliers... and things like that do actually happen for a reason.. but hopefully a new chapter has been turned here.. I hope and think it has ..

oh well.. nature of the game .. and a blip on a scheme of things, hopefully ….and the race is long etc..

but the first quote I was offered of 13.5 to sell was shockingly low.... back to 14's as I type .. I would have sold a small tranche at over 15p granted but sold none in 13'sp / 14's p as over done imho.. and it would take under 12p to see me top up instead mind...

Also they could have told us this duster news MUCH earlier imho.. and - again - I respect management less for this.

The talked about 50p or 75p or £1 targets seem a long, long, long way away at this time.. but everyone is of course entitled to their opinion and anything is possible ... although seasoned AIM players might agree with me when I offer that listening to the uber bulls, on average, costs you the most money on AIM, and the bullying bulls amongst them are far more disgraceful than any shorter I've come across.

fine post imho big bite now.. one small disagreement I'd offer is that reporting a dry well on calao-1 might well have a decent short term negative impact on s/p here imho.. granted, on a medium term perspective, that might be but a blip.. and the broader colour/learnings from the drill and the extent of it being more wider field dimensions defining than a make or break event in itself could hopefully mean that s/p down movement might be fairly limited*

* : trust in management is a very important thing in AIM oilers and there has been a number of years undermining that here, operationally at least, unfortunately.. and it clearly takes plenty of good news over time to change the mood music back to positive here..so dry drill could be a punchy enough short term hit on s/p ...also, to be slow/late feeding back and that feedback being bad news would be a double whammy... and decent II selling off the back of such a double whammy would be understandable imho.. so here's hoping for good news and soon !

''the management at MTPH seems to be sure bet that 50p will be attainable''

Like you from the get go here, management dream George, that's what they do :-)

The reality is usually very different, and on AIM, from my experience, approx. 4 times out of 5 times it's different in NOT a good way.. as exampled here in the disgraceful s/p performance so far, resulting in long term mtph shareholder wealth destruction on an epic scale, from first listing approx. 5 years ago to current date.

If/when a book is set up to allow intertradability between ADR's and common stock, my opinion is that, in the absence of other news, so things staying as they currently are, the ADR's will come down a lot more than common stock will come up.. so, alas, it won't be anywhere close to even meeting in the middle, imho, but that's not to say common stock can't go up a bit/somewhat off the back of intertradability.

Generally, it's very clear to me how this s/p can go meaningfully up: management release news that allow potential new money here see good - even potential - bottom line improvement versus current s/p . and given the current s/p is abysmally low versus historic levels and new money from a quality 'partner' has now been 'invested' to give the chance of driving the business forward, I see plenty of opportunity for management to release news that will push this s/p up in the coming months, at least

Here's hoping..

any serious II selling will tank this s/p further imho.... here's hoping the recently RNS'd selling is just some fiddling around the edges.. if meaningful further sell down of that holding from here then 1p or less is readily doable here imho..

Whatever, I'm staying long and strong here though .. thru April, at least.. and would love a US / China trade deal to complete in April. Also as we're a lot closer to the bottom of my guessed possible 3 month s/p range here - .7p to 3.5p+ - I still feel compelled to hold and hope..

here this year was Brasso's of a few weeks back, soon after the last placing:

''By my calculations they have now done 11 placings since PL came on board in 2009 raising $210m (£158m). PL to his credit has put in close to 30% of that.
With the new shares being issued next week and a share price of 8p the market cap. of the company will be ~£90m and we have gone from having no debt to $30m.''

That shocked me and I sold down quicker again off the back and am currently holding less than 40% of my max. size here..I wouldn't call this a dog by AIM standards - as there are there are endless mongrels on AIM - but, including growing debt, where it's now at versus all those raises, is not a long way off that status imho .. very disappointed in this and would only buy back some I sold in the 5's p now, as the mkt cap. at 7p is, in context, still not an insignificant no imho..

Are the warrants not associated with the newly issued AIM shares for recent capital raise only and nothing to do with the US listed ADR's.. i.e. there are NO warrants associated with mtph ADR's ?